AngelsWin.com Today: The significance of Mike Trout’s injury

[AngelsWin.com]

By @Brent Maguire, AngelsWin.com Staff Reporter

Through 54 games in 2017, the Angels have managed to pull off a decent 26-28 record. Just consider how remarkable that is. Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney, Nick Tropeano and Alex Meyer, the makings of a potential good starting rotation, are all on the disabled list. The injuries have hit the bullpen too, sending Cam Bedrosian, Huston Street and Andrew Bailey on the shelf for an extended period of time. The offense has significantly underperformed to the tune of a 93 wRC+ and ranks 12th in the American League in runs scored, thanks to down performances from Albert Pujols, Kole Calhoun, Danny Espinosa and the trio of Angels 1st baseman(C.J. Cron, Jefry Marte, Luis Valbuena). The team has managed to hover around .500, even though their BaseRuns record says they should be a 25-29 team. The Angels have managed to do this because their bullpen has been better than expected and they have some guy named Mike Trout. Once again, Trout has been the driving force of success for the Angels but he’ll hit the disabled list for the 1st time in his incredible career.

On Sunday afternoon in Miami, Trout slide into 2nd base and appeared to hurt his thumb, although the severity of this injury was unknown until Monday night. The bad news was announced during the Angels home game vs the Atlanta Braves and it was not what the Angels, or their fans, wanted to hear.

TROUT UPDATE: Mike Trout will have surgery on Wednesday to repair UCL in his left thumb. Typical timetable for return is 6 to 8 weeks.

— Angels (@Angels) May 30, 2017

While the Angels won’t openly admit it, this is the type of injury that may derail the Angels season. It was already a question if the Angels could compete with the reigning MVP in their lineup and without him for at least a month and a half, the team would have to significantly over perform for a large sample just to stay afloat. Not only does this news suck on a team level but it sucks on a personal level for Trout, who was experiencing his best MLB season yet, which is really saying something. Through 47 games, Trout racked up 3.6 fWAR thanks to an absurd .337/.461/.742 batting line along with 16 home runs and 10 stolen bases. He was not only the main reason why the Angels were competing in most ball games but he was on pace for a record shattering season, possibly eclipsing the 11 WAR threshold that few others in MLB history have reached(all of those players are Hall of Famers). The most important aspect of this Trout injury directly relates to the Angels and their rest of the season path. There’s only one logical way for the Angels to go now.

Had Mike Trout stayed healthy and the Angels returned some pitchers, it wasn’t asinine to think the team could hover around .500, possibly get hot for a few weeks and put themselves into a Wild Card picture(they were never catching the 36-16 Houston Astros). Had that occurred, the team could have hypothetically added a few small pieces at the trade deadline, which would make a fairly big impact on the farm system and the potential 2018 roster. With Trout out for a significant amount of time, it’ll take a miracle for the team to enter this position, which means the team will look to sell for the 2nd straight season. The question is who they decide to sell and how far they want to go in this process.

There are obvious trade candidates. Cameron Maybin, Yunel Escobar, Bud Norris, Blake Parker, Yusmeiro Petit, Ricky Nolasco, Jesse Chavez, Huston Street, Andrew Bailey, Ben Revere, Cliff Pennington and Danny Espinosa are all slated to be free agents after this season. Realistically, the first 5 names on that list are the only players who will garner any significant attention on the trade block. Between those 5 players, you’re potentially looking at grabbing a handful of 40-45 FV(Future Value) prospects, which isn’t a small addition to a bottom tier farm system. It’s possible they can squeeze more value out of some of those other soon to be free agents, although those players would have to perform pretty damn well until late July for that to occur. The Angels can also look to extend some of those players, such as Maybin, Norris or Parker, who still fill holes for 2018. This is the likely route the Angels go, selling some of the rental players and going year by year with players once again this coming offseason.

There is another route the Angels could go, one that would stir up controversy. Kole Calhoun, Matt Shoemaker and Andrelton Simmons are all players who are in the middle of their prime and are under club control for very affordable prices through 2020. Trading these players would net significant prospects but would all but put the “rebuild” label on the Angels for the coming seasons, which creates a huge dilemma while employing Mike Trout in center field through that same time period. This route is unlikely, although the team may be headed for their 2nd straight losing season and 3rd straight season with 85 or fewer wins, which means exploring another route isn’t entirely out of the question. It probably won’t happen but Billy Eppler has to get creative with planning out his next few seasons so a big and unexpected trade may be in the cards.

Mike Trout’s loss for the Angels is more than just the team losing its’ best player for 6-8 weeks. It represents the type of loss the team could ill afford, given the lack of depth across the roster, and makes competing the rest of the season an unlikely circumstance. Without Trout, the Angels just don’t have enough star power or roster depth to compete night in and night out, which means the option of selling players is going to be talked about all the way through the trade deadline. Another aspect of this Trout injury is the timing of it. In June alone, the Angels have a 6 game stretch vs the Yankees and Astros, then a 10 game stretch vs the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers later in the month. Half of their games in the month of June will come against legitimate top tier teams, meaning Trout’s absence will be felt even more.

Angels general manager Billy Eppler had a fine offseason, acquiring enough players to supplement the 2017 Angels roster without crippling payroll flexibility or wiping out the farm system. Unfortunately for Eppler and the Angels, the team was walking on eggshells, hoping to stay healthy and get enough performances from players to be in the mix for a Wild Card spot. The opposite has occurred, however, as the team has now lost its’ best player and a huge chunk of the pitching staff, all before the month of May has concluded. If the team manages to stay in the race until Mike Trout returns, Mike Scioscia deserves another 10 year extension(*sarcasm on*). The likelihood is the team swims into treacherous waters and enters selling mode for the 2nd straight season. Tough times in Anaheim are coming.

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[totdprods]

Eh, I feel like there are two outcomes here. Either the rest of the team continues to play as they have all year, in which case we weren't likely going to make the playoffs regardless of how good Trout was, or this team reacts positively to this and rights the ship well enough to stay right where they're at, .500ish and in the WC hunt, at which point a Trout return in 6-8 weeks would still probably keep them around the same odds they have now. 

This team wasn't going to go anywhere with Mike Trout shouldering the entire team all year, so if they don't respond now, it probably wasn't going to happen even if he was healthy. And frankly, we have enough underperforming players that if a few do turn it around, I think we can stay in the mix. 

Wild Card is entirely up in the air still. Houston is the only team really running away with anything.

[Brent Maguire]

14 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Eh, I feel like there are two outcomes here. Either the rest of the team continues to play as they have all year, in which case we weren't likely going to make the playoffs regardless of how good Trout was, or this team reacts positively to this and rights the ship well enough to stay right where they're at, .500ish and in the WC hunt, at which point a Trout return in 6-8 weeks would still probably keep them around the same odds they have now. 

This team wasn't going to go anywhere with Mike Trout shouldering the entire team all year, so if they don't respond now, it probably wasn't going to happen even if he was healthy. And frankly, we have enough underperforming players that if a few do turn it around, I think we can stay in the mix. 

Wild Card is entirely up in the air still. Houston is the only team really running away with anything.

Honestly, these past 2 years might be a wake up call for the organization. The injuries were obviously unavoidable but the lack of depth that has been exposed across the entire roster has been pretty staggering, including the minor league level. I do agree that this injury might not impact anything in the long run but my biggest concern was the team was being 7-8 games out in July and deciding to buy pieces rather than sell and recoup value for 2018(and beyond). As I mentioned in the article, the team can still hypothetically keep certain players like Maybin or Parker and try to re-sign them but they might benefit from selling high on guys like Norris and Parker. Eppler showed he could build a bullpen on the fly this year so getting some prospects to beef up the farm system might be a good approach.

As for the Wild Card situation, I just don't envision them maintaining a pace to keep them in the picture. Whoever doesn't win the AL East likely takes 2 Wild Card spots(Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Toronto). Like I said in the article, it'd be a borderline miracle if they're still hovering around .500 by the time Trout comes back. 

[Chuck]

Could someone bean Pujols in the leg (no injuries as a result) an effort to ignite this stagnant offense?

Losing Jered Weaver was necessary, but we also lost someone who would blow teammates up and get pissed when it was warranted. 

There is literally ZERO emotion from these guys on the field and from what I can tell, even in the dugout. 

[Chuck]

btw... Good article, @Brent Maguire. 

I'm still a bit bummed after the news yesterday combined with witnessing yet another impotent effort from the offense. Didn't help that Nolasco sucked too.

[yk9001]

He will also break his five year streak of finishing first or second in MVP voting every full season he's played.

[Brandon]

5 minutes ago, yk9001 said:

He will also break his five year streak of finishing first or second in MVP voting every full season he's played.

i think he still gets this if he plays like he did before injured and is out no more than two months. comeback for august and september, but also needs aaron judge to slow down and also hope no one creeps up into the conversation.

voters will be sympathetic to being out injured. he'll still get votes even if he was out for the year. i think it's stronger for him if he comes back and rakes.

[Chuck]

6 minutes ago, yk9001 said:

He will also break his five year streak of finishing first or second in MVP voting every full season he's played.

If Trout comes back and plays exactly the way he did before getting injured, I'm guessing he gets it. 

I bet he finishes with a .330/.420/.600 slash line with 30 HR and 15 SB. That at least gets him a 2nd place finish for the AL MVP.

[Troll Daddy]

Nothing gets older than hearing the team has no emotion because they lost a game#bullshit

 

[Brent Maguire]

49 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

btw... Good article, @Brent Maguire. 

I'm still a bit bummed after the news yesterday combined with witnessing yet another impotent effort from the offense. Didn't help that Nolasco sucked too.

It's disheartening. I've maintained that the Angels are still a very watchable team because Mike Trout is doing things very few other players have ever done. Without him on the field, it becomes a hell of a lot tougher to watch this team. 

[Brent Maguire]

46 minutes ago, yk9001 said:

He will also break his five year streak of finishing first or second in MVP voting every full season he's played.

I actually think he still finishes top 2. He got off to such an absurd start that there's a real chance he still finishes the season with 6+ WAR, 25+ homers and 20+ stolen bases. Right now, Aaron Judge has a good chance to run away with the award, however. He's on pace to hit 35-40 homers with good defense while playing for a rejuvenated Yankees squad that may win the division. That's going to be a tough narrative for Trout to overcome, given the state of the Angels and Trout's injury. 

[Angelsjunky]

We don't know when Trout will be back - it could be five weeks, it could be ten or more. 6-8 is an estimate. But more importantly, we don't know how he'll play when he gets back. He could hit .250 with no power. These injuries take time to heal.

Regardless, Trout won't play more than 110 games or so. George Brett won the 1980 AL MVP playing 118 games, but he also hit .390. Now if Trout comes back hitting like he was hitting, AND pushes the Angels to a wildcard berth, he could win the MVP. But that is threading the needle.

[fan_since79]

2 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Could someone bean Pujols in the leg (no injuries as a result) an effort to ignite this stagnant offense?

Losing Jered Weaver was necessary, but we also lost someone who would blow teammates up and get pissed when it was warranted. 

There is literally ZERO emotion from these guys on the field and from what I can tell, even in the dugout. 

Scioscia has been chewing his sunflower seeds with a little more energy, but other than that, nothing.

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

32 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Regardless, Trout won't play more than 110 games or so. George Brett won the 1980 AL MVP playing 118 games, but he also hit .390. Now if Trout comes back hitting like he was hitting, AND pushes the Angels to a wildcard berth, he could win the MVP. But that is threading the needle.

I'll be OK with this injury if that happens. 

[fan_since79]

1 hour ago, Troll Daddy said:

Nothing gets older than hearing the team has no emotion because they lost a game#bullshit

 

You're always true to your moniker.

This team hasn't had much emotion since Erstad and Percival left.

 

[Troll Daddy]

9 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

You're always true to your moniker.

This team hasn't had much emotion since Erstad and Percival left.

 

You're a funny guy ... so allow me to laugh at you. Lol

[Angel Oracle]

3 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

If Trout comes back and plays exactly the way he did before getting injured, I'm guessing he gets it. 

I bet he finishes with a .330/.420/.600 slash line with 30 HR and 15 SB. That at least gets him a 2nd place finish for the AL MVP.

He has to miss no more than 5-6 weeks, in my opinion, to have a solid chance at a 4th MVP runnerup.   He's already missed some 5 games, before this happened.

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

We don't know when Trout will be back - it could be five weeks, it could be ten or more. 6-8 is an estimate. But more importantly, we don't know how he'll play when he gets back. He could hit .250 with no power. These injuries take time to heal.

Regardless, Trout won't play more than 110 games or so. George Brett won the 1980 AL MVP playing 118 games, but he also hit .390. Now if Trout comes back hitting like he was hitting, AND pushes the Angels to a wildcard berth, he could win the MVP. But that is threading the needle.

And also led the Royals to a runaway AL West title (by 20 games).

[Angelsjunky]

In case anyone's wondering...

6 weeks from yesterday is July 10, 8 weeks is July 24. The ASB is July 10-13, so let's say that the best-case scenario is that Trout is back in the lineup on July 14, which is game #93. From July 14 until the end of the year is 70 games. July 24 is an off-day, with July 25 being game #101, thus with 62 games left.

To put all of that another way, if Trout is actually out 6-8 weeks (and assuming that also includes minor league rehab), he will be available for the last 60-70 games. With 47 games played so far, and assuming no further injuries or more than a few days off, that means he'll end up with somewhere between 100 and 115 games played on the season, probably in the 105-110 range.

[Jason]

5 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

If Trout comes back and plays exactly the way he did before getting injured, I'm guessing he gets it. 

I bet he finishes with a .330/.420/.600 slash line with 30 HR and 15 SB. That at least gets him a 2nd place finish for the AL MVP.

I hope he gets back quickly. I'm so used to injured Halo players taking their sweet time healing. I'm not sure what to expect from Trout since this is uncharted territory. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

6 hours ago, Brent Maguire said:

It's disheartening. I've maintained that the Angels are still a very watchable team because Mike Trout is doing things very few other players have ever done. Without him on the field, it becomes a hell of a lot tougher to watch this team. 

Meh. Trouts fun to watch, but the real action is listening to gubi tell george brett stories.

[ten ocho recon scout]

5 hours ago, fan_since79 said:

You're always true to your moniker.

This team hasn't had much emotion since Erstad and Percival left.

 

Weaver and lackey and hunter disagree.

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

In case anyone's wondering...

6 weeks from yesterday is July 10, 8 weeks is July 24. The ASB is July 10-13, so let's say that the best-case scenario is that Trout is back in the lineup on July 14, which is game #93. From July 14 until the end of the year is 70 games. July 24 is an off-day, with July 25 being game #101, thus with 62 games left.

To put all of that another way, if Trout is actually out 6-8 weeks (and assuming that also includes minor league rehab), he will be available for the last 60-70 games. With 47 games played so far, and assuming no further injuries or more than a few days off, that means he'll end up with somewhere between 100 and 115 games played on the season, probably in the 105-110 range.

And when all the other idiot teams are scrounging to make trades at the deadline, we'll get the best player in the game. We just have to hope guys like revere can step it up and keep us in the hunt till then.

[IEAngelsfan]

15 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Meh. Trouts fun to watch, but the real action is watching gubi Tuesday.tell george brett stories.

Fify

[disarcina]

Season over....I thought Halos would win 74 games this year -- now I need to adjust that figure -- 68 ?

Some thought there were a lot of empty seats at Angels Stadium this year, just wait...........