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Not trying to be a downer, but early season run differentials can be a little misleading.  The Angels have won 4 blowouts by a total of 42 runs.

So can early season records. Angels are terrible in one run games. Hopefully that will even out.

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Not trying to be a downer, but early season run differentials can be a little misleading.  The Angels have won 4 blowouts by a total of 42 runs. 

 

And they have lost 7 games by a total of 7 runs.    In fact, they have lost their last 8 games by a combined 10 runs -- you tell me what has more room for random chance, losing by 1 or lucking into a blowout 10 run victory?    I understand people may be reluctant to buy into the offense being being as good as the numbers but offense is only half of the equation....  The Angels have quietly dropped their team ERA to 3.75, fourth best in the AL.   So, lets pretend the Angels offense had simply scored the AL average of 117 runs -- because of their 109 runs allowed they would still have the 5th best run differential in the AL.

 

Also, it's worth noting that 11 of the Angels 27 games have come against teams in the top 5 in ERA.   So while the offense has it's warts at times, it's been clicking while facing quality pitching and despite playing in a pitchers park.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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Run differential is a meaningless stat.  It is misleading because blow outs skew the totals, and many teams play differently when the game is out of reach.  I always wondered why so many people are into run differentials.

 

Well, like just about every other statistic the larger the sample size the better the view.   People refer to it because historically it tends to correlate with actual W/L records and because it's easy to look at secondary stats to weed out the flukes.  It's not something you rely on exclusively

 

When it's all said and done, it's a lot less meaningless than raw ERA, pitcher wins, RBI, and a lot of stats that people hold dear.  

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Well, like just about every other statistic the larger the sample size the better the view.   People refer to it because historically it tends to correlate with actual W/L records and because it's easy to look at secondary stats to weed out the flukes.  It's not something you rely on exclusively

 

When it's all said and done, it's a lot less meaningless than raw ERA, pitcher wins, RBI, and a lot of stats that people hold dear.  

 

Also as a predictive stat it's far more accurate than previous win/loss record because those blow outs tell far more about a team's talent level than records in 1-2 run wins which often times boil down to a break here or there and chance. Close games involve more luck and winning them is thus less repeatable.

 

Finally in blow outs both teams play differently. Both teams put in worse players so the run differential can go either way from a teams true talent level. Sometimes the team up big will let the team down big back into it a little but other times the team up big will pour on even more against the losing team's worse relievers.

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Well, like just about every other statistic the larger the sample size the better the view.   People refer to it because historically it tends to correlate with actual W/L records and because it's easy to look at secondary stats to weed out the flukes.  It's not something you rely on exclusively

 

When it's all said and done, it's a lot less meaningless than raw ERA, pitcher wins, RBI, and a lot of stats that people hold dear.  

I don't see how ERA is meaning less.  RBI is dependent on batting with runners on base.  Pitchers wins....that is meaningless!

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I don't see how ERA is meaning less.  RBI is dependent on batting with runners on base.  Pitchers wins....that is meaningless!

 

I didn't say ERA was meaningless, I said raw ERA was, and even that comment is a bit hyperbolic to prove a point.. Raw ERA doesn't factor in parks effects, defenses, strand rates and the RPs that follow.   A pitcher with a 3.50 ERA in ATT Park, vs a 3.50 ERA in Coors are not equal and yet ERA would have you believe they are -- factor in the other stuff and the gap could widen.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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Better RISP hitting and better bullpen work would be huge from here on out.

the halos are actually OK with RISP.  not great.  about league average.  

 

this is where they blow:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2014&month=26&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

 

a good chunk of that is probably luck.

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I would agree with that

I didn't say ERA was meaningless, I said raw ERA was, and even that comment is a bit hyperbolic to prove a point.. Raw ERA doesn't factor in parks effects, defenses, strand rates and the RPs that follow. A pitcher with a 3.50 ERA in ATT Park, vs a 3.50 ERA in Coors are not equal and yet ERA would have you believe they are -- factor in the other stuff and the gap could widen.

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