Is this rock bottom?

[Angelsjunky]

Just in the last couple weeks:

• Anthony Rendon out indefinitely (again)
• Trout out for 4-8 weeks (at least)
• Breakout prospect Cole Fontenelle has major leg injury, out for year
• After seemingly breaking out, "staff ace" Reid Detmers has given up 16 ER in last three starts (12 in last two)
• Also after seemingly breaking out, Jo Adell is back to sucking
• Probably more that I can't be bothered typing

The team is 12-22, ten games below .500 on May 5, with no signs of improvement. Meaning, it is going to be a long season, most likely. Not sure, but it is probably one of their worst starts in years (and yes, I know about 6-14...but they were 18-16 at this point in 2002).

What's worse is that it is hard to imagine a path out of this morass. Except for a few kinda bright spots, the farm system still sucks, and there's just not enough talent between the major league team and the best of the farm to put together a contender in the foreseeable future. And at this point, let's be honest: nothing Perry Minasian has done in the last few years earns confidence in whatever his path forward is (most likely out of a job before 2025).

I suppose the silver lining is that, ironically, the last two years feels like the streak of mediocrity has ended, as the team is legitimately bad. Actually, they've been pretty bad for a few years, but this year could be really bad. But I'm sure the Angels will find a way to even fuck that up, and play better in the second half, and scramble for 70ish wins somehow. 

But who knows, maybe 2024 is for the Angels what 2011 was for the Astros. The Astros then had three years in a row in which they lost at least 106 games, a better but still really bad year in 2014, but then started getting good in 2015 and were a powerhouse from 2017-23. 

We can dream, right? 

Right now I feel more apathetic about the Angels than I have in...well, ever. I just don't really care all that much and can't muster up my usual angle towards optimism (aka "spin"). I suppose this is what happens when a perennially mediocre team loses its top-end talent--Trout to injury and decline, Ohtani to fresher waters. Trout and Ohtani were masking what has been the case since 2016 or so: a bad franchise and bad team. 

[BTH]

I think so.

I don’t think the product and talent in the organization has ever been lower in the 21st century than it is now.

[SC Halo]

Tank and sell

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, BTH said:

I think so.

I don’t think the product and talent in the organization has ever been lower in the 21st century than it is now.

I think what gets me most, and what makes me feel like it is just a terrible organization, is that they've now had almost a decade of mediocrity-to-crapitude, and still have one of the worst farm systems in all of baseball. It is frankly mind-boggling.

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, SC Halo said:

Tank and sell

Or sell and tank. They should be taking offers now, but don't really have much to sell - except for guys they'd want to keep. So right now the hope is that guys like Ward, Anderson and the relievers play well enough that they can be flipped for prospects in July. I mean, except for maybe 6-8ish guys in the entire org, everyone is expendable. 

 

[Blarg]

Not quite Rock bottom.

[Jay]

If not you can probably see it from here.

[Slegnaac]

• O'Hoppe hand contusion 

[jsnpritchett]

40 minutes ago, Slegnaac said:

• O'Hoppe hand contusion 

Shouldn't be a big deal, though who knows with the Angels injury history. 

[Stradling]

Yep. It is rock bottom, but I will take the collection of young talent on this team over the young talent we’ve had in the last 20 years. 

[Slegnaac]

33 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Shouldn't be a big deal, though who knows with the Angels injury history. 

My point exactly.   I flinch any time I see someone get hit by a ball, trip, run into something, etc.

[Jason]

1 hour ago, SC Halo said:

Tank and sell

They will inadvertently tank and Arte won't sell. 

[stormngt]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Or sell and tank. They should be taking offers now, but don't really have much to sell - except for guys they'd want to keep. So right now the hope is that guys like Ward, Anderson and the relievers play well enough that they can be flipped for prospects in July. I mean, except for maybe 6-8ish guys in the entire org, everyone is expendable. 

 

If we are nore than 5 years from competing, then throw Adell, and Detmer into that mix

[fan_since79]

Rock bottom? Yes.

Ohtani this afternoon, 4-4, 3 RBI, 2 HR. Dodgers on a roll, 10 games over .500.

 

[thebloob]

This is where the organizational management mis-read their assets for years and created the rock bottom mess with no end in sight.  The astros the the tank and rebuild right by selling off anything not nailed to the floor for prospects.  You could argue about some bad luck, rendon and trouts injurie histories, but the farm has been barren for a while.  The biggest miss was buying last year when they should have sold with ohtani.  He would have likely brought multiple prospects and not clearing out whatever good was in a thin system. I know this won’t be popular but they also should have talked to Trout about moving him to if they want to rebuild for future sustained success.  The only way through from here is to realllllly suck for a few years to build up the farm then nice days will come.  

[CaliAngel]

I can't remember a season where I was more disinterested in watching the games so early in the season.

If they win, I'll watch the condensed games on MLB.TV, but I'm not going to be watching a whole game again until they're over .500

The Rays are fun to watch.

[BTH]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think what gets me most, and what makes me feel like it is just a terrible organization, is that they've now had almost a decade of mediocrity-to-crapitude, and still have one of the worst farm systems in all of baseball. It is frankly mind-boggling.

Yep.

They've basically had a decade of their "no-plan, plan" where they try and supplement the team via free agency and occasional trades to build around Trout/Pujols, then Trout/Ohtani, and now Trout, and they keep on failing.

Yet they keep on chalking it up to bad luck/health.

[T.G.]

This organization passed rock bottom a while ago on its way to oblivion.

[Farmbuildingfan]

f

For the last 10 years the Angels have been both the worst organization and the unluckiest organization. The odds of that are one in 900, but I suspect the two are somewhat related.

Bad teams are not going to get breaks from the umps.  Have the Angels won any challenges this year?

The Angels seem to deflate after every bad call by the umps or every bad bounce of the ball or error.

[jsnpritchett]

30 minutes ago, thebloob said:

This is where the organizational management mis-read their assets for years and created the rock bottom mess with no end in sight.  The astros the the tank and rebuild right by selling off anything not nailed to the floor for prospects.  You could argue about some bad luck, rendon and trouts injurie histories, but the farm has been barren for a while.  The biggest miss was buying last year when they should have sold with ohtani.  He would have likely brought multiple prospects and not clearing out whatever good was in a thin system. I know this won’t be popular but they also should have talked to Trout about moving him to if they want to rebuild for future sustained success.  The only way through from here is to realllllly suck for a few years to build up the farm then nice days will come.  

Yep.  And I'm sure someone will chime in and claim that's because the Angels get guys to the bigs faster, etc., etc.  Cool.  The team has still consistently been mediocre-to-sucky for a decade now, so it's clear that even the guys they're getting to the majors faster aren't collectively enough to truly make a difference.  And, yes, I understand that strategy is a recent trend, but as I've said elsewhere, you basically can't miss with any of those guys if you're employing that strategy--especially when your other picks have been mediocre at best and disastrous at worst.

[Angelsjunky]

Here's a chart:

Angels history, games above or below .500. Green is over, purple below. Darker green means playoffs, the really dark with a star is World Series champs. Light green or light purple are pro-rated to 162 games, for seasons shortened due to strike, covid, or this year's pro-rated record.

Now I don't expect the Angels to continue at a 12-22 pace all year - that's 57-105 for the season. If they don't markedly improve, though, they could lose 100 - and seem likely to lose 95 or so.

Looks like rock-bottom to me. They had seven losing seasons in a row from 1971-77, but this would be the ninth (2016-24). Crazy to think that the 2010-15 period was actually pretty good, historically speaking.

I think the real "dark age" began in 2021 - Trout injured for most of the year, the feeling of hope for something better beginning to face. In 2016-20, there was still a feeling that they could turn it around. 21's horribleness was masked by Ohtani's first great year, but that was it. It has been just awful since.

Of course rock-bottom is the point at which things start to improve. This might be more of a long slow curve, though, than a sharp rise.

Edited May 6 by Angelsjunky

[Billy_Ball]

[Duren, Duren]

Why is the farm system so mediocre?

Scouting and player development are the keys to producing good prospects. 

In the past scouts would physically 'beat the bushes' as the saying goes. Now it's computers, video and analytics that seem prioritized. And often over rule what was seen by scouts first hand. 

The 2012 Clint Eastwood movie 'Trouble with the Curve' dramatizes this contrast though it wasn't the greatest movie. 

As well, player development with these prospects is critical. 

Seems the Angels just have no long term plan or dependable infrastructure in place for finding and  growing young talent. That draft a few years ago of only pitchers was a sign of pure desperation and a panic reaction. 

A true rebuild ideally starts with a new owner, head of baseball ops and an organization of the best available scouts, coaches and managers. All on the same page with a master plan. And the patience to grow it. 

Just year after year of stagnation and reflex moves remind me of the Bob Dylan line.

"If you don't start swimming you'll sink like a stone because the times they are a changin." 

 

[Chuck]

We talked about a bunch of the points made in this thread on our show today. 

 

[fan_since79]

2 hours ago, CaliAngel said:

I can't remember a season where I was more disinterested in watching the games so early in the season.

If they win, I'll watch the condensed games on MLB.TV, but I'm not going to be watching a whole game again until they're over .500

The Rays are fun to watch.

I have the Phillies to console me.

Born and raised in Philly.