Jeff Fletcher Predicts: Garza to Angels

[tdawg87]

3 years/36 million + a vesting option for a 4th year if he reaches 600 IP worth 15 million. +2 million every year he pitches 200 innings. +1 million every year he gets 170 strikeouts. +1 million every year he has a sub 4 ERA. +2 million every year he gets 15 wins.

[JAHV76]

A three year contract with a fourth year club option would be better.

[Ohtaniland]

We have to get Garza....

 

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 years/36 million + a vesting option for a 4th year if he reaches 600 IP worth 15 million. +2 million every year he pitches 200 innings. +1 million every year he gets 170 strikeouts. +1 million every year he has a sub 4 ERA. +2 million every year he gets 15 wins.

Performance bonuses can't be based on things like ERA, strikeouts, wins.

 

Only playing time things like games, games finished, starts, plate appearances, innings.

 

That's why for guys who may be the closer, the performance bonus is always "games finished" and not saves.

[seenoevil]

do it !!!

[seenoevil]

We have to get Garza....

 

still better than Blanton

[Chuck]

Performance bonuses can't be based on things like ERA, strikeouts, wins.

 

Only playing time things like games, games finished, starts, plate appearances, innings.

 

That's why for guys who may be the closer, the performance bonus is always "games finished" and not saves.

 

Yup. I suggested innings pitched earlier. If the only worry is that he's an injury concern, that's a perfect incentive for him to keep himself in good shape, especially his arm.

[Stradling]

Unfortunately it's also a perfect excuse to pitch through injury.

[Inside Pitch]

Performance bonuses can't be based on things like ERA, strikeouts, wins.

 

Only playing time things like games, games finished, starts, plate appearances, innings.

 

That's why for guys who may be the closer, the performance bonus is always "games finished" and not saves.

 

Yeah,  IP and games started...   I think they can do time on active roster too, or they used to be able to.

[Jeff Fletcher]

Yeah,  IP and games started...   I think they can do time on active roster too, or they used to be able to.

Yes, that too.

 

Mulder's incentives are based on starts and days on the active roster.

[Tavon Brown]

We have to get Garza....

 

I hear what you are saying.  Hell I was posting these same videos a couple of days ago.  But like someone posted on here today.  This team is built to win NOW.  Not a few years from now.  Either you are all in or not.  That is why it made sense to throw a bunch of money at Tanaka for a Hail Mary.  Honestly it is getting down to the 4th quarter and the Angels are down.  Now they can keep running this conservative approach or they can get into their hurry up offense and try to win the game before it is over.

[Tavon Brown]

Garza is just the best option at the moment.   But Jerry pretty much said today.  Don't hold your breath because they are happy taking this current team to spring training as is.

[NrM]

7 straight years with a sub 4.00 ERA. You cannot bring up W/L when talking about a player's value.

 

His stuff is lights out and a legit #2 when everything is working, plus he's still fairly young as pitchers go.

 

Having an ERA under 4.00 isn't very good anymore chuck. 

I'd be fine with 4/55, but I see him getting 5/60+

[nate]

"Lights out" and solid #3... does not compute.  Lights out means #1 pitcher.  Solid #3 means above league average.

[Chuck]

"Lights out" and solid #3... does not compute. Lights out means #1 pitcher. Solid #3 means above league average.

He has lights out FB velocity and a plus slider. His change is good enough to be a solid third offering. Garza is above league average for a SP in the AL.

[nate]

Yeah so he is a solid #3 pitcher.  I don't disagree.  The problem is for how many starts until his arm falls off?

[tdawg87]

"Lights out" and solid #3... does not compute.  Lights out means #1 pitcher.  Solid #3 means above league average.

 

He's definitely above league average. He has a career ERA+ of 108, not to mention a WAR of 1.2 or above every year since he became a full time starter.

 

I'm not saying the Angels should overpay for him. Quite the contrary. I just think he's better than a lot of people are saying he is. I wouldn't really be concerned about his potential performance, as he's been very consistent his entire career. What concerns me is his health. He hasn't pitched more than 200 innings since 2010 and has only pitched 260 innings the last 2 years. If he can provide a good physical then I'm fine with the Angels offering him 4 years.

[Chuck]

Having an ERA under 4.00 isn't very good anymore chuck.

I'd be fine with 4/55, but I see him getting 5/60+

Like hell it isn't. The point is to not give up runs per IP so you give your team a chance to score more runs than the opposing team to win! Not only that but he's been a good strikeout pitcher over the years as well.

[Stradling]

So, would you guys prefer to give him 4 years and $56 million or 5 years $60 million? Would you rather he be off the books sooner or cost less per year for an extra year?

[nate]

Three with a vesting option or maybe two vesting options.  190+ innings for the first three years kicks off the next two.
 

Even then he is a stupid signing.  This team has so many holes, taking a risk on a SP like that is not worth it.  These aren't leg issues, these are issues with his pitching arm.

Edited January 23, 2014 by nate

[Stradling]

I just don't see all the holes you see nate. Maybe some bullpen help, but we know bullpens are up and down regardless. With Garza, assuming he is healthy the starting pitching would be solid, good outfield good infield, decent catching duo. The only thing this team doesn't have in my opinion is young cost controlled replacements if offensive players go down. With Garza, Skaggs is our 6th starter, I like that. I also wouldn't be opposed to signing Garza and bring Williams back for long relief/6th or 7th starter.

[nate]

Think about all the "ifs" the Angels have in order to win say, 90 games.

 

If none of the starting pitchers get injured.

If Weaver can pitch up to his career norms

If Wilson can continue to pitch at his career norms

If Skaggs reaches his ceiling of a #3 pitcher

If none of the bullpen arms get injured

If Frieri can improve on his first two seasons

If Smith adjusts well to the new team

If Hamilton turns it around

If Pujols turns it around

If 90 year old Ibanez can DH full time

If Calhoun doesn't have a sophmore slump

 

If two of those ifs don't come true then this team wins less than 85 games.

[bloodbrother]

So, would you guys prefer to give him 4 years and $56 million or 5 years $60 million? Would you rather he be off the books sooner or cost less per year for an extra year?

 

No brainer for me...I prefer the deal with less years on it. I'd say that goes for anybody, but especially so for when it comes to pitchers, who just carry more risk of injury over position players

 

Add in that he's 30 years old and it's even more of a slam dunk. Less years means they would have a better chance of coming out on top value wise in the deal, since they would hopefully be getting his last remaining above average seasons. You keep him on for a bit too long and you risk paying them for their declining production. It would become a sunk cost by that point

Edited January 23, 2014 by bloodbrother

[Stradling]

I get that everyone needs to be healthy, that's the same for a lot of teams. I also understand that big money players need to perform. Also isn't it true of any team that starts a guy like Calhoun, that they need him to perform? Last year the Red Sox needed a bounce back year from Victorino and a solid year from Nava. Also last year we didn't have starters with the upside of Skaggs or Santiago. Everything you said is pretty much spot on, but that is going to be the case for the next eight years.

[KingJustinian]

Every team has ifs, that's why you play the game.

Garza is a solid #3 with some health concerns. The one person who said all other options besides Garz are garbage is being ridiculous and expects above average starters as #5's for a team with a top offense.