Padres Considering Jered Weaver

[JAHV76]

1 hour ago, mtangelsfan said:

I think many of us fans have a hard time keeping the emotional part of being a fan out of your overall view of a player.  Weave has been a fan favorite for a long time.

For how he gave us a great home town discount and how he handled the Nick Adenhart tragedy and how he came up and was our ace for a decent amount of years.  All that while clearly never having the most talent.  

For one, I'll always be grateful that Weave played for my favorite team and there is a large part of me that is sad to see him go.

+1 he was also very fan friendly signing autographs frequently 

[Docwaukee]

9 minutes ago, AngelArcher said:

It was actually a year+ before free agency.

 

yeah.  my bad.  so he essentially only got a 4 year deal.  

[Erstad Grit]

I love me some weaver.  Letting him give it a go for the Padres is probably the right move.  

[Troll Daddy]

5 hours ago, Oz27 said:

By DRA -

Weaver: 7.97

Shields: 6.03

By WARP -

Weaver: -5.32

Shields: -1.39

Weaver had the worst DRA of anyone who threw more than 25 innings. Given that is the best pitching statistic we have, that is a pretty strong argument that he was the worst pitcher in baseball (or at least the worst at the role he was assigned by his team).

 

[Wallerrrr]

Sad to see him go but it's time to move on. It would be interesting to see how he does at Petco though...

[Troll Daddy]

4 hours ago, Angels_Baseball said:

In 2016, he was arguably the worst qualified starting pitcher in baseball. That's not hating on the guy. That's just what the numbers say. 

I agree with you ... although, wins are more important to me. 

Wins, RbIs, and Runs are my Juliet. I'm also big on productive outs. Is there a stat for that?

i know it rubs you guys the wrong way but   that's just me. I have no problem with saber metrics ... just don't have the time or inclination to learn. 

I will miss Weavers emotion on the mound. Lackey and Weaver were fun to watch!

 

[Slegnaac]

On 12/21/2016 at 8:21 PM, maximus p said:

Is he a good candidate to have his # retired?

11 years, 150-93, 3.99 ERA, 3 Allstars, top 5 CY 3x, 35.9 WAR.

And a No-hitter at home

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

I agree with you ... although, wins are more important to me. 

Wins, RbIs, and Runs are my Juliet. I'm also big on productive outs. Is there a stat for that?

i know it rubs you guys the wrong way but   that's just me. I have no problem with saber metrics ... just don't have the time or inclination to learn. 

I will miss Weavers emotion on the mound. Lackey and Weaver were fun to watch!

 

yeah.  it's called productive outs.  

[Dtwncbad]

18 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Weaver had back to back top 5 cy finishes.  

3 yrs prior to his contract (2009-2011):

3.03 era, 671ip, 605k.  

Age 29 first year of new contract

5/85mil

 

Comps from then:

Greinke:

three years prior to contract (2010-2012)

3.83 era, 604ip, 582k

cy young in 2009

Age 29 first year of new contract

6/147mil

 

Cliff Lee:

three years prior to contract (2008-2010)

2.98 era, 667.1ip, 536k

cy young 2008

Age 32 at start of new contract

5/120mil

 

An argument could be made that Weaver was better than either of those guys at the time.  

He left upwards of 50 mil on the table to come back to the Angels much to the dismay of Boras.  

Dude. . .the two "comps" you provide for Greinke and Lee are not comps.  Not even close.  I'm not sure how to say this any more clearly.  Those guy were free agents when they signed those contracts.  Weaver was not a free agent.

And you cite Grienke's age and Lee's age when they signed those free agent contracts.  Weaver clearly planned to cash his $85 million and THEN hit the free agent market in his young thirties and ALSO land a contract like that.  Unfortunately, his stuff abandoned him and he is not a premium stud starter as a free agent like Greinke and Lee were.

I notice you don't mention (off the top of my head) a more relevant "comp" like Justin Verlander that signed an EXTENSION (when he was not a free agent), and he got 5 yrs, $79m.

These extension plays are often trying to double dip a bit.  Grab a nice big chunk of money for that secure life changer, and still hit the open market as a free agent as young as you possibly can and ALSO land a second monster deal.  There is nothing wrong with the strategy.  But it is a strategy that secures that first life changing number (kind of dumb to say that since most of these guys already have made millions, but in their world making a couple million total is just an appetizer to a big number deal).

The point is you absolutely cannot compare a free agent contract to an extension contract.  Yes, you can say "if he did not sign an extension and stayed healthy and pitched well, he might have landed. . . "  but even that doesn't properly acknowledge that security matters, and the fact that they often jump from a couple million a year to like $20 million NOW for sometimes a couple years prior to them being a free agent.

 

[California Cajun]

On Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 9:57 PM, ettin said:

I don't know about the rest of you but the thought of Weave pitching somewhere other than Anaheim troubles me deep down in my soul. I feel like we the fans didn't give him a proper send off either due to how the season sort of abruptly ended.

I wish him the best of luck he will always be one of my favorite modern day Angels: Grit, determination, and the will to win (and he did!)!

Best of luck Jered no matter where you end up!

I'm sure there will be a day in his honor after he retires, and well deserved.  

[ukyah]

weaver's contract wasn't marketing. it was one of the clearest examples of a hometown discount in the history of the current climate of mlb contracts. there is no agent in the world that would recommend a client who is performing anywhere near a top 5 status, as weaver was, and recommend him to sign an extension when he's a year away from a FA contract and he's young.

worried about getting injured? buy an insurance policy for a year.

weaver left an insane amount of money on the table and boras was beside himself.

[Dtwncbad]

44 minutes ago, ukyah said:

weaver's contract wasn't marketing. it was one of the clearest examples of a hometown discount in the history of the current climate of mlb contracts. there is no agent in the world that would recommend a client who is performing anywhere near a top 5 status, as weaver was, and recommend him to sign an extension when he's a year away from a FA contract and he's young.

worried about getting injured? buy an insurance policy for a year.

weaver left an insane amount of money on the table and boras was beside himself.

Respectfully, you bit, swallowed and permanently digested the bait.  There won't be any presentation I can make to change you mind.  But you might consider that Boras has his philosophy regarding free agency (not being a big fan of extensions prior) but Boras likely already has most of the money he will earn in his pocket, so he isn't exactly aligned emotionally or financially with a player looking at their first opportunity to secure a life changing number.  So that is not, at all, evidence that Weaver left money on the table.  And insurance doesn't work maybe the way you think it works.  You understand that if Weaver went to an insurance company and said, "I think I might be able to land $150m in a couple years, and I want to insure that."  The insurance company would say, "OK, so commit 20% of it to us as your premium."  Is it sinking in yet?  That is a COST.  A big cost.

So thank you for bringing up another element that would have Weaver want to make an $85m money grab in an extension now.

I could see people saying that maybe Weaver may not have cared about going one last round of hard core negotiations to get that last dollar.  I doubt it with Boras as his agent.  When all is said and done, when Boras negotiates any contract, he is a bulldog.  Verlander got $79m for 5 years.  Weaver got $85m for 5 years.  Sorry, I don't see some "discount" when it was more than the most accurate comp contract, and he actually got more than Verlander.

The two deals that are most comparable to Weaver are the deals signed by Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez.

The deals for Verlander and Hernandez both bought out two arbitration years plus three years of free agency:

• Verlander: 5 years, $80 million; three FA years totaled $60 million ($20 million per year)
• Hernandez: 5 years, $78 million; three FA years totaled $58 million ($19.33 million per year)

So that was the correct market for this kind of extension buying out two years of arbitration and 3 yrs of free agency.

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Weaver is one of my favorite Angels party because we're both CSULB alumni (same age, was there when he was) but also because he went about his business without much fanfare and more often than not got the job done.  He wasn't the best pitcher in baseball but for a stretch he was quietly one of the better and more consistent pitchers and when he signed the extension it was a good deal for the team.  I realize his delivery had some people questioning his long term health but I don't think most thought his velocity would drop off like it did.  That said he still wanted to pitch to help the team, always competed when he was on the mound and he never came off as a guy who did it for the money. 

[ukyah]

2 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Respectfully, you bit, swallowed and permanently digested the bait.  There won't be any presentation I can make to change you mind.  But you might consider that Boras has his philosophy regarding free agency (not being a big fan of extensions prior) but Boras likely already has most of the money he will earn in his pocket, so he isn't exactly aligned emotionally or financially with a player looking at their first opportunity to secure a life changing number.  So that is not, at all, evidence that Weaver left money on the table.  And insurance doesn't work maybe the way you think it works.  You understand that if Weaver went to an insurance company and said, "I think I might be able to land $150m in a couple years, and I want to insure that."  The insurance company would say, "OK, so commit 20% of it to us as your premium."  Is it sinking in yet?  That is a COST.  A big cost.

So thank you for bringing up another element that would have Weaver want to make an $85m money grab in an extension now.

I could see people saying that maybe Weaver may not have cared about going one last round of hard core negotiations to get that last dollar.  I doubt it with Boras as his agent.  When all is said and done, when Boras negotiates any contract, he is a bulldog.  Verlander got $79m for 5 years.  Weaver got $85m for 5 years.  Sorry, I don't see some "discount" when it was more than the most accurate comp contract, and he actually got more than Verlander.

The two deals that are most comparable to Weaver are the deals signed by Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez.

The deals for Verlander and Hernandez both bought out two arbitration years plus three years of free agency:

• Verlander: 5 years, $80 million; three FA years totaled $60 million ($20 million per year)
• Hernandez: 5 years, $78 million; three FA years totaled $58 million ($19.33 million per year)

So that was the correct market for this kind of extension buying out two years of arbitration and 3 yrs of free agency.

 

you are making an insane amount of assumptions my friend. 

there's obviously no bridge to cross, so carry on.

 

[Dtwncbad]

You said there isn't an agent in the world that would advise that kind of extension.  Except Verlander's and King Felix's, right?

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Respectfully, you bit, swallowed and permanently digested the bait.  There won't be any presentation I can make to change you mind.  But you might consider that Boras has his philosophy regarding free agency (not being a big fan of extensions prior) but Boras likely already has most of the money he will earn in his pocket, so he isn't exactly aligned emotionally or financially with a player looking at their first opportunity to secure a life changing number.  So that is not, at all, evidence that Weaver left money on the table.  And insurance doesn't work maybe the way you think it works.  You understand that if Weaver went to an insurance company and said, "I think I might be able to land $150m in a couple years, and I want to insure that."  The insurance company would say, "OK, so commit 20% of it to us as your premium."  Is it sinking in yet?  That is a COST.  A big cost.

So thank you for bringing up another element that would have Weaver want to make an $85m money grab in an extension now.

I could see people saying that maybe Weaver may not have cared about going one last round of hard core negotiations to get that last dollar.  I doubt it with Boras as his agent.  When all is said and done, when Boras negotiates any contract, he is a bulldog.  Verlander got $79m for 5 years.  Weaver got $85m for 5 years.  Sorry, I don't see some "discount" when it was more than the most accurate comp contract, and he actually got more than Verlander.

The two deals that are most comparable to Weaver are the deals signed by Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez.

The deals for Verlander and Hernandez both bought out two arbitration years plus three years of free agency:

• Verlander: 5 years, $80 million; three FA years totaled $60 million ($20 million per year)
• Hernandez: 5 years, $78 million; three FA years totaled $58 million ($19.33 million per year)

So that was the correct market for this kind of extension buying out two years of arbitration and 3 yrs of free agency.

The Hernandez contract is apple to oranges.  He was 24 at the time.  Similar to Trout, that was a deal where Felix wanted to get to free agency at a young age still.  

they only bought out one year of arb for weaver so neither is an accurate comp because you are comparing money from a prime FA year to a 2nd year arb salary.  There's a 15mil delta in there.  

The other thing you aren't accounting for as something that was team friendly is the length of the contract relative to Weaver's age.  A huge factor.  They basically took him through the typical prime of a pitcher base on normal aging curves.  

There is no comp for that.  Even Verlander's original contract was set to take him through his age 31 season.  Not 33.  You know why there are no comps for that?  Because pitchers never do that if they have Weaver's track record and they are 1yr from free agency.  They know their earning power is tied to their age 27-32 yo seasons.  So they try to time it up such that they aren't showing significant signs of decline prior to being able to get a deal.  Then teams have to pay for several years beyond that 31/32yo mark in order to get the player.  

 home. town. discount.

 

 

[ukyah]

6 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

You said there isn't an agent in the world that would advise that kind of extension.  Except Verlander's and King Felix's, right?

dude, assumptions.

you don't know what the advice from the agent was. player's are advised by their agents and then the player makes a decision, that is how the process works.

one thing i can tell you for certain is this, and it doesn't require inside information into any specific negotiation, an agent's job is to get his client the best deal possible for him. what "best deal" means is dependent on the individual player. i can also say for certain if the "best deal" is the most money, then the agent will always advise against a young(ish) all star player from signing an extension. the most money will always be found in free agency, and all agents will advise you not to sign an extension when an all star is close to FA. that's not opinion, that's fact.

you said, specifically, that the "hometown discount" was a narrative for marketing purposes. that's simply not true. 

if you said, weaver chose security over the risk of waiting another year for FA and his contract was in line with other extensions signed during that time, then fine.

[nando714]

I thank him for his service 

but

he clearly doesn't have it anymore and it was time to move on. Good luck the rest of the way