OC Register: Billy Eppler vows to improve Angels’ OBP in 2018

[ksangel]

12 minutes ago, totdprods said:

The only downside is this team still really needs some power added - and I don't buy that Hosmer, Nunez, or Gordon can always  post an OBP that high.

We need a blend offensively, and while OBP is rightly a concern that Eppler is (and should) prioritize, but just as much we need to cut down on strikeouts, maintain some speed (losing Maybin, Revere, and Espinosa here hurts), and add some power. 

Gordon nicely fits the speed/OBP/lead-off bill. Upton would fill the power/OBP aspect. Moustakas would provide significant lefty-power, but not much OBP, so we'd need to make that up. Hosmer had a great year and is young enough to keep developing, but his history doesn't scream that he will certainly bring power or OBP year in, year out.

Valbuena should not be discounted - his OBP was still .100+ higher than his BA, and he had an abnormally low BAbip. 

Calhoun is more iffy - he had a good '16 but his numbers and OBP had been declining gradually. I love the guy but it's hard to not think what alternatives could be out there that will be a little more stable either bringing power or OBP to the position. I wouldn't rush to move him of course, but if we see other moves shake up the needs it wouldn't surprise me if his skills and contributions become a little less crucial. 

Other than Gordon, who hit 2 last year, you should get about 35 from Trout (maybe 45+ with this lineup), 20-25 from Yelich, Hosmer and Pujols and 15-20 from Calhoun and around 10-15 from each of Simmons, Nunez and Maldonado...so how many more homers are required???  Houston's everyday eight players had 169.  This Angels eight would have 170+....

Hosmer did increase his OBP this year but has a .342 lifetime average vs. Cron at .307...I'd take Hosmer plus he's a much better defensive 1B though Cron has gotten better...plus he's just more athletic than Cron - runs the bases better...etc.  Actually stole in double digits earlier in his career and had 6 last year...can't imagine Cron ever having 6.

Yelich has a .369 OBP career wise which is what he had last year and his HR totals are going up with age...he's only 25 and had 16 stolen bases last year.

Gordon's OBP is .330 career wise so that's not too far off of .341 for last year and had 60 stolen bases last year and he's a plus defender at 2B...

Nunez goes up and down between .327 and .353 and I'd take him over Valbuena because of defense and speed - and had 24 stolen bases last year...

All in all I chose the lineup because it is more athletic / speed oriented overall at each position and it's not really that bad with regards to HR's.

I hear what you say about Calhoun but I love his grit on this team and I think there's a real bond between him and Trout/GRich.  I look at him as the Erstad of the 2002 Angels...

I also chose this because it seems realistic...one major trade, one major free agent signing and one lesser free agent signing...

[Chuck]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Sure, an ace ahead of Richards would be great but that guy is hard to find. Arguably he doesn't exist at all (Darvish and Arrieta have had issues this year). And do you want to spend all your money on a guy like that and then have Cowart at 2B, Valbuena at 3B and Cron at 1B every day?

Let me answer that...

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Hosmer is a legit left handed first baseman, just coming into his prime, yet there are questions, which means he won't make $25M per season, more likely $18M. What is wrong with that?

Also, just to point out that if they subbed out our 1B for Hosmer this year, the team OBP would've increased to .325 from .315.

Subbing out Zach Cozart for our 2B (even though he played only 122 games), would net a similar increase to .325.

Subbing out Moustakas would keep it basically the same, but add 38 HR. A guy like Todd Frazier would improve it, but his average sucks. And I like Moustakas' lefty bat.

Subbing out LF for Full time Upton would push from .315 to .319.

Subbing out CF for Trout full time would likely push from .315 to .321 (Though that's just an estimate). Keep in mind though that Trout's OBP even with his September Slump was .442, and our CF replacements hit to a .295 OBP, so those 200 AB's make a huge difference.

Essentially, swapping out all these players probably pushes the payroll to luxury tax range, but makes the offense, even with Pujols slumping and a poor bat at the C position to a .345 OBP. Which is where the Astros were, leading the league.

 

 

[Hubs]

Add a return to Calhoun and Pujols 2016 numbers and we'd be even higher.

[totdprods]

26 minutes ago, ksangel said:

Other than Gordon, who hit 2 last year, you should get about 35 from Trout (maybe 45+ with this lineup), 20-25 from Yelich, Hosmer and Pujols and 15-20 from Calhoun and around 10-15 from each of Simmons, Nunez and Maldonado...so how many more homers are required???  Houston's everyday eight players had 169.  This Angels eight would have 170+....

It's not necessarily all about the HRs; Angels we're 15th out of 15 in SLG, 14th in doubles, 13th in HR, 13th in triples...Yelich is a great 

And I agree that all of those players are typically a great balance of speed, power, and discipline...but sort of how we've seen with someone like Calhoun, if that person has a rough year either overall or in one aspect, it can really tank their contribution.  I think it's important we have one guy who is a legitimate source of power, even if it carries a little more risk.

Yelich looks like a fantastic get - young, balanced, and trending the right way, but should he have a down year his contribution isn't that much more than what we'd get with Calhoun. Or Hosmer sees his power/OBP decrease (Cron has a higher career SLG) or Nunez ages a bit (career OBP of .320, has had some knee injuries), that trio suddenly looks a lot like what we already have with a lot more money attached and that's the only part that makes me pause - plus it will cost a fortune to acquire that.

I also love Dee Gordon in that fact that even though he doesn't have a lot of power or hit a lot of doubles, his 60 stolen bases translate into a lot of singles that essentially become doubles. It isnt reflected in his SLG %, but he's essentially a doubles machine.

That's one reason I really like Upton - there's very legit power there and decent BA/OBP/speed. It's another reason I like Carlos Santana - he's as steady as one can be offensively. There are other 2B/3B options out there that would probably be safer in terms of OBP too.

Really, Nunez and Hosmer are the only ones that give me pause. I'm not sold Nunez can match his '17 campaign and think we can probably find a better OBP or pure power candidate there, by trade or Moustakas or Frazier. Hosmer's price tag gives me biggest pause - I think you can get Santana for far less and probably get a better bat.

[totdprods]

I wonder if the Marlins would bite on a Skaggs, Calhoun, and OF prospects blockbuster for Gordon, Yelich, and either their shitty vet RPs or preferably Prado. 
The Marlins would get productive players that are reasonably cheap and controllable so they still have a shot at competing. They need pitching in a bad way. They'd shed more year-to-year salary this way, enabling them to keep their franchise face in Stanton and giving them more immediate flexibility in short-term FAs to shore up needs. 

The Angels get a productive but overpaid 2B, a mega-talented OF to replace Calhoun who also makes our OF prospects expendable, and ideally, a 3B platoon-mate for Valbuena. Prado has a lifetime .845 OPS against lefties.Their payroll swells up, but they'd still likely be able to afford Upton and snag a mid-rotation arm - maybe not the most exciting arm, but something to fill in for Skaggs. Or a 1B if someone like Frazier or Santana or Morrison comes at a major bargain.

Gordon 2B, Yelich RF, Trout CF, Upton LF, Pujols DH, Cron 1B, Simmons SS, Valbuena/Prado 3B, Maldonado C
Richards, Heaney, FA Arm, Shoemaker, Bridwell for rotation, Tropeano, Ramirez, Barria for depth, Bedrosian, Parker, Middleton, Paredes, Ziegler/Tazawa for depth.

[Mark68]

I don't see what a rebuilding (again) Marlins club would see in Calhoun. He's not getting any younger.

[totdprods]

 

6 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

I don't see what a rebuilding (again) Marlins club would see in Calhoun. He's not getting any younger.

His inclusion would be less about his value to the Marlins as it would be the Angels shedding some salary and opening a position for Yelich. Think sort of like the Aybar for Simmons or Bandy for Maldonado deals. Think of it more as the Angels unloading prospects for Yelich, Skaggs for Gordon, and Calhoun for Prado - with Skaggs' and Calhoun's excess 'value' bleeding into the Yelich return. 

The Marlins don't need Calhoun but he's certainly useful and holds down the OF capably so they can feign competing (something I think that will be important for their perception as they simultaneously try to rebuild without alienating fans) after dealing any or all of Stanton, Ozuna, Yelich. They can still trade him away for prospects within a year or two (when Jahmai Jones pushes him out, haha) and get a decent haul.

[Stradling]

20 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

 

Agreed

Most here believe otherwise 

Not a single person believes otherwise.  We all want better hitters, but part of being a better hitter is working the count and taking walks.  

[eligrba]

16 hours ago, Dochalo said:

We had the worst slg% in the AL.  

....and the highest "Turn the Page %" in the majors, so it really just evens out in the end.

[arch stanton]

The Angels actually hit more home runs this season than any since 2012 when they had Trout, Albert, Trumbo, Kendrys, etc. Even if league-wide home run numbers normalize next year there should be enough power if Trout and Upton both play 150 games and Valbuena is the lefty half of a 3B platoon. If Calhoun is told he's back hitting in front of Trout I think he can manage to get an obp of .340 or so.The bottom line is getting much more obp from the right side of the IF and whatever improvement a healthier Albert can provide. Gordon makes sense since he also makes up for the speed lost with Maybin or Revere but it's still not a safe bet to expect Cron to suddenly start taking pitches

[ettin]

10 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

I would trade Calhoun and one of our prospects for Yelich. 

I've kind of soured on Calhoun's offense this season. Love his grittyness and defense, but he's way too streaky and his OBP has been pretty weak over the past 3 seasons. 

 

Although I would love for that to happen, Yelich has close to $200M in surplus value right now (4 years of control at a very reasonable contract average over 4 WAR per season = a lot). Calhoun probably has about $60M-70M in surplus value and adding in a prospect like Adell for instance probably adds about another $40M at this stage in his career. So we are about half-way there sadly.

[70runner]

I cringe when I read this "healthier Pujols" dialog.  Of course Eppler is gonna peddle this nonsense, what other option does he have?  Was there some clubhouse rule that he couldn't lose weight, get in better shape during this season?  The chances of this "38" yr old showing up at ST 40lbs lighter, well, winning the CA lottery is more likely.  Whatever version of healthier Pujols appears, Scioscia will continue his OBP challenged role in the MOTO.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 10/2/2017 at 7:43 PM, WeatherWonk said:

I'd love to see the Astros take the Boston pitching staff apart in the ALDS. I'd love to see a headline saying "Sale shelled, Astros romp, 8-2."

That first game in HOU is so important. If the Astros can win a game that Sale starts, it will be tough for the Sawks. 

good call

[JustATroutFan]

On 10/3/2017 at 1:27 PM, Chuckster70 said:

I would trade Calhoun and one of our prospects for Yelich. 

I've kind of soured on Calhoun's offense this season. Love his grittyness and defense, but he's way too streaky and his OBP has been pretty weak over the past 3 seasons. 

 

2016 was Calhoun best year. Home runs were down from the year before but he was more focus on not hitting home runs every single times up.

[stormngt]

On 10/4/2017 at 12:17 AM, 70runner said:

I cringe when I read this "healthier Pujols" dialog.  Of course Eppler is gonna peddle this nonsense, what other option does he have?  Was there some clubhouse rule that he couldn't lose weight, get in better shape during this season?  The chances of this "38" yr old showing up at ST 40lbs lighter, well, winning the CA lottery is more likely.  Whatever version of healthier Pujols appears, Scioscia will continue his OBP challenged role in the MOTO.

Somehow this remind me of narrative "Scioscia will always bat Pujols behind Trout" that many were saying in August.

[Blarg]

On 10/3/2017 at 1:27 PM, Chuckster70 said:

I would trade Calhoun and one of our prospects for Yelich. 

I've kind of soured on Calhoun's offense this season. Love his grittyness and defense, but he's way too streaky and his OBP has been pretty weak over the past 3 seasons. 

 

His OBP was exactly at his career level and within Eppler's .330 cut line. His streakiness was the problem this season which I think will resolve itself next season. Not ready to give up on him and end up with Ginger Rage beating us up every time we face him.

[greginpsca]

Just looked up Yelich's contract status.  Guaranteed thru '21. Has an option for 22. Unrestricted free agent in '23.  The most he will make in a year is $15 mil.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 10/3/2017 at 1:27 PM, Chuckster70 said:

I would trade Calhoun and one of our prospects for Yelich. 

Marlins are trying to reduce payroll and Kole makes more than Yelich.

[tdawg87]

Remember the haul Chicago got for Eaton? The Marlins will get even more for Yelich.

In other words, we aren't getting him.

[wopphil]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

Remember the haul Chicago got for Eaton? The Marlins will get even more for Yelich.

In other words, we aren't getting him.

Good point. Yelich has just as much value as Eaton, and Eaton cost the Nats a fortune.

[Tyler]

Sounds like the Angels are interested in getting better baseball players. I am good with that plan. 

[Blarg]

Maldonado .182/.182/.333/.515

Phillips .255/.269/.382/.652

Simmons .230/.287/.290/.577

Cron .222/.275/.394/.669

Pujols .284/.327/.382/.710

Calhoun .245/.363/.404/.767

Valbuena .187/.300/.467/.767

These were the September splits of player not named Trout or Upton. Calhoun played hot and cold all season, luke warm in September so was he really supposed to leap frog Pujols and bat fourth? 

How about the blind squirrel Valbuena that either hit a home run or was out? Was that really the best choice? 

Make up any reality in your head you want but the season itself said Pujols was just about the best choice to drive in a runner after Trout and Upton. 

Hopefully next year the bar rises a little higher. 

 

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 10/3/2017 at 12:31 PM, Jeff Fletcher said:

Sure, an ace ahead of Richards would be great but that guy is hard to find. Arguably he doesn't exist at all (Darvish and Arrieta have had issues this year). And do you want to spend all your money on a guy like that and then have Cowart at 2B, Valbuena at 3B and Cron at 1B every day?

With $50M to spend we should be able to upgrade the infield. I like to think Richards will be able to stay healthy next season, same with Skaggs and Heaney. Skaggs and Heaney showed some signs of being quite good at times and then turned around and were horrible in their next start. They need to become more reliable if the team is going to be successful next year. 

That being said if the offense can give these pitchers an early lead it will make it much easier for them to pitch with more confidence, instead of always trying to come from behind.

[wopphil]

It would be wonderful if we could fill a couple spots with low cost, controlled players.  Even if it meant trading prospects. It would enable us to spend in other areas of need.