OC Register: Billy Eppler vows to improve Angels’ OBP in 2018

[AngelsWin.com]

ANAHEIM — The Angels’ plan for improving in 2018 is just about as simple as it gets, so rooted in the basics of modern analytics that the words might as well have been uttered by Brad Pitt.

“Something I learned a long time ago: get that on-base percentage up,” General Manager Billy Eppler said. “Don’t make so many outs.”

One of the core changes in the game over the past 15 years has been a focus on on-base percentage instead of batting average, as espoused by A’s general manager Billy Beane and repeated on the silver screen by Pitt in the film adaptation of Moneyball.

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“The metric that has the strongest correlation to run scoring is on-base percentage,” Eppler said Monday, the first day of the Angels’ offseason. “It’s been sliced and diced every single which way under the sun.”

The Angels’ .315 on-base percentage in 2017 ranked 11th in the American League. Not surprisingly, they had the same rank in runs scored.

“I want our team on-base percentage to be .330 or higher,” Eppler said.

They were particularly deficient at first base (.294) and designated hitter (.290), which are supposed to be two of a team’s most productive offensive positions. They also lagged at catcher (.263) and second base (.274), but those are more defensive positions, and the Angels got the defense they wanted for much of the season at both spots, at the expense of offense.

As for which particular holes Eppler plans to fill with higher on-base percentage players, he was predictably noncommittal.

“I’m going to look to improve anywhere possible,” he said.

You can rule out the Angels upgrading at center field or shortstop, patrolled by Mike Trout and Andrelton Simmons. They also seem to be content with Martin Maldonado behind the plate, believing that he can bring his offense up to match his defense with a year of adjustment to the heavy workload.

If Justin Upton chooses not to exercise his opt-out, that takes care of left field. It’s also likely, although less certain, that the Angels are satisfied with Kole Calhoun in right field.

And the designated hitter, Albert Pujols, is obviously not going anywhere. The Angels hope the improvement there can come simply from Pujols being healthier and in better shape.

So that leaves three spots: first, second and third base.

The Angels have Luis Valbuena to play first or third, and streaky C.J. Cron at first, but there is room to upgrade. At second, the Angels don’t really have an in-house option, with Kaleb Cowart still showing his offensive shortcomings in his brief trial in 2017.

Free agent infielders Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Zack Cozart could all be fits for the Angels, as could free agent outfielders J.D. Martinez and Jay Bruce, if the Angels need to replace Upton.

Don’t expect the Angels to use all of their available cash — perhaps $50 million to $75 million, before exceeding the luxury tax threshold — on free agents to fill those holes, though.

“It can’t all be solved through free agency, and I don’t think that’s a very productive way to go for the health of the organization,” Eppler said. “My goal is to use the free agent market to supplement.”

Whatever big-ticket players the Angels acquire — whether from trades or free agency — are likely to be position players. Eppler and Manager Mike Scioscia both expressed confidence on Monday that the answer to most of their pitching issues are currently in-house.

Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs — arguably the Angels’ three most talented pitchers — combined to start 27 games in 2017. While all missed significant time during the season, they all finished it healthy.

“I don’t think it’s a wing and a prayer to think Garrett Richards is going to go out and start 25 games,” Scioscia said. “I don’t think it’s a stretch to say Andrew Heaney will start 20, even if he has setbacks. You hope they never do. You hope for 33 starts.

“You are talking about just those three guys, an extra 40 starts. I think you’re looking at a deeper pitching staff with the probability that you’ll get to a certain point in the game more often.”

Eppler also seems to have modest goals for a more competitive rotation. He said said if the Angels can get just 600 innings out of their top five starters, “it’s going to be a real positive outcome.” That’s only 120 innings per starter, a rather low threshold that they still haven’t been able to meet.

“I don’t look at it as blind optimism, like we’re closing our eyes and blowing out candles on a birthday cake to get better,” Eppler said. “It’s the players giving us that belief.”

In addition to Richards, Heaney and Skaggs, Eppler added Matt Shoemaker, JC Ramirez, Parker Bridwell, Nick Tropeano and prospect Jaime Barria to what he considers his eight-man starting depth chart. He said he also hopes to add a couple more, although it doesn’t sound like that would include a marquee free agent like Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta.

“Do I need more starting pitching to emerge? Yes,” Eppler said. “Does that mean it has to be a major league bona fide starter that doesn’t have flexibility? No it doesn’t. It just has to be a starting pitcher that we feel could go into Triple-A or the major leagues.”

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[GrittyVeterans]

Thank God. Other than Trout they were downright pathetic in that area this season

[Troll Daddy]

Get better hitters would help!

Houston were 1st in OBP .349

Houston were also 20th in walks 509

Angels were 17th in walks 523

Angels were 23rd in OBP .315

[WeatherWonk]

Don’t expect the Angels to use all of their available cash — perhaps $50 million to $75 million, before exceeding the luxury tax threshold — on free agents to fill those holes, though.

“It can’t all be solved through free agency, and I don’t think that’s a very productive way to go for the health of the organization,” Eppler said. “My goal is to use the free agent market to supplement.”

*****************

Well, since we have very little in our farm system to trade, and we are not likely to trade Trout, Simmons, Maldonado, Calhoun or Upton, this seems to indicate that Valbuena and/or Cron will be traded or their positions upgraded through free agency. They are very low OBP hitters. 

It's a strange time to be following baseball. OBP is supposedly king, yet there a tons of guys who swing for the fences, hit HRs, strike out alot...........and have low OBP. 

Personally, I would rather have a guy hitting .290 with an OBP of .340 than a guy hitting .270 with an OBP of .350. Especially on a team with a bunch of other low OBP hitters. Hits bring runners around more effectively than walks.

[WeatherWonk]

4 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Get better hitters would help!

Houston were 1st in OBP .349

Houston were also 20th in walks 509

 

THAT'S the kind of team I want! Houston also struck out the least!!! 

20th in walks, yet they led all of baseball in runs scored. Yeah, baby!!!!!

Good things happen when you make contact. Bad things happen when you don't.

[Troll Daddy]

 

2 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

THAT'S the kind of team I want! Houston also struck out the least!!! 

20th in walks, yet they led all of baseball in runs scored. Yeah, baby!!!!!

Good things happen when you make contact. Bad things happen when you don't.

Agreed

Most here believe otherwise 

[WeatherWonk]

I'd love to see the Astros take the Boston pitching staff apart in the ALDS. I'd love to see a headline saying "Sale shelled, Astros romp, 8-2."

That first game in HOU is so important. If the Astros can win a game that Sale starts, it will be tough for the Sawks. 

[JustATroutFan]

Taking more walks would help. Remember when Bobby Abreu was here in 2009? Figgins' last season with the Angels was that same year and I think he led the league in walks that year by becoming more patient than he had ever been up to that point. 

[Ohtaniland]

 

“I want our team on-base percentage to be .330 or higher,” Eppler said.

They were particularly deficient at first base (.294) and designated hitter (.290), which are supposed to be two of a team’s most productive offensive positions.

 

This is going to be expensive to fix. 

[tomsred]

Here's where I would predict the possible help will come from in 2018, somewhere from this group of players (2017 OBP in parenthesis):

Cozart .385, Hosmer ( .385), Hernandez (.373), Kendrick (.368), Phillips (.351), Nunez (.341).

[Junkballer]

 

4 hours ago, AngelsWin.com said:

And the designated hitter, Albert Pujols, is obviously not going anywhere. The Angels hope the improvement there can come simply from Pujols being healthier and in better shape.

They misspelled pray.

[SoWhat]

According to reports, Jeter wants to trim the Marlins payroll down to $50-55M, if that's true, Eppler should kick the tires on Yelich. The Angels have the prospects to get a deal done, although it'd cost most of the few top prospects they have, which I'd be ok with since three of our top five prospects are outfielders (Adell, Jones, Marsh) and if Upton opts-in the OF would be set for the next 4 years. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Whatever big-ticket players the Angels acquire — whether from trades or free agency — are likely to be position players. Eppler and Manager Mike Scioscia both expressed confidence on Monday that the answer to most of their pitching issues are currently in-house.

*******************

So much for everyone that wanted to to get a true Ace or even a #3 starter. We will be going with Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Shoemaker, Tropeano, Bridwell, and possible Ramirez depending on how well stem cell injections work for him. Hopefully resigning Petit, and others in the pen that warrant or need it, to keep the pen as close as to what is now as possible.

[GrittyVeterans]

12 minutes ago, SoWhat said:

According to reports, Jeter wants to trim the Marlins payroll down to $50-55M, if that's true, Eppler should kick the tires on Yelich. The Angels have the prospects to get a deal done, although it'd cost most of the few top prospects they have, which I'd be ok with since three of our top five prospects are outfielders (Adell, Jones, Marsh) and if Upton opts-in the OF would be set for the next 4 years. 

Yelich is one of the few guys I'd give up a top prospect or two for. He's young, puts up a good WAR every season, gets on base, and is a local guy to boot

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

5 minutes ago, SoWhat said:

According to reports, Jeter wants to trim the Marlins payroll down to $50-55M, if that's true, Eppler should kick the tires on Yelich. The Angels have the prospects to get a deal done, although it'd cost most of the few top prospects they have, which I'd be ok with since three of our top five prospects are outfielders (Adell, Jones, Marsh) and if Upton opts-in the OF would be set for the next 4 years. 

Yelich is only making ~$7M, that's pretty reasonable for the season he had. I wonder if they would want to trade a player with such a team friendly contract as that. Stanton on the other hand is owed a lot of money for a LONG time. I'm sure he is out of our price range but someone will trade for him.

So you would trade Calhoun for...?

[GrittyVeterans]

50 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Yelich is only making ~$7M, that's pretty reasonable for the season he had. I wonder if they would want to trade a player with such a team friendly contract as that. Stanton on the other hand is owed a lot of money for a LONG time. I'm sure he is out of our price range but someone will trade for him.

So you would trade Calhoun for...?

Getting the payroll down to 50 million would mean that the average player on the roster will be making $2 million. League minimum is like 600K. If Jeter truly wants to get to 50 million, then both Yelich and Stanton are moving

[SoWhat]

1 hour ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Yelich is only making ~$7M, that's pretty reasonable for the season he had. I wonder if they would want to trade a player with such a team friendly contract as that. Stanton on the other hand is owed a lot of money for a LONG time. I'm sure he is out of our price range but someone will trade for him.

So you would trade Calhoun for...?

 

22 minutes ago, GrittyVeterans said:

Getting the payroll down to 50 million would mean that the average player on the roster will be making $2 million. League minimum is like 600K. If Jeter truly wants to get to 50 million, then both Yelich and Stanton are moving

This

Then package Skaggs in a deal for Cesar Hernandez. Trade Calhoun for a middle of the rotation arm to replace Skaggs. Sign Carlos Santana.

Hernandez-Yelich-Trout-Upton-Santana

BAMMM, OBP galore 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

20 minutes ago, GrittyVeterans said:

Getting the payroll down to 50 million would mean that the average player on the roster will be making $2 million. League minimum is like 600K. If Jeter truly wants to get to 50 million, then both Yelich and Stanton are moving

And one player making $7M would make it $55M. A lot of the team will be making $500,000 so some players will make more. If the whole team made league minimum that's $14M leaving room for a few vets.

Minimum salary: The Major League minimum salary will increase from $535,000 in 2017; to $545,000 in 2018; $555,000 in 2019; and be subject to a cost-of-living adjustment in 2020 and 2021.

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, SoWhat said:

 

This.

 

Then package Skaggs in a deal for Cesar Hernandez. Trade Calhoun for a middle of the rotation arm to replace Skaggs. Sign Carlos Santana.

Hernandez-Yelich-Trout-Upton-Santana

BAMMM, OBP galore 

Haha, it's cute that you think Pujols still wouldn't bat 4th.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

7 minutes ago, SoWhat said:

 

 

Then package Skaggs in a deal for Cesar Hernandez. Trade Calhoun for a middle of the rotation arm to replace Skaggs. Sign Carlos Santana.

Hernandez-Yelich-Trout-Upton-Santana

BAMMM, OBP galore 

That's a wet dream

[GrittyVeterans]

8 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

And one player making $7M would make it $55M. A lot of the team will be making $500,000 so some players will make more. If the whole team made league minimum that's $15M leaving room for a few vets.

Well I've always been on board with just saying fuck it and getting Stanton.

That solves an OBP issue and a power issue. Trade Calhoun for a starter, trade some prospects for Cesar Hernandez. Offense solved.

Seriously, if you are going to spend 22 million on Moustakas, you might as well spend 30 million and a couple prospects on Stanton...He's the one superstar in his prime on the market.

[IEAngelsfan]

2 minutes ago, GrittyVeterans said:

Well I've always been on board with just saying fuck it and getting Stanton.

That solves an OBP issue and a power issue. Trade Calhoun for a starter, trade some prospects for Cesar Hernandez. Offense solved.

Seriously, if you are going to spend 22 million on Moustakas, you might as well spend 30 million and a couple prospects on Stanton...

Can you imagine an outfield of Trout, Stanton and Upton?

Yeah, I know, but one can dream.

[SoWhat]

7 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

That's a wet dream

Lol I don't expect any of that to happen. Its just fun to bullshit about hypothetical moves during this time of year. The postseason hasn't even started and I'm anxious for it to end. 

[ettin]

1 hour ago, SoWhat said:

According to reports, Jeter wants to trim the Marlins payroll down to $50-55M, if that's true, Eppler should kick the tires on Yelich. The Angels have the prospects to get a deal done, although it'd cost most of the few top prospects they have, which I'd be ok with since three of our top five prospects are outfielders (Adell, Jones, Marsh) and if Upton opts-in the OF would be set for the next 4 years. 

I would love Yelich too but between his incredible production, really inexpensive contract, and years of control he will be nearly impossible for us to obtain unless we take on another bad contract or something. He really is that valuable.

[SoWhat]

Just now, ettin said:

I would love Yelich too but between his incredible production, really inexpensive contract, and years of control he will be nearly impossible for us to obtain unless we take on another bad contract or something. He really is that valuable.

I thought about the idea of taking on a bad contract to make it work also. Doesn't Wei-yin Chen have a hefty contract they'd love to get out from under?