A Hypothetical Case for Matt Wieters

[AngelsWin.com]

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer - 

I will preface this article by stating that, in the past, I have not been a fan of signing the Orioles former rising star, he just seemed to be missing key components, such as pitch framing ability, good career offensive numbers against RHP, and the previous Tommy John Surgery on his throwing arm gave me concerns about his durability.

However if you look deeper at his numbers and his performances in 2015 and 2016, you see the possible makings of a trend that may be enticing to Billy Eppler and the 2017 Angels squad.

First let us examine Matt’s defensive numbers as seen in the table below:

There are a couple of interesting items to talk about here.

Matt’s pitch framing was actually good earlier in his career (2010-2012) but fell off in recent years. It is possible that he could work on this part of his game and improve but he will likely never be an elite pitch framer. He probably will not hurt a team too dramatically in this department.

Obviously the 2014 CS% of 8% is an outlier. That was the year he tore his UCL and ultimately required TJS so his career CS% of 33% is probably a much more reliable number in regard to his ability to control the running game.

It is not fully shown here but from 2010-2012, the Fielding Bible loved his Defensive Runs Saved numbers, averaging over 13 runs saved over that 3-year period. It is not a total stretch to believe that Wieters can reclaim some of that former glory as he is further removed from his injury. FanGraphs consistently gave him positive DEF scores over the years with some large variance year to year.

On the offensive side there are some really interesting details that may be a trend or could simply be an outlier.

First let us look at his 2015, 2016, and career batted ball numbers:

The first thing that leaps off the page is the dramatically high line drive percentages over the last two years. They are significantly higher than his career numbers which indicates a clear improvement, similar to Cameron Maybin, in hitting mechanics and/or his approach at the plate. This is definitely a plus for any acquiring team.

Additionally Matt has made improvements in his all-fields approach and ability to hit line drives up the middle of the field. More importantly he does this from both sides of the plate which is another added plus to his offensive profile.

Wieters hard contact percentage has also improved against right-handed pitchers over the last two seasons. Combined with his exit velocity increase of approximately 1.5 mph in 2016 over the previous year, you begin to see the signs of a player who is recovering and improving after a serious injury in 2014.

Beyond the batted ball data, Matt had mixed actual results from 2015-2016 that may have concealed the improvements in his batted ball profile:

If you stare at the chart too long you may begin to feel like you are in choppy sea waters. There are spurts of leaps and stutters over the last two years but the general trend seems to be heading in a positive direction.

In 2015 you can see the impact of his high line drive percentages in his BABIP. He did better against RHP that year but his overall contact rate both in (Z-Cont %) and out (O-Cont %) of the zone was lower than his career average which is reflected in his higher strikeout rates.

The following year, in 2016, he significantly lowered his strikeout rates and saw a corresponding increase in contact percentage but unfortunately more of that contact was outside the zone (i.e. chasing pitches he should not chase). This led to some of his BABIP issues and poor contact from the right side of the plate which resulted in more outs.

So it appears that Wieters is fundamentally sound and, other than the arm issue, durable behind the plate. He will be a slight negative in terms of pitch framing with possible room for improvement but the most value he will bring is with his bat which is above average against LHP and appears to be improving to league average versus RHP, which, for a catcher, is quite good.

In terms of a fit with the Angels, Eppler and Scioscia could roll out Matt against RHP’s and have Maldonado hit against his more dominant side versus LHP’s. On the days Martin catches they could slide Wieters over to 1B to platoon with C.J. Cron who is dominant against RHP but has faltered versus LHP so far in his career.

The platoon at catcher would move from a Perez/Maldonado combination (approximately a 76/95 wRC+ split for RHP/LHP) to a Wieters/Maldonado tandem (approximately a 90/95 wRC+ split for RHP/LHP). Also the full-time C.J. Cron 1B scenario (approximate 119/91 wRC+ RHP/LHP split) would move to a Cron/Wieters platoon (approximate 119/114 wRC+ RHP/LHP split).

This would be an upgrade over Perez against RHP without a doubt. The overall impact to offense is slight but noticeable providing better balance to the lineup.

MLBTradeRumors.com estimated in early December that Matt would receive a 3-year, $39M deal this offseason. In the current market that may be a touch high but it is probably in the ballpark.

Castro signed at $8M per year ($24M total) while the injured Ramos signed for about $6M per season so someone like Wieters might get more, particularly if he accepts a shorter contract. However with the market in a seemingly depressed state it does not seem like Matt will get more than $10M per season.

There is a potential fit with the Angels but it is not a great one. The recent 2-year trend in Wieters line drive percentage is particularly exciting from an offensive point-of-view and there seems to be room for Matt to recover more on the defensive side as well.

In the end if the Angels plan to spend this much money it might be more worthwhile to trade for Miguel Montero, if he is available, who has superior pitch framing skills and would probably not cost us a significant amount in prospect currency. He hits RHP well which would complement Maldonado and in turn allow the Angels to roll out Jefry Marte in a platoon role with Cron if they do not trust C.J. against LHP.

Of course Matt Wieters would be a cash only deal for the Halos which would relieve Billy Eppler from not having to dip down into the barren farm system to execute another trade this offseason.

The recent rumor that the Angels are interested in Wieters may just be Jon Heyman generating clickbait, Scott Boras drumming up the value of his client, or actual interest in the former Orioles star by the Angels.

In regard to the latter there is a positional fit and Matt would improve the team, perhaps significantly if his trends continue, so it is not a stretch that he could be in an Angels uniform by the end of Spring Training.

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[totdprods]

I've come around to it quite a bit in the last couple of days. I wouldn't go beyond a one or two year around $10m annually, give or take a couple mil, but I feel that even if he performs at his averages, he adds many layers of improvement - even if just incremental - across the team. Ramos' 2-yr $22m with incentives seems like a pretty reasonable comparison. 

That said, I really wouldn't like it if it keeps us from signing one more arm. I really want one more arm. I'd prefer two more arms, but a bargain on a solid hitter that makes sense and one arm is good to me too.

Our catchers had a .271 OBP last season. If we can get that position up to a .300 OBP, we should finally have a chance at getting that from all nine spots in the batting order for the first time since 2012.

[DMVol]

I think Wieters ends up in Atlanta....he is from SCarolina and played at GaTech....the Braves are kind of like us....they have a couple of catching options but aren't particularly strong at the position.....

[AngelStew43]

I would go 2 years on Wieters, by then Ward should be ready to take over.

[ettin]

The market for free agent catchers next season is pretty deep so it would not be surprising to see Wieters sign a 2, 3, or even 4-year deal. For the Angels it might actually make sense to give him the latter to align with the Trout window through 2020. If we can keep the price around $10M per season this should be value signing if it winds up happening.

[Hubs]

As Late January approaches, his contract numbers will go down.

And I think the Angels can squeeze him in. I (and Cot's) approximate the Angels current payroll at 160ish million, including the 40-man guys and close to 170 with the other obligations. But I think if they signed him to a 2 year deal with a lower AAV, they could squeeze him in under the payroll budget and under the cap.

[Troll Daddy]

I'm on the Weiters bandwagon for now ... I'm guessing we won't see any additional pitching until March at the earliest if at all.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

1 hour ago, AngelStew43 said:

I would go 2 years on Wieters, by then Ward should be ready to take over.

hmmmm.... I no longer think about prospects until they push the Veteran out!.. = Less heart ache and arguing!..

 

Cheers!~ 

 

BWOOD

[ettin]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

As Late January approaches, his contract numbers will go down.

And I think the Angels can squeeze him in. I (and Cot's) approximate the Angels current payroll at 160ish million, including the 40-man guys and close to 170 with the other obligations. But I think if they signed him to a 2 year deal with a lower AAV, they could squeeze him in under the payroll budget and under the cap.

The Angels are at approximately $177.8M in AAV right now. I feel very confident that my number is pretty precise. The variance is probably no more than $3M give or take due to the opaqueness of Hamilton's contract, precise Benefits numbers, and as-yet-to-be-determined arbitration cases.

Projected 40-Man Roster	Projected Salary	Average Annual Value	Projected 40-Man Roster	Projected Salary	Average Annual Value
Martin Maldonado	$1,800,000	$1,800,000	Mike Morin	$535,000	$535,000
Carlos Perez	$535,000	$535,000	Jesse Chavez	$5,750,000	$5,750,000
Albert Pujols	$26,000,000	$24,000,000	Cliff Pennington	$2,250,000	$1,875,000
Danny Espinosa	$5,300,000	$5,300,000	Jefry Marte	$535,000	$535,000
Andrelton Simmons	$8,000,000	$8,285,715	Ryan LaMarre	$585,000	$585,000
Yunel Escobar	$7,000,000	$7,000,000	Andrew Heaney	$535,000	$535,000
Cameron Maybin	$9,000,000	$9,000,000	Nick Tropeano	$535,000	$535,000
Mike Trout	$20,083,000	$24,083,333	Blake Parker	$535,000	$535,000
Kole Calhoun	$6,300,000	$6,300,000	Kaleb Cowart	$535,000	$535,000
C.J. Cron	$550,000	$550,000	Daniel Wright	$535,000	$535,000
Garrett Richards	$7,000,000	$7,000,000	Brooks Pounders	$535,000	$535,000
Tyler Skaggs	$1,500,000	$1,500,000	Vicente Campos	$535,000	$535,000
Matt Shoemaker	$3,900,000	$3,900,000	Keynan Middleton	$535,000	$535,000
Alex Meyer	$535,000	$535,000	Ben Revere	$4,000,000	$4,000,000
Ricky Nolasco	$12,000,000	$10,925,683	Eduardo Paredes	$535,000	$535,000
Huston Street	$9,000,000	$8,500,000	Greg Mahle	$535,000	$535,000
Cam Bedrosian	$535,000	$535,000	J.C. Ramirez	$535,000	$535,000
Jose Alvarez	$535,000	$535,000	Nate Smith	$535,000	$535,000
Andrew Bailey	$1,000,000	$1,000,000	Nolan Fontana	$535,000	$535,000
Deolis Guerra	$535,000	$535,000	Kirby Yates	$535,000	$535,000
			Sub-Total	$142,253,000	$142,589,731
			Benefits	$14,375,000	$14,375,000
			Payouts	$24,610,000	$20,912,744
			Total	$181,238,000	$177,877,475

 

 

 

 

[Second Base]

i just don't think Scioscia is into FA catchers. He likes to put them through Camp Scioscia, likes them to be brought up in his line of thinking.

He did it with the Molinas, Mathis, Napoli, Wilson, Conger....

The only guys brought in via trade, I'm guessing we're guys that Scioscia gave the green light on like Maldonado, and Iannetta (most likely due to familiarity with their work).

It isn't coincidence that Mathis played a lot, or that Napoli was no longer a catcher with Scioscia watching his every move. It's no coincidence that Conger's defensive game fell off a cliff after he left the Angels.

I just don't think Wieters fits here. Maldonado and Perez do for sure. And from what I hear, Tony Sanchez is as hard of a worker there is, he just needs guidance, which is why he came to the Angels.

[Angelsjunky]

I'd be happy with Wieters for 2-3 years, probably three, with Ward being his backup in the third year, maybe even the second. Then the Angels could send Perez for a useful piece as he has some value.

That said, I don't think it will happen.

[totdprods]

I recall Perez getting a bunch of trade interest right after Dipoto acquired him, and I imagine he hasn't done much to hurt his trade value since then. I could live with us moving towards a Wieters/Maldonado tandem and Perez serving as depth until Sanchez/Ward show up. Perez could be a good trade piece this season to help us fill a need for '18.

[Docwaukee]

8 hours ago, ettin said:

The Angels are at approximately $177.8M in AAV right now. I feel very confident that my number is pretty precise. The variance is probably no more than $3M give or take due to the opaqueness of Hamilton's contract, precise Benefits numbers, and as-yet-to-be-determined arbitration cases.

Projected 40-Man Roster	Projected Salary	Average Annual Value	Projected 40-Man Roster	Projected Salary	Average Annual Value
Martin Maldonado	$1,800,000	$1,800,000	Mike Morin	$535,000	$535,000
Carlos Perez	$535,000	$535,000	Jesse Chavez	$5,750,000	$5,750,000
Albert Pujols	$26,000,000	$24,000,000	Cliff Pennington	$2,250,000	$1,875,000
Danny Espinosa	$5,300,000	$5,300,000	Jefry Marte	$535,000	$535,000
Andrelton Simmons	$8,000,000	$8,285,715	Ryan LaMarre	$585,000	$585,000
Yunel Escobar	$7,000,000	$7,000,000	Andrew Heaney	$535,000	$535,000
Cameron Maybin	$9,000,000	$9,000,000	Nick Tropeano	$535,000	$535,000
Mike Trout	$20,083,000	$24,083,333	Blake Parker	$535,000	$535,000
Kole Calhoun	$6,300,000	$6,300,000	Kaleb Cowart	$535,000	$535,000
C.J. Cron	$550,000	$550,000	Daniel Wright	$535,000	$535,000
Garrett Richards	$7,000,000	$7,000,000	Brooks Pounders	$535,000	$535,000
Tyler Skaggs	$1,500,000	$1,500,000	Vicente Campos	$535,000	$535,000
Matt Shoemaker	$3,900,000	$3,900,000	Keynan Middleton	$535,000	$535,000
Alex Meyer	$535,000	$535,000	Ben Revere	$4,000,000	$4,000,000
Ricky Nolasco	$12,000,000	$10,925,683	Eduardo Paredes	$535,000	$535,000
Huston Street	$9,000,000	$8,500,000	Greg Mahle	$535,000	$535,000
Cam Bedrosian	$535,000	$535,000	J.C. Ramirez	$535,000	$535,000
Jose Alvarez	$535,000	$535,000	Nate Smith	$535,000	$535,000
Andrew Bailey	$1,000,000	$1,000,000	Nolan Fontana	$535,000	$535,000
Deolis Guerra	$535,000	$535,000	Kirby Yates	$535,000	$535,000
			Sub-Total	$142,253,000	$142,589,731
			Benefits	$14,375,000	$14,375,000
			Payouts	$24,610,000	$20,912,744
			Total	$181,238,000	$177,877,475

 

 

 

 

players on the 40 man don't make league min if they are in the minors.  And I see hamilton's listed salary at 26.41 per BR.  

[Docwaukee]

8 hours ago, ettin said:

The Angels are at approximately $177.8M in AAV right now. I feel very confident that my number is pretty precise. The variance is probably no more than $3M give or take due to the opaqueness of Hamilton's contract, precise Benefits numbers, and as-yet-to-be-determined arbitration cases.

Projected 40-Man Roster	Projected Salary	Average Annual Value	Projected 40-Man Roster	Projected Salary	Average Annual Value
Martin Maldonado	$1,800,000	$1,800,000	Mike Morin	$535,000	$535,000
Carlos Perez	$535,000	$535,000	Jesse Chavez	$5,750,000	$5,750,000
Albert Pujols	$26,000,000	$24,000,000	Cliff Pennington	$2,250,000	$1,875,000
Danny Espinosa	$5,300,000	$5,300,000	Jefry Marte	$535,000	$535,000
Andrelton Simmons	$8,000,000	$8,285,715	Ryan LaMarre	$585,000	$585,000
Yunel Escobar	$7,000,000	$7,000,000	Andrew Heaney	$535,000	$535,000
Cameron Maybin	$9,000,000	$9,000,000	Nick Tropeano	$535,000	$535,000
Mike Trout	$20,083,000	$24,083,333	Blake Parker	$535,000	$535,000
Kole Calhoun	$6,300,000	$6,300,000	Kaleb Cowart	$535,000	$535,000
C.J. Cron	$550,000	$550,000	Daniel Wright	$535,000	$535,000
Garrett Richards	$7,000,000	$7,000,000	Brooks Pounders	$535,000	$535,000
Tyler Skaggs	$1,500,000	$1,500,000	Vicente Campos	$535,000	$535,000
Matt Shoemaker	$3,900,000	$3,900,000	Keynan Middleton	$535,000	$535,000
Alex Meyer	$535,000	$535,000	Ben Revere	$4,000,000	$4,000,000
Ricky Nolasco	$12,000,000	$10,925,683	Eduardo Paredes	$535,000	$535,000
Huston Street	$9,000,000	$8,500,000	Greg Mahle	$535,000	$535,000
Cam Bedrosian	$535,000	$535,000	J.C. Ramirez	$535,000	$535,000
Jose Alvarez	$535,000	$535,000	Nate Smith	$535,000	$535,000
Andrew Bailey	$1,000,000	$1,000,000	Nolan Fontana	$535,000	$535,000
Deolis Guerra	$535,000	$535,000	Kirby Yates	$535,000	$535,000
			Sub-Total	$142,253,000	$142,589,731
			Benefits	$14,375,000	$14,375,000
			Payouts	$24,610,000	$20,912,744
			Total	$181,238,000	$177,877,475

 

 

 

 

players on the 40 man don't make league min if they are in the minors.  hamilton is 26,410,000 as well.  

[Angel Oracle]

I'm in the Maldonado/Perez/Sanchez camp.

Save the Wieters money and use it on extra pitching.

The position player roster is now pretty much set.

[California Cajun]

I don't think Scioscia can micromanage Wieters.   Wieters is too big a name to be controlled.   That might eliminate his signing from consideration. 

If Scioscia has no objections to signing him, the only way I think Wieters signs is if Bora$ recommends a one year contract at an affordable rate so he can test the market next year.  

I really think Arte hates Bora$ and won't sign one of his clients unless it's a KMart blue light special.  Fat chance.

I'm still wondering why Eppler traded 26 year old Jett Bandy for a 30 year old catcher.   

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, California Cajun said:

I don't think Scioscia can micromanage Wieters.   Wieters is too big a name to be controlled.   That might eliminate his signing from consideration. 

If Scioscia has no objections to signing him, the only way I think Wieters signs is if Bora$ recommends a one year contract at an affordable rate so he can test the market next year.  

I really think Arte hates Bora$ and won't sign one of his clients unless it's a KMart blue light special.  Fat chance.

I'm still wondering why Eppler traded 26 year old Jett Bandy for a 30 year old catcher.   

I still think they looked at Maldonado and saw a player who was producing a value that matched or exceeded what they thought Bandy would do, and felt they needed to take the safer bet. Sure, Bandy may have more upside, but still has considerable bust potential. They scored a fringe pitching prospect as compensation in the event Bandy reaches that upside. 

[Stradling]

This whole Scioscia controlling catchers might be a little overblown.  If Sosh was such a control freak these days with the catcher spot and if he was the problem between him and Jerry, why the hell would Scioscia ever let Iannetta catch? 

[ettin]

13 hours ago, Dochalo said:

players on the 40 man don't make league min if they are in the minors.  hamilton is 26,410,000 as well.  

Part of his salary was picked up by the Rangers and that number looks more like his actual than his AAV which is different. I'll stick by that one as I do believe my calculation is pretty close. There is some opaqueness there though that only the Angels know the true story about but I believe my number is pretty close.

Every year I always forget some detail somewhere and yes you are correct that 15 of these guys are not in the Majors so they are not receiving the League minimum of $535K so that is a reduction of 15 x $535K = -$8.025M, so we are at $169,302,475 with a +/- variance of about a $1M-$2M now that everyone except Maldonado has settled arbitration. That variance comes strictly from the Benefits number, Maldonado's remaining arbitration case, and Hamilton's salary.

Now I feel it is precise....

[Hubs]

On January 12, 2017 at 1:46 PM, ettin said:

The Angels are at approximately $177.8M in AAV right now. I feel very confident that my number is pretty precise. The variance is probably no more than $3M give or take due to the opaqueness of Hamilton's contract, precise Benefits numbers, and as-yet-to-be-determined arbitration cases.

Projected 40-Man Roster	Projected Salary	Average Annual Value	Projected 40-Man Roster	Projected Salary	Average Annual Value
Martin Maldonado	$1,800,000	$1,800,000	Mike Morin	$535,000	$535,000
Carlos Perez	$535,000	$535,000	Jesse Chavez	$5,750,000	$5,750,000
Albert Pujols	$26,000,000	$24,000,000	Cliff Pennington	$2,250,000	$1,875,000
Danny Espinosa	$5,300,000	$5,300,000	Jefry Marte	$535,000	$535,000
Andrelton Simmons	$8,000,000	$8,285,715	Ryan LaMarre	$585,000	$585,000
Yunel Escobar	$7,000,000	$7,000,000	Andrew Heaney	$535,000	$535,000
Cameron Maybin	$9,000,000	$9,000,000	Nick Tropeano	$535,000	$535,000
Mike Trout	$20,083,000	$24,083,333	Blake Parker	$535,000	$535,000
Kole Calhoun	$6,300,000	$6,300,000	Kaleb Cowart	$535,000	$535,000
C.J. Cron	$550,000	$550,000	Daniel Wright	$535,000	$535,000
Garrett Richards	$7,000,000	$7,000,000	Brooks Pounders	$535,000	$535,000
Tyler Skaggs	$1,500,000	$1,500,000	Vicente Campos	$535,000	$535,000
Matt Shoemaker	$3,900,000	$3,900,000	Keynan Middleton	$535,000	$535,000
Alex Meyer	$535,000	$535,000	Ben Revere	$4,000,000	$4,000,000
Ricky Nolasco	$12,000,000	$10,925,683	Eduardo Paredes	$535,000	$535,000
Huston Street	$9,000,000	$8,500,000	Greg Mahle	$535,000	$535,000
Cam Bedrosian	$535,000	$535,000	J.C. Ramirez	$535,000	$535,000
Jose Alvarez	$535,000	$535,000	Nate Smith	$535,000	$535,000
Andrew Bailey	$1,000,000	$1,000,000	Nolan Fontana	$535,000	$535,000
Deolis Guerra	$535,000	$535,000	Kirby Yates	$535,000	$535,000
			Sub-Total	$142,253,000	$142,589,731
			Benefits	$14,375,000	$14,375,000
			Payouts	$24,610,000	$20,912,744
			Total	$181,238,000	$177,877,475

 

 

 

 

Cameron Maybin and Escobar's options factor into their long term deals for AAV and are not counted as one year pacts for AAV. For AAV, the portion paid by Minnesota comes off and is added to Minnesota's number, the same way we have to pay the vast bulk of Hamilton's contract both in real dollars and in the AAV Cap. The Arbitration guys are treated as one year deals, and they came in around half a million less than you have here. Players on the 40-man make league minimum when called up, but don't count towards the cap when they are down, so that will drop the overall number. And finally players on the 60-day Major League DL do collect full salaries so Heaney and Tropeano will make league min even if they never play. Hamilton counts at 25. And Skaggs is not eligible for arbitration because he didn't get enough major league time, even though he meets the Super 2 by a few days. That is according to Jeff Fletcher.

I've got them then, at closer to 173 with benefits, 153ish without. There are other things that count against the cap, but our contract payroll last year was $164ish, and 185 M against the cap including the total package for the 40 man. That is all of their salaries (150k if they've spent a certain number of days in the majors, league minimum when called up or on Major league DL, and 60ish k when never making the majors). 

Bottom line is that a 1 year, 8 M deal can make into the budget and not get us over the cap which is up to $195 next season.

 

 

[ettin]

Just now, Hubs said:

Cameron Maybin and Escobar's options factor into their long term deals for AAV and are not counted as one year pacts for AAV. For AAV, the portion paid by Minnesota comes off and is added to Minnesota's number, the same way we have to pay the vast bulk of Hamilton's contract both in real dollars and in the AAV Cap. The Arbitration guys are treated as one year deals, and they came in around half a million less than you have here. Players on the 40-man make league minimum when called up, but don't count towards the cap when they are down, so that will drop the overall number. And finally players on the 60-day Major League DL do collect full salaries so Heaney and Tropeano will make league min even if they never play. Hamilton counts at 25. And Skaggs is not eligible for arbitration because he didn't get enough major league time, even though he meets the Super 2 by a few days. That is according to Jeff Fletcher.

I've got them then, at closer to 173 with benefits, 153ish without. There are other things that count against the cap, but our contract payroll last year was $164ish, and 185 M against the cap including the total package for the 40 man. That is all of their salaries (150k if they've spent a certain number of days in the majors, league minimum when called up or on Major league DL, and 60ish k when never making the majors). 

Bottom line is that a 1 year, 8 M deal can make into the budget and not get us over the cap which is up to $195 next season.

 

 

No they do not because they are team options. Only player options or options that can turn into player options are counted towards AAV.

[ettin]

5 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Cameron Maybin and Escobar's options factor into their long term deals for AAV and are not counted as one year pacts for AAV. For AAV, the portion paid by Minnesota comes off and is added to Minnesota's number, the same way we have to pay the vast bulk of Hamilton's contract both in real dollars and in the AAV Cap. The Arbitration guys are treated as one year deals, and they came in around half a million less than you have here. Players on the 40-man make league minimum when called up, but don't count towards the cap when they are down, so that will drop the overall number. And finally players on the 60-day Major League DL do collect full salaries so Heaney and Tropeano will make league min even if they never play. Hamilton counts at 25. And Skaggs is not eligible for arbitration because he didn't get enough major league time, even though he meets the Super 2 by a few days. That is according to Jeff Fletcher.

I've got them then, at closer to 173 with benefits, 153ish without. There are other things that count against the cap, but our contract payroll last year was $164ish, and 185 M against the cap including the total package for the 40 man. That is all of their salaries (150k if they've spent a certain number of days in the majors, league minimum when called up or on Major league DL, and 60ish k when never making the majors). 

Bottom line is that a 1 year, 8 M deal can make into the budget and not get us over the cap which is up to $195 next season.

 

 

So I did make a mistake on the 15 players not on the 40-man and I addressed that above it is about $8M less. This post was made prior to the Angels arbitration decisions so that is why you see the difference there. I did not realize that Skaggs didn't have the service time locked up so I will change that to the League minimum thanks.

So yes it is not as precise as I thought. I was never a big finances guy and as I stated in response to Dochalo there is always something I miss every year in the Primer and apparently this is my mistake(s) this year.

[Hubs]

Hamilton signed 5/125. Then upon the trade, the deal was restructured to account for a lack of state income tax in Texas, the Angels saved $20M against the luxury tax. Hamilton gave up about 6M in Salary and the Rangers paid about $7. Where the other $7 in savings came from I have no idea. I guess the league minimum salary goes for the Rangers, that's 1.6? and If the savings was equal against the tax, his AAV would be $21, but since 13 and 14 had already elapsed, then does it go to the last three years? What was the contract rewritten as? 

It's confusing but save it to say, he counts around $22 M towards the AAV. 

[Hubs]

7 minutes ago, ettin said:

So I did make a mistake on the 15 players not on the 40-man and I addressed that above it is about $8M less. This post was made prior to the Angels arbitration decisions so that is why you see the difference there. I did not realize that Skaggs didn't have the service time locked up so I will change that to the League minimum thanks.

So yes it is not as precise as I thought. I was never a big finances guy and as I stated in response to Dochalo there is always something I miss every year in the Primer and apparently this is my mistake(s) this year.

I did it for years Ettin, It's a thankless task. I used to post the payroll numbers from like 2003-2012. Then I stopped worrying about it. 

I checked into options and here is how it works, buyouts are guaranteed so they are worked into the rest of the deal and then the option is counted on it's own. 

So, the players this applies to are: Nolasco jumps to 12.25M AAV, but 4 M paid by Minnesota, so it should drop on your list to $8.25. Maybin drops to $8 (9M salary, 1M of which was already applied to the previous five years as the buyout this year was guaranteed). Escobar drops to 6 as well for the same reason. Huston Street actually bumps to 9, because the buyout for 2018 is applied to the previous two years (16 at 8.5 17 at 9 plus 0.5 buyout).

[Hubs]

Also, the 15 players on the 40 man but not on the 25 man active technically have a minor league deal, but make money depending on how many years they have been on the 40 man, if they've been in the majors, and when in the majors they earn a prorated portion of the major league minimum. 

So, you are right to count them, and to count the numbers of guys who will spend the entire year on the major league DL. I am not sure if Heaney and Tropeano would get the entire salary, because they technically have options remaining, but I choose to say they do.

So not including major league contracts, I'd say the team has likely 8 or maybe 9 guys who make around 535k to 600k. They will probably also have the equivalent of 2 or 3 others because players will come up and down and not just for guys who have the minimum service. If Pujols spends a month on the DL, Cowart may remain up, but he wasn't one of the 9 guys I was counting at major league minimum who are (Cron, Marte, Perez, Alvarez, Bedrosian, Skaggs, Ramirez, and 2 of Morin, Meyer & Guerra).

So to be safe, if you included $3M to account for this whole number, plus say 14 in benefits, you'd be at 17 added to the hard AAV number.

Which puts them at $160-ish, 177 to the salary cap.

See below.

For players on their first major league contract (first time on a 40-man roster), the minimum salary when in the minors remains at $41,400.

For players on their second major league contract, and every one thereafter, the minimum salary when in the minors is $82,700.