The more I look at our salary situation, the harder Eppler's job is beginning to look

[AngelsLakersFan]

From a budget of $31-41 million.  This would be my shot at it.  Yes, I said I liked other people more or less than other people.  But looking at the budget constraints.

 

C - Perez $0 move

3B - Cowart - $0 move

 

not popular, but you have to think budget and it's sink or swim time for these two.

 

CJ Wilson - Trade $10 million/eat $10 million - CBT a net of I believe CBT $7.5 million

 

So now $38.5-$48.5 million.  Still not a lot.

 

Murphy - excercise option.  +6.5 million.

 

So back down to $32-42 million.  

 

2B - Zobrist  say $15 million.  Hopefully a little less.  Benefits of him, will probably be a 2-3 year contract.  So long term very CBT friendly.  

 

$17-$27 million

 

LF - I'd love Fowler, or Heyward, or Cespedes.  But I just don't think we have the money.  I think you have to wait the market out, and hope someone gets squeezed out, since there are so many OF'ers available.  But I say $10-12 million would be our budget on an OFer.  

 

SP - Again, we have to go budget.  Haven't really researched SP'ers so not sure.  But $10 million is probably where we are looking to spend.

 

That should leave around $5 million for relievers.  And $5 is usually good enough to get a quality pen arm.  

 

Let Murphy walk. Don't worry about a reliever or a starter. Sign Hayward, put Shoemaker and Santiago in the pen, and hope their stuff plays up.

 

Either way, like I keep saying on here. The Angels have to spend money. If it costs so much that they have to go over the luxury tax, then that is what they have to do.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I have a lot to say about this later in the Primer Series but it seems very likely that Arte will not only breach the Luxury Tax he'll blow through it.

When you look at Average Annual Value over the next four years it becomes clear that the team can spend a significant amount of money (give or take $50MM-60MM) and only be over the tax this year and possibly next year (and in that year the Angels will only be over by only about $5MM max making the 30% tax a small number).

It wouldn't surprise me to see one big ticket signing, a mid-tier signing, and 1-2 lower tier signings this offseason. It also will not be surprising to see one or more arbitration buyout contracts given too.

If Arte was willing to eat Hamilton's contract paying out for the 2016 Luxury Tax should be a walk in the park. More to come on my thoughts on that as I don't want to rewrite everything I already wrote here.

Gotbeer has a point if Arte gets stingy and doesn't authorize too much. I hope he does the smart thing and spends big here to improve the team and show that we can compete as a big market team. I generally don't like spending on free agents but the Angels are in a situation where they can build a team for the immediate future with marginally sufficient depth for 2016 and then use the 2017-2020 drafts to rebuild the farm.

Doing this will maximize our World Series chances with Trout in the fold.

 

This.

 

If you want to play the big market team you have to be the big market team. We didn't need Pujols or Hamilton when we signed them, but we were playing big market team and that's what big market teams do. Now we are in a position where money is the only thing that can bail us out. If we aren't going to do that, or we are going to hedge our bets then we are better off playing small market again.

[AngelsLakersFan]

In about 2-3 weeks I'll have a section of the Primer coming out regarding the Luxury Tax that I think you'll hopefully find interesting. I will caveat everything by simply stating that all of this falls on Arte's shoulders to pull the trigger but if the Angels are willing to pay approximately $15MM total towards the Luxury Tax in the next TWO years then there is no reason they can't spend big this offseason and fill in almost all of those holes in free agency and trade in my humble opinion.

 

To put it a different way I see at least one scenario where the Angels sign four different free agents (one big ticket, one mid-tier, and two lower-tier) for just under $60MM and make a couple of trades that would set the roster at every position around the infield and add a front line starter for the next 4 years. Also in that scenario a good bullpen piece is added for three years. Although some may disagree (and I'm sure there will be those people) I feel it is fully achievable if Arte fronts the money which he should do without hesitation.

 

Oh and the reason he didn't go over the threshold then was because he didn't really want to go into the 30% tax territory. This year is different as he can authorize a lot of money expenditures and still be back under the threshold next year (or as I hinted the year after). Just remember too that so much money comes off the books next year (and the year after) that if we stay a 2nd year under the tax we will very likely only be a couple of million over and when you tax 30% of $2MM-3MM it isn't that much to fork out.

 

Consider the money Arte spent in 2004, bringing in the top hitter, Vladimir Guerrero, the top pitcher, Bartolo Colon, as well as Kelvin Escobar and Jose Guillen, propelling the disappointing 2003 team into the playoffs (and in my opinion the best team roster we've ever had on paper). We need a similar offseason this year.

[nikkachez]

Consider the money Arte spent in 2004, bringing in the top hitter, Vladimir Guerrero, the top pitcher, Bartolo Colon, as well as Kelvin Escobar and Jose Guillen, propelling the disappointing 2003 team into the playoffs (and in my opinion the best team roster we've ever had on paper). We need a similar offseason this year.

Definitely, Arte will have to go bonkers to get this team into competitive shape.

Soooo that means we're getting Price, Heyward, Zobrist, and Davis, right?

[tdawg87]

You are seriously not very smart if you actually think that.

[Jobu]

The problem with the "all the money is coming off the books" scenarios is that the players also no longer play for us. You have to field a team and if the farm ain't producing, then those fat salaries just get replaced by other FA salaries. Free agents aren't getting cheaper.

[wopphil]

I think you could dramatically improve this team by adding two of Murphy, Zobrist, Upton, Cespedes or Heyward, and a Cueto or Zimmerman. I am guessing the cost to do so would be $55 mil per, at least.

[VariousCrap]

Sign Fowler for LF

Sign at least one second-tier SP (Leake/Chen/Gallardo)

Sign a BP arm

Trade for 3B

[UndertheHalo]

Throw all the money at Upton or Heyward GMJ 2.0. Use whats left to shore up the bullpen.

I literally see no comparison between Heyward and GMJ other then they're both black dudes. Heyward has been a good player and has a chance to be better. GMJ had one OK year and was a typical Stoneman dumpster dive. Surpise ! He sucked.

[Ohtaniland]

Consider the money Arte spent in 2004, bringing in the top hitter, Vladimir Guerrero, the top pitcher, Bartolo Colon, as well as Kelvin Escobar and Jose Guillen, propelling the disappointing 2003 team into the playoffs (and in my opinion the best team roster we've ever had on paper). We need a similar offseason this year.

 

That was the 57 year old Arte. He just got burnt by Pujols, Hamilton and Wilson. He just got shut down by the City of Anaheim on the land deal. He's on the hook for $150M to fix the stadium and he gets 3 million fans to show up to watch Trout next season even if he does nothing.

[AngelsLakersFan]

That was the 57 year old Arte. He just got burnt by Pujols, Hamilton and Wilson. He just got shut down by the City of Anaheim on the land deal. He's on the hook for $150M to fix the stadium and he gets 3 million fans to show up to watch Trout next season even if he does nothing.

 

Not sure the last part is true. Also, if it is he may as well sell the team. It probably will never be more valuable than it is now (record league revenues and a brand new long term tv deal) especially if he doesn't plan any further investments.

[gotbeer]

In about 2-3 weeks I'll have a section of the Primer coming out regarding the Luxury Tax that I think you'll hopefully find interesting. I will caveat everything by simply stating that all of this falls on Arte's shoulders to pull the trigger but if the Angels are willing to pay approximately $15MM total towards the Luxury Tax in the next TWO years then there is no reason they can't spend big this offseason and fill in almost all of those holes in free agency and trade in my humble opinion.

 

To put it a different way I see at least one scenario where the Angels sign four different free agents (one big ticket, one mid-tier, and two lower-tier) for just under $60MM and make a couple of trades that would set the roster at every position around the infield and add a front line starter for the next 4 years. Also in that scenario a good bullpen piece is added for three years. Although some may disagree (and I'm sure there will be those people) I feel it is fully achievable if Arte fronts the money which he should do without hesitation.

 

Oh and the reason he didn't go over the threshold then was because he didn't really want to go into the 30% tax territory. This year is different as he can authorize a lot of money expenditures and still be back under the threshold next year (or as I hinted the year after). Just remember too that so much money comes off the books next year (and the year after) that if we stay a 2nd year under the tax we will very likely only be a couple of million over and when you tax 30% of $2MM-3MM it isn't that much to fork out.

 

I think the two biggest questions that only arte and the owners can answer.  1.  How much over the tax will Arte be willing to go.  2.  How high will the CBT be for the next 3-4 years.  

 

1.  we don't know.  He said he will go over for the right player.  Hopefully that means he will really go over.

 

2.  I still think it won't go up much.  You read teams like the Mets, Pirates, etc say they can't retain their players due to money issues.  Just because we might be able to spend, doesn't mean that we should be rewarded for outspending and trying to buy a playoff berth.  And considering 2/3 of the owners will be way under.  I can't see them rewarding the 1/3 and probably 1/4 that might go over.

[Brent Maguire]

I'm starting to think they team tries for two of the mid-tier guys like Span, Zobrist and Fowler. As much as a guy like Heyward helps, you're pretty much going all in for one guy and still leave the team looking thin at 2B/3B. Signing Zobrist for 3B and Fowler/Span for LF to lead off would be pretty awesome in my mind. 

[Lou]

Any big contract that is given out will undoubtedly be backloaded. If nothing else, it can begin with a lower salary in the first year. After that, Wilson and Weaver will be gone, saving Arte $40 millon

[Lou]

The problem with the "all the money is coming off the books" scenarios is that the players also no longer play for us. You have to field a team and if the farm ain't producing, then those fat salaries just get replaced by other FA salaries. Free agents aren't getting cheaper.

We can replace Wilson and Weaver with guys we have right now that would be an upgrade, saving almost $40 million

[Angel Oracle]

No one will disagree that to make money ultimately, you have to spend it.

It's how you spend it that determines your success.

This off-season will truly show what Arte has learned.

[Troll Daddy]

We can replace Wilson and Weaver with guys we have right now that would be an upgrade, saving almost $40 million

But, what if we can't?

[Jobu]

We can replace Wilson and Weaver with guys we have right now that would be an upgrade, saving almost $40 million

Thanks Dipoto!

[AngelsLakersFan]

Any big contract that is given out will undoubtedly be backloaded. If nothing else, it can begin with a lower salary in the first year. After that, Wilson and Weaver will be gone, saving Arte $40 millon

 

For purposes of the CBT backloading doesn't help. For purposes of trying to keep payroll at a similar level, year to year, backloading won't help since Trout's and especially Pujols' contracts are extremely backloaded. If anything I think Arte might benefit from front loading a  contract or two.

 

Also I think Hayward is going to get a front loaded contract. He's too young and talented to sign a 10 year backloaded deal, when he can get 4-8 years with an opt out. If he does get that opt out claus both parties will be looking to front load the contract.

[Jay]

We can replace Wilson and Weaver with guys we have right now that would be an upgrade, saving almost $40 million

 

Yeah but an upgrade from those two isn't saying very much.