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Choose one player...


UCLAngel

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I'd go pitching like most and like most I would also go Kershaw. Fernandez and Felix seem like good choices as well. If I had to go position player though then it would be Longoria, my current favorite player not on our team and who never will be. Harper, Puig, Votto and Posey seem like good choices too.

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Kershaw over next five years (age 26-30):

2014: ~$18M (last arb)

2015: ~$26M+

2016: ~$26M+

2017: ~$26M+

2018: ~$26M+

 

Verlander's at $25.7M per year, so I'm going to assume Kershaw gets at least $26M - possibly more. The $18M is the estimate from Baseball Reference.

 

Fernandez over next five years (age 21-25):

2014: ~$500K (pre-arb)

2015: ~$1M (pre-arb)

2016: ~$8 (arb 1)

2017: ~$12M (arb 2)

2018: ~$18M (arb 3)

 

Those numbers are estimates based roughly on looking at Kershaw's salaries.

 

So for those picking Kershaw, here's the question: Would you rather have Kershaw for the next five years (and more) for $122M, or $24.4M per year, or Fernandez for ~$40M or $8M per year?

 

To me the choice is obvious: you go for Fernandez. There are two rejoinders I can think of:

 

1) There's no guarantee that Fernandez will continue to be as good as he was in 2013. Even if his ERA "balloons" from 2.19 closer to his 2.73 FIP, he's still going to be very, very good. But this is a legitimate concern...but here's the thing: Is Kershaw worth three times the money Fernandez will be getting? I don't think so.

 

2) "But its not my money!" How has this worked out, considering the hamstringing contracts of Wells, Pujols, and Hamilton? I know, I know, we got Pujols and then Hamilton. But this year all three contracts are inhibiting the Angels' flexibility on the free agent market. "Its not my money" is a red herring.

 

If the OP hadn't included contracts I'd say Kershaw and not think twice about it. If he's not the best pitcher in baseball than he's right there with Justin Verlander, plus he's five years younger than Verlander. But the OP mentioned contracts, so in my mind, Fernandez is the better choice. Before his injury I would have said Matt Harvey as well. Chris Sale, Yu Darvish, and Stephen Strasburg would all be tempting, but I'd probably take Kershaw before them.

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By virtue of this thread, this board is now being investigated for tampering...

 

 

 

Oh and I'll follow Agalloch and Deek and take Evan Longoria.  My second choice would be Yadier Molina for positions players.

 

Pithcing:  I'll take Kershaw and then Jose Fernandez

Edited by True Grich
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