WPA?

[reteegz]

I'm not really into the sabermetrics but this seems interesting. From what I read it sounds more rational than WAR. WAR counts a leadoff homer in the first inning the same as a game winning homer. WPA takes a player in every clutch situation into account. Anyway, Josh Hamilton has the worst WPA in baseball, Trout is 5th worst and Kendrick is 10th worst. The Angels have 3 of the least clutch hitters in baseball. No other team has more than 1. School me on this stat Angelswin.

 

(This article was in the OC register but I can't link it because i'm not a paid subscriber, I read it in the newspaper.)

[Willy J.]

I don't need advanced saber-metrics to know that Hamilton blows.

 

 

But I seriously doubt Trout and Howie are two of the least clutch hitters in baseball.

[gotbeer]

I don't need advanced saber-metrics to know that Hamilton blows.

 

 

But I seriously doubt Trout and Howie are two of the least clutch hitters in baseball.

 

 

I don't get it either.  For Trout this season.

 

 

Scoring Position .350 .391 .650 1.041

Bases Loaded .333 .333 1.333 1.666

Scoring Posn, 2 out  .304 .304 .696 1.000

[Willy J.]

And Howie has a game winning homer this year. .  no doubt he can be frustrating at times, but one of the 10 worst clutch hitters in the majors?  I think not.

[nando714]

But I seriously doubt Trout and Howie are two of the least clutch hitters in baseball.

There's a reason he's called HKGIDP47

How bout the Howie unclutch thread...classic lol

[tomsred]

When you are in fourth place in your division fans magnify the mistakes.  Seems like more fans want to feel bad than good.

[austin724]

Can't we just stay positive. We are starting to get back on track after an awful start. Let's hope we do really well the rest of the way. 

[AZMike]

I'm not really into the sabermetrics but this seems interesting. From what I read it sounds more rational than WAR. WAR counts a leadoff homer in the first inning the same as a game winning homer. WPA takes a player in every clutch situation into account. Anyway, Josh Hamilton has the worst WPA in baseball, Trout is 5th worst and Kendrick is 10th worst. The Angels have 3 of the least clutch hitters in baseball. No other team has more than 1. School me on this stat Angelswin.

 

(This article was in the OC register but I can't link it because i'm not a paid subscriber, I read it in the newspaper.)

 

WAR is more comprehensive in the kinds of things it keeps score of (includes fielding, and baserunning -- WPA only considers hitting and base stealing). The goal there is WAR tries to distill down how skilled a player is independent of context. It's intended to be "predictive" of future performance. If you were going to trade for a player in Fantasy WAR is likely more useful stat to start from. 

 

WPA on the other hand is a descriptive stat. A better account of what actually happened in the game. If you were going to ask "which player is most valuable for their particular team?" WPA is a more useful stat than WAR to start from. Note that unlike WAR, if you add up the WPA of all the players it will actually add up to a team's actual win/loss record. So using the term "WINS" is actually appropriate. I think fewer people would have a problem with the term WAR if they simly called it "VAR" for Value above replacement, without mentioning wins. 

 

 

How WPA works is it takes the probabiltiy of your team winning the game based on the situation. Let's say runners at 1st and 3rd, down 1 run in the bottom of the 9th with 1 out. Let's say this is a 35% probability of a win for the home team. Now Howie Kendrick grounds into a double play. Game over. Win probability is zero. Kendrick is charged with -0.35 wins in his WPA. 

 

 

 

That said the Article is wrong in claiming Trout and Kendrick have bad WPA. Here's the WPA for the Angels:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=1&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

 

Trout has the most (1 win) Hamilton the least (-1.1 wins).

 

Here is the list for the whole American league:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=3&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,a

 

Josh Donaldson leads overall (2.8 wins). Jeff Keppinger is the lowest (-1.87)

 

Another interesting stat is WPA/LI. LI is leverage index and this is actually an attempt to weight home runs, hits etc. equally regardless of game situation (more like WAR). 

[mancini79]

Ah, the myth of "clutch hitters". Good hitters perform any situation and bad ones suck in all situations. A run in the first counts the same later in the game.

[Willy J.]

There's a reason he's called HKGIDP47

How bout the Howie unclutch thread...classic lol

 

 

Indeed it was. .  and then he hit the walk off homer then next day.

 

Maybe we should start another one. .

[nando714]

Indeed it was. . and then he hit the walk off homer then next day.

Thats what made it a classic lol

We should and a "Hamilton is so unclutch thread"

[Hollyw00d]

Clutch means nothing. A homer in the first inning counts just the same as a homer in the 9th.

[AngelsAndRamsFan]

Thats what made it a classic lol

We should and a "Hamilton is so unclutch thread"

I think there was one of those threads right after Howie's "unclutch" thread. It obviously didn't work. Since the "hamilton's going to go ballistic" thread was started, he's gone 1-9. 

[Willy J.]

Hamilton is fast becoming my least favorite Angel player ever. And I've been an Angel fan for 47 years.

[reteegz]

Clutch means nothing. A homer in the first inning counts just the same as a homer in the 9th.

Yea but we we have gotten a lot of meaningless home runs this season. Down 5-0 and we get a solo shot in the bottom of the ninth. We haven't been able to clutch up with RISP. We've gotten more meaningful home runs it seems recently by Trumbo and Trout. I don't care if a guy hits 60 solo shots in a season. I'd rather a guy hit 25 2 or 3 run shots. Just my opinion though.

[AZMike]

Clutch means nothing. A homer in the first inning counts just the same as a homer in the 9th.

 

A home run that improves the chances of winning the game from 50% to 100% (walk off) is a lot more valuable than a home run that improves the chances to win the game 5%. There is a quantifiable difference. That's the whole point of WPA.

 

Not only that but pitchers do in fact approach batters differently in a blowout than they would in 9th inning of a tie game.

[reteegz]

Clutch means nothing. A homer in the first inning counts just the same as a homer in the 9th.

Yea but we we have gotten a lot of meaningless home runs this season. Down 5-0 and we get a solo shot in the bottom of the ninth. We haven't been able to clutch up with RISP. We've gotten more meaningful home runs it seems recently by Trumbo and Trout. I don't care if a guy hits 60 solo shots in a season. I'd rather a guy hit 25 2 or 3 run shots. Just my opinion though.

A home run that improves the chances of winning the game from 50% to 100% (walk off) is a lot more valuable than a home run that improves the chances to win the game 5%. There is a quantifiable difference. That's the whole point of WPA.

 

Not only that but pitchers do in fact approach batters differently in a blowout than they would in 9th inning of a tie game.

Werd.

[AngelsLakersFan]

WAR is more comprehensive in the kinds of things it keeps score of (includes fielding, and baserunning -- WPA only considers hitting and base stealing). The goal there is WAR tries to distill down how skilled a player is independent of context. It's intended to be "predictive" of future performance. If you were going to trade for a player in Fantasy WAR is likely more useful stat to start from. 

 

WPA on the other hand is a descriptive stat. A better account of what actually happened in the game. If you were going to ask "which player is most valuable for their particular team?" WPA is a more useful stat than WAR to start from. Note that unlike WAR, if you add up the WPA of all the players it will actually add up to a team's actual win/loss record. So using the term "WINS" is actually appropriate. I think fewer people would have a problem with the term WAR if they simly called it "VAR" for Value above replacement, without mentioning wins. 

 

 

How WPA works is it takes the probabiltiy of your team winning the game based on the situation. Let's say runners at 1st and 3rd, down 1 run in the bottom of the 9th with 1 out. Let's say this is a 35% probability of a win for the home team. Now Howie Kendrick grounds into a double play. Game over. Win probability is zero. Kendrick is charged with -0.35 wins in his WPA. 

 

 

 

That said the Article is wrong in claiming Trout and Kendrick have bad WPA. Here's the WPA for the Angels:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=1&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

 

Trout has the most (1 win) Hamilton the least (-1.1 wins).

 

Here is the list for the whole American league:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=3&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,a

 

Josh Donaldson leads overall (2.8 wins). Jeff Keppinger is the lowest (-1.87)

 

Another interesting stat is WPA/LI. LI is leverage index and this is actually an attempt to weight home runs, hits etc. equally regardless of game situation (more like WAR). 

WAR is not actually predictive of future performance, or at least it does not try to be (it is more predictive than WPA though). WAR is measuring value without considering game context - it is a long run stat that assumes outcomes even out by the end of the season. 

Predictive stats are regressed and much more conservative, WAR is reporting actual on field performance. Trout's 10+ WAR last year did not mean he should be expected to reach 10 WAR again this year, it simply means his performance last year, on average, should've been worth 10 wins. Interestingly he also lead the league in WPA.

[YouthofToday]

WPA has very little predictive value. That is why I don't seek this stat out. There isn't any valid evidence that some players outperform there baseline numbers in certain situations.

[LBHalos17]

I don't do math, and I don't get most of these Sabermetric/Moneyball stats.  I stick with batting average and on-base percentage.  OBP tells me everything I need to know about how my game's going; if I'm getting on-base at .350+ as a 3,4,or 5 hitter, my team seems to do pretty well.  When I'm taking walks, I know that I'm pretty-well locked-in at the plate.

[Blarg]

Or you are facing Angels pitching.

[LBHalos17]

Or you are facing Angels pitching.

LOL... wouldn't go that far; their 85mph change-up is a fastball in my league.  8)