Orange County Register: Angels Notes: Arte Moreno willing to exceed luxury tax threshold

[Homebrewer]

I just don't see Grienke. Who is going to out-pay the Doggies for him?

The guy had a superhuman season, and it isn't over yet.

 

Price might be wearing a WS ring soon, is he going to be allowed to go somewhere else?

(depends on Toronto wanting to keep the team they have together, I guess, or go Marlins.)

Edited October 6, 2015 by Homebrewer

[Brent Maguire]

Greinke is probably a lock to stay in LA.

 

Price is probably going to break Scherzer's record for biggest FA contract for a pitcher. I expect the Yankees and Red Sox to throw 200+ million at him. 

[Homebrewer]

Kevin Brown??

Penthouse suites and private jets??

Edited October 6, 2015 by Homebrewer

[totdprods]

It just feels like if we don't make a big commitment to free agency this offseason, one in which the talent pool is deep, we will have little opportunity to make any sort of a known impact to the team. I also think that the current CBA is quite unbalanced and we will see some significant changes to free agency, arbitration, drafts, compensation in the next agreement, which makes relying on free agency the next couple of offseasons even more unpredictable.

Take the hit this year, spend big and often on a rich class, and then immediately focus on scouting and amateur level talent.

And I'm not really suggesting go sign everyone that is going to command top dollar, we don't need the best avail pitcher, hitter, and reliever, but we do need solid players.

One A-level guy (Greinke, Cespedes, Price, Davis, Cueto) and maybe two B-level (Zobrist, Leake, Span, Clippard, O'Day) or a couple C-level guys (Hunter, Villanueva, Rasmus, Jackson)

Edited October 6, 2015 by totdprods

[AngelsLakersFan]

That's what I was thinking also.  Because so far, the right players he has spent on are Pujols, Hamilton, and Trout.  I guess in baseball, batting .333 is pretty good.  

 

My thinking is, he's gona have a hard time finding "the right player." Trout is a no-brainer. On the free agent market though, there are rarely any players that constitute a smart buy.

 

It almost sounds like the way the Oakland A's run their team. They do dip into the FA market from time to time. When they have played well in the past people are always quoting just how great their wins/$ (wins per dollar) or their WAR/$ was. In the end that doesn't win championships. Teams like the Yankees and Red Sox were great examples of the counter argument. Their wins/$ is terrible every year. Look at the Dodgers this year, lol. In the end teams don't win because they got great deals on their contracts.

[ettin]

It's good to know that the Eppler and Scioscia will collaborate on needs for the team. They'll produce a list of players that fit those needs. I have no doubt Eppler will have complete control of the process. Arte's involvement will be limited to the financial side of the process.

The Dipoto fiasco was a lesson learned.

 

It's so good of you to share the future with us and how much you were so heavily involved in front office operations in the past. You are an invaluable asset to this site.

[VariousCrap]

Here is what the Angels need:

 

- Starting pitcher

- LF

- 3B or 2B

- Relief pitcher

 

Obviously, the Angels need help offensively.  I'd like to see them sign Heyward for LF, Zobrist for 3B and keep Johnny G at 2B.

 

I'd love to see the Angels sign an ace like Price or Cueto, but I just don't see that happening.  So one of the solid non-ace arms makes sense.  This is especially true because I think we'll seen the Angels trade Santiago or Shoemaker this offseason.  So I think the Angels should sign either Mike Leake or Wei-Yin Chen for the starting rotation.

 

As for a relief pitcher, any of the top end relief arms would do.  Like others have mentioned, I'd love to see O'Day back.

Edited October 7, 2015 by VariousCrap

[angelinkc]

I think we end up with parra or Byrd, colon, and a few relievers

[angelinkc]

I could also see uribe in the mix

[zenmaster]

Price

Cespedes/Heyward

Zobrist

O'Day

 

Anything less and I revolt

[wopphil]

Price

Cespedes/Heyward

Zobrist

O'Day

Anything less and I revolt

I really like this plan. We'd destroy the tax threshold for 2016 (and probably beyond), but the team would be good. And between the money coming off the books in 2017 and the expiration of the CBA, we could probably get below the tax threshold eventually.

[Angel Oracle]

The Register gave the expected Halos players salaries for 2016.

It seemed like they still had some $60 million to spare to get to the $189 million threshold, although I could have read that wrong.

 

Time for GB to revive his yearly recap of expected 2016 salaries?   

Edited October 7, 2015 by Angel Oracle

[gotbeer]

The Register gave the expected Halos players salaries for 2016.

It seemed like they still had some $60 million to spare to get to the $189 million threshold, although I could have read that wrong.

 

Time for GB to revive his yearly recap of expected 2016 salaries?   

 

If I have time tomorrow, I'll take a look at it.

[NrM]

Price

Cespedes/Heyward

Zobrist

O'Day

 

Anything less and I revolt

 

 

Can all be had for the combined minuscule price of 400 million dollars

Edited October 8, 2015 by Poozy

[NrM]

I really like this plan. We'd destroy the tax threshold for 2016 (and probably beyond), but the team would be good. And between the money coming off the books in 2017 and the expiration of the CBA, we could probably get below the tax threshold eventually.

 

Calhoun and Richards will be making 10-15 million in 2017

 

so in 2017

 

Pujols - 27 million

Hamilton - 26 million

Price - 20+ million

Cespedes/Heyward - 20+ million

Trout - 20 million

Calhoun -10-15 million

Richards - 10-15 million

Zobrist - 10-15 million

 

So around 150 million committed to 7 players in 2017...oh and they'd still have to find players to fill the other 20 or so roster spots..haha

Edited October 8, 2015 by Poozy

[Docwaukee]

without exercising any of the teams options, payroll is at 160mil for next year.  Letting Salas, Ramos and Cowgill walk will save another 5 mil so they are around 155mil.  

 

Relative to the CBT:

Albert -1

Trout  +8

Weaver  -4.5

Wilson -3

Street +1

Aybar -0.5

Smith 0

Hamilton -3

 

So we are almost dead on our CBT number relative to payroll yet player benefits are added to the tune of 15mil or so.  

Therefore, our cap number is probably around 170mil.

 

So that give the team about 20mil to spend and still be around the CBT max.  

 

Going over once will cost you 17.5%, but going over a second year in a row will cost you 30% (40% for a third year and 50% for a fourth)

So the key for this years spending is going back under for 2017.

 

The threshold has yet to be determined, but I think it's going to go up to about 200mil.  I could be wrong, but let's call it that for kicks.  

 

Weavers AAV of 15.5, Wilson's 17, Smith's 5, and Aybar's 8 all come off the books giving you an additional 45 ish off the 170 or near 125 mil.  If the threshold is around 200, that about 70mil.  If you max it out, you're gonna pay an additional 5mil in benefits plus, you're gonna need a SS whether it's an aybar extension or a free agent signing.  Also, your gonna want to get Calhoun and Richards extended which will cost you about an additional 3-4mil per guy in AAV above their arb.  Call it 8 total.  

 

So for 2017 you're at around 125+8+5+15.  Call it 155.  Plus, you want some breathing room so give an extra 10 or so as a cushion. I'm also assuming that a bunch of the guys going to arb in 2017 would be offset by league min players.  

 

Which means you could spend around 35mil worth of AAV and still be comfortable for next year.  You could get creative and get a player for SS that would cost you league min next year as well as trade Santiago.  You can also play pretty tight to the threshold for 2017 because hamilton's money comes off for 2018 as does Street's.  

 

So you could probably spend close to 45-50 this offseason and still be ok by 2018.  

 

My ideal offseason would be:

 

Zobrist 15mil aav

Trade Santiago for Martin Prado.  +5mil aav

Cespedes 20mil

Clippard 7mil

Cueto 18mil

 

but that's plus 65mil so it's not gonna happen

 

I could live with

Prado +5

Latos on a 1yr 7mil deal

Clippard 7mil

Cespedes 20mil

 

That's +40.  

 

It's not as much room as I thought though.   

[Blarg]

I really have the feeling Cespedes is going to return to his career numbers from the A's which means a .310 OBP and .750 OPS. Or simply put a free agent bust. His career has been all over the place so to say he is going to be worth $20 million in payroll is really gambling. I would rather the Angels look for a more stable personality and career path that you can clearly say, that is who that guy is and what he will provide.

[CanadianHalo]

No one has any interest in Samardzija? There's no way Arte shells out the kind of deal some of the true aces (Price, Cueto, Grienke) all going to get (200+) and still fill the void in LF with one of the top FA's as well.

Samardzija may be the best tier 2 type guy available and still leave Arte room for a LF'er like Cespedes or Heyward. After hearing Eppler's comments on finding guys with a "patiently aggressive approach" at the plate I think we can all rule out Justin Upton.

I still like a Samardzija, Ceapedes combo but I'd prefer YC to hit second like he did in Detroit. They still need to find that true leadoff hitter that'd make the whole lineup better. It looks like they'll keep Murphy so if they plug in a power LF'er our leadoff hitter needs to come from either 2nd base or 3rd base.

Eppler's going to be a busy man this offseason

[totdprods]

I think David Freese is an extremely important domino for this offseason.

 

If you keep him, you can stick with Freese, Giavotella, and Perez for '16 and at least reasonably expect comparable production from 2B, 3B, and C.

Furthermore, if you keep him on a qualifying offer, you are doing so at the cost of a 1-yr commitment for whatever the difference in a QO and Freese's '15 salary. That scenario allows the Angels to go into the 2017 season with Perez, Giavotella, and Cowart/Kubitza at 3rd for cheap, and would only hit the '16 luxury tax. That makes going over this season for top-tier an easier pill to swallow.

 

If he walks, now you have to worry about obvious upgrades (OF/SP) and potential upgrades (2B, 3B, C, because you won't go with in-house for all three) and you're looking at having almost too many options. That's what leads to overpaying, bidding wars, last resort options, or no favorable options at all.

 

Alternatively, instead of offering Freese a QO, you could sign a Juan Uribe/Case McGehee/Kelly Johnson type to a 1-year deal, but I think going with Freese would be a better route; you know what you are getting, and if he doesn't sign, hey, you can get a draft pick and still sign one of those for a 1-year deal.

 

The only way relying on Giavotella, Perez, and Cowart/Kubitza makes sense is if we significantly upgrade the rotation, bullpen, and outfield with top-tier additions, and upgrading all three just doesn't seem likely.

 

Zobrist seems to be the only truly appealing option for 2B/3B, but virtually any and every team could use him - his list of suitors will be extremely high. If the Angels miss out on him, there's not much else out there, so if the team invests in that route and fails to sign him, we may be too late to make moves elsewhere. I just don't see where the Angels would have an advantage to signing Zobrist.

Edited October 8, 2015 by totdprods

[Troll Daddy]

I really have the feeling Cespedes is going to return to his career numbers from the A's which means a .310 OBP and .750 OPS. Or simply put a free agent bust. His career has been all over the place so to say he is going to be worth $20 million in payroll is really gambling. I would rather the Angels look for a more stable personality and career path that you can clearly say, that is who that guy is and what he will provide.

Wait a second ... are we allowed to make decisions with gut feelings?

[NrM]

I could be wrong, but it seems like the angels avoid giving qualifying offers as much as they can.

[Stradling]

I could be wrong, but it seems like the angels avoid giving qualifying offers as much as they can.

Yea I kind of agree but then again who was the last player that deserved a qualifying offer?

[tdawg87]

I really have the feeling Cespedes is going to return to his career numbers from the A's which means a .310 OBP and .750 OPS. Or simply put a free agent bust. His career has been all over the place so to say he is going to be worth $20 million in payroll is really gambling. I would rather the Angels look for a more stable personality and career path that you can clearly say, that is who that guy is and what he will provide.

 

3rd best hitter on the Angels. I could live with that.

[greginpsca]

Cespedes will probably resign with the Mets.  That is why i think Span Or Revere would be a better buy. Either can bat leadoff and provide good defense at a more reasonable price.

[ten ocho recon scout]

I like the span idea too. But i still think we need to add more thump. Maybe sign him and chris davis, package cron up with santiago and try to land a better 3B/2B option?