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Hot Stove Trade of the Day #2: Kendrick to the Orioles


Hubs

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The Orioles may not bring back oft-injured Brian Roberts, maybe they'd be interested in Kendrick over a free agent option?

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb/rumors/post?id=9747

 

For those who want Dylan Bundy in return, not likely to happen.

 

But looking at their prospects, #6 Prospect Mike Wright fits the Angels needs. Good year in AA, and is 23 so he should be ready for major league action soon. I also like their #2 prospect, Eduardo Rodriguez, but I'd think they'd be less inclined to deal him.

 

On their major league side, Chris Tillman is obviously appealing, as is former Angels farmhand Miguel Gonzalez.

 

I'd take Gonzalez and Wright for Kendrick. Would the Orioles? I don't know. Perhaps the Angels would have to take back salary like Tommy Hunter, though that would mean a prospect moving from the Angels to the Orioles, likely someone good like Mike Morin or CJ Cron.

 

The Orioles have almost zero bad contracts, but do have a ton in arbitration, something over $40 Million. Still with only $45 M committed, that should be room to take on Kendrick and still keep everyone.

 

Let's say Gonzalez and Wright for Kendrick and Luis Jimenez who could help to fill the 3B vacancy the Orioles will have with Machado out with an injury.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The Kendrick-Golzalez one is something I posted weeks ago, though I think it's the Angels who will be forced to kick in a prospect. 

 

You're underselling Kendrick. He's better than most of the 2B in baseball offensively and his defense is underrated by the stats guys.

 

Cano, Pedroia, Kinsler, Kipnis, Kendrick are the best five 2B in the AL. Zobrist doesn't count because he doesn't play 2B exclusively.

 

I'd also say those five are the best 2B IN BASEBALL, now that Carpenter is moving to 3rd.

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And you're failing to properly read the market for pitching.  Peter Bourjos doesn't get you a SP, let alone a good young one like the Angels want.  Mark Trumbo might get you a #4/5 SP.  

 

Miguel Gonzalez is a #3/4 SP.  Kendrick alone would be enough for him on a pure talent level.  HOWEVER, Kendrick is only under contract for 2 more years and is making over 18 million across those two years.  This means Baltimore not only loses a mid-rotation pitcher, they also add 9 million in projected salary.  Any smart GM would say "NO!" emphatically. 

 

The market deems that pitching and prospects are currency and if you're looking for them, the asking price can be whatever the other team wants.  It doesn't matter if it's fair value, the Angels will be FORCED to pay it because they literally have no other alternative. 

 

The O's will ask for a prospect on top of Kendrick and the Angels will meet it. 

 

This isn't fantasy baseball or MLB The Show.  This is real life and in real life, the market dictates the price, fair or not. 

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Scotty, 

 

One quick thing. I take offense to your fantasy baseball comment. I'm not a GM and neither are you. You're not anymore of a baseball expert than I am, just because you have a blog. I usually agree with your posts, but on this I don't. And you don't need to call me out as if I'm a fantasy baseball geek. I've been posting on this forum for over 10 years. I'm a senior writer here, though it has been a while since I've written anything in blog form.

 

Miguel Gonzalez is a controllable starting pitcher, not young at age 29. He has at least one more year of club control for 2014. After that he's going to get expensive during arbitration. His maximum return in trade is right now.

 

I'm not proposing the Angels get Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado for Kendrick. I'm looking for a pitcher that they can pay the league minimum to and he fits the bill.

 

The problem is, he's not enough, because of his age. Wright is a controllable starter and made a huge jump from 2012 to 2013 partly because the Orioles graduated a few guys, but partly because of a good season. If they got a lower tier prospect starter, that'd be fine too.

 

I understand the prospect in regards to the Angels sending one back, but they are sending a Major League Experienced second baseman who is still in his prime. He's not being paid star money but $9 Million isn't a little bit.

 

Other 2nd Baseman who have been traded in recent memory on the caliber of Kendrick have all brought decent return. 

 

The Orioles Payrolls in recent years have been between 67 and 93 million. They are projected to be at around $85-90 million, and it's possible they do ask for a prospect in return and also including a guy like Tommy Hunter or Darren O'Day so that they can fit Kendrick into their payroll.

 

It might be CJ Cron, but other than Cron, the Angels do not have any major league quality players who will be ready in 2014 that also fit the Orioles needs. They need a 2nd baseman and they need a DH. I'd be hesitant to give up Cron and Kendrick.

 

I'm not underestimating the market for pitching, you're underestimating the market for offense. You have to give to get, and in trading a reliable productive second baseman, you'd expect a decent return. He doesn't have the upside of some of the prospects, but you know what you are going to get. An everyday second baseman who can give you between 3.1 and 4.5 WAR over the last five years. Gonzalez was a 3.0 WAR pitcher in 2012, but regressed to a 2.0 WAR pitcher in 2013. He's not an ace. He's a 3/4. 

 

And that is a smart trade for both sides.

 

Of course, the Orioles could decide to blow their budget and sign Robinson Cano away from the Yankees. They're my dark horse team for him. 

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