Nelson Cruz v. Mark Trumbo

[wopphil]

I am having a hard time grasping that Trumbo has such minimal trade value.  If reports are correct that Nelson Cruz could obtain as much as $60-80 million over 4 years, then there is obviously significant demand for his services.  But compare the two over the last three years:

 

Cruz: .263/.319/.489/.808, with 80 homeruns, 253 RBI, and an OPS+ of 112

 

Trumbo: .251/.300/.473/.773, with 95 homeruns, 282 RBI, and an OPS+ of 115. 

 

Offensively, it is a wash.  By some measurements, Trumbo is the better hitter.  Cruz's .019 OBP advantage is, IMO, insignificant. 

 

I get that Cruz is the better defender, but he is also six years older, a known PED user, and will command a ton more money than Trumbo (who is probably going to make about $20 mil through the arbitration process). 

 

So I am scratching my head as to why Cruz will likely command a huge deal, while Trumbo apparently can't net us a good AAA pitching prospect. 

[Brent Maguire]

Cruz will get the worst contract this offseason.

 

I keep seeing the Mariners linked to him, which would be pretty hilarious. Anything over 4/30 is way too much for him at this point but some team will give him twice as much money. A guy whose averaged 1.3 WAR the past 3 years isn't worth very much.

[Chuck]

I am having a hard time grasping that Trumbo has such minimal trade value.  If reports are correct that Nelson Cruz could obtain as much as $60-80 million over 4 years, then there is obviously significant demand for his services.  But compare the two over the last three years:

 

Cruz: .263/.319/.489/.808, with 80 homeruns, 253 RBI, and an OPS+ of 112

 

Trumbo: .251/.300/.473/.773, with 95 homeruns, 282 RBI, and an OPS+ of 115. 

 

Offensively, it is a wash.  By some measurements, Trumbo is the better hitter.  Cruz's .019 OBP advantage is, IMO, insignificant. 

 

I get that Cruz is the better defender, but he is also six years older, a known PED user, and will command a ton more money than Trumbo (who is probably going to make about $20 mil through the arbitration process). 

 

So I am scratching my head as to why Cruz will likely command a huge deal, while Trumbo apparently can't net us a good AAA pitching prospect. 

 

Good post, Phil.

 

That and Cruz is incredibly injury prone. Trumbo can play two positions as well and like Cruz, has a strong arm from the outfield.

[monkeywithahalo]

I don't think that Trumbo has "such minimal trade value." I think the issue is that he doesn't have tremendous trade value. From what I can gather, the Angels are seeking an elite pitching prospect in return for Trumbo. Early rumors were that they asked the Pirates for Gerrit Cole for Trumbo and Cole was a top 10 pitching prospect in baseball at the time, a future ace. Trumbo has too many flaws to net that kind of return.

 

The Angels probably can get a solid AAA pitching prospect for Trumbo, but I don't think that is worth it to them. They aren't going to give him up so that they can get a guy with a #3 or #4 starter ceiling. That's how I read it, anyway.

[Chuck]

I don't think anyone thinks we're getting a Gerrit Cole type for Trumbo, but a Doug Fister, Lancy Lynn or Marco Estrada type should be doable.

 

The other thing people seem to forget is matching up with other teams and who is available via FA.

 

Point and case, it would seem like we could potentially get a Chacin and maybe a Bettis or Butler for Trumbo, but if you're Colorado wouldn't it behoove you to just sign Morneau and hold onto your young pitching?

 

Same applies for all teams.

[Inside Pitch]

I am having a hard time grasping that Trumbo has such minimal trade value.  If reports are correct that Nelson Cruz could obtain as much as $60-80 million over 4 years, then there is obviously significant demand for his services.  But compare the two over the last three years:

 

 

AL Averages

RF - .262/.322/.418 - .740

1B - .257/.331/.446 -  .777

 

Career

NC - .268/.327/.495 - .822  (+82)

MT - .250/.299/.469 - 768 

 

One of them is viewed as a well above average offensive player for his position.  The other is a below average offensive player for his position.   Even after you account for park effects -- a RF that hits like a 1B will likely be seen as more valuable in the current climate.  I think for many teams it's also a case of what have you done for me lately.  Trumbo had an off year.

 

30 points of OBP is a lot.  

Edited December 4, 2013 by Inside Pitch

[gotbeer]

With Cruz, it will only cost money.

 

With Trumbo, it will eventually cost the money as he goes through the arbitration process, and you will lose a future MLB starting pitcher that will make minimal money the first three years.  With how void the pitching market is, and what pitchers are making, most teams, and especially small and mid market teams who mainly have the best pitching prospects, will hold onto their pitchers.  

[HaloFan85]

I am having a hard time grasping that Trumbo has such minimal trade value.  If reports are correct that Nelson Cruz could obtain as much as $60-80 million over 4 years, then there is obviously significant demand for his services.  But compare the two over the last three years:

 

Cruz: .263/.319/.489/.808, with 80 homeruns, 253 RBI, and an OPS+ of 112

 

Trumbo: .251/.300/.473/.773, with 95 homeruns, 282 RBI, and an OPS+ of 115. 

 

Offensively, it is a wash.  By some measurements, Trumbo is the better hitter.  Cruz's .019 OBP advantage is, IMO, insignificant. 

 

I get that Cruz is the better defender, but he is also six years older, a known PED user, and will command a ton more money than Trumbo (who is probably going to make about $20 mil through the arbitration process). 

 

So I am scratching my head as to why Cruz will likely command a huge deal, while Trumbo apparently can't net us a good AAA pitching prospect. 

And 50 of those 80 home runs were at home.  That's 63% of his power coming from Texas.

.886 OPS at home

.731 OPS away

 

Edit: That's 63% not 70% like I first thought.

Edited December 4, 2013 by HaloFan85

[Angel Oracle]

Trumbo has also stayed healthy, unlike Mr. Gulf Oil. 

 

If Trumbo could just avoid those Timmy Lupus like 1-2 month slumps, he would be very important to the future of this team.

[ten ocho recon scout]

I think its more the fact what we need is the most valuable commodity in baseball. Young, front end cost controlled putching. Everyone wants it, and the teams that have it probably know that hanging on to it is like a mutual fund.

A few years ago, when baseball was more geared toward football scores, trumbos value is probably higher. And to be fair, with offense down, he's still probably someone a lot of teams would like to have. The problem is, the match of finding someone who needs his power (flaws included) who also have arms in surplus is probably slim.

I'd be willing to bet if he was a FA, the interest in him would be a lot higher.

[CAngels11]

I am having a hard time grasping that Trumbo has such minimal trade value.  If reports are correct that Nelson Cruz could obtain as much as $60-80 million over 4 years, then there is obviously significant demand for his services.  But compare the two over the last three years:

 

Cruz: .263/.319/.489/.808, with 80 homeruns, 253 RBI, and an OPS+ of 112

 

Trumbo: .251/.300/.473/.773, with 95 homeruns, 282 RBI, and an OPS+ of 115. 

 

Offensively, it is a wash.  By some measurements, Trumbo is the better hitter.  Cruz's .019 OBP advantage is, IMO, insignificant. 

 

I get that Cruz is the better defender, but he is also six years older, a known PED user, and will command a ton more money than Trumbo (who is probably going to make about $20 mil through the arbitration process). 

 

So I am scratching my head as to why Cruz will likely command a huge deal, while Trumbo apparently can't net us a good AAA pitching prospect. 

Great point. And this is Trumbo's stat line in a pitchers ball park compared to Cruz's in Hitters heaven......

[HaloFan85]

Only 9 players have had at least 282 RBI and 216 runs scored over the last 3 seasons.  Regardless of his low OBP, he's been one of the top run producers over the last 3 years.

 

Like what's been said in other threads, I think the book is out on our front office and everyone just tries to lowball the Angels.  Serious question, when was the last time the Angels got the better end of a trade that wasn't just a pure salary dump by the other team?

[notherhalo]

If Trumbo has a killer first half and we are 10GB, can that get us a better trade than now?

 

edit: lets not forget an all star season where in the first half "Mr .370" was even better than Mike Trout

Edited December 5, 2013 by notherhalo

[arch stanton]

Cruz is destined to be the sequel to El Caballo.

[Angels]

Where are you getting the better defender part? According to UZR, Cruz been a horrible defender for the last 3 years. Cruz isn't worth much. I wouldn't even give him 3/30. Any gm who spends big money on Nelson Cruz is an idiot.

As far as Trumbo is concerned, I can see why no team is lining up to give quality starting pitching for a guy with a career OBP under .300. He simply isn't worth that much. We can get pitching for him, but probably not the kind the Angels need or want.