Source: Angels "have to be" in on Darvish

[red321]

12 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Darvish is a FA last I checked, not on the DL. We willingly paid a LF $25m a year for two years to not even be on the team. Paying a guy who can actually walk onto the field wouldn't be the stupidest thing we've done.

We're paying him because he can make 30 starts, something no one on this club has done since 2015.

And something Darvish has accomplished once in that same timeframe. 

31, 17, 0

 

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Can he though?   How many years has he done it?   Answer: only twice in six years, and in fact only three seasons out of six has he made more than 22 starts

Yes, I think he can. One of those seasons he also made 29 starts - that's close enough. 

He was also extremely durable in Japan. For most of his career, he's been able to pitch a vast majority of the season. Because of their schedule, few make 30 GS there, but several years he was in the high 20s for GS.

No one our staff can say that, except Matt Shoemaker. Heaney has been durable short of his TJS stint. 

[HaloCory22]

43 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I feel like I should also mention that, if prices for Darvish and Arrieta are falling, they may be falling for Lynn, Cobb, Garcia, Hellickson, etc. as well. Obviously a whole different tier of pitcher, but any would still provide some stability to a rotation full of question marks.

I don't think there's a single SP on the roster right now who's pitched a complete season at a big-league level over the last two seasons. Ohtani included (if you count NPB).  Heck out of all of them, only Shoemaker may have single season's worth of starts combined over the last two years. 

Nail on the head right here. How some people are content with the rotation and "depth" we have right now blows me away. We need someone that's actually pitched consistently the past few seasons.

[Make Angels Great Again]

All I know is I just want something to happen because the last month or so has been boring as shit.

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, red321 said:

And something Darvish has accomplished once in that same timeframe. 

31, 17, 0

Still more starts than anyone on this staff in the same time except maybe Shoemaker or Iron Man Skaggs.

Why exactly does everyone think Yu is going to explode and fall apart next year or in the near-future? Am I missing something? He made 35 GS, postseason included, last year.

[HaloCory22]

8 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Still more starts than anyone on this staff in the same time except maybe Shoemaker or Iron Man Skaggs.

Why exactly does everyone think Yu is going to explode and fall apart next year or in the near-future? Am I missing something?

We're a battered wife. It's all we know. :'(

[Mark68]

With a 6-man rotation, we're actually not gonna pay ANYONE to make 30 starts. But I think that's a key for someone with an injury history.

 

Less wear & tear on all of their arms (including Darvish, if we sign him). But we're gonna need someone like him in a playoff scenario, especially when the Astros can throw Keuchel, Verlander, and Cole at you.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Mark68 said:

With a 6-man rotation, we're actually not gonna pay ANYONE to make 30 starts. But I think that's a key for someone with an injury history.

Less wear & tear on all of their arms (including Darvish, if we sign him). But we're gonna need someone like him in a playoff scenario, especially when the Astros can throw Keuchel, Verlander, and Cole at you.

This is a big factor for me too. Did we really come this far just to hope for a do-or-die one-game playoff? Especially if we have to use our #1 and #2 on the last days of the year to hit that mark or in tiebreakers?

I understand Eppler's steady, methodical approach the past two years. It was needed. And no, we don't need to go balls to wall all-in now, but there's room to still make a bit of a statement. I'm sure Eppler would like to say he made the playoffs once before his 4-year deal runs out, and I'm sure the org would like to get Trout another playoff appearance before his contract is up. They're running out of years to do that, so I think we will start seeing a bit more urgency and a little more boldness and risk in the moves we make. The script will change a bit from what we've come to expect from Eppler. It's time for Phase Two. 

[Chuck]

53 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

With a 6-man rotation, we're actually not gonna pay ANYONE to make 30 starts. But I think that's a key for someone with an injury history.

Less wear & tear on all of their arms (including Darvish, if we sign him). But we're gonna need someone like him in a playoff scenario, especially when the Astros can throw Keuchel, Verlander, and Cole at you.

+1

[tdawg87]

I don't think we're gonna have a 6 man rotation, but I do think Sosh will have a short leash on all the starters, which means someone like Shoe goes to the pen.

A rotation of Richards, Darvish, Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney/Bridwell is in the upper half of the league's best. Then you've got Shoe and Ramirez as backup for the later innings and teams are going to have a hell of a time scoring runs off us.

I legitimately feel Darvish pushes us that much farther. That rotation coupled with the significant improvements to the offense makes us a serious threat to Houston. Fuck the wild card.

[Warfarin]

https://twitter.com/Chris_Camello/status/954188757304930307

"After speaking with my sources, I found that the #Dodgers would only bring back Darvish if he dropped his price considerably. He’s looking for 5yr, $100-150 mil. LA would only sign him for 4yr, $70 mil to avoid further luxury tax penalties #MLBNHotStove"

[Erstad Grit]

I didn't read the whole thread but I want nothing to do with darvish.  Lynn would be a better pitcher and cheaper.  

[HeavenlyHalos]

8 hours ago, totdprods said:

This is a big factor for me too. Did we really come this far just to hope for a do-or-die one-game playoff? Especially if we have to use our #1 and #2 on the last days of the year to hit that mark or in tiebreakers?

I understand Eppler's steady, methodical approach the past two years. It was needed. And no, we don't need to go balls to wall all-in now, but there's room to still make a bit of a statement. I'm sure Eppler would like to say he made the playoffs once before his 4-year deal runs out, and I'm sure the org would like to get Trout another playoff appearance before his contract is up. They're running out of years to do that, so I think we will start seeing a bit more urgency and a little more boldness and risk in the moves we make. The script will change a bit from what we've come to expect from Eppler. It's time for Phase Two. 

[Docwaukee]

5 hours ago, Warfarin said:

https://twitter.com/Chris_Camello/status/954188757304930307

"After speaking with my sources, I found that the #Dodgers would only bring back Darvish if he dropped his price considerably. He’s looking for 5yr, $100-150 mil. LA would only sign him for 4yr, $70 mil to avoid further luxury tax penalties #MLBNHotStove"

anything for 100m or less and 5yrs or less would be fine with me.  As I mentioned in another thread, I think he gets 5/125 at the end of the day.  I bet he has that on the table from the Twins but he's waiting to get similar offers from the Yanks, Halos, Dogs and Rangers.  Who have likely offered less (guessing in the 4/90 or 5/100 range).  

I'm comfortable with the first 3 years of that type of deal.  But if you back load the contract, you'd be giving Darvish 23/24 mil for age 34/35, Upton 23/28 mil for age 33/34, and of course you've still got pujols to pay for 2021.  There would be Trout and Simmons extensions.  That's like 140 mil for 5 guys. That's baking in quite a few restrictions for 2021-2022.  

Probably best to just pass at this point.  

[Revad]

We want it but we probably shouldn’t.  On the other hand we could justify it (in the morning/aftermath).  Hopefully we have a strong executive function working... Eppy save us from ourselves. Unless you want to do it.  We’re right behind you in that case, for a year or at least a few starts.  A few stonlen signs and a wrinkle or two is nothing to worry about.  Right?

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

I'm OK signing Darvish for whatever he wants. I don't care if we go over the tax threshold for ever, because it's not my money. I just want to win... Too bad Arte cares..

.

[Angel Oracle]

8 hours ago, Warfarin said:

https://twitter.com/Chris_Camello/status/954188757304930307

"After speaking with my sources, I found that the #Dodgers would only bring back Darvish if he dropped his price considerably. He’s looking for 5yr, $100-150 mil. LA would only sign him for 4yr, $70 mil to avoid further luxury tax penalties #MLBNHotStove"

That is about as far as I would go too for Darvish.  5 years/$100 million is still too much.

[Angel Oracle]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

anything for 100m or less and 5yrs or less would be fine with me.  As I mentioned in another thread, I think he gets 5/125 at the end of the day.  I bet he has that on the table from the Twins but he's waiting to get similar offers from the Yanks, Halos, Dogs and Rangers.  Who have likely offered less (guessing in the 4/90 or 5/100 range).  

I'm comfortable with the first 3 years of that type of deal.  But if you back load the contract, you'd be giving Darvish 23/24 mil for age 34/35, Upton 23/28 mil for age 33/34, and of course you've still got pujols to pay for 2021.  There would be Trout and Simmons extensions.  That's like 140 mil for 5 guys. That's baking in quite a few restrictions for 2021-2022.  

Probably best to just pass at this point.  

Could always Bonilla the 2021 Pujols salary out to say 2025.   There’s no way he is playing by 2021 at age 41.

[Jay]

20 hours ago, floplag said:

Were both speculating, but based on the actions and public comments the Dodgers would appear to be out of it.   If they are not then what are they waiting for? 

Did you not watch the World Series?

 

[CanadianHalo]

3 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Could always Bonilla the 2021 Pujols salary out to say 2025.   There’s no way he is playing by 2021 at age 51.

FIFY

[floplag]

2 hours ago, Jay said:

Did you not watch the World Series?

 

I'm sorry what does that have to do with their public statements and intents to get under the tax now?  

[Erstad Grit]

11 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

He would be cheaper. There is a pretty small chance he would be better.

Since 2014 Lynn has been a better pitcher. 

[Make Angels Great Again]

Darvish and Lynn are really damn close since 2014 actually. It could go either way. I would probably say Lynn since he has been able to log a lot more innings, although his peripheral drop off last year is slightly concerning.

Darvish since 2014:

Lynn since 2014:

 

First off, pitcher WAR is garbage since it relies on FIP. FIP is a garbage stat because it totally ignores a pitcher's ability to induce weak contact.

Lynn threw 134 more innings, and has a small edge in ERA+.

Darvish has the ability to dominate more judging by his far better K/BB ratio, and Darvish will probably age better.

It's really close IMO.

[krAbs]

Speaking of sabermetrics, I have a random ass question. Does anyone know where to look up what percentage of strikeouts ended in an out? I know its high (<99%), but I also know its not 100%, because of the whole 'stealing first' thing. I think it would be interesting to create an "expected WHIP", and take a pitcher GB%, FB%, LD%, K%, and BB%, and normalize them all against the league batting average for each of these. I could just assume 100% of strikeouts are outs, but...what fun is that?

[Angelsfan1984]

You should be more worried about what % of dumps result in pants fitting better. Theres a small % of said pants require disposal.