2018 Hot Stove League

[T.G.]

29 minutes ago, Kody Mac said:

Harper to the Dodgers 10/326

I'm borrowing this from someone on Twitter...

That's a clown contract, bro.

[VariousCrap]

4 hours ago, Blarg said:

Maybe not, 1st base is not a premium position so Bellinger's value is depreciated. Regardless the Marlins are acting like they have Johnny Bench in his prime up for trade. They don't and won't get that kind of package. 

 

Bellinger can play above average defense at all three outfield positions too.

[Docwaukee]

19 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

 

Bellinger can play above average defense at all three outfield positions too.

Bellinger is a plus CFer but that still doesn't offset Realmuto's value at the C position.  The big difference is the 5 vs. 2 years of control.  Also, Relamuto is probably around his max in terms of where he's gonna be from a production standpoint whereas Bellinger is entering his age 23 season and could actually get better.  I wouldn't make that trade.  

[Hubs]

2 hours ago, Glen said:

Why will he suddenly improve hitting at home?

He had a lower than expected BABIP, especially at home, and an usually high infield fly percentage. He also basically reverted to pre 2017 walk numbers, and walk percentage, which is likely because he was swinging at more pitches outside the zone (4% more), Swinging at more pitches in general (2.5% more), with less contact (7% less), and more pitches were in the zone. (2$ more). He saw more fastballs and sliders and less changeups and curveballs.

 

[ksangel]

22 hours ago, Stradling said:

Don’t take this the wrong way because this isn’t about you, but I hate when people bring up these types of things when they are no longer relevant.  None of those guys were drafted by Eppler and his team.  It would be more relevant if you put the Yankees second round picks while Eppler was there.  It would be like a Dodger fan saying they shouldn’t trade a starting pitcher because they once traded Pedro Martinez.  Or they shouldn’t trade an outfielder because they once traded Lou Brock.  

2nd round Yankee picks under Eppler:

JB Cox, Scott Biddle, JR Murphy, Angelo Gumbs, Sam Stafford, Peter O'Brien, Austin Aune, Gosuke Katoh, Jacob Lindgren and Austin Romine...

Not exactly household MLB names or players who have become front line players or even average players who are/were starters.  So even Eppler didn't have a Midas touch with the Yankees drafting in the 2nd round.

Didn't think I needed to include this list in original post. Thought it was clear enough that 2nd round picks typically fail to reach the majors. From my research (baseballreference.com) about 90% of 2nd rounders achieve little or no success in the majors. Third and fourth rounders even achieve less success - under 5% of those drafted reach the majors and are regulars.

And with the Angels having approximately the 56th pick of the draft next year in the second round,  that draft pick historically has achieved success in the majors 5 times in the last 46 drafts...so is saving that pick worth taking Ramos over Grandal?

There would seem to be more to Eppler saving draft picks then him thinking they will be productive players in the majors...possibly amassing upper level draft picks to raise the perception of the minor league talent pool for future trades - "be a top 5" per Eppler?  Plus the Angels decimated their minor league system in 2010 and 11 since Bolden, Lindsey, Clarke and Cowart did not make it to the majors or become regulars and also not having first round picks in 2012 and 2013 by signing Pujols, Hamilton and Wilson -  so restocking the talent is also necessary for prolonged chance of success.

And I didn't take it personally btw - just should have been clearer what I meant.

[Lou]

5 minutes ago, ksangel said:

2nd round Yankee picks under Eppler:

I'm guessing these picks were at the tail end of the 2nd round, right? 

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, Glen said:

Why will he suddenly improve hitting at home?

I realize this wasn't directed towards me and I'm not saying he will improve at home but a 100 at bat sample means absolutely nothing.

[CDiaz27?]

White Sox acquire Yonder Alonso from Indians who is brother in law to Manny Machado, this’ll play a big factor for the Sox trying to sign Machado 

[Roy Hobbs]

1 minute ago, CDiaz27 said:

White Sox acquire Yonder Alonso from Indians who is brother in law to Manny Machado, this’ll play a big factor for the Sox trying to sign Machado 

Manny hates his brother-in-law.

[CDiaz27?]

Just now, Roy Hobbs said:

Manny hates his Mother-in-law.

 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, ksangel said:

2nd round Yankee picks under Eppler:

JB Cox, Scott Biddle, JR Murphy, Angelo Gumbs, Sam Stafford, Peter O'Brien, Austin Aune, Gosuke Katoh, Jacob Lindgren and Austin Romine...

Not exactly household MLB names or players who have become front line players or even average players who are/were starters.  So even Eppler didn't have a Midas touch with the Yankees drafting in the 2nd round.

Didn't think I needed to include this list in original post. Thought it was clear enough that 2nd round picks typically fail to reach the majors. From my research (baseballreference.com) about 90% of 2nd rounders achieve little or no success in the majors. Third and fourth rounders even achieve less success - under 5% of those drafted reach the majors and are regulars.

And with the Angels having approximately the 56th pick of the draft next year in the second round,  that draft pick historically has achieved success in the majors 5 times in the last 46 drafts...so is saving that pick worth taking Ramos over Grandal?

There would seem to be more to Eppler saving draft picks then him thinking they will be productive players in the majors...possibly amassing upper level draft picks to raise the perception of the minor league talent pool for future trades - "be a top 5" per Eppler?  Plus the Angels decimated their minor league system in 2010 and 11 since Bolden, Lindsey, Clarke and Cowart did not make it to the majors or become regulars and also not having first round picks in 2012 and 2013 by signing Pujols, Hamilton and Wilson -  so restocking the talent is also necessary for prolonged chance of success.

And I didn't take it personally btw - just should have been clearer what I meant.

Eppler wasn't involved with the draft while with the yankees.... He ran their professional scouting dept... He was involved in them getting Colon, Chavez, Freddy Garcia, Russell Martin, etc etc....

[Chuck]

20 minutes ago, CDiaz27 said:

White Sox acquire Yonder Alonso from Indians who is brother in law to Manny Machado, this’ll play a big factor for the Sox trying to sign Machado 

But what if he thinks his brother in law is a DB?

[JAHV76]

2 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

But what if he thinks his brother in law is a DB?

That’s what he thinks of Harper.

[Glen]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I realize this wasn't directed towards me and I'm not saying he will improve at home but a 100 at bat sample means absolutely nothing.

I may be irrationally sour on him but I just don't see his luck changing, being another year older and only having one good season on his resume.  As always when I'm being negative, I hope I'm wrong.  It would be such a plus for the team if he could at least be somewhere between his 2016 and 2017 seasons, but I think he'll be closer to 2016.

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Eppler wasn't involved with the draft while with the yankees.... He ran their professional scouting dept... He was involved in them getting Colon, Chavez, Freddy Garcia, Russell Martin, etc etc....

That's a wrecking ball to that narrative.

[UndertheHalo]

Starting wonder if they’ll do anything before Christmas.  50/50 I guess.  Sort of can’t believe that Bour is the biggest thing they’ve done so far. 

[ettin]

8 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Starting wonder if they’ll do anything before Christmas.  50/50 I guess.  Sort of can’t believe that Bour is the biggest thing they’ve done so far. 

The catching market hasn't moved because Realmuto is still on the board.

The 3B market hasn't moved much because Machado is still on the board.

Pitching market has moved and we bid on top players but they chose to go elsewhere and/or we didn't win the bidding.

1B market hasn't moved much but we picked out a piece of low-hanging fruit.

Market is shifting away from the Winter Meetings because agent's like Boras prefer to have their players sign closer to the start of the season to make teams get more desperate for their top clients. Thus we have to wait longer for results overall.

[UndertheHalo]

6 minutes ago, ettin said:

The catching market hasn't moved because Realmuto is still on the board.

The 3B market hasn't moved much because Machado is still on the board.

Pitching market has moved and we bid on top players but they chose to go elsewhere and/or we didn't win the bidding.

1B market hasn't moved much but we picked out a piece of low-hanging fruit.

Market is shifting away from the Winter Meetings because agent's like Boras prefer to have their players sign closer to the start of the season to make teams get more desperate for their top clients. Thus we have to wait longer for results overall.

I know this is all correct.  I just hate it. 

[ettin]

49 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

I know this is all correct.  I just hate it. 

Sorry for the mansplaining then.

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, ksangel said:

2nd round Yankee picks under Eppler:

JB Cox, Scott Biddle, JR Murphy, Angelo Gumbs, Sam Stafford, Peter O'Brien, Austin Aune, Gosuke Katoh, Jacob Lindgren and Austin Romine...

Not exactly household MLB names or players who have become front line players or even average players who are/were starters.  So even Eppler didn't have a Midas touch with the Yankees drafting in the 2nd round.

Didn't think I needed to include this list in original post. Thought it was clear enough that 2nd round picks typically fail to reach the majors. From my research (baseballreference.com) about 90% of 2nd rounders achieve little or no success in the majors. Third and fourth rounders even achieve less success - under 5% of those drafted reach the majors and are regulars.

And with the Angels having approximately the 56th pick of the draft next year in the second round,  that draft pick historically has achieved success in the majors 5 times in the last 46 drafts...so is saving that pick worth taking Ramos over Grandal?

There would seem to be more to Eppler saving draft picks then him thinking they will be productive players in the majors...possibly amassing upper level draft picks to raise the perception of the minor league talent pool for future trades - "be a top 5" per Eppler?  Plus the Angels decimated their minor league system in 2010 and 11 since Bolden, Lindsey, Clarke and Cowart did not make it to the majors or become regulars and also not having first round picks in 2012 and 2013 by signing Pujols, Hamilton and Wilson -  so restocking the talent is also necessary for prolonged chance of success.

And I didn't take it personally btw - just should have been clearer what I meant.

the way the draft is structured these days and the way the Halos use their pool, the second round pick becomes very important because of the amount of money you lose if you don't have it.  It's a big reason why they've been successful at getting high upside players or having that extra flexibility if you need to pay your first or third round pick over slot.  It's not a huge deal but I am sure they have a bunch of math on this they've done behind the scenes to calculate the type of player it's worth doing it for.  

[ksangel]

10 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Eppler wasn't involved with the draft while with the yankees.... He ran their professional scouting dept... He was involved in them getting Colon, Chavez, Freddy Garcia, Russell Martin, etc etc....

He was assistant General Manager from 2011 on so he was involved in the draft.

 

[Inside Pitch]

30 minutes ago, ksangel said:

He was assistant General Manager from 2011 on so he was involved in the draft.

Tell yourself whatever you want but that's not how it works.  Eppler was VP of Baseball operations in charge of pro scouting.  Tim Naehring took over his role in NY and despite his having been the Cincinati Reds farm director he isn't involved in any amateur draft decisions either.

[Inside Pitch]

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

the way the draft is structured these days and the way the Halos use their pool, the second round pick becomes very important because of the amount of money you lose if you don't have it.  It's a big reason why they've been successful at getting high upside players or having that extra flexibility if you need to pay your first or third round pick over slot.  It's not a huge deal but I am sure they have a bunch of math on this they've done behind the scenes to calculate the type of player it's worth doing it for.  

Exactly, it's the value of the dollars more than the player itself.   The Angels having had success with that pick is gravy.

[ksangel]

5 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Tell yourself whatever you want but that's not how it works.  Eppler was VP of Baseball operations in charge of pro scouting.  Tim Naehring took over his role in NY and despite his having been the Cincinati Reds farm director he isn't involved in any amateur draft decisions either.

From MLB.com

"From 2004 thru 2015, Eppler worked his way up the New York Yankees baseball operations department. He was initially hired as Assistant Director of Baseball Operations, Nov. 1, 2004. Eppler would eventually be promoted to Director of Professional Scouting from 2006-09 and Senior Director of Professional Personnel from 2010-11. He finished his fourth season as Assistant General Manager and first as Vice-President in '15. His responsibilities for the Yankees and assisting General Manager Brian Cashman included player acquisitions, roster composition and management, staffing and personnel decisions, and player contract negotiations. In addition, he oversaw all phases and personnel in the Yankees' Major League and professional scouting departments both domestically and internationally." 

Yeah sure he wasn't involved in the draft for the Yankees...

And read this article - Eppler undoubtedly was in on scouting Justice.

https://www.mlb.com/news/oral-history-of-yankees-drafting-aaron-judge/c-278026828

But believe what you want.

 

[ksangel]

13 hours ago, Dochalo said:

the way the draft is structured these days and the way the Halos use their pool, the second round pick becomes very important because of the amount of money you lose if you don't have it.  It's a big reason why they've been successful at getting high upside players or having that extra flexibility if you need to pay your first or third round pick over slot.  It's not a huge deal but I am sure they have a bunch of math on this they've done behind the scenes to calculate the type of player it's worth doing it for.  

I appreciate that insight...but to go back to my original comment...2nd round players typically don't become productive MLB players...that's indisputable because the facts are there. And that information possibly would play into choosing between Grandal and Ramos if Grandal is viewed by the Angels as a much better FA choice.

Somehow posters on this site skewed off on a tangent from my original comment (2nd round players typically don't make the majors) to whether Eppler was part of the decision making on Yankees drafting players.  Whether Eppler was part of the Yankees draft choices is irrelevant to whether 2nd round players make it to the majors and how that impacts Angels deciding whether or not to go after Grandal rather than Ramos.

Seems posters are more concerned with bashing other's posts then understanding them.