FIXING THE ANGELS IN A FEW EASY STEPS

[AngelsWin.com]

By Jonathan Northrop, AngelsWin.com Columnist - 

OK, “easy” is an exaggeration and the type of thing a naïve armchair GM would say, but what I really mean is do-able. It is my belief that the team isn’t that far from being a contending 90+ win team in 2014, and for a few years to come.

Given the utter disappointment that is 2013, it is easy to think that the team needs a complete rebuild. But for two reasons I think a “re-tool” is all that is required for the Angels to contend for the next few years while the farm is re-stocked.

1) The Angels have a lot of money tied up into four players, two of whom are signed through 2016 (Wilson and Weaver), one through 2017 (Hamilton), and one for the rest of eternity (Pujols). They cannot justify a complete franchise re-build while all four are present; at the least, they need to keep trying to contend for the next few years, although I suppose both Wilson and Weaver could be traded next year if the team tanks again.

2) The team is actually pretty good, or could be good with just a few changes, which is the focus of this piece.

Before going to the changes, let’s look at the offense. Through August 30 the Angels have scored 4.46 runs per game, which is 7th in the American League and slightly above the AL average of 4.36. Furthermore, that 4.46 is closer to 3rd (Baltimore at 4.76) than it is to 10th (Kansas City at 4.05). Now while that doesn’t scream “powerhouse” there are two reasons to think it will improve next year: Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. Even if they only have modest rebounds, the team should score more runs. We might also see small improvements in other areas, so that next year the team should be in the upper third of AL team offenses.

Dipoto still has to figure out what to do at third base. One would think that if the team was considering Grant Green at the hot corner he’d be getting innings now. Its hard to imagine the job being handed to Chris Nelson or Luis Jimenez, but the Angels might figure that if Hamilton and Pujols improve, the offense might be able to carry the slick-fielding but weak bat of Jimenez, at least until he is able to hold his own with the bat. But there are workable parts here – the Angels have Nelson, Jimenez, Field, and Green as options.

Third base is more of a queston mark long-term than it was before the year began. Top prospect Kaleb Cowart was (and still is) considered the future, but with his terrible performance in AA they question is no longer “Who holds down third base until Kaleb is ready?” but “When will Kaleb actually be ready and should we start having a contingency plan?” But even the most optimistic scenario saw Cowart taking over in 2015, so he doesn’t figure into 2014 so much.

Defense has also been a problem this year, with the Angels tied for second in the AL with 92 errors – well above the AL average of 72. While errors aren’t everything, they do matter. Anyone who has watched a few games this year has seen a team defense that looks, at best, mediocre, but occasionally brings back memories of the Bad News Bears.

A healthy year from Peter Bourjos – or even Kole Calhoun, if Bourjos is traded – will greatly improve the outfield defense. Shuck has only committed two errors, but he is not a good defender and often looks clueless out there. Third base is a question mark, but Jimenez will greatly improve the defense there if he’s given a shot. One concern is if Howie Kendrick is traded for pitching help (more on that in a moment), Green is first in line and preliminary findings have not been positive about his second base defense.

I’m of the opinion that defense—even more than hitting and pitching—is reliant upon the overall team psychology, and that the team defense can best be improved by both drilling fundamentals in spring training and doing well in other facets of the game. The team could be an average defensive team, if they’re in a healthy mind-space and doing well in other areas, particularly pitching. 

Which brings us to the big area of concern: the pitching staff. First, let’s look at some numbers. The Angels are 12th in the AL (of 15 teams) in both ERA (4.35) and runs allowed per game (4.66). The AL average has been 4.01 and 4.31 respectively, so they’re pretty far off.

Despite what one might think, the Angels have actually been above average in terms of save pecentage – saving 70% of chances, which is just a hair above the AL average of 69%. Their 14 blown saves are 4th fewest in the AL. That said, the bullpen has not been as good about keeping inherited runners from scoring – their 32% is below the AL average of 30%.

Overall the bullpen has been worse relative to league average ; Angels starters have a 4.37 ERA relative to 4.19 AL average, while Angels relievers have a 4.32 ERA relative to the 3.67 AL average.

Both the starting rotation and bullpen need radical improvement. Let’s look at both in turn.

The rotation is relatively straight forward in that the team already has 3-4 solid to strong building blocks. Weaver and Wilson, while hardly Johnson and Schilling, give the Angels two legitimate “sub-aces” – pitchers that, while not Cy Young contenders, championship teams are happy to have in their first three slots. After those two, the questions begin. Jason Vargas has been good when healthy, and seems to be either a passable #3 starter or a very good #4. Garret Richards seems to be finally coming into his own. His second half ERA, which includes 7 starts, is 3.15 compared to 4.87 in the first half. He looks to be, at the least, a solid #4-5 pitcher, and he may actually be on the cusp of fulfilling his potential as a legitimate #3 starter.

After that the starting pitching has been disastrous. Tommy Hanson, Joe Blanton, and Jerome Williams have all been terrible and have been responsible for 52 of the team’s 133 starts, or almost 40%. In those 52 starts they have collectively pitched 287.1 innings of 5.54 ERA ball. Even with a great offense and strong bullpen, no team can overcome such a large percentage of starts being so terrible.

With Weaver, Wilson, and Richards in fold for rotation spots next year, the Angels need to acquire two starting pitchers – one of whom could be Jason Vargas. If they get Vargas, though, I would think the other starter would need to be better, either a top pitching prospect who is ready to contribute, or an established #2-3 type. Easier said than done, of course, but its rather clear and straightfoward.

Where more work is required is the bullpen. Looking at the relievers there’s no single pitcher who shouts “we must keep this guy no matter what, he’s a building block for next year and beyond.” The best of the group – Frieri, De La Rosa, and Kohn – all have problems, and none even looks like a quality set-up man, more of “bullpen filler.” Roth and Maronde don’t look ready, and the jury is out on Cory Rasmus.  We can hope that Sean Burnett comes back healthy and is for the Angels next year what Scott Downs was the last few.

The cheap route to “fixing” the bullpen would be to throw all of the current parts, plus Jeremy Berg and Jerome Williams, who has actually done very well as a reliever, and see how they shake out in spring training. But that doesn’t encourage a lot of confidence. The bullpen needs at least two strong relievers: a real closer and a strong set-up man. 

So let’s get back to improving the team in a few easy steps:

1. Hope that Hamilton and Pujols improve

2. Re-sign Jason Vargas

3. Sign or trade for a #2-3 starter

4. Re-make the bullpen, acquiring at least two very good relievers

A fifth, but optional step, would be to trade for or sign a third baseman. Given his poor year, Chase Headley might have slipped into the affordable range.

So what are the options? MLBTradeRumors.com has a group of nifty “Free Agent Leaderboards”, using Fangraphs.com. There are too many to name, but you can view them here.

The tricky part with regards to the rotation is not as much finding a decent mid-rotation starter (in addition to Vargas), but having depth. If the Angels sign Tim Lincecum or Matt Garza or, better yet, James Shields, and if they re-up Jason Vargas, then their Opening Day rotation looks pretty good. But what about injury? Blanton is untradeable with his contract so might be kept around as the mop-up man, and Williams has done well in relief. I suppose the Angels could try to re-build Tommy Hanson in the minors, although even despite a crappy 2013 he’ll likely receive two or three million in arbitration, which makes him an expensive “project.” 

Here’s the problem: if one of the starters goes down, do we really want to see one of the Three Amigos starting a game again? The Angels have no starting pitching prospects that are anywhere close to being major league ready, at least as not more than a spot starter. I suppose if all goes well, Mark Sappington could be ready late in the year, but there’s going to be a learning curve.

As far as the bullpen goes, if one of Maronde or Roth pans out, they can complement Burnett as a lefty in the bullpen and the Angels can focus on acquiring right-handed relievers, which are more plentiful. Jesse Crain is particularly appealing, and there are a few others worth checking out. The Angels also have a few prospects that might make it to the majors in 2014, including RJ Alvarez and Mike Morin (Cam Bedrosian is at least a year away).

So there are some pieces. Not a lot, but they’re there. What remains to be seen is if Jerry Dipoto can do this offseason what he couldn’t do last: make the right choices with the limited moves he’s got. The Angels need at least four pitchers, two starters and two relievers. Make your choices count, Jerry.

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[Chuck]

Well detailed article with practical solutions, AJ. 

 

Great read. I was stoked to see and read both your article and Doc's from my inbox this morning. 

[Docwaukee]

Ha!  Nice job AJ - we both came to the same conclusions. 

 

I was thinking we could bring in Chavez or Stephen Drew to platoon at 3b vs. Rhers.  And maybe consider Lucho, Nelson, Field, or Romine vs. Lefties. 

[Angelsjunky]

I'd still like to see Green get some games at third base, but that doesn't seem in the cards. Chavez is a nice player to have on your bench and in platoon. I'd also like to see Lucho given as many starts as possible over the remainder of the season. If he can get reasonably comfortable at the plate, he'll be helpful and shore up the defense.

[Bruce Nye]

Good job, AJ.

[Docwaukee]

I'd still like to see Green get some games at third base, but that doesn't seem in the cards. Chavez is a nice player to have on your bench and in platoon. I'd also like to see Lucho given as many starts as possible over the remainder of the season. If he can get reasonably comfortable at the plate, he'll be helpful and shore up the defense.

Yeah, if you were going to go young on the left side, you could sacrifice offense for defense and put lucho and romine over there.  See what Starter and Relief help you can get for Aybar and get a couple of pen arms.  

[Angelsjunky]

Lucho AND Romine might be too weak of a bottom of the lineup, but one could be accommodated. I'd rather see Kendrick than Aybar traded because there's more to choose from at 2B--Green, Lindsey, Yarbrough--than at SS--Romine, Stamets, Rondon, at least right now.

 

With Lucho I think you hope for .270/.700-.750 OPS, but you expect .250/.650-.700. If can manage an OPS around .700 then he has to be seriously considered for the starting job.

 

I don't see Romine as anyone close to a starter. I'd honestly rather consider Field, who could have a bit of pop and I'd like to see as the main infield UT guy next year. Scioscia should be giving him more at-bats.

Edited August 31, 2013 by Angelsjunky

[jshep]

3B is the biggest place of concern beyond the pitching for 2014 for me.

 

The FA market is pretty damn weak and no one internal that could realistically play there in 2014 impresses me at all, with the possible exception of Green maybe being able to handle the position. Maybe you can try to buy low on a Headley or a Freese, I guess.

[Docwaukee]

Lucho AND Romine might be too weak of a bottom of the lineup, but one could be accommodated. I'd rather see Kendrick than Aybar traded because there's more to choose from at 2B--Green, Lindsey, Yarbrough--than at SS--Romine, Stamets, Rondon, at least right now.

 

With Lucho I think you hope for .270/.700-.750 OPS, but you expect .250/.650-.700. If can manage an OPS around .700 then he has to be seriously considered for the starting job.

 

I don't see Romine as anyone close to a starter. I'd honestly rather consider Field, who could have a bit of pop and I'd like to see as the main infield UT guy next year. Scioscia should be giving him more at-bats.

agree.  that would weaken the lineup big time but I think you have to keep an open mind going into the offseason.  Aybar might give a substantially higher return than anyone else.  Stephen Drew could be a stop gap for SS as well.  Might be a nice player to pick up early in the offseason for either SS or 3b platoon depending on what direction they go in at either position.

[Docwaukee]

3B is the biggest place of concern beyond the pitching for 2014 for me.

 

The FA market is pretty damn weak and no one internal that could realistically play there in 2014 impresses me at all, with the possible exception of Green maybe being able to handle the position. Maybe you can try to buy low on a Headley or a Freese, I guess.

If you can get to mid 2014 and be a winning team, it might be something to upgrade at the deadline.  I would stop gap it for now and dedicate as much of the teams resources to pitching. 

[tomsred]

An interesting read, full of good practical solutions - well written!

[jshep]

If you can get to mid 2014 and be a winning team, it might be something to upgrade at the deadline.  I would stop gap it for now and dedicate as much of the teams resources to pitching. 

 

That's a possibility as well I suppose, if you can be confident that you've patched up the other holes sufficiently by going that route. 

 

Because the upside on both Romine and Field seems to be glove first utility infielder, Chris Nelson just isn't a good major leaguer, and Luis Jimenez is awfully underwhelming to me.

 

You can probably live with underwhelming production from 3B if you've successfully patched the other holes, but I think you're in trouble if you've got AAAA/bench guys manning 3rd and your pitching or whatever starts springing leaks.

Edited August 31, 2013 by jshep

[Docwaukee]

That's a possibility as well I suppose, if you can be confident that you've patched up the other holes sufficiently by going that route. 

 

Because the upside on both Romine and Field seems to be glove first utility infielder, Chris Nelson just isn't a good major leaguer, and Luis Jimenez is awfully underwhelming to me.

 

You can probably live with underwhelming production from 3B if you've successfully patched the other holes, but I think you're in trouble if you've got AAAA/bench guys manning 3rd and your pitching or whatever starts springing leaks.

yeah pretty much.  that's why I like the idea of bringing in a Drew or Chavez on a 1yr deal.  Drew in particular gives you some flexibility. 

 

The only reason I mention Romine is because of his defense.  If he can be a Brendan Ryan type player with a little better offense, then he actually has value - all provided by defense, but Ryan's defense justifies his presence in the lineup.  Agree that it's probably a stretch to assume that level of defense though. 

[wopphil]

AJ, I rarely read the entire articles posted on here, but this one was great. Good work.

[70runner]

 

 

 

So let’s get back to improving the team in a few easy steps:

1. Hope that Hamilton and Pujols improve

2. Re-sign Jason Vargas

3. Sign or trade for a #2-3 starter

4. Re-make the bullpen, acquiring at least two very good relievers

 

 

Good read, thx for the effort.

 

In another thread I labeled #1 "Wishing and Hoping" as fools gold.  These guys will both be another year older, more significant in the mid30s (or in Pujols case perhaps closer to 40).  Pujols was already fat, slow, and old when they signed him to that silly contract, tho it's certain his bad feet didn't help.  Hamilton's best years are well behind him as well.  The recent uptick in his stats notable but could they get any worse?  Against LHP he's nearly an automatic out.  Wishing & Hoping these 2 improve is not much of a foundation for a turnaround.  The offense, however, may be OK with/without them thx to Trout and some of the kids.

 

3B has been an eyesore for the Angels since the Glaus days.  Nelson and Green look like Callaspo reincarnated and really do nothing to solidify a normally key power position.

 

Catching, another one of those eyesores, may brighten a bit when Scioscia gives up on Iannetta, puts Conger in there every day.  Conger would appear to have the potential to be an average hitter (a BIG PLUS for the Angels at catcher) with decent catching skills.

 

Pitching, of course, is the key, as it is with most any MLB team.  The BP has some good arms, so the potential is there, yet as you say some augmentation is probably needed.  SP: must find at least one even if it takes trading away some youth.

 

Oh, and must secure Trout long term asap.  Build the team around him, not the Albert Pujols. 

[Angelsjunky]

70runner, its not a matter of Hamilton and Pujols returning to their peak form, but being significantly better than this year. Plenty of great hitters remain pretty good into their mid-30s, so if Albert is healthy I see no reason why we can't expect at least .280/.850. As for Hamilton, he's just been so bad this year that it wouldn't take a great year next year for him to bring great improvement to the offense. Even just .270/.800 will be huge.

 

Also, I think Conger can become an above average hitter with more playing time and experience.

[Docwaukee]

70runner, its not a matter of Hamilton and Pujols returning to their peak form, but being significantly better than this year. Plenty of great hitters remain pretty good into their mid-30s, so if Albert is healthy I see no reason why we can't expect at least .280/.850. As for Hamilton, he's just been so bad this year that it wouldn't take a great year next year for him to bring great improvement to the offense. Even just .270/.800 will be huge.

 

Also, I think Conger can become an above average hitter with more playing time and experience.

 

It could be that Pujols and Hamilton never recover, but we are locked into them regardless so we might as well hope for the best.  Whether the odds are for or against that is largely irrelevant.  Granted, going forward they shouldn't rely on it.

 

Pujols will be fine I think for 2-3 more years.  He was very good for all but a month of his first year and the injury is what slowed him down this year.  We had the best offense in the league with him at .280/.850. That would be fine.

 

It's gonna be tough for Josh to replicate the 5 WAR that Torii put up in 2012, but a solid .280/.850ops would be great. 

 

The halos have some options on offense with Calhoun, Bourjos, Trumbo, and even Shuck.   One of those should get us a solid pitcher.  

[kevinb]

There is no easy fix for this team. It's a bad team. Poorly constructed. Awful pitching and the offense survives on what Trout does alone. If ands or buts do not make a team. Start from scratch and rebuild.

[JAHV76]

Downs and Nathan wold be nice offseason acquisitions

[Docwaukee]

There is no easy fix for this team. It's a bad team. Poorly constructed. Awful pitching and the offense survives on what Trout does alone. If ands or buts do not make a team. Start from scratch and rebuild.

so what do we do with Albert and Josh?

[m0nkey]

Bring in weezy

[kevinb]

so what do we do with Albert and Josh?

U have to keep them but doesn't mean they have to like the rebuild process. Just cause u made a bad investment doesn't mean you have to continue to spend money to try and rectify it. Sell of parts and rebuild

[Ohtaniland]

It could be that Pujols and Hamilton never recover, but we are locked into them regardless so we might as well hope for the best. Whether the odds are for or against that is largely irrelevant. Granted, going forward they shouldn't rely on it.

Pujols will be fine I think for 2-3 more years. He was very good for all but a month of his first year and the injury is what slowed him down this year. We had the best offense in the league with him at .280/.850. That would be fine.

It's gonna be tough for Josh to replicate the 5 WAR that Torii put up in 2012, but a solid .280/.850ops would be great.

The halos have some options on offense with Calhoun, Bourjos, Trumbo, and even Shuck. One of those should get us a solid pitcher.

I think AJ did a nice job with this article but let's be realistic. Josh and Albert are going to be the biggest tandem boat anchors in baseball for the next few years. I doubt that either of these guys are even good leaders in the clubhouse. That's an underrated problem. If you're gonna suck at least be a solid teammate and give 100% effort every game. Edited September 1, 2013 by Hamiltown

[Docwaukee]

U have to keep them but doesn't mean they have to like the rebuild process. Just cause u made a bad investment doesn't mean you have to continue to spend money to try and rectify it. Sell of parts and rebuild

a good portion of the team that won 89 games is still around.  Vargas is better than three of the starters that year.  And Richards is likely as well.  The offense can be similar.  The pen needs work but the 2012 pen was pretty bad as well. 

You are 2 pen arms, re-signing Vargas, and a SP away from being better than that 2012 team. 

 

Isn't scrapping a team after one bad season as reactionary as spending a bunch of money to buy a team?

[Docwaukee]

I think AJ did a nice job with this article but let's be realistic. Josh and Albert are going to be the biggest tandem boat anchors in baseball for the next few years. I doubt that either of these guys are even good leaders in the clubhouse. That's an underrated problem. If you're gonna suck at least be a solid teammate and give 100% effort every game.

winning games solves made up clubhouse issues. 

 

Yes, Alberts contract is gonna suck going forward, but he had a decent year and then he was injured.  There is no real indication that he won't be able to provide production similar to 2012 for at least two more years.

 

Hamilton is the one I worry about.  I have no idea what he's capable of at this point.