Josh Donaldson and David Freese

[AngelsFanSince86]

So I was looking at 3B fielding stats because one of my friends had mentioned Donaldson has 15 errors on the season.  David Freese interestingly enough has made the fewest errors among 3rd baseman (1 error, giving him the highest fielding % as well), although his range factor is among the lowest at 2.21.  On the other hand, Donaldson has the highest range factor of any 3rd baseman (3.47), but has made the second most errors at 15 and has the 4th lowest fielding %.  Yet Donaldson has a dWAR of 2.1 and Freese has a dWAR of -0.5.  Not incredibly surprised by Freese's given his limited range, but how is Donaldson's so high?  His range is greater, but he's also made twice as many errors as the average 3rd baseman.  

Edited July 14, 2014 by AngelsFanSince86

[laagamer]

Yay, fielding metrics. 

[AngelsFanSince86]

Yea I know defensive WAR is pretty unreliable.  Didn't think it was that bad. Just wondering if I am missing something.

[Willy J.]

What ever were doing it's working; keep doing it until it stops working.

[eaterfan]

Errors are so infrequent they make little difference. You are far better off with a guy who makes 10 plays a month the other guy can't than commits 5-10 more errors over the course of a season. This is exactly why defensive metrics are valuable.

[Hollyw00d]

So I was looking at 3B fielding stats because one of my friends had mentioned Donaldson has 15 errors on the season.  David Freese interestingly enough has made the fewest errors among 3rd baseman (1 error, giving him the highest fielding % as well), although his range factor is among the lowest at 2.21.  On the other hand, Donaldson has the highest range factor of any 3rd baseman (3.47), but has made the second most errors at 15 and has the 4th lowest fielding %.  Yet Donaldson has a dWAR of 2.1 and Freese has a dWAR of -0.5.  Not incredibly surprised by Freese's given his limited range, but how is Donaldson's so high?  His range is greater, but he's also made twice as many errors as the average 3rd baseman.

Because he gets to balls that other 3rd baseman don't because of his range. And naturally he is going to have more errors because he is making tougher plays. Errors also need to be taken with a grain of salt, it's a very subjective stat.

Freese makes the routine plays, but he also lets a lot of balls get by that probably would be caught by a better fielder. It's like saying jeter is a great SS because he's fundamentally sound and makes the plays he should.

[Inside Pitch]

So I was looking at 3B fielding stats because one of my friends had mentioned Donaldson has 15 errors on the season.  David Freese interestingly enough has made the fewest errors among 3rd baseman (1 error, giving him the highest fielding % as well), although his range factor is among the lowest at 2.21.  On the other hand, Donaldson has the highest range factor of any 3rd baseman (3.47), but has made the second most errors at 15 and has the 4th lowest fielding %.  Yet Donaldson has a dWAR of 2.1 and Freese has a dWAR of -0.5.  Not incredibly surprised by Freese's given his limited range, but how is Donaldson's so high?  His range is greater, but he's also made twice as many errors as the average 3rd baseman.  

 

 

If a guy gets to 30 more balls and only convert's half of them into outs that's still 15 more outs than the guy who is a statue.  Being sure handed is great, but a guy that is turning hits into outs is significantly better.

Edited July 14, 2014 by Inside Pitch

[AngelsFanSince86]

Good points guys, never thought about it like that.

[rageous]

So I was looking at 3B fielding stats because one of my friends had mentioned Donaldson has 15 errors on the season.  David Freese interestingly enough has made the fewest errors among 3rd baseman (1 error, giving him the highest fielding % as well), although his range factor is among the lowest at 2.21.  On the other hand, Donaldson has the highest range factor of any 3rd baseman (3.47), but has made the second most errors at 15 and has the 4th lowest fielding %.  Yet Donaldson has a dWAR of 2.1 and Freese has a dWAR of -0.5.  Not incredibly surprised by Freese's given his limited range, but how is Donaldson's so high?  His range is greater, but he's also made twice as many errors as the average 3rd baseman.  

One of the things I would note is that B-Ref uses DRS and Fangraphs uses UZR.

It has been agreed that by most advanced stat guys that UZR is more accurate way of judging defense and UZR is showing much smaller defensive value for Donaldson so I would use that number.

[SoCALkid]

Yet Sosh still replaces him with McDonald in the late innings.

[AngelsFanSince86]

One of the things I would note is that B-Ref uses DRS and Fangraphs uses UZR.

It has been agreed that by most advanced stat guys that UZR is more accurate way of judging defense and UZR is showing much smaller defensive value for Donaldson so I would use that number.

Oh OK. Cool thanks. Still familiarizing myself with WAR and the differences between fangraphs and baseball reference

[tdawg87]

Errors aren't the best way to judge a player defensively. That said, defensive metrics are still incredibly screwed up and inconsistent. There is no reason Donaldson should be on pace for an 8+ WAR season this year. None. He's a good defensive 3rd baseman, make no mistake. But come on now.

[Angelsjunky]

To be fair, BR has him on a pace for about 7.7 WAR and Fangraphs 6.1, which seems more reasonable. Although still, his hitting has all but disappeared and he's now hitting .238/.317/.449, which is still good for a 116 wRC+ but seems low for 6+ WAR. But his defense has been tremendous.

[AngelsLakersFan]

It's also a little over a half season of performance. The numbers are about 1/3rd as statistically significant as offensive stats.

[Blarg]

I hope you all remember that errors are insignificant when Howie misplays a ball.

[Ender]

I also don't understand defensive metrics. I don't know why Kyle Seager is not rated higher defensively. If his defense wasn't so low he'd be projected higher than Donaldson.

[Lou]

Errors are so infrequent they make little difference. You are far better off with a guy who makes 10 plays a month the other guy can't than commits 5-10 more errors over the course of a season. This is exactly why defensive metrics are valuable.

5-10 more errors? we're barely at the ASbreak and that number is already at 14.

[tdawg87]

5-10 more errors? we're barely at the ASbreak and that number is already at 14.

 

15. Get it right dumbass!

[Lou]

15. Get it right dumbass!

15-1=14

public school?

[tdawg87]

im drunk ok i cant

[tdawg87]

and yes

[Lou]

Ha

I was going to ask:

"public school or whiskey? "

[eaterfan]

5-10 more errors? we're barely at the ASbreak and that number is already at 14.

 

I was talking about a hypothetical player but you are right. He has made 14 more errors than Freese. On the other hand he has played in 21 more games than Freese. Freese won't come close to 20 errors in the next 20 games. But Donaldson has had 305 total chances in 3.5 months. Freese has gotten 128 chances in 3.5 months. That is 50 more chances per month that Donaldson gets. It's not really fair to penalize Freese for the time he spent on the DL so I'll give him 2.5 months played even though dWAR is a counting stat so playing more helps that and also really Freese really missed less than a whole month. That brings the number to almost exactly 30 more chances a month; triple the 10 plays a month I gave in my hypothetical situation.

 

Now Donaldson is making a little less than 5 errors a month so only 25 of those chances are converted to outs. But basically Donaldson is creating almost an entire extra game's worth of outs every single month that Freese isn't getting to. That's before factoring in that Freese has started 10 double plays to 26 from Donaldson. There are some mitigating factors (the pitching styles of the pitchers may create more chances for Donaldson, defensive shifts can factor in and the extra foul ground in Oakland will give him some chances to make plays no other player would have. But his PO rate isn't a higher percentage of his total chances than many of the 3B in the AL. Another thing is that since Donaldson and Freese are 3B it stands to reason a good number of the chances that Freese doesn't get to are down the line and go for doubles and not just singles. 

Edited July 15, 2014 by eaterfan

[Lou]

and there's as good a chance that Donaldson sails a throw over 1B and the runner ends up @ 2B. Actually, there's a better chance since I've actually seen that happen.

and, no, I'm not saying FFreese is a better fielder. I'm saying Donaldson isn't good either

[eaterfan]

and there's as good a chance that Donaldson sails a throw over 1B and the runner ends up @ 2B. Actually, there's a better chance since I've actually seen that happen.

and, no, I'm not saying FFreese is a better fielder. I'm saying Donaldson isn't good either

 

It's happened, but the difference between 1st and 2nd base isn't as great as between being out and being on 1st. But once again, errors happen so infrequently that it is not really a huge difference maker comparatively. Theoretically half of the chances that Freese doesn't get would go up the line for doubles. This isn't true because he probably guards the line tighter and more of the missed chances he surrenders are singles, but even if it's 20 percent that comes to 5 extra doubles a month he's giving up. Or basically 17.5 more doubles so far. Even if every error resulted in the runner getting the extra base Donaldson was still better. 

 

But this isn't just Freese. Donaldson has 305 chances in 85 games. The three next closest 3B in the AL are at 251,251 and 227 chances in 90,91 and 94 games. Those players have 7,7 and 6 errors combined. That means Donaldson has created about 50 more outs and 75 more outs than the 2nd, and 4th best defenders at creating outs in the whole AL. That's almost 2 games and 3 games worth of outs he's created over the next closest defenders when it comes to creating chances. That brings a lot of value. Over a full season that's 3-6 games created over the next closest defenders.