AngelsWin.com Today: 2017 Trade Deadline Series: Introduction

[AngelsWin.com]

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Staff Writer

As the Angels enter mid-June, with July slowly creeping towards them, they find themselves 13 games back in the A.L. West behind the dominating Houston Astros.

Clearly this deficit will be a steep hill to climb and combined with the loss of superstar Mike Trout to the disabled list for at least the next 5-8 weeks it is becoming increasingly clear that, barring a massive winning streak between now and the middle of July that keeps the team in the Wild Card conversation, Billy Eppler needs to position the team as a seller leading up to the trade deadline on July 31st, 2017.

This trade deadline, as FoxSports.com Ken Rosenthal detailed in late January, could prove to be a busy one. The Angels are actually reasonably well positioned to make either some lateral moves, if they are still in the Wild Card hunt, or conduct a full fire sale of their short-term assets if they are out of the race by mid-to-late July.

With this potential sell-off positioning in mind, Angelswin.com would like to present the 2017 Trade Deadline Series where we will focus on and pinpoint a set of teams that are the most likely to be in the playoff discussion, identify their general areas of need, and determine which, if any, Angels players might be of interest to them in possible trade deadline deals.

As Angelswin.com described in the Primer Series over the winter, Billy Eppler accumulated several players to compete in 2017 and, if the teams season did not break right, act as potential trade chips at the deadline.

The following players seem like surefire trade candidates that Eppler will shop to the other 29 teams:

• Bud Norris
• Yusmeiro Petit
• David Hernandez
• Danny Espinosa
• Doug Fister
• Yunel Escobar
• Cameron Maybin
• Ben Revere
• Jesse Chavez
• Eric Young Jr.
• Andrew Bailey
• Cliff Pennington

Most of these guys have low range trade value but could bring back needed depth, role players, and prospects that could be contributors in the future.

In addition to these twelve players, the following members of the team could potentially be bandied about in trade discussions as well:

• Huston Street
• Ricky Nolasco
• Matt Shoemaker
• C.J. Cron
• Blake Parker
• Martin Maldonado
• Carlos Perez
• J.C. Ramirez

Now to be clear this second group of players is less likely to be traded than the first group above. This is primarily due to the fact that all eight of these guys have more than one year of control and/or they could be important contributors to the Angels future success.

Billy Eppler has and will be busy as he attempts to move rental and, perhaps, controllable assets to re-position the Angels for the second half of 2017 and the remainder of Mike Trout’s years of control. The team, despite being 13 games back in the A.L. West, is only 2 games back of the 2nd Wild Card berth as of June 10th, 2017.

If they can stay afloat until Trout returns Eppler will almost assuredly deal one or more players in an attempt to improve the squad at the deadline without expending prospect capital or unnecessarily hamstringing the team. In the likelihood we are out of the race expect a sale of any and all expendable short term assets.

In the next section we will discuss the basic methodology used for this series to help with our trade analysis.

View the full article

[Dtwncbad]

To be clear, one of the differences between group one and group two is length of remaining contract.

More control can bring back more value. . .

On that point the Angels should be AT LEAST as interested in moving players from group two.

Get something that matters.

Also, Calhoun is not listed as a potential trade candidate?  Whether you love him and want to keep him or not, the reality is Calhoun is the DNA of a player teams in a playoff run will overpay for.  Calhoun name will be the subject of a whole lot of conversations on Eppler's phone calls.

[Angel Oracle]

This is much better than the old days, when the trade deadline was June 15.

My only disagreement with the OP's post is lumping Nolasco and Street in the 2nd group.    Street seems close to retirement (injury prone), and Nolasco has been mediocre in 2017.

Plus both have a rather large option price for 2018.

[Second Base]

I remember a couple years back when the Rangers were clearly out of the race and were thought to be sellers when they acquired Cole Hamels. It was one of those deals with the future in mind, similar to the Angels acquisition of Dan Haren when they weren't in contention. 

Hamels (along with a collapse by the Angels and Astros) helped the Rangers surprise everyone and sneak into the playoffs. I could see the Angels making something along those lines happen at either 1B, 2B or LF by trading players off our major league roster and taking on an expensive contract so that they don't have to squander the prospects they have.

I don't think they'll be chasing any SP mostly because they want to see what they have in Meyer, and will also be getting Richards, Skaggs, Heaney and Tropeano all back before next offseason. I could also see them selling high on JC Ramirez and Yusmeiro Petit.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

This is much better than the old days, when the trade deadline was June 15.

My only disagreement with the OP's post is lumping Nolasco and Street in the 2nd group.    Street seems close to retirement (injury prone), and Nolasco has been mediocre in 2017.

Plus both have a rather large option price for 2018.

Those two might get us a couple of older lower level guys or a couple AAAA players which due to Eppy's acquisitions and draft's would block the kids coming up and stagnate the future. Which I believe they are pushing towards to lower the overall payroll to add a couple of high end vet FA's. When I say that I mean towards a Machado/Moose (3B has been a hole since Glaus/Figgy), Harper (well, we all know about LF) to pair with Trout, or an arm or two.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

55 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I remember a couple years back when the Rangers were clearly out of the race and were thought to be sellers when they acquired Cole Hamels. It was one of those deals with the future in mind, similar to the Angels acquisition of Dan Haren when they weren't in contention. 

Hamels (along with a collapse by the Angels and Astros) helped the Rangers surprise everyone and sneak into the playoffs. I could see the Angels making something along those lines happen at either 1B, 2B or LF by trading players off our major league roster and taking on an expensive contract so that they don't have to squander the prospects they have.

I don't think they'll be chasing any SP mostly because they want to see what they have in Meyer, and will also be getting Richards, Skaggs, Heaney and Tropeano all back before next offseason. I could also see them selling high on JC Ramirez and Yusmeiro Petit.

Agreed Scotty~

Who would/could be that Veteran option today?.... Cueto? Lynn-FA?, Gio Gonzalez? I really don't know or can find a suitable VET SP that is doing well that could be in the market in the NL. AL - Cobb-FA?

[ettin]

4 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

I remember a couple years back when the Rangers were clearly out of the race and were thought to be sellers when they acquired Cole Hamels. It was one of those deals with the future in mind, similar to the Angels acquisition of Dan Haren when they weren't in contention. 

Hamels (along with a collapse by the Angels and Astros) helped the Rangers surprise everyone and sneak into the playoffs. I could see the Angels making something along those lines happen at either 1B, 2B or LF by trading players off our major league roster and taking on an expensive contract so that they don't have to squander the prospects they have.

I don't think they'll be chasing any SP mostly because they want to see what they have in Meyer, and will also be getting Richards, Skaggs, Heaney and Tropeano all back before next offseason. I could also see them selling high on JC Ramirez and Yusmeiro Petit.

This is certainly a possibility Scotty. In fact the Angels did exactly this last year with the Hector Santiago trade.

I'm trying to keep the scope of this series relatively bounded because if I open it all the way up to ALL possibilities I could write forever about wild multiple scenarios. As you'll see in the upcoming methodology discussion I will be bounding the discussion to teams that have a reasonably relative opportunity to be in the playoff race at the deadline. It will certainly still be a long list. In fact I may, near the end of the series, explore a couple of possible scenarios similar to the Hamels example above as I have already been taking a look at possible off-season moves next year that could be executed sooner at the deadline. There is one trade in particular that I think makes sense for us long term and for the team we would be trading with that could be executed mid-season.

[Lou]

1 minute ago, ettin said:

I'm trying to keep the scope of this series relatively bounded because if I open it all the way up to ALL possibilities I could write forever about wild multiple scenarios.

Do it! 

Then @Tank can read them and give me a brief summary.

in writing 

[ettin]

5 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

To be clear, one of the differences between group one and group two is length of remaining contract.

More control can bring back more value. . .

On that point the Angels should be AT LEAST as interested in moving players from group two.

Get something that matters.

Also, Calhoun is not listed as a potential trade candidate?  Whether you love him and want to keep him or not, the reality is Calhoun is the DNA of a player teams in a playoff run will overpay for.  Calhoun name will be the subject of a whole lot of conversations on Eppler's phone calls.

Hi Dtwncbad,

I have to put some boundaries on this series and one of them is how likely we are to actually trade a player. Although I certainly don't disagree with you about Calhoun's value, it is high, but when you consider the hole it would create and the fact the Angels just extended him you have to believe it is Eppler's intent to keep him for next season. Based on that outside looking in evidence I kept him off the list. I almost kept Maldonado off the list as I think the Angels will keep him and even extend him but I leaned the other way with him.

Part of the work I've done in analyzing the trade deadline has also been preparing for the Primer Series in the off-season by looking at team payroll and the opportunities the Angels will have in free agency and some possible trade candidates. I don't think the Angels have to move Kole to be honest in order to fill the other holes we have. That can be accomplished with the large amount of free payroll and trade opportunities in my humble opinion. Time will tell the story.

[ettin]

5 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

This is much better than the old days, when the trade deadline was June 15.

My only disagreement with the OP's post is lumping Nolasco and Street in the 2nd group.    Street seems close to retirement (injury prone), and Nolasco has been mediocre in 2017.

Plus both have a rather large option price for 2018.

They are in the 2nd group because of the options. As @Jeff Fletcher recently suggested Nolasco's ability, despite the poor actual performance, to eat innings has value to teams and it is not entirely improbable that he would be worth close to what he will make next season if the Angels exercise his option. I'll note that although Nolasco has coughed up a lot of home runs his K-BB% vs. right-handed hitters is still in the 19% range which is quite good for a starter.

Street needs to get back to the team in order for him to be in any trade deadline conversation. I'm leaning towards his return in the next week or so as being enough time for him to show something leading up to the deadline. He too has the option and if he shows well enough before the deadline or even after in the 2nd half if the Angels keep him he could still be traded in the off-season potentially. It's a crap shoot with him and I'm just hoping he shows well enough that the Angels can move him for something.

Both Nolasco and Street have relatively inexpensive buyouts of their options (in fact Nolasco's is free since the Twins agreed to pick up that $1M if the option is declined). The fact that these option buyouts are cheap lends itself for any acquiring team to lower their risk profile in acquiring either one of them, particularly if the Angels eat salary in a pre-deadline deal which is also quite possible.

We should hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

[Angelsjunky]

First, as a side note Ettin, you might want to update the "5-8 weeks" for Trout. It has been two and a half weeks already, so that window has closed to 3-6 weeks, maybe even less if Trout gets his way.

Anyhow, as I see it, there are three areas that could be improved significantly:

*starting pitching

*second base

*big bat 1B/DH

Theoretically the first two could be solved from within. We still don't know if or when Skaggs and Richards will be back. Skaggs is still (supposedly) schedule for late June, while Richards is "sometime in August." And then there's Heaney, who I imagine won't be able to do more than make a few starts in September to get some game time. Even if Skaggs and Richards come back, the rotation--Richards/Skaggs/Shoemaker/Ramirez/Meyer--is hardly awe-inspiring, but certainly improved from what it is now.

Second base is a gaping hole, but could improved any number of ways: If Espinosa is able to hit .250ish from here on out, he becomes an average player. If he continues to hit .168, I can't imagine he's long for the starting lineup. I would think Cowart deserves a shot, and there's also the Eric Young experiment. Either way, between a (possibly) improved Espinosa, Cowart, and Young, second base should get better.

The last could possibly be solved from within, at least partially, if Cron ever started hitting. But we've seen little sign of it, or even that he's more than a quad-A type. Cron looked like he was ready to breakthrough last year, but has been very disappointing this year.

The team could also upgrade 3B and C, but I don't see that happening. Maldonado has been a nice solid player, and Escobar can hit a bit. The outfield looks good, at least when Trout comes back.

I haven't researched available players, but one player that I'm guessing is going to figure into your series is Yonder Alonso, who is having a great year with the bat, although the As will ask for quite a package to get him. I wonder if Nate Smith, Grayson Long, and Michael Hermosillo gets the conversation started. No high-ceiling prospects, but all solid future major leaguers.

Anyhow, regardless of what the Angels do, I really hope (and think) that Eppler will stay away from trading any of the high-ceiling prospects: Adell, Pearson, Canning, Marsh, Nonie, Jahmai, Thaiss, C Rodriguez, Duensing, Barria.

[Angelsjunky]

Part two. If the Angels slip back from the wildcard significantly, I think they'll do a massive sale on relief pitching, maybe a starter or two. They've got four relievers--Parker, Norris, Petit, Hernandez--that are exactly the type of player contending teams want to bring in for the stretch drive and playoffs. They Angels could get a nice haul of decent to good prospects for those guys - really, a good prospect for each. Ramirez might have similar trade value, and then there's a big dropoff for Nolasco and Chavez. The Angels could trade them for anything, though, to save a few million.

But even though the four relievers would be nice to have in 2018, it is a choice between:

1) Keeping the four, who all of a sudden get more expensive after having strong years, and then have a very good--but expensive--bullpen in 2018

2) Trading the four, getting a nice haul of prospects, and trusting Eppler to rinse and repeat in 2018, manufacturing a strong bullpen out of thin air

I like the second option...but again, only if they really fall behind.

[Tank]

4 hours ago, Lou said:

Do it! 

Then @Tank can read them and give me a brief summary.

in writing 

i can go ahead and tell you now, Lou: he said trade everyone except Trout, Calhoun, and Fister.

[Second Base]

I wouldn't be surprised if we flipped Cron, Shoemaker and Parker for Matt Carpenter.

[Stradling]

6 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we flipped Cron, Shoemaker and Parker for Matt Carpenter.

This is so random that you either know something or you are talking out of your ass.  I'm not really sure there's a realistic in between option.

[Blarg]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

This is so random that you either know something or you are talking out of your ass.  

[Second Base]

45 minutes ago, Stradling said:

This is so random that you either know something or you are talking out of your ass.  I'm not really sure there's a realistic in between option.

Definitely the latter.

[Dtwncbad]

6 hours ago, ettin said:

Hi Dtwncbad,

I have to put some boundaries on this series and one of them is how likely we are to actually trade a player. Although I certainly don't disagree with you about Calhoun's value, it is high, but when you consider the hole it would create and the fact the Angels just extended him you have to believe it is Eppler's intent to keep him for next season. Based on that outside looking in evidence I kept him off the list. I almost kept Maldonado off the list as I think the Angels will keep him and even extend him but I leaned the other way with him.

Part of the work I've done in analyzing the trade deadline has also been preparing for the Primer Series in the off-season by looking at team payroll and the opportunities the Angels will have in free agency and some possible trade candidates. I don't think the Angels have to move Kole to be honest in order to fill the other holes we have. That can be accomplished with the large amount of free payroll and trade opportunities in my humble opinion. Time will tell the story.

No the Angels don't have to move Kole.  They don't have to move anyone.  My point on Kole is he is the kind of player that can make a difference for a team in the hunt.  Proven matters.  I'm not in ahurry to trade Kole.  I like him a lot.  I'm just being realistic that this is the kind of player that gets you a prospect that safely projects to be a name that will written into a starting lineup for multiple seasons.

I think it is more realistic to acknowledge that Kole's name WILL be a common subject on Epplers phone, that's all.

[ettin]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

No the Angels don't have to move Kole.  They don't have to move anyone.  My point on Kole is he is the kind of player that can make a difference for a team in the hunt.  Proven matters.  I'm not in ahurry to trade Kole.  I like him a lot.  I'm just being realistic that this is the kind of player that gets you a prospect that safely projects to be a name that will written into a starting lineup for multiple seasons.

I think it is more realistic to acknowledge that Kole's name WILL be a common subject on Epplers phone, that's all.

I agree with this 100%.

[Lou]

9 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

No the Angels don't have to move Kole.  They don't have to move anyone.  My point on Kole is he is the kind of player that can make a difference for a team in the hunt.  Proven matters.  I'm not in ahurry to trade Kole.  I like him a lot.  I'm just being realistic that this is the kind of player that gets you a prospect that safely projects to be a name that will written into a starting lineup for multiple seasons.

I think it is more realistic to acknowledge that Kole's name WILL be a common subject on Epplers phone, that's all.

Why trade a guy who's name we know will be written in the lineup every day for a guy who's name we HOPE will be?

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

Why trade a guy who's name we know will be written in the lineup every day for a guy who's name we HOPE will be?

How about to address a specific positional need if you project it is far easier to replace an OF than it is to find a 3B?

[Ohtaniland]

It's really time to move all of the stop gaps and get as many prospects as you can accumulate. 

When we seriously look long term at Trout, the playoffs and championships I don't envision guys like Maybin, Revere, Pennington, Espinosa, Escobar, Nolasco, EY, Valbuena and several others as even being here when that happens so why hang on to them now? Bite the bullet, cut bait and build that farm up for a sustainable solution. If you can't move them then let it happen through attrition. 

I don't believe that there is a series of moves that can be made this summer that would satisfy the needs necessary to make us a viable contender. Eppler said that we "intend to contend" but we're not even a good pretender at this point.

If we want to keep Trout then we need to flush the toilet before he gets back. Otherwise he'll think nothing is getting done. 

[Slegnaac]

2 hours ago, CALZONE said:

It's really time to move all of the stop gaps and get as many prospects as you can accumulate. 

When we seriously look long term at Trout, the playoffs and championships I don't envision guys like Maybin, Revere, Pennington, Espinosa, Escobar, Nolasco, EY, Valbuena and several others as even being here when that happens so why hang on to them now? Bite the bullet, cut bait and build that farm up for a sustainable solution. If you can't move them then let it happen through attrition. 

I don't believe that there is a series of moves that can be made this summer that would satisfy the needs necessary to make us a viable contender. Eppler said that we "intend to contend" but we're not even a good pretender at this point.

If we want to keep Trout then we need to flush the toilet before he gets back. Otherwise he'll think nothing is getting done. 

You cannot trade all or most of those guys for "farm" level players.  If you do who is on your 25 man roster, SLC players?

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, CALZONE said:

It's really time to move all of the stop gaps and get as many prospects as you can accumulate. 

When we seriously look long term at Trout, the playoffs and championships I don't envision guys like Maybin, Revere, Pennington, Espinosa, Escobar, Nolasco, EY, Valbuena and several others as even being here when that happens so why hang on to them now? Bite the bullet, cut bait and build that farm up for a sustainable solution. If you can't move them then let it happen through attrition. 

I don't believe that there is a series of moves that can be made this summer that would satisfy the needs necessary to make us a viable contender. Eppler said that we "intend to contend" but we're not even a good pretender at this point.

If we want to keep Trout then we need to flush the toilet before he gets back. Otherwise he'll think nothing is getting done. 

Every roster has some sort term stop gaps. Maybe not as many as we do, but they're there. So it's unrealistic to expect us to part ways with all of them. I'd like to see them extend Maybin and Revere or Young as a 4th OF. 

[Tank]

10 hours ago, Slegnaac said:

You cannot trade all or most of those guys for "farm" level players.  If you do who is on your 25 man roster, SLC players?

and it would seriously waste another couple of years of Trout if you did something like that.

Edited June 18, 2017 by Tank