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Let's have realistic expectations


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Shane Victorino, age 34: .245/.324/.298 in 106 PA for Red Sox this year, .268/.303/.382 in 133 PA last year. Hasn't been really good since 2013 (.294/.351/.451 in 532 PA).

 

David DeJesus, age 35: .259/.323/.375 in 257 PA for the Rays this year. Hasn't had an .800 OPS since 2010.

 

David Murphy, age 33: .296/.344/.437 in 229 PA for Indians. Best year since 2012, but 2013 was a .656 OPS and 2014 a .703 OPS, so some regression this year is possible/likely.

 

Look, I like these trades because they came cheap. Victorino seems like he has some upside considering he's been injured the last two years, and Murphy is much better than anything the Angels have (DeJesus is OK, but seems superfluous). But they're mainly good moves because of this:

 

Matt Joyce, age 30: .178/.274/.298 in 278 PA.

 

Joyce has been an absolute train-wreck and pretty much anyone would be an upgrade at this point. But let's not fool ourselves: the Angels brought in three guys in their mid-30s on the wrong sides of their careers. They're mainly only upgrades in that they are warm bodies, while Joyce was essentially a walking corpse.

 

The point being: Don't expect the three new guys to light it up. Maybe Victorino and/or DeJesus rediscover the fountain of youth over the last couple months, or maybe Murphy holds steady and provides quality league average production for the rest of the year. But let's temper our expectations a bit.

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These guys could turn out to be what Ibanez and Joyce were for us or they could hit for their career averages, no one knows.

I was hoping to acquire a leadoff or power bat or at the very least some speed, we didn't do any of that so I'm definitely in a wait and see mode with these moves, hopefully they work out!

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Ok AJ now post their numbers in the roles they will be playing. So Murphy against righties, victor ink against lefties, DeJesus against righties and Cron against lefties (I think I got that right). Compare that to Robertson, Joyce and Cron.

Cron 177 AB 260/293/407/699

Robertson 73 AB 288/307/315/622

Joyce 242 AB 178/274/298/572

Cron against LHP 59 AB 322/328/475/802

DeJesus against RHP 224 AB 263/331/384/715

Murphy against RHP 218 AB 303/361/454/815

Victorino against LHP 35 AB 343/439/457/896

I guess the platoons work against starting pitching but DeJesus would definitely have to be removed against a LH reliever. I do not see Cron in a platoon so I guess that DeJesus is just a late game replacement/injury option. I like the Murphy/Victorino platoon.

Edited by LAAMike
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Shane Victorino, age 34: .245/.324/.298 in 106 PA for Red Sox this year, .268/.303/.382 in 133 PA last year. Hasn't been really good since 2013 (.294/.351/.451 in 532 PA).

 

David DeJesus, age 35: .259/.323/.375 in 257 PA for the Rays this year. Hasn't had an .800 OPS since 2010.

 

David Murphy, age 33: .296/.344/.437 in 229 PA for Indians. Best year since 2012, but 2013 was a .656 OPS and 2014 a .703 OPS, so some regression this year is possible/likely.

 

Look, I like these trades because they came cheap. Victorino seems like he has some upside considering he's been injured the last two years, and Murphy is much better than anything the Angels have (DeJesus is OK, but seems superfluous). But they're mainly good moves because of this:

 

Matt Joyce, age 30: .178/.274/.298 in 278 PA.

 

Joyce has been an absolute train-wreck and pretty much anyone would be an upgrade at this point. But let's not fool ourselves: the Angels brought in three guys in their mid-30s on the wrong sides of their careers. They're mainly only upgrades in that they are warm bodies, while Joyce was essentially a walking corpse.

 

The point being: Don't expect the three new guys to light it up. Maybe Victorino and/or DeJesus rediscover the fountain of youth over the last couple months, or maybe Murphy holds steady and provides quality league average production for the rest of the year. But let's temper our expectations a bit.

Isn't it rather unfair to make the point that because DeJesus and Victorino have had what can be considered down years, we shouldn't expect much, but because Murphy has had a good season we should expect his numbers to decline?

Seems as if anyone who comes here is destined to fail.

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Ok AJ now post their numbers in the roles they will be playing. So Murphy against righties, victor ink against lefties, DeJesus against righties and Cron against lefties (I think I got that right). Compare that to Robertson, Joyce and Cron.

 

You realize I said that they should help this club, right? I just think we should temper our expectations. League average production would be a huge boost.

 

Isn't it rather unfair to make the point that because DeJesus and Victorino have had what can be considered down years, we shouldn't expect much, but because Murphy has had a good season we should expect his numbers to decline?

Seems as if anyone who comes here is destined to fail.

 

Again, I actually said that Victorino could improve on his numbers considering he's been hurt, so you mis-read what I wrote.

 

As for Murphy, I only pointed out that he's been much better this year than the last two, so some regression is likely, statistically speaking. But that doesn't mean he can't continue.

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The overall numbers are moot in these cases, they really are.  The reality is that barring something really odd each of these guys was brought in to fill a specific platoon role between LF and the DH.

 

Against LHP we will see some combination of Cron/Victorino between LF/DH and for Righties we will get DeJesus and Murphy.  None of them are going to lead the league in WAR, but if they just reach their averages we will be improved. 

 

The only one thats likely to get time against either/or would be Murphy as far as the OF guys go as hes is ok from both sides but better from one of the other, Cron to spell Pujols, Victorino as a pinch runner cause it seems he can still motor a little, or any/all of the above as pinch hitters etc...  The rest is pretty well defined on paper. 

 

The one things this really does give us is strong matchups against pitching changes late in games... pretty much doesnt matter what the other team does, we are likely to have a guy on the bench that can step in. 
 

Edited by floplag
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As far as roster construction, until August 31, you've got:

 

9: Your starting 9 (includes 2 of the 4 above platooners)

2: The other two, in backup OF/PH role

1: Featherston (Rule 5, backing up 2b and ss)

1: Perez (Have to have a backup catcher)

1: Gillespie (when Freese gets back)  [Robertson sits in this spot until Freese gets back]

--

14 position players

11 pitchers.

 

After Aug 31, Robertson comes back up, along with Navarro, Kuby, Marte, and a couple others.  

 

Biggest bench hole, honestly, is that we're using Featherston to backup the middle infield spots.  And it's not as if anyone has someone who can really rake sitting as their backup infielder - we might have one of the worst, but the spread between worst and best isn't huge.

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Speaking of expectations...

 

Can there be a worse defensive first baseman than CJ Cron?

 

We've already seen his rock glove...but how about that genius cut off and Tee Ball-like throw? His brain forgot about the runner after Conger...and that shot put was embarrassing. 

 

Please...please...no more Cron at 1B....

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These acquisitions will help but it's easy to see how much Hamilton's contract severely impacted the type of players they could've gone after.

I actually think it's more the lack of prospects to move in a deal to get that one impact guy. Hamiels and Tulo are the only guys that will be moved that will cost a ton of money and cost a ton in talent going the other way. Neither are true needs of the team. We just have limited talent currency.

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