Cowgill is 15th in the AL in WAR and 90% of the guys ahead of him have 200+ more ABs

[Stradling]

But you do realize, Stradling, that he's essentially saying "We see what we want to see, or what supports our bias."

I mean, I'll be the first to admit that when Trout's Defensive WAR was going down I started writing Def WAR off. But I think that speaks to my homerism more than it does to WAR being wrong about Trout. (FYI, Trout's Def has been going up again over the last couple weeks - so I'm starting to think WAR might be good again )

I do get that we see what we want to see, however I have watched a ton of baseball over the years. I will be the first to admit that Bourjos was better defensively than Trout, but to say Trout is below average defensively isn't true. How many balls a year are hit to CF or in the gaps where you say to yourself, Trout should've made that catch? Perhaps a couple, maybe. His arm isn't good, outside of that how is he a below defensive CFer? And would you put such a weight in defensive metric of a CFer on arm? I certainly wouldn't.

[Blarg]

I haven't looked deeply into the platoon numbers or anything like that, but why is Freese DHing when Cowgill is an option (assuming Beckham at 3rd and the regular starting outfield)?

 

Scioscia can't put a DH back into the field. So if Hamilton, Trout or Calhoun need to leave the game for any reason, Cowgill is the primary backup. If Beckham, Kendrick or Aybar need to leave the game there is McDonald to cover defensively. It is the same reason Ianetta doesn't DH when Conger catches.

[m0nkey]

A dh can go into the field. The team just has to insert the pitcher's spot into the lineup

[eaterfan]

Scioscia can't put a DH back into the field. So if Hamilton, Trout or Calhoun need to leave the game for any reason, Cowgill is the primary backup. If Beckham, Kendrick or Aybar need to leave the game there is McDonald to cover defensively. It is the same reason Ianetta doesn't DH when Conger catches.

 

I hate that logic for both and should apply even less for the OF. Navarro has played there this year, and Kendrick has manned LF in the past. If it is so much of an emergency they can be moved out there. It isn't like having to put a guy in at C who has never played there. But even in a worst case scenario a pitcher may have to take an AB. It seems silly to have Freese taking a dozen or more ABs away from Cowgill so a pitcher might not have to have a PA once this season (excluding interleague).

 

Maybe with expanded rosters we can get a second back up outfielder in case someone goes down.

[Blarg]

Navarro is the primary backup for Pujols.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

It's stats like this, and the fact that Donaldson is higher than Trout, that make me a little skeptical about WAR.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

Scioscia can't put a DH back into the field. So if Hamilton, Trout or Calhoun need to leave the game for any reason, Cowgill is the primary backup. If Beckham, Kendrick or Aybar need to leave the game there is McDonald to cover defensively. It is the same reason Ianetta doesn't DH when Conger catches.

 

This is the funniest post I've seen in here, in a very long time.  

[eaterfan]

So now we're giving ABs to Freese instead of Cowgill because we might have to let a pitcher hit once or twice if both an outfielder and Pujols get injured early in the same game?

But assuming this happened even before the call ups why don't you just move Howie/Navarro to 1B/LF and have Beckham or MacDonald cover second? That's even assuming you can't make switches to keep moving the pitcher's spot to avoid ABs abd just putting Navarro at 1B and Cowgill in the OF.

[Blarg]

Yes, that is the reason.

[tdawg87]

WAR has always been questionable, but there is absolutely no reason for Josh Donaldson to lead the majors in that stat. There is absolutely no reason for Jason Heyward to lead the NL in that stat.

 

It seems like something with the formula for dWAR changed this year because there are some seriously skewed stats out there. Jhonny Peralta has a 2.5 dWAR, highest of his career by a long shot. The aforementioned Heyward has a 3.0 dWAR, which is absolutely hilarious for a right fielder. That's double his career high. Then there's our good friend Donaldson, who, despite making an MLB leading 21 errors, has a 2.6 dWAR. I'm well aware that errors are not a good stat to judge a fielder and I am also well aware that Donaldson is a good defensive third baseman overall. But how in the holy **** does 21 errors in 125 games translate to a career high in dWAR?

 

Perhaps I'm just ignorant when it comes to the stat but good lord has it lost credibility this year.

[Angels]

UZR likes those guys, too.. But not nearly as much as DRS does. DRS takes it to extremes. There are quite a few things wrong with defensive metrics in general but i think UZR>>DRS as far as being closer to reality is concerned. Fangraphs uses UZR for dWAR while baseball reference uses DRS.

[Blarg]

It is all in how these formulas keep changing their weighting as more data is added in. Range factor gets Donaldson to a lot of balls that get by the average guy but for some reason there is a balance disconnect between getting the glove on the ball and tossing it into a dugout. Like all of those errors are forgivable and don't affect the outcome of the inning.

Maybe the formula is getting more accurate and you will find more players getting a positive score as opposed to previously where the same guy doing the same thing rates lower. Or maybe this version is ****ed up and is ass backwards. It is the yearly inconsistencies of stats that leave for some great arguments.

[YouthofToday]

Defensive stats still need to be better refined to take into consideration shifts, etc.

[Blarg]

Shifts are retarded.

[Stradling]

WAR has always been questionable, but there is absolutely no reason for Josh Donaldson to lead the majors in that stat. There is absolutely no reason for Jason Heyward to lead the NL in that stat.

It seems like something with the formula for dWAR changed this year because there are some seriously skewed stats out there. Jhonny Peralta has a 2.5 dWAR, highest of his career by a long shot. The aforementioned Heyward has a 3.0 dWAR, which is absolutely hilarious for a right fielder. That's double his career high. Then there's our good friend Donaldson, who, despite making an MLB leading 21 errors, has a 2.6 dWAR. I'm well aware that errors are not a good stat to judge a fielder and I am also well aware that Donaldson is a good defensive third baseman overall. But how in the holy **** does 21 errors in 125 games translate to a career high in dWAR?

Perhaps I'm just ignorant when it comes to the stat but good lord has it lost credibility this year.

As I am sure you know Tdawg I don't know much about stats, but my guess about Donaldson goes like this. If he has incredible range, which it is really good, and he gets to say, 35 extra balls more than the average third baseman gets too and he makes 21 errors, he is still creating 14 more outs than the average player. That is the only guess I have for this.

Hey Stat Guys, do all these shifts really screw up range factor? How is it graded? Is it graded from where they are standing when the ball is hit, or is it where the ball is fielded compared to where the player is usually positioned?

[Angels]

UZR pretty much ignores defensive shifts. They're excluded from their results. DRS, on the other hand, appears vulnerable to defensive shifts and the results can get screwed.

[Angels]

Defensive stats still need to be better refined to take into consideration shifts, etc.

Shifts are simply ignored by UZR. They're not included. A big problem with these metrics that can totally skew results is the defensive positioning of players. Not everyone is positioned the same exact way relative to the position being played.

[Halos of Anaheim]

I don't think you looked at it correctly.

Nah, ESPN does some stupid thing where the second a player finishes their game they're removed from the stat rankings for an update. I checked that list at like 7pm pacific after 90% of the teams had finished playing their games for the day. All players should be updated after every game in the league is finished, totally confused the hell out of me lol.

 

This thread is null and void now, but carry on with your WAR discussions.

Edited September 2, 2014 by Halos of Anaheim

[moccasin]

If you're going to adjust offensive stats to ball parks, then defensive stats must be adjusted too. Ballparks like Kaufmann, Turner and Oakland have a lot of space for fielders to make plays. If you play there, of course you're going to get more opportunities. WAR is an accumulative stat you know. The more chances, the higher WAR. 

 

Give good corner IF and OF a lot of foul space(and space overall), they will get to a lot of balls that other players can't.