Source: Angels "have to be" in on Darvish

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

49 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

 

Richards isn't even close to being on the same level as the guys you just mentioned.  Come on now...

That wasn't the question, you said how many pitchers throw 97 and pitch into to their mid 30s. And you never know what his ceiling is until he has a complete season without injuries.

Regardless he will will be hard to replace if he can remain healthy. I guess we'll see going forward. Neither of us has any say over his or the Angels future.

[VariousCrap]

8 minutes ago, HaloCory22 said:

The more I've thought about it the more I'm down to give him a short 3 year/$90-100 deal. The AAV of $33 could be enough to get the deal done. Maybe a 4th year option that kicks in if an innings limit is reached. A 3 year deal doesn't hinder us at all. It'll be done by the time Trout's deal comes through. Pujols will be on his way out too. Doesn't cost us a pick either. 

 

I was thinking 5/100 max for Darvish, but I wouldn't mind the shorter deal with a higher AAV like you suggested.  I think Darvish only has three more strong years left in him anyways.

[VariousCrap]

1 minute ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

That wasn't the question, you said how many pitchers throw 97 and pitch into to their mid 30s. And you never know what his ceiling is until he has a complete season without injuries.

Regardless he will will be hard to replace if he can remain healthy. I guess we'll see going forward. Neither of us has any say over his or the Angels future.

 

I wasn't the one you were talking to about that.  I was just pointing out that you were mentioning elite pitchers and Richards is not an elite pitcher.

[totdprods]

I think Darvish may age well actually. He has an incredibly deep repertoire. He's going to need to adjust as he ages and loses velocity and improve his command and maintain that pitch diversity, but he seems like an intelligent, crafty, multi-talented enough of a guy to be capable of it. Maybe transitioning to more of a contact guy relying on movement and deception rather than chasing the strikeout, but that would bodes well for playing in Anaheim, especially with our current coaching staff's philosophy of finding underutilized pitches and relying less on the 4-seam and FB variants instead.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

1 minute ago, VariousCrap said:

 

I wasn't the one you were talking to about that.  I was just pointing out that you were mentioning elite pitchers and Richards is not an elite pitcher.

Koufax wasn't for his first 4 years or so. I am not saying he is as good as those pitchers but he could be someday or maybe he won't but he is as good or better than 90% of the pitchers today if he remains healthy.

[Stradling]

9 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

That wasn't the question, you said how many pitchers throw 97 and pitch into to their mid 30s. And you never know what his ceiling is until he has a complete season without injuries.

Regardless he will will be hard to replace if he can remain healthy. I guess we'll see going forward. Neither of us has any say over his or the Angels future.

I too could have looked at the careers of the all time greats.  Richards is a good pitcher, but he isn’t one of those guys.  Show me a #2 type pitcher that does what Richards does deep into their 30’s.  

[floplag]

44 minutes ago, Stradling said:

@floplag if he wants $20 + million a year he will get it.  I’m guessing he’s already got those types of offers.  What’s the rush for any of them?  If most everyone had signed then sure it’s late in the game, but since none have signed, it’s no different than late November.  

I cant agree, IF he already had that one the table, he would have signed. 
The only exception to thats would be if hes waiting on someone else to make a similar offer but as long as this is dragging out i dont think thats the case.    He's clearly on top of the situation according to his own twitter.
Just my opinion, but i cant see him holding out for more given what is becoming a very obvious down market for FA.  

[Stradling]

Just now, floplag said:

I cant agree, IF he already had that one the table, he would have signed. 
The only exception to thats would be if hes waiting on someone else to make a similar offer but as long as this is dragging out i dont think thats the case.    He's clearly on top of the situation according to his own twitter.
Just my opinion, but i cant see him holding out for more given what is becoming a very obvious down market for FA.  

There were reports the Twins offered him over $20 million a season.  The Yankees offered him a contract, and while it wasn’t as much as Michael Kay suggested there is little doubt it was over $20 million a season.  

[CanadianHalo]

Eppler has always given me the impression that if he’s going to spend 100+ million on a player it would be on an everyday player.

But with Ohtani choosing the Angels, that may have changed things. Maybe Eppler told Ohtani he’d make a push for Darvish if that made Ohtani feel more comfortable. 

I’ve always liked Darvish but this would really have to be “at the right price” type of thing. We still have other holes and I’d hate for us to sink the last of our resources in Darvish if it handcuffed us moving forward.

[floplag]

Just now, Stradling said:

There were reports the Twins offered him over $20 million a season.  The Yankees offered him a contract, and while it wasn’t as much as Michael Kay suggested there is little doubt it was over $20 million a season.  

I'm well aware of the rumors, i just dont buy it.  not till i see it on the dotted line.  
If any of that is true, whats he waiting on?  If the Yanks have already made their best offer, the Dogs are out... he cant be waiting on someone else to swoop in and blow the budget, theres almost literally noone left to do that.   

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

I'm well aware of the rumors, i just dont buy it.  not till i see it on the dotted line.  
If any of that is true, whats he waiting on?  If the Yanks have already made their best offer, the Dogs are out... he cant be waiting on someone else to swoop in and blow the budget, theres almost literally noone left to do that.   

Flop, it only takes one.  We have no idea if the Dogs are out or if the Yanks have made their best offer.  Hell he could be waiting on a team to shed payroll.  Also, what does signing on the dotted line have to do with the best offer.  And of course he can be waiting on a team swooping in and blowing the budget.  

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

I also go back to what i heard some time back the he and Othani are closer than most think, and it could also be literally wanted to avoid the image of any kind of collusion, but thats speculation on my part. 

I think this has some legs. Yu's weird Angel emoji tweet right after the Ohtani surprise made me think this too, as well as all of the reports bubbling about a potential pre-deal arrangement and collusion. Would not surprise me if a big part of the Angels pitch was their heavy interest in Darvish, with Darvish's interest reciprocated to Ohtani either through the Angels or directly, but all parties agreed to wait it out to avoid any pre-arranged deal suspicions. I don't believe it was a guaranteed thing - the Angels would still pursue other FAs and Darvish would still take other offers - but the genuine interest between all was evident to all parties at the start. 

It could give an explanation on why Ohtani signed here, why Eppler jumped on so many FA and needs early on, why they eschewed Reed and the relief market, and why they committed to the idea of a 6 man rotation quickly. Also gives a bit of a hint behind Yu's quirky and mysterious Twitter postings all winter. The Angel emojii, the mystery team, denying other clubs offers, etc., shooting down writers' speculations....there are other reasons why all of that could have happened to, but if you work Darvish into the backstory equation, all of it still makes sense.

[bloodbrother]

If the Angels sign Darvish, would they really stick with a 6-man rotation and give him less starts/innings despite big $$$ commitment?

[floplag]

Just now, Stradling said:

Flop, it only takes one.  We have no idea if the Dogs are out or if the Yanks have made their best offer.  Hell he could be waiting on a team to shed payroll.  Also, what does signing on the dotted line have to do with the best offer.  And of course he can be waiting on a team swooping in and blowing the budget.  

Obviously, but who is that going to be right now? 

The Dogs have mad it 100% clear they will be under the tax, they got there, they cant afford darvish given that.   
Same with the Yanks, i dont think either can fit him in without making some other crazy move.  For example the yanks getting someone else to eat Ellsbury, which noone appears willing to do. 

Why would someone suddenly change their tactics now?

You say it only takes one, obviously correct, but whos that going to be? 

The only one i might give you as possible is the Twins if they think he could put them over the top, but they like us are looking up at a much stronger team.  Overpaying simply doesnt make a lot of sense for a WC spot.  At this point the Twins have to wonder how viable that even is after we made progress, cant they beat us and either NY or Bos again?   Fangraphs say no and puts them a full 7 games behind us in the projections, why break the bank. he doesnt make them 7 games better.  

Maybe an outside shot at the Cardinals projected within 4 games of the Cubs and they block the Cubs from getting him but they dont spend like that, ever. 

So whose going to step up and pay him that kind of money?  I dont see it 

[floplag]

1 minute ago, bloodbrother said:

If the Angels sign Darvish, would they really stick with a 6-man rotation and give him less starts/innings despite big $$$ commitment?

i think this is a given regardless. 

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

Obviously, but who is that going to be right now? 

The Dogs have mad it 100% clear they will be under the tax, they got there, they cant afford darvish given that.   
Same with the Yanks, i dont think either can fit him in without making some other crazy move.  For example the yanks getting someone else to eat Ellsbury, which noone appears willing to do. 

Why would someone suddenly change their tactics now?

You say it only takes one, obviously correct, but whos that going to be? 

The only one i might give you as possible is the Twins if they think he could put them over the top, but they like us are looking up at a much stronger team.  Overpaying simply doesnt make a lot of sense for a WC spot.  At this point the Twins have to wonder how viable that even is after we made progress, cant they beat us and either NY or Bos again?   Fangraphs say no and puts them a full 7 games behind us in the projections, why break the bank. he doesnt make them 7 games better.  

Maybe an outside shot at the Cardinals projected within 4 games of the Cubs and they block the Cubs from getting him but they dont spend like that, ever. 

So whose going to step up and pay him that kind of money?  I dont see it 

The Yankees and Dodgers could both pay that kind of money.  Sure they want to be under the tax. But the Dodgers starting pitching isn’t all that great.  You say all the time that the tax is a choice and you see no reason Arte should be tied to staying under it.  Well if you are the Dodgers, who have much more money than Arte, were one game away from winning it all, are already spending a ton of money on payroll, why wouldn’t they go over the tax to sign a much needed piece.  

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, bloodbrother said:

If the Angels sign Darvish, would they really stick with a 6-man rotation and give him less starts/innings despite big $$$ commitment?

Darvish likes that format too I think. If it keeps everyone healthier and more productive, why not? Wouldn't surprise me if it becomes commonplace in next decade anyways.

[totdprods]

The idea that Ohtani didn't want to play with another/prior Japanese star would have been a really nice piece of info to leak them the media to dissuade the Dodgers, Rangers, Yankees and Mariners and also cause them to up their offers in desperation and it would cloud Darvish's market.

For a team as radio silent as the Angels, a little bit of info like that leaking out to a reporter would spread like wildfire and wouldn't hurting the Angels chances. 

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

The Yankees and Dodgers could both pay that kind of money.  Sure they want to be under the tax. But the Dodgers starting pitching isn’t all that great.  You say all the time that the tax is a choice and you see no reason Arte should be tied to staying under it.  Well if you are the Dodgers, who have much more money than Arte, were one game away from winning it all, are already spending a ton of money on payroll, why wouldn’t they go over the tax to sign a much needed piece.  

Were both speculating, but based on the actions and public comments the Dodgers would appear to be out of it.   If they are not then what are they waiting for? 
If i was them i think i would look more at Arietta personally as a more known quantity in the NL.   Plus i'm quite certain the post season may have left a bad taste in their mouths. 
Could they, of course they could, i simply dont think its likely based on the facts at hand. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

38 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I too could have looked at the careers of the all time greats.  Richards is a good pitcher, but he isn’t one of those guys.  Show me a #2 type pitcher that does what Richards does deep into their 30’s.  

Whitey Ford, Colon, Felix, Juan Marichal, Don Sutton, Kenny Rogers, Johnny Padres

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

17 minutes ago, bloodbrother said:

If the Angels sign Darvish, would they really stick with a 6-man rotation and give him less starts/innings despite big $$$ commitment?

Eppler made it sound like the 6 man thing would only happen when we play 16 or more games in a row. they will take advantage of days offs to give the pitchers more days between starts. At least that's impression I got listening to his latest interview.

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Whitey Ford, Colon, Felix, Juan Marichal, Don Sutton, Kenny Rogers, Johnny Padres

 

Ok.  Well Sutton never threw that hard.  Colon was on Steroids, Felix isn’t even 32 yet.  Podres was basically out of baseball by the time he turned 35.  Marichal was pretty below average by that age.  We do agree that Richards is valuable.  

[Jeff Fletcher]

I just looked this up since I was curious....

Garrett Richards, since becoming a full time starter in July 2013: 83 games, 3.14 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

Yu Darvish, career: 131 games, 3.42 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I just looked this up since I was curious....

Garrett Richards, since becoming a full time starter in July 2013: 83 games, 3.14 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

Yu Darvish, career: 131 games, 3.42 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

What's the ERA+?

[Docwaukee]

If payroll and the price on Darvish work then I'd be fine going after him.  They may even have an offer in to him at what they can afford when they realized his asking price was more in line with that.  

Usually though, if the Halos want a big time free agent, they go after him hard and get him.  

In this case, throwing out an offer competitive to the rest of the offers and using bait of Trout/Ohtani may just land us a nice fish.