Is this rock bottom?

[fan_since79]

3 hours ago, thebloob said:

 The only way through from here is to realllllly suck for a few years to build up the farm then nice days will come.  

Yep, like Baltimore, like Houston. Maybe we have to lose 105 games for a few years to stock our farm with prize prospects who will star in the near future.

It's a 5-year rebuild (or thereabouts). With a new owner, new management, and baseball people who want championships, not silly promotions and fluff.

[Just Sayin]

Look at the bright side.  You can drive to the ballpark a half hour before the first pitch and still get a seat behind home plate if you want one.

[Angels 1961]

16 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Or sell and tank. They should be taking offers now, but don't really have much to sell - except for guys they'd want to keep. So right now the hope is that guys like Ward, Anderson and the relievers play well enough that they can be flipped for prospects in July. I mean, except for maybe 6-8ish guys in the entire org, everyone is expendable. 

 

Rengifo also could be traded and why wait until July? Many teams need BP help and some need OF help. With right offer I trade Detmers and Sandoval.

[Rollinghard]

It is all about pitching. If we traded all our pitchers for all the Mariners pitchers we have a great team.We'll, OK, a good team. It is impossible to have a playoff team without better pitching. How do the Atlanta Braves produce good pitching year after year and the Angels seem to never have a good staff? Until the Angels figure out how to scout, develope and trade better pitchers it will more of the same mediocrity at best. 

[Adam]

Don't think we hit rock bottom for another 2 years

[Angels in 2030]

Remember how good it felt when it was announced that Arte was selling the team.  The good ol' days.  Oh what could have been.

[SC Halo]

17 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Or sell and tank. They should be taking offers now, but don't really have much to sell - except for guys they'd want to keep. So right now the hope is that guys like Ward, Anderson and the relievers play well enough that they can be flipped for prospects in July. I mean, except for maybe 6-8ish guys in the entire org, everyone is expendable. 

 

I’m down with that order of operations and agree on keeping the future core intact.  How many picks in the top 100 will we have?

[floplag]

I dont know if its rock bottom, but its a close to it as this franchise has been in a very long time.
Terrible at every level, horribly run, no vision no focus, unwatchable product,  just.. nothing to look at and think this is where it gets better.
Moreno couldnt even get selling it right since the value right now has to be FARE lower than it was at the time.
Ive never been checked out by May before, weve never lost 100 games, i think at this point its more likely that we do then we dont.

[DMVol]

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

Rengifo also could be traded and why wait until July? Many teams need BP help and some need OF help. With right offer I trade Detmers and Sandoval.

The only way you would make a trade now and not wait would be if you think a player won't sustain early success.  That might include Anderson but you run the risk of pulling the trigger too early if he keeps pitching well.  if his ERA is still under 3.00 in July, he'd be a very attractive trade candidate. 

[Stradling]

Unless someone offers you a deal you can’t say no to then you will get a higher return at the deadline. 

[Taylor]

17 minutes ago, DMVol said:

The only way you would make a trade now and not wait would be if you think a player won't sustain early success.  That might include Anderson but you run the risk of pulling the trigger too early if he keeps pitching well.  if his ERA is still under 3.00 in July, he'd be a very attractive trade candidate. 

But if his ERA balloons to 5.00 in July, he'll no longer be an attractive trade candidate.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

120 losses is rock bottom.  Next year or two.  

[fan_since79]

What happened to all the pitchers we drafted a couple years ago? That was supposed to solve our problems.

 

[Docwaukee]

11 hours ago, Duren, Duren said:

Why is the farm system so mediocre?

Scouting and player development are the keys to producing good prospects. 

In the past scouts would physically 'beat the bushes' as the saying goes. Now it's computers, video and analytics that seem prioritized. And often over rule what was seen by scouts first hand. 

The 2012 Clint Eastwood movie 'Trouble with the Curve' dramatizes this contrast though it wasn't the greatest movie. 

As well, player development with these prospects is critical. 

Seems the Angels just have no long term plan or dependable infrastructure in place for finding and  growing young talent. That draft a few years ago of only pitchers was a sign of pure desperation and a panic reaction. 

A true rebuild ideally starts with a new owner, head of baseball ops and an organization of the best available scouts, coaches and managers. All on the same page with a master plan. And the patience to grow it. 

Just year after year of stagnation and reflex moves remind me of the Bob Dylan line.

"If you don't start swimming you'll sink like a stone because the times they are a changin." 

 

It's not even mediocre at this point really.  And there aren't many teams that have some sort of secret sauce in terms of development.  For the most part it's about volume.  Drafting 20 pitchers isn't desperation.  It's just a mathematical oddity.  My guess is that they didn't skip over 9 position players higher on their board to take Ky Bush.  How does adding a sprinkling of position players in that draft really change things all that much.  

By and large, there's no magic to keeping your farm system decent.  The angel's biggest problem has come from self evaluation.  They either don't know who they are or are unwilling to accept it.  For about the last 15 years they have not moved some players when they had an opportunity, they've prioritized proximity to the majors over talent, and they've traded away org currency where the return, while fair, wasn't close to moving the needle (making these efforts wasted). 

On top of that, their starting point was scorched earth so there was an entire infrastructure that needed to be repaired.  Even putting a solid foundation in place doesn't do anything when you don't have building materials.   

Another thing that's hurt is taking that year to year win now philosophy to free agency.  Instead of turning 1-2 years contracts into prospects at the deadline with good players, it was making multi year commitments to high priced players that became immediately un moveable.  Which in turn limited your financial resources.  And because that need to field a competitive team was pervasive, any extra money was spent on 'lightning in a bottle' types with low odds of having any value that could turn into futures. 

Finally, the recent emphasis on getting your highest value picks to the major as soon as possible contributes. 

Teams do each of these things sparingly based on the situation, and while none of them are individually catastrophic, doing them all, across the board, every time, over a period of 15 years, has resulted in exactly where they are now.  

the next problem is that now there is a solid core of young players at the major league level with zero support elsewhere in the org.  In order to take advantage of that, they'll justify their deadline deals of, again, taking talent close to the majors over more worthwhile players who would take time to develop.  And while the FA market was pretty thin this last year, a decrease in payroll was favored over adding some mid range talent that could be swapped for future talent at the deadline.  

The bottom line is that they're still doing it the same way.  A general unwillingness to accept a plan that requires 5+ years instead of less than 3.  

[DMVol]

44 minutes ago, Taylor said:

But if his ERA balloons to 5.00 in July, he'll no longer be an attractive trade candidate.

That was my point.....you might  consider moving him now, if the deal was attractive enough....but obviously there is risk involved, either way....

[Blarg]

Which teams do you think are looking for pitching in the first week of May? You can talk trade all you want but there has to be a motivated buyer. 

[Taylor]

24 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Which teams do you think are looking for pitching in the first week of May? You can talk trade all you want but there has to be a motivated buyer. 

The Astros?

[Jeremiah]

20 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Which teams do you think are looking for pitching in the first week of May? You can talk trade all you want but there has to be a motivated buyer. 

Generally this is correct, but early-season trades do happen. The Pads just acquired last season’s batting champ from MIA, which kind of came out of nowhere. Yogi Berra said, “It gets late early out there.” Maybe another team wants to strike while the iron is hot.

[Jeremiah]

1 minute ago, Taylor said:

The Astros?

I was thinking of them as well, but their rough start made their playoff chances pretty slim, 44% according to FG. They’re a very data-driven team, so they might not look to add unless they start to look like they can defy the odds.

[VladimirTrout27]

Yeah, they're bad. Hard to trade guys who are in sell low status. Need injuries to happen or guys to do better for their value to go up. Being that they're $44M under the tax, I feel taking on bad deals for assets is the way to go. The Dodgers did it, but went over, and yiu bite the bullet to restock

[DMVol]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

Which teams do you think are looking for pitching in the first week of May? You can talk trade all you want but there has to be a motivated buyer. 

Probably not many....but I was surprised that the Pads would go after Arraez this early and they really didn't have a glaring need for an INF'er (although he may end up  being more of a DH).....

[eaterfan]

2 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

It's not even mediocre at this point really.  And there aren't many teams that have some sort of secret sauce in terms of development.  For the most part it's about volume.  Drafting 20 pitchers isn't desperation.  It's just a mathematical oddity.  My guess is that they didn't skip over 9 position players higher on their board to take Ky Bush.  How does adding a sprinkling of position players in that draft really change things all that much.  

By and large, there's no magic to keeping your farm system decent.  The angel's biggest problem has come from self evaluation.  They either don't know who they are or are unwilling to accept it.  For about the last 15 years they have not moved some players when they had an opportunity, they've prioritized proximity to the majors over talent, and they've traded away org currency where the return, while fair, wasn't close to moving the needle (making these efforts wasted). 

On top of that, their starting point was scorched earth so there was an entire infrastructure that needed to be repaired.  Even putting a solid foundation in place doesn't do anything when you don't have building materials.   

Another thing that's hurt is taking that year to year win now philosophy to free agency.  Instead of turning 1-2 years contracts into prospects at the deadline with good players, it was making multi year commitments to high priced players that became immediately un moveable.  Which in turn limited your financial resources.  And because that need to field a competitive team was pervasive, any extra money was spent on 'lightning in a bottle' types with low odds of having any value that could turn into futures. 

Finally, the recent emphasis on getting your highest value picks to the major as soon as possible contributes. 

Teams do each of these things sparingly based on the situation, and while none of them are individually catastrophic, doing them all, across the board, every time, over a period of 15 years, has resulted in exactly where they are now.  

the next problem is that now there is a solid core of young players at the major league level with zero support elsewhere in the org.  In order to take advantage of that, they'll justify their deadline deals of, again, taking talent close to the majors over more worthwhile players who would take time to develop.  And while the FA market was pretty thin this last year, a decrease in payroll was favored over adding some mid range talent that could be swapped for future talent at the deadline.  

The bottom line is that they're still doing it the same way.  A general unwillingness to accept a plan that requires 5+ years instead of less than 3.  

I think at the end of the day, Arte is just cheap and short-sighted. He'll spend money on things the clients will see like the MLB payroll and the scoreboards, but will be as cheap as possible with every other facet of the game. A lot of the teams that do have the "secret sauce" to draft and development spend money on scouting, analytics for minor leaguers, better coaching and nutrition for them. It's not just random that teams that have invested the most in minor league development continue to have the most success with it. 

[jsnpritchett]

26 minutes ago, VladimirTrout27 said:

Yeah, they're bad. Hard to trade guys who are in sell low status. Need injuries to happen or guys to do better for their value to go up. Being that they're $44M under the tax, I feel taking on bad deals for assets is the way to go. The Dodgers did it, but went over, and yiu bite the bullet to restock

Taking on bad deals, even if they come with assets, is absolutely not what the Angels should be doing when they have $75M+ committed to Rendon and Trout for next year. 

[eaterfan]

5 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Taking on bad deals, even if they come with assets, is absolutely not what the Angels should be doing when they have $75M+ committed to Rendon and Trout for next year. 

Hard disagree. Get as much young talent into the org as possible. It's not money and this team isn't competing. If Arte can pay $$$ to get a recent first round pick as a PTBNL or something like that, why not? 

Why does it matter what the payroll is, as long as it's below the luxury tax? It's not like taking on more money will keep us from signing anyone who would lead us to the playoffs. 

One huge advantage that large market clubs have over small market ones is the ability to throw money around at young talent. The Yankees and Sox did this to build up their farm systems before the hard cap on draft slots went into place. Arte never did. The Dodgers take on bad deals to get in talent. Arte should, too.

[jsnpritchett]

5 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Hard disagree. Get as much young talent into the org as possible. It's not money and this team isn't competing. If Arte can pay $$$ to get a recent first round pick as a PTBNL or something like that, why not? 

Why does it matter what the payroll is, as long as it's below the luxury tax? It's not like taking on more money will keep us from signing anyone who would lead us to the playoffs. 

One huge advantage that large market clubs have over small market ones is the ability to throw money around at young talent. The Yankees and Sox did this to build up their farm systems before the hard cap on draft slots went into place. Arte never did. The Dodgers take on bad deals to get in talent. Arte should, too.

If you're getting a good recent 1st round pick, maybe that changes the equation. If it's a Wil Wilson-type deal (in reverse, since the Angels would be the ones taking on salary, obviously), still a no for me.