The Battle of the RBI, Volume Eleventy...

[Inside Pitch]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18816530/detroit-tigers-miguel-cabrera-dying-art-rbi

Have at it!!!

LAKELAND, Fla. -- Miguel Cabrera doesn't care if you think the good old-fashioned RBI is the most washed-up, irrelevant stat since six balls equaled a walk. In fact, if you think that stat is so irrelevant, the Detroit Tigers' favorite RBI machine has a question for you.

"How are you gonna score," Miggy asks, "if somebody doesn't drive in the runs?"

[Blarg]

Well thanks, Miggy, you just ruined Saber metrics for everyone. 

[Ohtaniland]

Great topic IP. 

The one thing that we all understand is "who's hitting in front of you" and are there RBI opportunities available. No one understands that more than Mike Trout. 

In 2015 Mike Trout had 88 at bats with RISP. 

In 2015 Josh Donaldson had 135 at bats with RISP. 

They both ended up with similar stats (except RBI's) but Donaldson won the 2015 AL MVP award. 

 

[Angel Oracle]

Great, I missed volume threeve.

[Troll Daddy]

3 hours ago, CALZONE said:

Great topic IP. 

The one thing that we all understand is "who's hitting in front of you" and are there RBI opportunities available. No one understands that more than Mike Trout. 

In 2015 Mike Trout had 88 at bats with RISP. 

In 2015 Josh Donaldson had 135 at bats with RISP. 

They both ended up with similar stats (except RBI's) but Donaldson won the 2015 AL MVP award. 

 

I don't see how that's Donaldson fault. 

[Ohtaniland]

Just now, Troll Daddy said:

I don't see how that's Donaldson fault. 

I didn't say it was. RBI's are opportunistic and the hitters in front of Donaldson provided him with RISP.

Mike Trouts' teammates didn't give him a chance. 

[Mark68]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Great, I missed volume threeve.

I missed the twoth volume.

[tdawg87]

8 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

How are you gonna score

Yeah that about sums up my life.

[tdawg87]

How are you gonna keep out the immigrants

 

if someone doesn't build the wall?

[Ohtaniland]

RBI's.....it's part of what Triple Crowns are made of. 

But we don't acknowledge Triple Crowns here.

 

[Troll Daddy]

46 minutes ago, CALZONE said:

RBI's.....it's part of what Triple Crowns are made of. 

But we don't acknowledge Triple Crowns here.

 

I dig it ... if Trout ever won the triple crown, it would be one of his greatest accomplishments as a player.

I think he can

[yk9001]

What's always bugged me about "ribbies" is I am sitting there watching a game in, say, early august.  Its a player on the twins up at bat, and I don't follow the twins religiously. The screen shows he's got a .307 batting average.  Okay, I know that is pretty good.  7 homers.  hmmm.  I don't think he has much power.  And he's got 46 ribbies.  WHAT IN THE F DOES THAT TELL ME?  IS THAT GOOD?  IS THAT BAD?  I HAVE NO IDEA!  AND UNLESS YOU FOLLOW THIS GUY CLOSELY, YOU DON'T EITHER!

 

[Troll Daddy]

9 minutes ago, yk9001 said:

What's always bugged me about "ribbies" is I am sitting there watching a game in, say, early august.  Its a player on the twins up at bat, and I don't follow the twins religiously. The screen shows he's got a .307 batting average.  Okay, I know that is pretty good.  7 homers.  hmmm.  I don't think he has much power.  And he's got 46 ribbies.  WHAT IN THE F DOES THAT TELL ME?  IS THAT GOOD?  IS THAT BAD?  I HAVE NO IDEA!  AND UNLESS YOU FOLLOW THIS GUY CLOSELY, YOU DON'T EITHER!

 

If he had 11 rbis ... what does that tell you?

[tdawg87]

That his name is Mike Napoli

[AngelsLakersFan]

7 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

I don't see how that's Donaldson fault. 

Donaldson deserved the MVP that year in large part because of those RBIs.

[Stradling]

4 hours ago, yk9001 said:

What's always bugged me about "ribbies" is I am sitting there watching a game in, say, early august.  Its a player on the twins up at bat, and I don't follow the twins religiously. The screen shows he's got a .307 batting average.  Okay, I know that is pretty good.  7 homers.  hmmm.  I don't think he has much power.  And he's got 46 ribbies.  WHAT IN THE F DOES THAT TELL ME?  IS THAT GOOD?  IS THAT BAD?  I HAVE NO IDEA!  AND UNLESS YOU FOLLOW THIS GUY CLOSELY, YOU DON'T EITHER!

 

Well if you don't follow the guy closely how do you know whether or not 7 home runs is good or bad?  Maybe he only has 200 at bats.  Maybe he's a middle infielder or catcher.  Stats tell part of the story.  

[Docwaukee]

there is nothing wrong with someone getting credit for doing something interesting that isn't likely to be reproduced.  Being able to drive in a run at a rate that is higher than the rest of the league has merit.  

In 2015, Donaldson had a 19.7% OBI%.  Percentage of all runners on base batted in not including himself on a hr.   This was 1st in the AL.   Was that entirely attributable to him?  Probably not.  He walked 35 times in those 303 PA and had 3 hbp.  So when he put the ball in play 265 times it resulted in 95 rbi.  Or an RBI 35.8% of the time.  

In 2015, Trout had a 14.4% OBI%.  He walked 50 times and was hit by 6 pitches in 266 plate appearances.  So when he put the ball in play 210 times it resulted in 59 rbi.  Or an RBI 28% of the time.  

Does that tell us the whole run production story?  Of course not.  Is that something that can be reproducible?  probably not.  Is that a skill attributable entirely to Donaldson?  not really.  Does it mean that for whatever reason Donaldson was able to take better advantage of those opportunities to help his team?  Absolutely.  

The thing that advanced metrics don't do a very good job of is attributing value to taking advantage of an opportunity that the individual player didn't create.  Everything is neutralized to the individual.  Having guys on base.  Playing in a hitter friendly park.  Inducing grounders when you have a good defense.  

There are a number of things that have been determined as something an individual player cannot reproduce over the long term.  Is that because the stats don't bear that out for the entire league ie every player?  Could there be things an individual player does in short spans to take advantage of certain situations?  I think so.     

Looking at any stat in a vacuum is a bad idea.  

[gurn67]

If Trout, Pujols & Cron all have 100+ RBI's this season, I know that this team will score a bunch of runs regardless of their OPS's.

[yk9001]

Then get rid of homers too.  46 ribbies in August doesn't tell anybody dick about anything.  Ribbies suck.

[NorCal Halo]

Trout is just going to have to hit more home runs.

[Troll Daddy]

Which leads to the question ...

which came first 'the RBI or the Run' ?

[Angel Oracle]

The stat on Donaldson that gives other aspiring 3B hope is that he only had 34 career MLB at bats before his age 26 season with the A'th.   And that was a part-time year at the MLB.

His first full MLB season was at age 27.

[Dtwncbad]

I feel like there is a really simple context to view rbi that settles and resolves what it is, and what value it has.

RBI is a historical stat, not a predictive one.

It simply keeps track of something that happened in the past.

But it has very little predictive value. Which player is more likely to be a high impact offensive player next year, the guy that had 64 rbi or the guy that had 89 rbi?  You can't even begin to try to answer that question.  So in that predictive value, it is meaningless.

But does rbi tell a historical story?  Sure. Smith led his team in rbi two years in a row.  OK.  I now now something about Smith that already happened.

Is Smith now a good bet to be a high impact offensive player next year.  I have no idea.

Smith had the highest OPS on the team the last 2 years.  That is historical data but it also has predictive value.

Two guys with the same number of rbi can be drastically different in terms of their offensive value.

Two guys drive in 100.  Are they both great players?  No idea.

One could hit .240 batting 4th behind a mess of beast players.  And one could drive in 100 batting 8th behind a bunch of slugs.

So even at 100 rbi there is not much predictive value.

Just to be fair though, given a while season of at bats, you can get to an rbi number that is more reliable.  Rbi between (about) 50 and 110 are in the slush zone.  Once you get 115 or so rbi, it is pretty darn hard to knock in that many runs unless you are a high impact bat.

So I don't care much or even notice rbi in the slush zone of 50ish to 110ish--in terms of predictive value or as an indication of a players ability offensively.

But tell me a guy got 640 plate appearances and drove in 38?  Yeah I think I know something about that player that will likely continue.  Tell me a guy drove in 138?  Yeah, my money is on he is a legit MVP caliber offensive player.

Unless the rbi number is not in that slush zone, rbi is nothing more than a bean counting historical number.

Outside the slush zone, it is a decent bet to mean something as a predictor or as an indicator of talent.

 

[Taylor]

On 3/7/2017 at 1:23 PM, CALZONE said:

I didn't say it was. RBI's are opportunistic and the hitters in front of Donaldson provided him with RISP.

Mike Trouts' teammates didn't give him a chance. 

If Trout were truly MVP-caliber in 2015, he would have led his team to providing more RISP.

[Hubs]

MVP in general has issues. Most Valuable Player implies he carries his team on his back. I've long advocated for a "best player award" as well as elevating the best hitter in each league to Cy Young status (It's the Hank Aaron award). 

Then winning the MVP could go to players like Aroldis Chapman or a scrappy 2nd baseman who helped his team over the top. The best offensive player in the league is easy to determine, and with defense out of the equation, it could go to Miguel Cabrera, and the "Best Player" is going to be Mike Trout every year. But the "Valuable" part always upsets purists saying that a player whose team doesn't give him opportunities to drive in runs, or win games, etc.