Can the Angels score runs in 2014?

[AngelsWin.com]

By Greg Bird, AngelsWin.com Staff Writer - 

2014 has begun and it is time to look forward to the freshness of the New Year. Last year’s failures are behind us, the excitement of tomorrow is ahead. It is a time of hope, but is it reasonable for Angel fans to have hope? We don’t yet know what the pitching staff will look like but the offense is set. Can the 2014 Angels be as productive as last year’s team? Does the loss of Trumbo’s power signal the end of their offensive productivity?

What do the numbers say? In 2013 the Angels scored 733 Runs, 7th best in the MLB. Even with the failure of new superstar Josh Hamilton and the injured campaign of future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols the team was a top tier offense. The power of Trumbo and the superb sophomore season of Mike Trout carried the team and plated a ton of runs.

T&T have been split up, the dynamite is gone. What will happen now? Let’s look back at last year and see just how much of the offense each player was really responsible for creating. We will not look at RBIs since those are a team stat and only possible because teammates were successful getting on base. Simply put, the hitter is not responsible for the number of guys on base when he comes to the plate. The hitter who got on base gets credit for being on base, not the hitter. 

RBIs are clearly a team stat. This article is not another in a long litany defending this point. Please go online to FanGraphs, Beyond the Box Score, or SABR and to learn more about this. I will simply assume this to be true and move on to another way to evaluate a player’s offensive contribution, wRC.

Weighted Runs Created (wRC) is a counting stat, unlike its counterpart Weighted Run Created Plus (wRC+). Other counting stats are Homeruns, Runs, RBIs, Hits, etc. wRC+ tells us how good a player was compared to other players in any given year and wRC tells us how many runs that player is responsible for in a given year. wRC+ has no penalty for playing time whereas wRC is earned each at bat (AB) and fewer ABs means fewer chances to create runs.

wRC assigns a run value to each action by a player on the field. Each action either adds (HR, SB, walk, etc.) or subtracts (strikeout, CS, fly out, etc.) from a player’s wRC. You may wonder how accurate this is. Last year the Angels had a team wRC of 741. The number one offense in the MLB, Boston, scored 853 Runs and had a wRC of 863. The AL West winning A’s scored 767 Runs with a wRC of 743. It isn’t a perfect match due to the random variation of sequencing. In the end the numbers are very close.

2013 Offense

The following chart will only account for the primary offensive players throughout 2013. It won’t add up to 741 since some of the runs were created by backups or fill in players. I am also including the plate appearance (PA) data because a player may create fewer runs but it may happen in fewer PAs which is inherently more valuable. I have also included each player’s wRC+ stat so we can see how their performance compares to the league.

If the Angels hope to replicate last year’s offense than they need to at least repeat these numbers. Can they do it again? Let us turn to two different methods of analyses, publicly available projection systems and a simple conservative fan’s assumption. My favorite player projection system, ZiPs, has not come out on the Angels so we will look at Steamer and Oliver. First let’s just look at an honest fan’s assessment.

2014 Fan’s Perspective

Let’s assume a few players approximate their performance last year. I could see the Iannetta and Conger tandem creating a similar number of runs next year. Conger could get more playing time and take a step forward, but let’s not assume that. It is reasonable that our middle infielders could have a very similar season next year as well. They didn’t seem to have career years in 2013. They seemed to be perfectly average years for each player. Let’s pencil them in for the same production. Finally, let us also assume Trout maintains performance similar to last year. I have no idea how long he can keep being that good but I see no reason except for injury that he should regress.

Now, let’s look at the superstar question marks. Let us just assume Hamilton only maintains his performance from last year. I hope he improves, but even if he doesn’t he can still create 72 runs next year. I don’t think Pujols will only get 443 PA next year. Let’s use Pujols’ 2012 wRC of 100 as template for what he could conservatively do while healthy in 2014. That isn’t a spectacular year for him just average. That improves the offense by 46 runs.

Finally, let us look at the replacements. Bourjos and Trumbo are gone and we all hope Shuck is now a 4th outfielder. That means I’ll cut Shuck’s wRC in half for reduced playing time and subtract out Peter and Mark’s wRC. That is a combined 125 runs. That leaves us with a 79 run deficit. Can the new players create enough runs to replace this?

What will Freese provide for the Halos? Last year Freese had a wRC of 60 in 462 PAs. If David is able to get 600 PAs and only perform like last year then he could create 70 runs. How about Calhoun? In 222 PA Calhoun created 31 runs. If we extrapolate that out to 600 PAs then he could create around 80 runs. Lastly, what about Ibanez? Last year he had a wRC of 66. If he doesn’t come close to that next year then we should see CJ Cron midseason. I am going assume Ibanez is worse than last year but is still passable creating only 50 runs.

If we add up those three guys wRC we get 200. We had a 79 run deficit from players lost. This means the offense nets a 121 additional runs in 2014. This would mean a team wRC of approximately 862. This means this offense could conservatively be as good as Boston’s last year, the best in Baseball.

2014 Projection’s View

The two projections available on New Year’s Day are Steamer and Oliver. Oliver assumes 600 PA for each player while Steamer tries to project PA as well as numbers. The following chart is their predictions for next year.

Steamer has the Angels top 10 players creating 691 runs. When we compare it to last year’s top 11 players who only created 649 runs we see a 42 run improvement over last year. It is safe to assume the bench could at least create 50 runs to get the team to 741 runs. Last year the bench got more at bats and it produced 92 runs. Steamer has the Angels’ offense likely improving over 2013’s.

Oliver is harder to look at because it assumes a full 600 PA for each player. If we total up Oliver’s wRC we get 735 but we know Conger and Iannetta are sharing time and Ibanez is only part of a DH platoon. If we add up Iannetta and Conger’s wRC and cut it in half we get a wRC of 67.5. If we assume about 450 PA for Ibanez we get a wRC of around 40 according to Oliver. This reduces the 735 team wRC to 655. This is about 6 runs better than last year. According to Oliver the Angel offensive top 10 will be at least be equal to last year’s team.

Conclusion

I can’t wait to see what ZiPs says and I have a feeling that the ZiPs projections might even show a better outcome than these two. The final outcome of next year’s Angels will ultimately come down to the pitching staff. We all know this already. The good news is that next year’s offense should be able to at least replicate last year. It is within reason that the Angels hitters could be the top offensive team in the league. The outcome of all of these offseason moves is yet to be seen but again the Front Office has followed a logical and reasonable process to make them. Let’s hope Jerry can improve the pitching staff now and get the team back into contention. 

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[mtangelsfan]

The offense will hinge on Pujols and Hamilton.  If they can improve from last season, the team will compete.

[HaloCory22]

The offense will be fine. Losing Trumbo won't hurt AT ALL. Hamilton and Pujols can't be any worse... Right?

[GregAlso]

God, I hope not. As long as Albert and Josh are not worse we will be good. We don't even need them to bounce back, just don't get worse. If that happens and no more freaky bad luck then we could easily be a top 10 offense.

[Jason]

I don't think Pujols and Hamilton will lay eggs again. Their performances were the main issue with the offense and expect them to have much better seasons.

[Angel Oracle]

As others are saying, Trumbo didn't add as much as some thought. 

ONLY if Hamilton and Pujols can even return to 2011 levels, will this team score enough runs.

[GregAlso]

As others are saying, Trumbo didn't add as much as some thought.

ONLY if Hamilton and Pujols can even return to 2011 levels, will this team score enough runs.

Why do they need to do that for the team to score enough runs? The numbers show that they just can't be worse than last year and we should be fine. Any improvement is bonus.

[Angel Oracle]

Can we count on Kendrick and Conger to at least duplicate their 2013 seasons though? 

They helped out, with Hamilton and Pujols being partial no shows.

 

The 2011 seasons for Hamilton and Pujols weren't by any stretch their best, but they were the last real good seasons for both until now.

[Docwaukee]

Nice job Greg.  Fun stuff.

 

I agree that Trout, Kendrick, Aybar, Conger/Ianetta will provide similar combined production.  I also agree that being a bit pessimistic with Josh is a good idea and assume him for similar production. 

 

To me, the big upgrades are:

 

Pujols over himself

Freese over Callapso etal at 3b

Calhoun over Shuck

 

Ibanez platoon will probably come close to producing what we got from Trumbo. 

 

The offensive bench depth is actually pretty weak now though.  It wasn't great before, but losing Calhoun and the defensive value of Bourjos could make a difference.  The bench got about two full players worth of PA last year.  If that is cut in half then I am not as worried. 

 

I think offensive production will also improve with a normalization of hitting with RISP. 

 

Overall, I think we end up somewhere closer to 2012 production as opposed to 2013.  I think 2013 production is worst case. 

[stormngt]

I swear you guys advanced statistics are confusing as hell. Sometimes you need to go with the obvious. If Pujols and Hamilton are the same we are screwed. If they improve we are fine offensively.

[Docwaukee]

Can we count on Kendrick and Conger to at least duplicate their 2013 seasons though? 

They helped out, with Hamilton and Pujols being partial no shows.

 

The 2011 seasons for Hamilton and Pujols weren't by any stretch their best, but they were the last real good seasons for both until now.

It's a bit of a big if, but If Ibanez and whatever platoon partner reproduce Trumbo's production then offensive improvement will occur if Pujols returns to 2012 form, Calhoun can improve over Shuck, and Freese can improve over Callaspo.  Hamilton can stay about the same and the offense will be better.  

 

So, to me, next years offense is dependent on Pujols, Calhoun, Freese, and Ibanez. 

[Blarg]

Nice article Greg. You have to think Pujols will come back with at least his 2012 numbers but I am thinking more on the lines of a 130-140 OPS+ type year if he is truly recovered from his knee and foot injury. Hamilton has to be better, or at least you would think a player wouldn't take that deep of a plunge without some medical problem. So those two back in gear with Trout you have a pretty awesome middle of the order.

 

The only question is lineup card at this point. Is Trout leadoff? I think the Angels would be wasting his productivity there even though a lot of his skills (OBP & Stolen bases) say he is perfect for the role, his last half also said he is a MOTO bat.

 

Ianetta, even with his struggles last season put up a .358 OBP. The problem is he is turtle slow for a leadoff batter. So do they take a chance early and put Calhoun there and bat Trout 2nd? I would take that any day over Aybar, in fact the idea of Aybar as leadoff makes me want to kick puppies.

 

So I guess the question is what sick lineup realizes the offense potential on paper to field?

Edited January 2, 2014 by Eric Notti

[Docwaukee]

I swear you guys advanced statistics are confusing as hell. Sometimes you need to go with the obvious. If Pujols and Hamilton are the same we are screwed. If they improve we are fine offensively.

we were 'fine' last year.  we need to prevent and/or score more runs.  While I agree that pujols health is key, additional production from hamilton is not.  It would be a bonus.  We have three other players in Calhoun, Freese, and Ibanez to offset or improve the offense as well. 

[Brent Maguire]

Nice article.

 

This team should have no problem finishing as a top 5 offense. If Pujols or Hamilton rebound to 2012 levels, this team should score a ton of runs. If both rebound to 2012 levels, this will be the best offense in baseball. It's not likely to see both rebound that much but Pujols should post a 130 wRC+ without any problem. 

 

Basically, it would take fluky bad years from multiple players for this offense to not be one of the top offenses in baseball. 

[Dave Saltzer]

Really good analysis Greg. Right now, on paper, this team is better both offensively and pitching wise. Subtracting all the starts from Blanton and Hanson and replacing them with Santiago and Skaggs makes this team substantially better. Throw in a Tanaka and a Garza, and we have done a major improvement without having to do a total overhaul. I'm getting excited for 2014!

[DW711]

I thought Streamer undervalued a lot of players.

 

If you click one tab over to Oliver...that seems much more like what will happen for 2014.

[DW711]

Apparently, Streamer likes Blanton to be the best starter on the Angels roster.

 

Now there's credibility for ya.

[Halos of Anaheim]

Nice article Greg. You have to think Pujols will come back with at least his 2012 numbers but I am thinking more on the lines of a 130-140 OPS+ type year if he is truly recovered from his knee and foot injury. Hamilton has to be better, or at least you would think a player wouldn't take that deep of a plunge without some medical problem. So those two back in gear with Trout you have a pretty awesome middle of the order.

 

The only question is lineup card at this point. Is Trout leadoff? I think the Angels would be wasting his productivity there even though a lot of his skills (OBP & Stolen bases) say he is perfect for the role, his last half also said he is a MOTO bat.

 

Ianetta, even with his struggles last season put up a .358 OBP. The problem is he is turtle slow for a leadoff batter. So do they take a chance early and put Calhoun there and bat Trout 2nd? I would take that any day over Aybar, in fact the idea of Aybar as leadoff makes me want to kick puppies.

 

So I guess the question is what sick lineup realizes the offense potential on paper to field?

Calhoun

Trout

Pujols

Hamilton

Freese

Kendrick

Ibanez/Conger

Iannetta/Conger

Aybar

 

Nice write up OP, as stated here already I think we need to slow our horses on the expectations for Pujols and Hamilton. If just one of them goes back to their recent good days (Pujols from May 2012 to Sept 2012, Hamilton from 2011-Early 2012) we will be contenders. I'm expecting Pujols to go back to 2012 form, and Hamilton playing slightly better than last year, but again; if he stays the same we should still be a top 5 offense.