Is Mike Trout winning MVP again?

[moccasin]

I just checked fangraphs WAR, and shockingly realized that he is only 0.4 points behind Altuve for the lead. His WPA(clutchness) beats everybody by a mile, and if the Angels actually make the postseason, it's going to be hard to justify not voting for him again. He is on pace to qualify for the batting title too, especially if MS puts him in the 2 spot.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=300&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

2 weeks ago, Altuve had a lead of about 1.5 points so I can't really see Altuve clinging on to the lead here. He might even start resting toward the end of the season.

 

[wopphil]

Gonna be extremely difficult for Trout to take it. I think it will take a combination of him having an absolutely insane September, combined with Altuve cooling off, combined with the Angels taking a WC spot. And even that might no be enough.

[bloodbrother]

Yeah, he needs all of those to likely happen to give himself a shot but gotta think voters hold the games missed against him. Sucks he got hurt because he was having one of those season for the ages type years. Could have been looking at 50+ HR, 30 SB to go along with an eye popping slash line.

[totdprods]

At the very least, I hope he finishes second just to keep that streak going. To me, the fact that he's only ever finished 1st or 2nd every year is almost more impressive.

[jsnpritchett]

This is exactly why you can't just rely on WAR to determine the best player.  Different sites have very different formulas for what goes into WAR.  Baseball Prospectus has Trout and Altuve tied in WAR, and 1.2 behind major league leader Stanton.  Baseball Reference has Trout 1.5 points behind major league leader Altuve, with Stanton 10th overall (Trout is 11th).  Fangraphs has Trout .4 behind major league leader Altuve, with Stanton 11th, with Rendon 4th (he's 7th in Baseball Prospectus, and not even in the top 10 in Baseball Reference).

 

[fan_since79]

His month so far:

.367/.506/.767

17 games, 16 runs, 7 HR, 14 RBI, 16 BB

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=troutmi01&t=b&year=2017#873-889-sum:batting_gamelogs

[TroutAdell]

With 40 games remaining he needs to average 4 plate appearances a game to reach 502, the requied amount to qualify for the batting title. Absent this he has not shot. If he is just about to enter his prime his numbers the next few years could be staggering.

[fan_since79]

4 minutes ago, TroutTrumbo said:

With 40 games remaining he needs to average 4 plate appearances a game to reach 502, the requied amount to qualify for the batting title. Absent this he has not shot. If he is just about to enter his prime his numbers the next few years could be staggering.

This is the only reason I can stand to see Pujols in the three-spot, because if he were to be moved down Trout would probably also be moved and get fewer PA's.

 

[floplag]

if we miss the post, the point is moot.  

[fan_since79]

Trout's OPS+ of 211 is far and away the best in the majors. Altuve is second at 174 and Joey Votto third at 169. The media darling Judge is in sixth place.

 

 

Edited August 20, 2017 by fan_since79

[Second Base]

4 AB's a game is reasonable. We are in the middle of a playoff race, so he isn't coming out of the lineup.

If Trout stays scorching hot like he has been all season (or maybe this is the new norm and he's just that much better than everyone else), it won't matter what Altuve does. A slump would help but it really doesn't matter. 

If Trout wins the MVP it would probably be one of those career defining moments where the nation finally realizes what we've known for 5 years now. 110 games of Trout is more valuable than 160 of anyone else in baseball.

[fan_since79]

Trout's 2017 numbers over a full 162 games look like this:

55 home runs, 123 RBI, 127 Runs

[Docwaukee]

Sometimes I get the feeling that (up until last year anyway)  the writers were looking for reasons to vote for someone else besides Trout because he didn't put up gaudy offensive numbers in any particular category or because the team wasn't doing well.  But I think 2016 made him the default.  They might still give it to Altuve but I think it's Trout's to lose and if they continue to vie for the WC slot, he'll get it even if we don't make it.  

[stormngt]

2 hours ago, TroutTrumbo said:

With 40 games remaining he needs to average 4 plate appearances a game to reach 502, the requied amount to qualify for the batting title. Absent this he has not shot. If he is just about to enter his prime his numbers the next few years could be staggering.

Play every game and angels need to get at least 2 men on base each game and he makes it.

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 hours ago, totdprods said:

At the very least, I hope he finishes second just to keep that streak going. To me, the fact that he's only ever finished 1st or 2nd every year is almost more impressive.

Same here, i want to see the streak stay in play.

[ten ocho recon scout]

He'll miss the qualified at bats in sept when the race gets tight and hes walked 50 times...

[happybat4]

3 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

He'll miss the qualified at bats in sept when the race gets tight and hes walked 50 times...

They go off plate appearances not at bat's. 

[Blarg]

The MVP doesn't have a qualifier for at bats. You're thinking batting title. 

[Tank]

4 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

This is exactly why you can't just rely on WAR to determine the best player.  Different sites have very different formulas for what goes into WAR.  Baseball Prospectus has Trout and Altuve tied in WAR, and 1.2 behind major league leader Stanton.  Baseball Reference has Trout 1.5 points behind major league leader Altuve, with Stanton 10th overall (Trout is 11th).  Fangraphs has Trout .4 behind major league leader Altuve, with Stanton 11th, with Rendon 4th (he's 7th in Baseball Prospectus, and not even in the top 10 in Baseball Reference).

 

You e listed three different versions of WAR. Stanton leads one of them but is tenth in another. That seems to weaken the whole argument, at least for me, in support of this as a meaningful stat.

[moccasin]

I believe the batting title qualifier is based on PA as well.

Anyway, what I'm looking forward to the most is, the Angels making the postseason, and it resulting in the reversing of the criteria people have held against Trout in their faces.

People have been saying that the Angels could have "Not made the playoffs" without Trout. 

But if the Angels make it this year, you can now say that the Astros would have made the playoffs without Altuve, but the Angels wouldn't have without Trout.

If they come very close in WAR, that should become the tie breaker.

 

[Tank]

I'm guessing Aaron Judge has a good chance to win MVP, not because he deserves it but because of his power numbers, he's a Yankee, and the HR derby.

[jsnpritchett]

5 minutes ago, Tank said:

You e listed three different versions of WAR. Stanton leads one of them but is tenth in another. That seems to weaken the whole argument, at least for me, in support of this as a meaningful stat.

Yes, that was the whole point of my post.  It's also not a stat the average person can quickly calculate--or even explain.

[WeaverFever]

Just a question here.... MVP stands for the Most Valuable Player no?? Is it just me or does Mike Trout get fuxked over the years. Yes, Altuve is having an unbelievable year. But his team is also having a unbelievable year. Mike Trout and Simba are carrying this team. 

[TroutAdell]

5 hours ago, Tank said:

I'm guessing Aaron Judge has a good chance to win MVP, not because he deserves it but because of his power numbers, he's a Yankee, and the HR derby.

The league has caught up to Judge, his second half has been awful. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

Whether or not Trout gets to 502 PA's is irrelevant. It's not like someone could vote for him at 505 but not 495. 

If he plays the rest of the games, he'll get there or get close enough. I wouldn't worry about it.