The Road Forward, and Needs for 2017

[AngelsWin.com]

By Jonathan Northrop, AngelsWin.com Columnist -

A Road Forward

In other threads at AngelsWin.com many have been bemoaning the fact that Eppler isn't making a big—or even medium—splash during the Winter Meetings. I would offer a perspective that may explain what Eppler is doing, and how it might be in team's best interests.

This perspective is based upon the following idea: the Angels will try to be competitive over the next 2-3 years, but not at the expense of trading away the future 3+ years from now. Is is based on the recognition that the team, right now, projects to win maybe 82-85 games. Fangraphs has it at 85, but I think that's on the optimistic side and thus want to give a range. But an 82-85 team can catch fire and, with a bit of luck and a career year or two, could win 90 games and cruise into the playoffs. So Eppler recognizes that the team right now is not as bad as their 2016 record, but actually a bit better.

Eppler also realizes that it would be very expensive to put the team over the top to be a powerhouse in 2017. In fact, it isn't possible—not from the available free agents, and not without trading their limited farm resources. Sure, they could have tried to out-bid the Yankees and whomever signs Jepsen and get their top-flight closer; they could take a risk on Rich Hill; they could put together a package for a good second baseman. But all of that would have cost 40-60 million a year, and led to the loss of even more prospects, and still merely turned them from a projected 82-85 win team to a projected 87-90 win team, with an even grimmer future.

The (Shrinking) Trout Window

And of course there's Mike Trout. I have repeatedly advocated for the strategy that rather than focus on trying to win within the ever-shrinking Trout window (now just four years, 2017-20), the Angels should focus on working towards a healthy and vibrant team and organization so that, by the time Trout's contract is ending, he won't want to leave (that is assuming they can't extend him before the end of 2020, which would be greatly preferable). Or to put it another way, extend the Trout window rather than panic and try to win now, no matter the cost for the future.

So let's say that Eppler is in basic agreement with this approach: Make small to medium moves to increase the chances of the team winning in the near future, but focus on strengthening for the long-term. How to do this?

Well, he's already doing it, to some degree. Eppler is obviously combing the waiver wire and looking for players with good upside who haven't been able to actualize themselves in their organization. This, I have no doubt, will continue and—hopefully, eventually—bear fruit.

Filling Needs for 2017

In terms of 2017, we can ask: What do the Angels actually need? And what can they do that won't bankrupt the future and/or be terribly risky in terms of utilizing resources (money, prospects)? If we dial back to the beginning of the offseason, the needs are as follows:

A leftfielder

A second baseman

Strengthening the rotation

Strengthening the bullpen

These are actual needs: left field and second base have been massive holes the last couple years, and the entire pitching staff has struggled, largely due to injury (Richards, Heaney, Tropeano, Street, Shoemaker, etc). Beyond those four areas, some secondary moves could help but aren't absolutely necessary: possible improvement at catcher and depth on the bench.

Left Field

The first on this list is already taken care of with the acquisition of Cameron Maybin. Maybin is exactly the type of player Eppler seems to like: He was a top prospect (ranked in Baseball America's top ten three years in a row, 2007-09) who has struggled to actualize his potential. The best-case scenario is that Maybin comes close to reproducing his production last year and provides the Angels with solid defense and a .370 OBP as the leadoff man. But even if Maybin simply settles back into his career norms and is an adequate, if mediocre performer in left field—which would still be an improvement over the last couple years.

Second Base

Second base is a bit trickier. Neil Walker was the only plus free agent and he accepted his qualifying offer, perhaps largely because of questions surrounding his health. Beyond Walker are a bunch of platoon types, of which Stephen Drew seems the most likely candidate. There have also been rumblings that the Angels are working on a deal with the Padres to bring over Yangervis Solarte, which would be a nice pick-up, but again this only makes sense if it doesn't cost them more than someone like a Nate Smith and a fringe prospect.

The Rotation

As far as the pitching staff goes, the Angels are faced with the same problem in both the rotation and bullpen of having a lot of mediocre options, but few stand-outs. For instance, the rotation has a few strong pieces with Richards, Shoemaker and Skaggs as locks, and Nolasco as the workhorse 4th starter, and then the 5th spot is up for grabs among a large group of pitchers who could also fill in if one of the other starters goes down: Chavez, Smith, Meyer, Banuelos, Campos, and others.

In other words, the Angels don't really need anymore starters, unless they can pick up someone who will be significantly better than that group. The only pitchers on the free agent market that clearly fit that criteria are Rich Hill and perhaps Ivan Nova. Hill has questions due to age, but produced ace-caliber production in two-thirds of a year. But it is unlikely that Eppler will want to shell out the three-year $45-50 million contract that Hill will likely get. As for Nova, to me he looks like a slightly better Nolasco: in other words, a solid #4 starter. Do the Angels need another #4-5 starter? Probably not. The point being, unless they can get a #2-3 type, it seems unlikely that they'll sign another starter unless it is another Meyer/Banuelos type.

The Bullpen

Finally, the bullpen, which has only one real plus reliever in Bedrosian, unless Huston Street can recapture his 2015 form and Andrew Bailey does well. After those three, the rest of the bullpen is essentially replaceable. Clearly the Angels aren't getting one of the three premier closers: Chapman, Jensen, or Melancon. Holland is still an option, and he would be a nice bounce-back candidate, but it seems likely the Royals will re-sign him, after trading away Wade Davis. I could also see them going after a Neftali Feliz. But chances are they'll sign one or two plus relievers to strengthen the bullpen.

In Summary

Don't expect big moves going forward. Eppler will likely continue to make small and clever moves that cost the Angels very little, but could bear fruit down the line. The still need a second baseman, which will range from a one-year platoon type like Drew to a trade for someone like Solarte. They don't really need any more starters, but could very well sign another reliever or two.

The 2017-18 free agent class has more options, even more so in the 2018-19 class. It is wise for Eppler to save up his chips for a big push then which, with continued farm development, should hopefully see the Angels on an upward trajectory over the next few years. They've had the worst farm system in baseball for at least two years now, although there are glimmers with hope. They went 74-88 in 2016, their worst record since the 90s, so we can hope it is a bit of a rock-bottom moment. Perhaps they win 82-85 games in 2017, with meaningful games played into September, and the farm continues to improve. A year from now we could have an 85-win team with an improving farm system. A few years from now we could return to being a perennial 90+ win team with a solid, or even good, farm system. We can hope, at least.

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[Chuck]

Nicely done, @Angelsjunky

I posted this on the Blog so it can get out to our social media viewers & followers as well.

[Angelsjunky]

OK. The usual rate of 20 cents/word applies ;).

[Docwaukee]

27 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

OK. The usual rate of 20 cents/word applies ;).

I read the article.............you should have to pay more than that.  

 

just kidding.  I haven't read it.  

[WeatherWonk]

For a second, I thought there was a bidding war for Kevin Jepsen going on.............

Sure seems optimistic about our starters. Our big three have all had major down time due to injuries in the last year and a half. Two have not pitched since those injuries. The other posted a WHIP of nearly 1.5 in his TEN starts last year, largely because he was walking guys at a rate of 4.2/9 innings.

I have qualified confidence in Nolasco because of the way he pitched when we got him. And I think/hope Shoe should return to form because his injury was not arm related.

[Docwaukee]

Nice Job AJ,  

I totally agree that 2019 and 2020 probably need to be our primary focus.  It's sucks to accept, but this is a horrible year to open up the checkbook.  But it doesn't mean you have to roll into spring with Cliff Pennington as your 2bman.  Or Huston Street as your closer.  Shit.  Maybe it does.  

Their actions tell me that they know this team is possibly a contender but likely not.  But wouldn't it be a bitch to finish with 85 wins and the worst bullpen in baseball or a replacement level 2bman?  If they could have Asuaje for Smith, they'd have already done it.  

What I think could work:

Ben Revere 1/7

Trade for one of SD's 2bman.  One of them isn't going to cost you much and any of them are better than what we have.  

Tyson Ross 1/10 - take a flyer.  Even if you get 130ip, it's worth it. 

Feliz 3/18 

Start the season with a rotation of Richards, Shoe, Ross, Nolasco and one of our many peanuts.  Put Meyer and Skaggs in the pen but extend them.  Let them work 2-3 innings at a time.  Fill the gaps with the rest and then mix and match Bailey, Bedrosian, Feliz, Street and a Loogy.  Get those frequent flyer miles between LA and SLC.  Create a schedule to get Skaggs and Meyer about 100-120 innings each.  

OR have Meyer, Skaggs, and one of the other guys like Campos, Banuelos, Pounders and maybe Alvarez or Ramirez alternate through the 5th spot in the rotation.  So they start once ever 17-18 days, but then they each get a couple of 2-3 inning appearances each in between.  

My point is, don't go into the season pretending like certain guys are going to be capable of 180ip.  It's a fools errand.  Because by July, your're gonna have a gassed out bunch that you'd like to still have out there every 5th day but just aren't capable.  Do yourself a favor from the word go.  Set up a few of your pitchers to work capably once through the order and then take them out.   

Acknowledge the importance of leverage and the fact that all pitchers are more effect the fewer times they face a hitter.  Acknowledge that you don't have anyone who is going to pitch 180 innings.  Pick 5 guys that you think could give you 100-120ip and put them on a schedule.  

It's certainly way more complicated that carting a guy out there every 5th day or bringing in a guy for one inning, but hey, computers are pretty fancy these days.  They've got mnions to figure this out.  Put em' to work.  

In the end though, while I am in agreement about saving your bullets, they have to do a better job this year of addressing a couple of obvious holes.  They have to field a complete team.  

 

[Angelsjunky]

We're in basic agreement, Doc, if quibbling about details. I'm happy with your proposed moves because they don't hamstring flexibility for 2018 and 2019, when the Angels should be able to spend big. Right now Eppler's job is to patch the major holes with at least adequate players, which is exactly what the Maybin move was about.

I also like the idea of going after one of San Diego's infielders rather than  Drew. So a check there. I also like the Feliz signing, and may even like to see Eppler go for a second plus reliever to really shore up the bullpen.

Where we seem to quibble is on the rotation. Ross signs like a great risk - I didn't know he was a free agent. What I don't want to see, though, is another #4-5 type to go with all the other "peanuts." Using ettin's article, I'd categorize our possible starters as follows:

very good, #2-3 types: Richards, Shoemaker

good upside, but big question marks: Skaggs, Meyer

solid/reliable/major-league-ready #4-5 types: Nolasco, Chavez

"peanuts" (AAA types that could be #4-5 types, but probably not more--at least in 2017): Alvarez, Ramirez, Pounders, Smith, Campos, Banuelos, Wright, McGowin, Scribner, O'Grady, maybe one or two others

So in my view, any signing has to be in one of the top two categories - either a bonafide #2-3 type (like Hill, or Ross if he can come back OK) or someone with upside like Skaggs and Meyer. I don't think we need any more Nolascos or Chavezes, because we've got that longish list of AAA guys that could fill something close to that for much less money. A few of them, most notably Pounders, Banuelos and Campos, could actually be better.

I suppose Nova would be tempting, but he seems like another Nolasco to me.

[Docwaukee]

Rich Hill signed with the Dogs.  So he's gone.  

That really only leaves Nova or Ross.  I chose Ross because he wants a 1yr deal to recoup his value.  He had the same surgery as Bedrosian so I expect he'll recover appropriately.  He's also, by far, the most talented pitcher made available this off season and this year's injury is the only thing that made him available.  

Here's and interesting comp:

Ross the last 4 years - 3.16 era with an era+ of 112.  

522 ip, 7.7 h/9, 3.5 bb/9, 9.2 k/9.  1.239 WHIP.  6.4 WAR

Player b the last 4 years - 3.39 era with an era+ of 110

555.2 ip, 7.9 h/9, 3.0 bb/9, 7.7 k/9.  1.211 WHIP. 7.4 WAR

Hint: player b should look very familiar.  

 

Ross is a legit #2 when healthy, and his injury this year, by all accounts, wasn't structural to the elbow or shoulder joint but all related to the Thoracic outlet syndrome of which has now been surgically repaired.  

You want a chance at a legit, cheap, top of the rotation arm without trading anyone or violating the laws of physics, he's about it.  

[Redondo]

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

  That really only leaves Nova or Ross.  I chose Ross because he wants a 1yr deal to recoup his value. 

I like the idea of bringing in Ross on a one year prove it deal. No more long term contracts on question mark players. Gives the Angels more flexibility next year.

[totdprods]

Jason Hammel is still out there too. 

Still against bringing in Ross. Feels like Ryan Madson all over again. $10m is a lot of money (to the 2017 club/budget) for a pitcher who, at best, will already miss the first month of the season. Coupled with the Padres being extraordinarily sketchy in regards to players health recently (on top of the fact Pads pitchers always seem to have arm trouble) and the fact that Thoracic Outlet Syndrome has very mixed success rates - some folks have been fine, but guys like Marcum, Harrison, Carpenter, Beckett, etc. wound up being not only the same, but in some cases barely ever pitched again.

Yeah, there's a lot of upside there, but arguably Richards, Skaggs, Shoemaker, and Meyer have comparable upside. We have plenty of high-upside pitchers with health concerns already, a tight budget, and glaring needs elsewhere still.

That $10m can buy us two relievers, or it could net us Jason Hammel for at same rate for two or three years, and while he doesn't have the same upside as Ross, he'll actually be able to take the mound in April.

[Angel Oracle]

I like the sign Revere (1 year, but for no more than $4-5 million), trade for Solarte, and sign Feliz (2 years) ideas. 

No early round draft picks lost, and only possibly losing someone like a Nate Smith and lower prospect in the Solarte trade.    Revere gives the team even more speed along with Maybin, and is a solid 4th OF guy (Damonesque arm aside).    Feliz is a possible candidate to bounce back, not being too old.

The Halos have enough possible starting pitchers going into ST.   Save that 2017 money for a possible July acquisition, if somehow in contention. 

 

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I like the sign Revere (1 year, but for no more than $4-5 million), trade for Solarte, sign Ross (if one year), and sign Feliz (2 years) ideas. 

No early round draft picks lost, and only possibly losing someone like a Nate Smith and lower prospect in the Solarte trade.   Ross has always had good stuff, but how is his health long term?   Revere gives the team even more speed along with Maybin.    Feliz is a possible candidate to bounce back, not being too old.

I do agree on Revere - he'd be a great fit. Solarte is going to cost far more than Smith and a lower level prospect. I'll take Feliz, but swap out Ross for Boone Logan, Mike Dunn, or Jerry Blevins. Not sold on Ross, and not 100% comfortable that Feliz has turned things around completely. Bringing in a lefty reliever to accompany him helps alleviate that risk.

[Angel Oracle]

After thinking about it, I edited my original post to remove Ross.  
With the number of starting pitchers competing for the lower rotation spots, it is better to focus on upgrading the pen options and Feliz is a solid one to start with, and it is wise to bring in a second guy along with Feliz.  I'm still not totally sold on Alvarez.   Logan would be a nice addition.

I'd also look at keeping Escobar at no more than 120 games at 3B, have Cowart start the other 42 games there as well as backing up the starting 2B.

But then, after Pujols returns by May, when would Marte play?   LF, 3B, 1B, and DH would all be occupied by May.   Nice issue to have, though

 

[totdprods]

Just now, Angel Oracle said:

After thinking about it, I edited my original post to remove Ross.  
With the number of starting pitchers competing for the lower rotation spots, it is better to focus on upgrading the pen options and Feliz is a solid one to start with, and it is wise to bring in a second guy along with Feliz.  I'm still not totally sold on Alverez.   Logan would be a nice addition.

I'd also look at keeping Escobar at no more than 120 games at 3B, have Cowart start the other 42 games there as well as backing up the starting 2B.

But then, after Pujols returns by May, when would Marte play?   LF, 3B, 1B, and DH would all be occupied by May.   Nice issue to have, though

 

I'm fine keeping Marte in the same role for another year. He already proved he can handle it - it's not like we're forcing him into a reserve role after being an everyday player. He's only going to be 26. He can bounce around a bit and pick up some time at the corner infield spots and maybe an occasional appearance in the OF. He can be an internal solution for when Escobar (or unlikely, Maybin) walks, or be insurance in case we get a great offer for Cron. 

More importantly, he's depth. Cron, Maybin, Pujols, and Escobar missed a combined 158 games last year. Very likely one of them misses extended time again this year - Pujols already might. Having Marte in that reserve role means we don't see Pennington, Fontana, or Cowart getting those ABs.

[Angel Oracle]

12 hours ago, Dochalo said:

You want a chance at a legit, cheap, top of the rotation arm without trading anyone or violating the laws of physics, he's about it.  

But does Ross like grits?