Our manager doesn't know rules regarding mound visits

[stormngt]

Trading for Haren, when we had little hitting, was pretty stupid.

Can't win in the 2010's with a 1960s Raviners offense.

Should have rebuilt from there.

But asking Reagins to oversee a rebuild would be tantamount to Jimmy Bob Buss trying to run the Lakers.

Should have rebuilt in 2010....you are right.  

[Sully151]

Does Arte Moreno even understand how integral pitching is in baseball?

Uhh Arte, name ONE WS participant over the past decade that had questionable pitching.

But several did have somewhat questionable offense.

Awesome, we are half way to the W.S.

[Blarg]

Scott Kazmir was awesone when he was traded to the Angels in 2009. He was trending.

 

Lol called it. Try to understand the human elements and variables that go into that final seasonal statistical number. Also go read up on zips and see why it is useless. Thanks for admitting your lack of knowledge/awareness on the matters at hand.

[Brent Maguire]

I wanted Villanueva over Blanton but Guthrie at 3/24 is pretty much a joke. 

[Tyler]

Scott Kazmir was awesone when he was traded to the Angels in 2009. He was trending.

 

Trending downwards.

 

The report on Kazmir coming into the Angels:

- diminishing velocity, erratic, struggles to make it through 6 innings, high high-pressure pitch count, health concerns

[Blarg]

What were the reports from Colorado about Guthrie? You talk trends then ignore what you want in terms of statistical history until you need that for another similar situation. Kazmir was lights out for 6 games in 2009 and help push the Angels into the playoffs. You can take any 5 game period of Kazmir's 2010 season and come up with an ERA of 7 or 3.5. Which trend was he on? What real trend was Guthrie on in Colorado?  

 

Fools gold is out there for the picking, just like stats.

 

Trending downwards.

 

The report on Kazmir coming into the Angels:

- diminishing velocity, erratic, struggles to make it through 6 innings, high high-pressure pitch count, health concerns

[Tyler]

It's important to take career trends, Eric. Not 15 games here, 30 innings there...

 

The fact is outside of the 90 or so innings Guthrie had in Colorado, the other 1,000 innings he pitched after he was acknowledged as a regular major leaguer, he was around a 4 ERA, and that's including his one bad season in Balt where he had a 5 ERA. 4.5 seasons is a trend I would look at, not 1.5 seasons when determing what kind of pitcher one can expect one to be. It would be completely logical to expect Guthrie to put up an ERA in the 3.5 - 4.0 range.

 

Each player needs to be looked at individually. This is why there is a need for scouts in baseball and computer don't run franchises.

 

It's not cherry picking like many of you seem to think. The stats and reports are available to you guys too. Look them up. Then figure out why a guy struggled one year, or had success another.

[Docwaukee]

I guess the proof will be in the pudding.  I think it's an absolute stretch to think that Guthrie would clearly be better than Blanton coming into his age 34 season with a k ratio of 5.5 while giving up a hit per inning. Considering his most recent prior year with Bmore wasn't very good either. 

 

2008 - second half era of 4

2009 - era above 5

2010 - solid season with an ERA just below 4.  yet his walk rate was lower than any other season

2011 - 4.3 era with his walk rate going back up

2012 - got hammered in colorado for half a season and then was good in KC for half a year with his hit and walk rate well below career marks.  Both here are small sample yet overall leaves him with an expected season of 4.76era.

2013 - has been good this year so far yet his k rate is magically better than it has ever been by quite a bit.  Again, small sample

 

We'll see how the numbers play out.  If he ends up with an ERA below four then I'll post hat in hand. 

 

I just think it's odd that you are seeing something that several other reasonable posters are somehow missing. 

[Blarg]

That and 29 other General Managers.

[Tyler]

Sure we can bump this at the end of the season.

 

_______________

 

The whole thing that got this discussion going was that I thought Dipoto did a poor job assembling a pitching staff after having a whole offseason to work with. My opinion was that he could have done better, and should have given the assets he had prior to the Hamilton signing and Morales trade. 4 mentions of available starting pitchers and a list of current expendable Angels players and here we are...

 

Anyways, the Angels problems and how we think we can get out of this huge hole should be the focus moving forward.

[Tyler]

That and 29 other General Managers.

 

 

Because that makes sense.

[tomsred]

Dipoto was never given the permission to rebuild.

He had to keep the manager and coaching staff.

When he gets the OK to build, he will start to build.

At this point he has to suffer, along with the fans.

How do you know that?

[angelskirt]

Someome is a bit full of themself

[Docwaukee]

Sure we can bump this at the end of the season.

 

_______________

 

The whole thing that got this discussion going was that I thought Dipoto did a poor job assembling a pitching staff after having a whole offseason to work with. My opinion was that he could have done better, and should have given the assets he had prior to the Hamilton signing and Morales trade. 4 mentions of available starting pitchers and a list of current expendable Angels players and here we are...

 

Anyways, the Angels problems and how we think we can get out of this huge hole should be the focus moving forward.

you gave four examples

 

2 of which were not reasonable to include due to finances ie Lohse and Sanchez

 

The other two could be argued and have been with several people disagreeing that they were clearly better options than blanton at the time.

 

Trumbo, Bourjos and Morales are not all expendable.  JD traded the most expendable and got a player that is performing at a similar relative level. 

 

JB shuck becomes and everyday player if we also trade one of Bourjos or Trumbo.  Also not a good plan going foward in most people's opinion.

 

Your assertion that JD could have done a better job is not in question.  What you would have done is.   

[Tyler]

Agree to disagree.

 

You guys have done nothing to make me budge off my stance that Guthrie or Villa would not have been better options than Blanton, and the fact that you guys have been comparing them is laughable and very ignorant.

 

That is not what I would have done, but keep putting words in my posts. Nobody knows what the offers on the table were for Bourjos, for Trumbo, for Morales. There could have been other options as all will have nice value around the league.

 

Move on already.

[robblin17]

Someome is a bit full of themself

Haha. Twice within 24 hours! 

[Lifetime]

Yay! WINNING!! 

[adenhart34]

Dipoto was just the last piece in a puzzle that goes back to really Reagins' hiring. That was the day that the franchise retreat was truly planted.

 

I'd just like to point out that F'n Stoneman didn't come out of nowhere. The overwhelming sentiment by fans on this board 5 years ago was that Stoneman didn't have the balls to make a move and hated that he held onto prospects instead of making trades.

 

The problem isn't that they made moves, it's that they made the wrong moves.

[Corona]

Yeah the best way to build a pitching staff is to sign a 34 year old Jeremy Guthrie to a 3 year deal. For what we gave up, Hanson and Vargas weren't bad acquisitions. Blanton was a super WTF one. Shane was probably on the Mccarthy/Marcum wagon as well but they're off to horrible starts so we wont discuss them.

[ettin]

way off

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=4138&position=P&page=0&players=2072,4138,4849

 

Baseball is all about trends, especially when predicting future success.

 

I would also point out the link above the graph entitled "(Very) Early ERA-FIP Overachievers" where you will see all of the things that should worry you about Villaneuva. Sample size, sample size, sample size.

[ettin]

Lol i'll worry about my interactions with you guys when you are responsible for writing my checks

 

Sorry but if I were the type of person to do that I would prefer a Lady of the Night, not a Man of the Night.

[Tyler]

Yeah the best way to build a pitching staff is to sign a 34 year old Jeremy Guthrie to a 3 year deal. For what we gave up, Hanson and Vargas weren't bad acquisitions. Blanton was a super WTF one. Shane was probably on the Mccarthy/Marcum wagon as well but they're off to horrible starts so we wont discuss them.

Lol brilliant

[Mark68]

Agree to disagree.

 

You guys have done nothing to make me budge off my stance that Guthrie or Villa would not have been better options than Blanton, and the fact that you guys have been comparing them is laughable and very ignorant.

 

That is not what I would have done, but keep putting words in my posts. Nobody knows what the offers on the table were for Bourjos, for Trumbo, for Morales. There could have been other options as all will have nice value around the league.

 

Move on already.

You apparently haven't moved on.

 

To quote Karl Rove: "You're entitled to your math, I'm entitled to THE math."

 

You have done nothing to prove your case, and yet, you insist on ignoring proof to the contrary.

 

Despite that, I'll give you more. Since you think ZiPs projections are inaccurate, I'll give you PECOTA's:

 

Guthrie 4.66 ERA/1.36 WHIP/0.7 WARP

Villanueva 3.94 ERA/1.22 WHIP/1.3 WARP But is projected to make only 13 starts (again based on the fact that he's never been a full-time starter)

Lohse 4.47 ERA/1.27 WHIP/1.4 WARP With the same objections that I had before: Cost, Boras (which IS a factor), loss of draft pick, and would probably be much worse in the AL.

Sanchez 4.25 ERA/1.36 WHIP/1.7 WARP Again, cost was an issue.

 

Vargas 4.11 ERA/1.28 WHIP/1.1 WARP

Hanson 3.49 ERA/1.19 WHIP/2.4 WARP (!)

Blanton 4.52 ERA/1.33 WHIP/0.1 WARP

 

In wins over replacement player (WARP), your top 3=4.4 WARP, the three actually signed/traded for=3.6 WARP. That's less than one win over the course of a season. Considering how much more it was going to cost to land either Sanchez or Lohse, that one win wasn't really worth it. If you replace Villanueva (the lowest of your top 3) with Guthrie, then that difference becomes 0.2 WARP.

 

Dipoto did what he could with the remaining budget available. I would rather have spent Josh's money on Greinke, but he, apparently, wanted to go back to the NL, and that deal was done BEFORE Hamilton's. We would have had to win a bidding war with the Tigers for Sanchez, so his cost was going to be steeper than what he got from the Tigers (he'll be making $15.8 in 2014 and $16.8 in 2015-2017).

 

So, your "solution" isn't one.

[AZMike]

Yeah the best way to build a pitching staff is to sign a 34 year old Jeremy Guthrie to a 3 year deal. For what we gave up, Hanson and Vargas weren't bad acquisitions. Blanton was a super WTF one. Shane was probably on the Mccarthy/Marcum wagon as well but they're off to horrible starts so we wont discuss them.

 

I was on the bandwagon of resign one of Haren or Santana (front office has more information to determine which one of those would've been a better move) and only deal them in a trade if/when a suitable replacement has been found. Clearly the market liked Santana more (a Haren for Marmol trade was dropped by the Cubs!!)

 

Going into free agency with three holes in the starting rotation gave Dipoto a position of zero leverage which agents took advantage of. I actually wouldn't have been opposed to signing Blanton based on his prior stats (he's lost velocity and done much worse than anyone could've anticipated) but not for anywhere close to $15M. If that was the best they could get they should've kept Santana and gambled on seeing Cy Santana instead of Home Run Santana. Blanton at best gives you a marginal improvement over Home Run Santana. 

[Tyler]

You apparently haven't moved on. To quote Karl Rove: "You're entitled to your math, I'm entitled to THE math." You have done nothing to prove your case, and yet, you insist on ignoring proof to the contrary. Despite that, I'll give you more. Since you think ZiPs projections are inaccurate, I'll give you PECOTA's: Guthrie 4.66 ERA/1.36 WHIP/0.7 WARPVillanueva 3.94 ERA/1.22 WHIP/1.3 WARP But is projected to make only 13 starts (again based on the fact that he's never been a full-time starter)Lohse 4.47 ERA/1.27 WHIP/1.4 WARP With the same objections that I had before: Cost, Boras (which IS a factor), loss of draft pick, and would probably be much worse in the AL.Sanchez 4.25 ERA/1.36 WHIP/1.7 WARP Again, cost was an issue. Vargas 4.11 ERA/1.28 WHIP/1.1 WARPHanson 3.49 ERA/1.19 WHIP/2.4 WARP (!)Blanton 4.52 ERA/1.33 WHIP/0.1 WARP In wins over replacement player (WARP), your top 3=4.4 WARP, the three actually signed/traded for=3.6 WARP. That's less than one win over the course of a season. Considering how much more it was going to cost to land either Sanchez or Lohse, that one win wasn't really worth it. If you replace Villanueva (the lowest of your top 3) with Guthrie, then that difference becomes 0.2 WARP. Dipoto did what he could with the remaining budget available. I would rather have spent Josh's money on Greinke, but he, apparently, wanted to go back to the NL, and that deal was done BEFORE Hamilton's. We would have had to win a bidding war with the Tigers for Sanchez, so his cost was going to be steeper than what he got from the Tigers (he'll be making $15.8 in 2014 and $16.8 in 2015-2017). So, your "solution" isn't one.

I hate to do this because you put a lot of time and effort into your post, and I respect that but I could give two shits about any of these projections based on other similar players. Each individual is unique.

For the last time, signing the four FA I listed was not my solution as I, nor anybody else, knew what offers were on the table for Bourjos, or Trumbo, or Morales.