Padres Considering Jered Weaver

[ELEVEN]

You lost me with the Pam Anderson thing.

Though I do feel that breast reduction might have helped Jered with his bad back.

[Dtwncbad]

19 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Lackey was top ten in pitcher WAR for three straight years from 2005-2007. The definition of an ace is hard to quantify because everyone has different variables. But to be in the top ten in pitcher WAR in all of baseball for three straight years is very impressive. I wouldn't argue with someone if they did say he was an ace for those three years.

But I'm definitely not judging Lackey on his win averages to determine if he was an ace or not.

Yeah, that's fair.  But two things.  I don't QUITE trust WAR as much with pitchers as I do with position players, but that is just me.  It doesn't minimize your point.  The second thing is I do trust WHIP as a quicky look at how good a pitcher is at doing his job (stopping offense from scoring runs).  Lackey's typical WHIP is very much Ervin Santana-like.  And I don't think anyone ever thought of Ervin Santana in the same exasperated breath with the beloved Lackey.

[Brent Maguire]

I think there's an argument to made for Weaver being underrated by the outside baseball world but maybe a tad overrated by Angels fans(no, he's not getting enshrined in Cooperstown). I always got the sense from the SABR community that they didn't value Weaver as much because the way he got results was unusual. Low velocity, lots of junk, deceptive, lots of weak contact and fly balls. The guy has a careee track record of absolutely destroying his underlying numbers(3.55 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 4.33 xFIP). This is why looking at RA-9 WAR is not only useful for Weaver, but as a good barometer to mix with traditional WAR for everybody.

By the traditional fWAR, Weaver has been worth 31.6 wins. Good not great. By RA-9 WAR, he's been worth 42.6 wins, which is superb. That's not all that close to getting him in the HOF but he's been a very good pitcher. His peak runs of years saw him run RA-9 WARS of 4.8, 5.4, 8.5, 5.3(2009-2012). From his debut year in 2006 all the way until 2014, he was a 2.7 win pitcher or better every year, which is pretty remarkable. During that '06-'14 timeframe, his 30.9 fWAR ranked him 12th among all starters. By RA-9 WAR, he was 6th with 41.5 RA-9 WAR. 

I think you can make the case that Weaver was a legit ace for a 4 year run and his rookie year and had plenty of other quality 2/3 starter seasons mixed in. I think that's more than enough to get him into the Angels Hall of Fame someday and be remembered as one of the Angel greats. 

[Second Base]

There were a solid three years there that Weav probably could've won the Cy Young. But that was a long time ago. For now, I wish Weav all the success if he does go to San Diego. Heaven knows they need his leadership there and it'd be nice if he stayed in So-Cal, where he was born, raised and made his fortune in.

[Docwaukee]

wherever Weave ends up next year, he'll be throwing 92-94 mph fastballs unless it's with the halos.  

[Ohtaniland]

He's never been the same since Mike Trout drilled him with the water bottle. 

[Broad Street]

I just hope he doesn't end up like Washburn and pitching for the Mariners

[Troll Daddy]

He's been called the worst pitcher in baseball by many here.

 

good times

[Docwaukee]

8 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

He's been called the worst pitcher in baseball by many here.

 

good times

In 2016:

2nd worst by starter WAR

4th worst by era

2nd worst by FIP

worst by xFIP.  

James Shields was probably worse last year so many here were way off.  

keep it real TD.  

[Docwaukee]

Also, by his usual method where performance doesn't match his peripherals, he had an era of 3.73 in 2016, 4.24 in 2015, and a 2.77 era in 2014 the first two times through the order.

Just sayin'

 

[Guest]

That's good news. I like Weave, but it's time for him and the Angels to move on.

[Oz27]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

In 2016:

2nd worst by starter WAR

4th worst by era

2nd worst by FIP

worst by xFIP.  

James Shields was probably worse last year so many here were way off.  

keep it real TD.  

By DRA -

Weaver: 7.97

Shields: 6.03

By WARP -

Weaver: -5.32

Shields: -1.39

Weaver had the worst DRA of anyone who threw more than 25 innings. Given that is the best pitching statistic we have, that is a pretty strong argument that he was the worst pitcher in baseball (or at least the worst at the role he was assigned by his team).

[Oz27]

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

Well if you had been here he certainly hasn't been given the kings treatment.

I would use this year to say that he has. Compare how he is talked about here (and people actually saying another team should sign him) to how Player X, with identical stats but without Weaver's history, would be talked about. The difference is massive. Look at Joe Blanton, for example. By many measures (FIP, cFIP, DRA) 2016 Weaver was quite a bit worse than 2013 Blanton but I'm guessing if you took a blind poll, 90 per cent plus of posters here would say Blanton's 2013 was worse. My point is the guy got cut an awful lot of slack this year for how terrible he was. It is somewhat understandable, but I would consider that something like being given the "kings treatment".

[Brent Maguire]

1 hour ago, Troll Daddy said:

He's been called the worst pitcher in baseball by many here.

 

good times

In 2016, he was arguably the worst qualified starting pitcher in baseball. That's not hating on the guy. That's just what the numbers say. 

[mtangelsfan]

I think many of us fans have a hard time keeping the emotional part of being a fan out of your overall view of a player.  Weave has been a fan favorite for a long time.

For how he gave us a great home town discount and how he handled the Nick Adenhart tragedy and how he came up and was our ace for a decent amount of years.  All that while clearly never having the most talent.  

For one, I'll always be grateful that Weave played for my favorite team and there is a large part of me that is sad to see him go.

[Dtwncbad]

I still maintain that the "hometown discount" really wasn't a discount.  It was the right number under the circumstances.  Anyone can accept a bird in hand for two in the bush but that is not taking a discount.  I saw that whole "hometown discount" story as smart marketing on both sides.  The team and they player both benefit from that angle.  I just never bought it.  He wasn't a free agent.  His agent has brains.  That was marketing.  And that's fine.  Marketing is smart.

[mtangelsfan]

Would he have received a contract for more money from another team?

Answer, yes.

[Dtwncbad]

He wasn't a free agent.  He only had one team to negotiate with.  

[mtangelsfan]

3 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

He wasn't a free agent.  He only had one team to negotiate with.  

He would have gotten it for sure the following year.  

[Dtwncbad]

18 minutes ago, mtangelsfan said:

He would have gotten it for sure the following year.  

And what if he blew out his arm that year?  He would have gotten nothing.  This is the point.  He did not give the team a "discount".  He chose $85m now with no leverage(not a free agent yet) over likely more if he stayed healthy and if he performed well until he became a free agent when he would have leverage.  Saying he could have landed a larger contract if he waited to free agency doesn't prove he gave the team a discount.  Apples and oranges.  I actually thought he might be slightly overpaid because I didn't think his stuff was projectable for length of the extension.  In the end, he was highly overpaid in the last two years of that deal.  There was no discount.

[Docwaukee]

Weaver had back to back top 5 cy finishes.  

3 yrs prior to his contract (2009-2011):

3.03 era, 671ip, 605k.  

Age 29 first year of new contract

5/85mil

 

Comps from then:

Greinke:

three years prior to contract (2010-2012)

3.83 era, 604ip, 582k

cy young in 2009

Age 29 first year of new contract

6/147mil

 

Cliff Lee:

three years prior to contract (2008-2010)

2.98 era, 667.1ip, 536k

cy young 2008

Age 32 at start of new contract

5/120mil

 

An argument could be made that Weaver was better than either of those guys at the time.  

He left upwards of 50 mil on the table to come back to the Angels much to the dismay of Boras.  

[mtangelsfan]

Thanks Doc, definitely could't have said it better.

 

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

And what if he blew out his arm that year?  He would have gotten nothing.  This is the point.  He did not give the team a "discount".  He chose $85m now with no leverage(not a free agent yet) over likely more if he stayed healthy and if he performed well until he became a free agent when he would have leverage.  Saying he could have landed a larger contract if he waited to free agency doesn't prove he gave the team a discount.  Apples and oranges.  I actually thought he might be slightly overpaid because I didn't think his stuff was projectable for length of the extension.  In the end, he was highly overpaid in the last two years of that deal.  There was no discount.

he signed his contract in late August.  2 months prior to being a free agent.  He was even quoted as saying he hated the process and wanted it to be over.  The security offset for those two months isn't worth 50+ mil.

discount. 

[AngelArcher]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

he signed his contract in late August.  2 months prior to being a free agent.  He was even quoted as saying he hated the process and wanted it to be over.  The security offset for those two months isn't worth 50+ mil.

discount. 

It was actually a year+ before free agency.

 

[AngelArcher]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

I still maintain that the "hometown discount" really wasn't a discount.  It was the right number under the circumstances.  Anyone can accept a bird in hand for two in the bush but that is not taking a discount.  I saw that whole "hometown discount" story as smart marketing on both sides.  The team and they player both benefit from that angle.  I just never bought it.  He wasn't a free agent.  His agent has brains.  That was marketing.  And that's fine.  Marketing is smart.

Boras let it be known at the time that signing the extension was against his advice. Maybe that was just marketing.