Mets “Seriously Considering” Noah Syndergaard Trade Scenarios

[Second Base]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Barria, Heaney, Marsh and Rengifo.  I doubt it gets the deal done, but it is two top 100 prospects (I think Marsh is top 100) and two arms that can be in the rotation now that are both young and controllable.  

It doesn't get it done, and I don't thin, there are two top 100's there. Marsh is top 100 on some lists, but no one has Rengifo in their top 100.

[Stradling]

Just now, Second Base said:

It doesn't get it done, and I don't thin, there are two top 100's there. Marsh is top 100 on some lists, but no one has Rengifo in their top 100.

Oh man, I thought he made it this year.  Maybe I am confusing it with a top performer list or something like that. 

[Second Base]

Just now, Stradling said:

Oh man, I thought he made it this year.  Maybe I am confusing it with a top performer list or something like that. 

I feel a site had Luis Rengifo in their top 100, I'd suddenly have a newfound respect for them. The Angels farm doesn't get the attention others do like the Yanks, Sox, Cubs or Cards, and most sites focus almost implicitly on upside, which means lots of homeruns or velocity at a very young age. 

If a site were to step out and rank a lesser known prospect from a lesser focused on farm system that doesn't project to have a ton of power in their top 100, it would show a greater understanding, ingenuity and impressive amount of resources at their disposal to unearth a guy like that. 

I mean if Rengifo plays up to his ability, you're looking at a great defensive 2B that hits .300 with a .400 OBP and 30+ SB. Obviously an all-star. Not in my wildest dreams do I even dare predict that sort of outcome for him, but that's the sort of upside you just don't see. A contact hitter with plate discipline and defense. Not as sexy as HR's. 

So if a site went out on a limb and did that, I'd have much respect for them. But guaranteed, that's not going to happen. As much information major publications present, they lack creativity. 

[wopphil]

11 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Barria, Heaney, Marsh and Rengifo.  I doubt it gets the deal done, but it is two top 100 prospects (I think Marsh is top 100) and two arms that can be in the rotation now that are both young and controllable.  

Strad, you are typically a voice of reason, but this is an insane proposal. No way do you give up both Heaney and Barria, plus the two prospects.

[Stradling]

11 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Strad, you are typically a voice of reason, but this is an insane proposal. No way do you give up both Heaney and Barria, plus the two prospects.

I know what you are saying, but I was looking for a way to get him without giving up either Canning or Adell.  If you give up Rengifo you still have Jones and Fletcher.  If you give up Marsh you still have Adell, and all of the other recently drafted OFers.  It is a steep price, but it gets you a guy that has Ace stuff, is under control for 3 years and is young.  It hurts your rotation, but it doesn’t kill your farm.  What is crazy is a deal like this still likely doesn’t get it done.  

[Stradling]

I guess what I look at is what does a rotation look like when you start with Syndergaard and Ohtani?  Then you have free agent signing, Skaggs and Canning round out the rotation in 2020.  

[ettin]

57 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Barria, Heaney, Marsh and Rengifo.  I doubt it gets the deal done, but it is two top 100 prospects (I think Marsh is top 100) and two arms that can be in the rotation now that are both young and controllable.  

 

44 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Strad, you are typically a voice of reason, but this is an insane proposal. No way do you give up both Heaney and Barria, plus the two prospects.

@Stradling I think you may be vastly underestimating Heaney's value here. He has three years of team control and is a solid #3 starter.

Right now, based on Syndergaard's arbitration raises, he will make approximately $36M over the next three years. If you assume he will be a 4.3 WAR player per year that is about $90M-100M in surplus value. Heaney has about $60M in surplus value because he is projected to make about $16M-17M over the same three years on the assumption he is a 2.5 WAR player per season.

I really think that if the Mets want to compete in 2019 flipping Noah for at least one MLB player (or more) would be a way for them to fill holes. The Angels could offer a package of Andrew Heaney, Blake Parker, and a couple of prospects like Brandon Marsh and a lower level guy like Trent Deveaux as an example. That would fill our top of the rotation hole and we can fill the mid-rotation hole via free agency and the same for a reliever if necessary.

Everything relies on the Mets intentions to compete though and finding a deal that makes sense on both side of course.

[Second Base]

27 minutes ago, ettin said:

 

@Stradling I think you may be vastly underestimating Heaney's value here. He has three years of team control and is a solid #3 starter.

Right now, based on Syndergaard's arbitration raises, he will make approximately $36M over the next three years. If you assume he will be a 4.3 WAR player per year that is about $90M-100M in surplus value. Heaney has about $60M in surplus value because he is projected to make about $16M-17M over the same three years on the assumption he is a 2.5 WAR player per season.

I really think that if the Mets want to compete in 2019 flipping Noah for at least one MLB player (or more) would be a way for them to fill holes. The Angels could offer a package of Andrew Heaney, Blake Parker, and a couple of prospects like Brandon Marsh and a lower level guy like Trent Deveaux as an example. That would fill our top of the rotation hole and we can fill the mid-rotation hole via free agency and the same for a reliever if necessary.

Everything relies on the Mets intentions to compete though and finding a deal that makes sense on both side of course.

I feel like the whole competing in 2019 is a smokescreen for the Mets. I mean yes, they have an insanely talented roster, but they can't stay healthy, have an aging star and not much in the way of a farm system, a lot like the Angels 2 years ago.

Eppler said he was planning to compete the whole time too. Truth was and is, that he was rebuilding the farm without trading his top talent unless it was an expiring contract at the trade deadline. 

So yeah. The Mets do want to compete, but more importantly they want to rebuild. Van Wagonen will infuse just enough talent on their roster that if things break right, they'll be in the playoffs, but they won't be trading for or signing any major stars.

Also, Andrew Heaney, Brandon Marsh and Trent Deveaux would be a package that 20 other teams would outbid. The Angels gave the prospects to outbid everyone else, but we all know they won't use them.

[TroutField]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

I feel like the whole competing in 2019 is a smokescreen for the Mets. I mean yes, they have an insanely talented roster, but they can't stay healthy, have an aging star and not much in the way of a farm system, a lot like the Angels 2 years ago.

Eppler said he was planning to compete the whole time too. Truth was and is, that he was rebuilding the farm without trading his top talent unless it was an expiring contract at the trade deadline. 

So yeah. The Mets do want to compete, but more importantly they want to rebuild. Van Wagonen will infuse just enough talent on their roster that if things break right, they'll be in the playoffs, but they won't be trading for or signing any major stars.

Also, Andrew Heaney, Brandon Marsh and Trent Deveaux would be a package that 20 other teams would outbid. The Angels gave the prospects to outbid everyone else, but we all know they won't use them.

Nor should they, we aren’t 1 good injury prone starter away from being AL west champs 

[ettin]

13 hours ago, Second Base said:

I feel like the whole competing in 2019 is a smokescreen for the Mets. I mean yes, they have an insanely talented roster, but they can't stay healthy, have an aging star and not much in the way of a farm system, a lot like the Angels 2 years ago.

Eppler said he was planning to compete the whole time too. Truth was and is, that he was rebuilding the farm without trading his top talent unless it was an expiring contract at the trade deadline. 

So yeah. The Mets do want to compete, but more importantly they want to rebuild. Van Wagonen will infuse just enough talent on their roster that if things break right, they'll be in the playoffs, but they won't be trading for or signing any major stars.

Also, Andrew Heaney, Brandon Marsh and Trent Deveaux would be a package that 20 other teams would outbid. The Angels gave the prospects to outbid everyone else, but we all know they won't use them.

There are certainly other teams that could offer prospect packages that are better than what we could probably give, Scotty. Part of my point is that under the assumption the Mets want to compete in 2019 they need to add MLB-ready pieces of which we do have with Heaney having the most value out of all of our pitchers except for Ohtani. Losing Syndergaard is a hole they have to fill and acquiring a solid mid-rotation starter back helps them achieve that presumed goal.

[floplag]

well i think weve ticked at least 2 of the pet peaves from the other thread, im guessing well hit at least one more before its over  

[ettin]

In the 2nd to last paragraph they talk about the Mets needs: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mets-seriously-considering-noah-syndergaard-trade-scenarios.html

Hypothetically would a package of Andrew Heaney, Luis Rengifo, Blake Parker, and Trent Deveaux inspire sincere interest? I think it would if the Mets are not full of sh*t about competing in 2019. Instead of Luis Rengifo would they consider Zack Cozart plus another prospect like Brandon Marsh? All of those listed have more than one year of team control too.

I do not think it is that crazy. It would still leave us with options at 2B in either scenario with a combination of Fletcher and one of Cozart and Rengifo. We would replace one solid pitcher with a top of the rotation guy and could still reach out into free agency or trade where the left-handed pitching market is quite strong this off-season. Parker could be replaced internally or via trade or free agency in a robust relief market. We have good depth at CF so losing one of Deveaux or Marsh wouldn't kill us long-term with Adell and Adams in the pipeline.

[Chuck]

18 hours ago, ettin said:

In the 2nd to last paragraph they talk about the Mets needs: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mets-seriously-considering-noah-syndergaard-trade-scenarios.html

Hypothetically would a package of Andrew Heaney, Luis Rengifo, Blake Parker, and Trent Deveaux inspire sincere interest? I think it would if the Mets are not full of sh*t about competing in 2019. Instead of Luis Rengifo would they consider Zack Cozart plus another prospect like Brandon Marsh? All of those listed have more than one year of team control too.

I do not think it is that crazy. It would still leave us with options at 2B in either scenario with a combination of Fletcher and one of Cozart and Rengifo. We would replace one solid pitcher with a top of the rotation guy and could still reach out into free agency or trade where the left-handed pitching market is quite strong this off-season. Parker could be replaced internally or via trade or free agency in a robust relief market. We have good depth at CF so losing one of Deveaux or Marsh wouldn't kill us long-term with Adell and Adams in the pipeline.

It may have to be Marsh instead of Devo and Buttrey or Anderson instead of Parker.

[Docwaukee]

Not sure we match up well with them. My guess is that they’d want high potential position player talent they can plug in immediately plus a potential replacement for syndergaard.  

[Inside Pitch]

On 11/22/2018 at 12:36 AM, Stradling said:

I know what you are saying, but I was looking for a way to get him without giving up either Canning or Adell.  If you give up Rengifo you still have Jones and Fletcher.  If you give up Marsh you still have Adell, and all of the other recently drafted OFers.  It is a steep price, but it gets you a guy that has Ace stuff, is under control for 3 years and is young.  It hurts your rotation, but it doesn’t kill your farm.  What is crazy is a deal like this still likely doesn’t get it done.  

You're also talking about a guy who has a history of shoulder issues -- not elbow.  Dr's have come a long way with elbows -- shoulder injuries still end careers.

[Stradling]

6 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

You're also talking about a guy who has a history of shoulder issues -- not elbow.  Dr's have come a long way with elbows -- shoulder injuries still end careers.

Yea I was unaware of it being his shoulder. 

[Inside Pitch]

Just now, Stradling said:

Yea I was unaware of it being his shoulder. 

Three different times, plus the lat tear a couple years ago.

[TroutField]

4 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Three different times, plus the lat tear a couple years ago.

Yeah I’m pretty reluctant to give up trade assets for a guy with shoulder issues. We saw what it did to Alex Meyer, the dude just cannot stay healthy. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, TroutField said:

Yeah I’m pretty reluctant to give up trade assets for a guy with shoulder issues. We saw what it did to Alex Meyer, the dude just cannot stay healthy. 

It's a contributing factor into why they are even willing to move him.  

[Blarg]

Unfortunately a shoulder issue to me is a deal breaker. It does end careers and there isn't a real work around for the damage. This may be the best trade not to make.

[totdprods]

I still like Jameson Taillon as a guy who might turn a corner and become a fantastic frontline ace with years of control. Kluber, Carrasco, and Greinke should draw some interest as well.

There are alternatives to Syndergaard without durability issues that should be considered first, but if those same issues bring his cost down to a point where it’s drastically cheaper than the aforementioned, it should be considered. The Angels have some redundancy in areas of the farm to work with. It doesn’t have to be Adell.

[Angel Oracle]

Seth Rollins Tropeano and Oscar Meyer should tell us all we need to know about pitchers with shoulder issues.

Say no to Thor, and develop their own Thor minus the shoulder issue.

[ukyah]

this is the type of trade that could destroy any chance the angels have of winning with trout. it's a hard pass, for me.

[goldenGlove]

Would rather take a flier on Bumgarner and see if we can bring him back after his contract is up. Should cost less in prospects and from what I understand  Bumgarners injuries aren’t shoulder related or anything as concerning. That’s of course if the Giants actually want to move him

[ukyah]

3 hours ago, kj_maestro said:

Would rather take a flier on Bumgarner and see if we can bring him back after his contract is up. Should cost less in prospects and from what I understand  Bumgarners injuries aren’t shoulder related or anything as concerning. That’s of course if the Giants actually want to move him

me too even with some of his concerns, but i think with his pitching history, the price may be prohibitive.