Moncada

[tdawg87]

Well, logically it makes sense. But they'd be offering their entire team payroll and then some for 1 guy who probably won't see time in the majors in 2015.

[KevinJ14]

Well, logically it makes sense. But they'd be offering their entire team payroll and then some for 1 guy who probably won't see time in the majors in 2015.

He said he in a recent interview with MLB.com that he wants to reach the MLB as fast as possible. He can do that with A's

[Docwaukee]

I am sure Fletch is working on finding out, but it's somewhat curious that the Halos have yet to deny any sort of involvement.  I am sure they have interest, but with the Dogs and Yanks involved, it's going to be a significant bidding war

[Dave Saltzer]

With two more Cuban defections today, the move by the Obama administration to normalize relations between our countries, etc. Moncada should sign quickly before the market on top Cuban prospects gets more diluted. All of which will push MLB to move towards a world draft. Personally, I would like to see a world draft done at a different time than the American draft and I would like to see it arranged in a way different than the reverse order of winning percentage. For example, it might be interesting if a team's world draft order was based on the reverse order of the amount of money spent on free agents that weren't on a team's roster during the previous season. So, if a team makes a big FA splash, that lowers their draft position on the World Draft.

[Angel Oracle]

To make up for their ridiculously overpriced free agent signings?

At least paying $60-80 million including the tax for a 5 tool guy with his whole MLB career ahead of him beats signing an aging superstar for twice to three times that total money.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Very few times does aomething make so much sense. I 5hink tdawg pointed out its a ton of cash for someone still a while away, and thats a very good point. That said, much like when we whiffed on beltre (who i was very vocal aboit wanting), they beed to look at our system depth as well as market. There are no 3Bs in our system (though the kid from atlanta could suprise), and none of impact are likely to hit the market any time soon.

Its frustrating because we aigned hamilton, who at the time was a question mark, when we already had plenty of outfielders. In this case its something we need and will continue to need.

If we dont get him but open the wallet again next year for a more established guy like upton, or price or someone lik le that, ill understand it more. And im not advocating blowing the bank on womeone just for the sake of doing it. But you have to either spend/develop/trade for solutions to your holes. Weve spent poorly recently, obviously, but we havent exactly done well to develop a solution at 3B in years, and were super thin on trade chips.

Lastly, were on a good path to developing a solid core for 2017-2020. IMO, it would be a good idea to further solidify that by having good players under 30 at most positions. Moncada, baldoquin, yarborogh, trout (assuming he stays), cron (who could be a total bust) is a good start to supplement the newcomb, tropeano, heaney, skaggs and hopefully grich years

[Angel Oracle]

At least sign Ibanez or Olivera, seeing that nothing can be done for the next two years any way.

[wopphil]

I am curious, why does everyone believe Moncado is a can't miss superstar? How often does a teenager come along that is universally regarded as can't miss? I can think of only a few teenage prospects labeled "can't miss" who have made their mark in the big leagues in recent years (Harper, Mauer). But by and large, any teenager is going to be a question mark.

This isn't to say that Moncada isn't a stud and won't be a great player, just that I can understand how a team wouldn't gamble $75,000,000 on him. Hell, look at how many teams passed on Jared Weaver - a polished college pitcher - because they didn't want to gamble $10,000,000 (his perceived bonus demands).

[tdawg87]

Did you just forget to mention our Lord and Savior, Mr. Trout?

[tdawg87]

Also, of course it's a risk, but all international signings are. They've passed on these types of players pretty much every single year. They blew past their spending limit and sacrificed 2 years of drafting for a MIF'er no one had even heard of before, so they might as well go all out and get the big fish while they can.

[eaterfan]

I am curious, why does everyone believe Moncado is a can't miss superstar? How often does a teenager come along that is universally regarded as can't miss? I can think of only a few teenage prospects labeled "can't miss" who have made their mark in the big leagues in recent years (Harper, Mauer). But by and large, any teenager is going to be a question mark.

This isn't to say that Moncada isn't a stud and won't be a great player, just that I can understand how a team wouldn't gamble $75,000,000 on him. Hell, look at how many teams passed on Jared Weaver - a polished college pitcher - because they didn't want to gamble $10,000,000 (his perceived bonus demands).

There are questions with every FA signing. But the market is very different than it was a few years ago as far as money goes.

I wouldn't even consider this guy a can't miss along the lines of Griffey, A-Rod, Harper, Hamilton for teens or Strasburg or Prior for college kids. But a lot of those can't miss kids don't miss.

[ukyah]

I am curious, why does everyone believe Moncado is a can't miss superstar? How often does a teenager come along that is universally regarded as can't miss? I can think of only a few teenage prospects labeled "can't miss" who have made their mark in the big leagues in recent years (Harper, Mauer). But by and large, any teenager is going to be a question mark.

This isn't to say that Moncada isn't a stud and won't be a great player, just that I can understand how a team wouldn't gamble $75,000,000 on him. Hell, look at how many teams passed on Jared Weaver - a polished college pitcher - because they didn't want to gamble $10,000,000 (his perceived bonus demands).

 

 

valid questions. it boils down to a philosophy of paying a guy for what you think he's going to do in your uniform, rather than what he's done in another uniform. additionally, the age differences between these guys and the average FA, which is post 30 years old. lastly, the contract demands are significantly less as well. moncada is the outlier and even with penalties his contract will be less than a lot of FA and virtually none of it goes against your tax assessment.

 

i'd much rather the angels miss on a young stud with years of potential production ahead of him, than an older player with years of production behind him. 

[Docwaukee]

shelling out that much money for a unknown player is a huge risk. 

 

the ROI on the top foreign free agents is considerable less palatable than it used to be because of that tax.  

 

and it's gonna be more than the stated contract if the kid ends up being very good because he will opt into arb.  So by the time everything is said and done, your gonna probably end up spending 100+mil for the first six years of major league club control.  

 

So what happens if he ends up just being solid?  What happens if it takes him 3 years to get to the majors.  Then you've paid 80mil for 3 years of big league play and then he goes to arb as well.  

 

It's a lot more complicated than giving this kid 40mil and then pay a tax.  the timeline of when he actually comes up and what his arb years cost is a huge factor as well.   

 

don't get me wrong, I'd be thrilled if we signed him, but it's not as much of a no brainer as people are making it out to be.  

[Chimi]

I'm waiting for a local beat writer to post a Jerry Dipoto quote that says "we're happy with the current state of our farm system and we're not looking to add any pieces at this time."

[UCLAngel]

So what happens if he ends up just being solid?  What happens if it takes him 3 years to get to the majors.  Then you've paid 80mil for 3 years of big league play and then he goes to arb as well.  

 

It's a lot more complicated than giving this kid 40mil and then pay a tax.  the timeline of when he actually comes up and what his arb years cost is a huge factor as well.   

 

I was under the impression that he is subject to the standard rules, i.e., he could take 5 years to reach the majors and the team would still have 6 years of control.  Admittedly, I'm not sure, but that's how I thought it worked with the international players who are still considered amateurs.

 

On the arbitration point, it would be interesting to see whether he would even consider arbitration.  Even if he's performing at superstar level, superstars in their first year of arbitration still don't make a ton.  Look at the first year arbitration cases for some of the recent greats - Kershaw set records with his $7.5M in his first year or arb.  Ryan Howard got $10M but he hit 47 homers and had 136 RBIs the year before.  If the kid elects arbitration, it means he probably had a monster year before and he still might take a slight pay cut the first year hoping to make it up on the back end.  He'll probably be getting around $7M a year. 

 

Whether or not these international signees waive their right to arbitration is another question.  I haven't heard of any going to arbitration, so I have no idea whether that remains part of their amateur status.  Do you know for sure that's the case?

[Jeff Fletcher]

I am sure Fletch is working on finding out, but it's somewhat curious that the Halos have yet to deny any sort of involvement. I am sure they have interest, but with the Dogs and Yanks involved, it's going to be a significant bidding war

No GM is going to go on record saying "We are not signing Moncada" or any FA. It doesn't work that way. However, they will tell writers privately that they aren't going after a player and then writers report that Team X is not after a player, which has been reported numerous times on the Angels.

[Jeff Fletcher]

International amateurs like Moncada and Baldoqin go into the system under exactly the same rules as any other drafted player AFTER they sign.

Only difference is that the No. 1 pick in the draft gets about $7 million and these guys get $8M (Baldoquin) or $40M (Moncada). The tax doubles the cost to the team.

Beyond that, though they are just like other players.

That means they are arb eligible after 3 years of service time, free agents after six.

[Angel Oracle]

There are questions with every FA signing. But the market is very different than it was a few years ago as far as money goes.

I wouldn't even consider this guy a can't miss along the lines of Griffey, A-Rod, Harper, Hamilton for teens or Strasburg or Prior for college kids. But a lot of those can't miss kids don't miss.

They stand out, but there truly aren't that many Brien Taylors or Matt Bushs that totally flop.

[Troll Daddy]

I've read the A's are also going to make a serious run for this kid.

Btw I just watched Roberto Baldoquin on You Tube ... he looks promising.

[Angels Never Die]

I'd consider it a colossal failure if the Yankees don't sign him. If there was ever a time to just throw a shit ton of money at someone, do it for an uber-talented 19 year old who can play the left side of the infield (where they've lost two star players in recent years.)