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IGNORED

Another former Braves prospect, shortstop Livan Soto


John Smith

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1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Ok I just got a text back. MLB is not likely to let the Angels manipulate it by waiting on Soto to see what happens with Ohtani. That means Soto has to go on their 18-19 pool. 

Grateful for you posting here.  Super appreciate it. I wish I could text MLB questions! 

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26 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

When's the last time we add an international prospect for 850k and he's questionably withing our top 30?  

I thought the same damn thing.

Not only that, pundits have said that he should at least be ranked towards the back end of our top 10, If not, then right outside that.

But on AW he's not even rank ahead of guys like god damn Jonah Todd and Joe Gatto?

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3 minutes ago, SoWhat said:

I thought the same damn thing.

Not only that, pundits have said that he should at least be ranked towards the back end of our top 10, If not, then right outside that.

But on AW he's not even rank ahead of guys like god damn Jonah Todd and Joe Gatto?

 a recent influx of general org talent has left many of us scratching our heads as to where it all fits.  We actually have talent outside of our top 30 that could end up in our top 10 a year from now.  Not insinuating that we don't know how to rank players.  Just that we have actual depth.  It's a good problem.  

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17 minutes ago, SoWhat said:

I thought the same damn thing.

Not only that, pundits have said that he should at least be ranked towards the back end of our top 10, If not, then right outside that.

But on AW he's not even rank ahead of guys like god damn Jonah Todd and Joe Gatto?

A few responses:

1) AW's Top 30 rankings are a collection of opinions from those of us who follow the minor leagues pretty actively and/or have really good contacts and sources on this. Reading any one of our opinions is NOT the AW official position. I would rank Soto as 15th. Check the Top-30 revised prospect thread.

2) These guys are YOUNG! They are high school juniors/seniors. There's a LOT of projection going on here. A LOT can happen between that age and the Major Leagues. For every Mike Trout, well, there's just Mike Trout. The overwhelming majority don't pan out like that or anywhere close to that. 

3) None of us have really seen him anywhere near as in depth as we've seen our current prospects. And, we haven't gotten to know him like we've gotten to know our current prospects. So, it obviously will be difficult for us to rank him. Soto didn't have the exposure that Maitan had, so some of the people who help form these lists have to check with many sources, myself included. And then trying to figure out how that all translates into our system is again a difficult problem.

4) All of the guys who do the rankings have their own inherent preferences. I am biased towards proximity to the Majors over potential talent because a lot can happen over the years. I am also partial to looking at the depth at a position versus talent as well (along with many other factors--such as age against competition, etc.) for determining my rankings. Others have their preferences. When we ultimately come out with our published rankings, part of what makes it so much better than so many other rankings is that by getting multiple viewpoints and rankings, and then merging them into one list, we believe that we create a much better overall ranking.

5) Cut Scotty a break on this. He was working out his thoughts in real time on here for everyone, and I commend him for doing so. Would you rather we didn't do that and kept everyone in the dark until we had discussed it elsewhere? Scotty is doing a great job on getting info from his sources and getting it out to everyone and by sharing his thoughts in real time, and getting contradictory opinions, he can use that to go back to his sources to verify or change his opinions. 

 

I think in the end, 15th is a very fair and accurate ranking for Soto. I won't complain if it's as high as 12 on our current list, but I wouldn't go much lower, either. That gives us time and ability to move him up if he shows the defense and bat of Simmons or allows us to move him down if he proves to be Baldoquin 2.0.

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Any chance we go after the 2nd baseman Yunior Severino?.....He struck out quite a bit but showed more extra base power....?

https://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/93598/yunior-severino

Born: Oct. 3, 1999 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Ht.: 6-1 Wt.: 180

Bats: B Throws: R

YEAR AGE CLUB LG CLASS AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS GDP OBP SLG OPS
2017 17 Braves DSL R .189 10 37 6 7 2 1 0 2 8 6 0 0 0 .348 .297 .645
2017 17 Braves GCL R .286 48 189 27 54 17 2 3 27 16 61 0 1 2 .345 .444 .789
MINOR LEAGUE TOTALS .270 58 226 33 61 19 3 3 29 24 67 0 1 2 .345 .420 .765
 
 
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Or, add Juan Carlos Negret to the stable of Outfielders?

https://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/32603/juan-carlos-negret

Born: June 19, 1999 in Havana, Cuba

Ht.: 6-1 Wt.: 190

Bats: R Throws: R

       
YEAR AGE CLUB LG CLASS AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS GDP OBP SLG OPS
2017 18 Braves DSL R .264 50 174 31 46 14 1 2 10 27 47 23 9 0 .410 .391 .801
MINOR LEAGUE TOTALS .264 50 174 31 46 14 1 2 10 27 47 23 9 0 .410 .391 .801

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I think Eppler will sign as many as he can to help build our farm.  Wouldn’t surprise me if he traded for more pool money to do just that. 

The Angels have NOT been developing an international presence for so long. That has been one of my biggest criticisms of the FO over the past decade. This is a chance to re-establish ourselves on the international market and improve our farm system at the same time. I'm happy with the two that we have signed so far, and will try and dig into info on the other ones to see if they are worth pursuing. We need to get back to developing talent from all over the world.

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So if we don't sign Ohtani, can the International money left (mostly what we got from the Braves), roll over into 18 or do we have to use it before the 18 period starts in June?  If we can't roll it over, is there anybody left to sign this year?  Other Braves FA guys?

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20 minutes ago, Stradling said:

You spend it or lose it. 

I would tend to think Eppler has to have a plan for not signing Ohtani....maybe other of the Braves prospects....but you wouldn't think there are a lot of available International guys at this point?  

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25 minutes ago, DMVol said:

I would tend to think Eppler has to have a plan for not signing Ohtani....maybe other of the Braves prospects....but you wouldn't think there are a lot of available International guys at this point?  

I would agree.  If they don’t get Ohtani he likely spends the money on ex Braves guys.

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10 hours ago, SoWhat said:

I thought the same damn thing.

Not only that, pundits have said that he should at least be ranked towards the back end of our top 10, If not, then right outside that.

But on AW he's not even rank ahead of guys like god damn Jonah Todd and Joe Gatto?

I believe most of these pundits are of the thought that the Angels system is incredibly weak, thus guys picked up from the Braves are automatically top tier prospects in our org. 

It's sad, but most of these so-called experts are armchair scouts. At least our guys here have actually seen these guys play in person. 

I'm guessing Soto will be somewhere between 14-20 on our list once we've made a decision.

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55 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I would agree.  If they don’t get Ohtani he likely spends the money on ex Braves guys.

If they are solid enough, might as well take advantage of the first $200k for each being exempt from the international pool limit.

Any pitchers included in that Braves' group that became FAs?

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1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

I believe most of these pundits are of the thought that the Angels system is incredibly weak, thus guys picked up from the Braves are automatically top tier prospects in our org. 

It's sad, but most of these so-called experts are armchair scouts. At least our guys here have actually seen these guys play in person. 

I'm guessing Soto will be somewhere between 14-20 on our list once we've made a decision.

This is very true. And I get it, other sites are largely driven by page views and top prospect lists generate page views. But the reality is, these guys are taking second hand information and passing it off as their own.

There's very little original thought, and very little disparity between different reports from different sites. 

How else do you explain that not a single site outside of AW had anything on Matt Shoemaker being a legitimate major leaguer. Or that no one outside of the now defunct MWAH predicted Kole Calhoun would be a good starting OF?

Other folks saw them and didn't think much, and everyone else was busy copying. But just like in school, if you're going to copy, make sure the source is worthy of such immoral distinction.

AW is different, and I think we're all quite proud of that fact. I know I am.

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28 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

This is very true. And I get it, other sites are largely driven by page views and top prospect lists generate page views. But the reality is, these guys are taking second hand information and passing it off as their own.

There's very little original thought, and very little disparity between different reports from different sites. 

How else do you explain that not a single site outside of AW had anything on Matt Shoemaker being a legitimate major leaguer. Or that no one outside of the now defunct MWAH predicted Kole Calhoun would be a good starting OF?

Other folks saw them and didn't think much, and everyone else was busy copying. But just like in school, if you're going to copy, make sure the source is worthy of such immoral distinction.

AW is different, and I think we're all quite proud of that fact. I know I am.

I was the first one pushing both, and had Calhoun ranked as our #3 prospect way before anyone else. That's because I saw them, theirwork ethic, their desire, etc., interviewed them, had them at our Fanfests, etc. AW was on both of them long before anyone in the rest of the prospect ranking world had heard of them.

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9 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Do you guys have examples of some players that the “pundits” graded as good prospects but you correctly thought wouldn’t make it?

Yes, especially if that means that they don't live up to the hype (so they may have made it to the Majors, but had nowhere near as good a career that they should have had, especially based on the hype). I have also had a couple of real misses on a couple of prospects that I thought would make it or do better than they did. But I don't publish that so much because they are people, often whose family members read this, so I don't really like putting out negatives on here. 

 

I have no problem admitting that trying to identify future talent is *REALLY* hard to do and is more of an art than a science and that I am only human. People miss on talent all the times (ahem Mike Trout). Players lives change, and there are so many variables that can happen, that in many ways it is a crapshoot. You know I teach high school, and I see kids go sideways or backwards all the time. Kids I thought would do so much more often don't make it for a variety of reasons that I never could have predicted or foreseen. 

 

More importantly, I have no problem admitting that people in the business have far more knowledge and insight about these things than I do. That's why I am usually rather deferential to them and their expertise. As you know how I even pose questions, I am deferential to opinions, even yours. But, that doesn't mean that with my own knowledge and ability to critically read and analyze things that I can't see bias, repetitive information, or lack of insight.

 

Having written these for several years, and, having followed the Minors as well as the Majors for many years, I know how hard it is to keep track of over 600 Major League Players and thousands of Minor League players every year. I've had over 10,000 students as a teacher, and I can't keep track of them all, or remember all of them for all of time. I also know how hard it is to write a list of top-10, 20, 30, or even 50 prospects (like we once did) for 30 different teams. Every team needs to have a player ranked as its #1 even though Team A's #1 might not even be close to Team B's #15. Not all #1 team prospects are the same.

 

But, that's why I do like our list. We have a lot of opinions and try to come with a consensus. My opinion only counts so much, as do several others. I have my biases, as does everyone else who contributes. Hopefully by averaging things out, the biases get cancelled out, and we produce a better list rather than if only one of us produced the list. None of the contributors to this list had the rankings the same, and behind the scenes we've had lots of discussion about players and our ranking choices trying to justify our positions.

 

Like all of us, I hope that all the prospects make it, but, I also know very few of them will, in all likelihood, will. It's a tough industry, where the margins between success and failure are razor thin. 

 

Again, I have no problem admitting that I've been wrong, but I do like it when I get it right.

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49 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Do you guys have examples of some players that the “pundits” graded as good prospects but you correctly thought wouldn’t make it?

Definitely guilty of that regarding Mark Trumbo. I'm too lazy to go back and find the articles, but I never thought he'd be a major leaguer. I also missed on Cam Bedrosian and Kevin Jepsen. I also wasn't convinced Carlos Correa or Aaron Judge would be as good as they are, but those are outside the organization.

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3 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Definitely guilty of that regarding Mark Trumbo. I'm too lazy to go back and find the articles, but I never thought he'd be a major leaguer. I also missed on Cam Bedrosian and Kevin Jepsen. I also wasn't convinced Carlos Correa or Aaron Judge would be as good as they are, but those are outside the organization.

Having played along side Trumbo in HS, I can tell you I didn't understand how a kid that small and scrawny could hit the ball as far and as hard as he could. Although there was one other guy we both played Jeff Tuttle  that I thought was going to be an absolute monster but he did a ton of drugs and flamed out in the minors.

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