A true #1 pitcher

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Blarg said:

Yes. They have been telling these guys to come in throwing their best heat from pitch 1 until they are gassed by the 5th inning. Today you see guys pushing their peak early and wonder why they can't locate. The bullpen session simply wasn't enough mechanical repetition to create control. 

What you saw in previous decades is the guys with real heat, like a Nolan Ryan, he would start in the low to mid 90's and basically warm up to go hard from inning 6 forward. So later innings they had lots of reserve and a good feel for their control to let it loose from 95-100 mph without killing the mascot.

That is why you saw those guys clocking in a lot of 7-9 inning outings. They created a slow accelerating pace towards velocity which is far less stress on the arm. They hadn't given away their best pitches while the other team was fresh and ready. 

 

Again, I think it is the main factor, just that there might be other factors (e.g. too much emphasis on strength training vs. flexibility, but that's just conjecture).

But I think you're right on - and Nolan is a good example. This is also why I refered to today's starters--and more so tomorrow's, if the trend holds--as "opening closers" or some such. DeGrom, when healthy, is basically Eric Gagne in his prime, and even Gagne pitching 80ish innings blew out his arm and had a short career.

I wonder if part of it was trying to compensate for the hitting of the 90s. I know innings were going down for decades before, but we've had quite a drop over the last decade plus. Hitting and pitching tend to see-saw over the long span of history, so it may be that in trying to catch back up with hitters, pitchers have taken a damaging move that could end up hurting baseball in the long-run. Sometimes trends go down bad paths and hopefully self-correct. 

I'm working on a chart of innings over all of baseball history. The main takeaway is that while the overall trend is clear from the 1870s-80s until now, there was actually some fluctuation. Inning counts were actually pretty stable from about the 1920s until the 70s, with some ups and down (down in the hitting-dominant 50s, up in the pitching-dominant 60s).

It might be similar to the three true outcomes phenomena on the hitting side: it was very extreme, but it seems that teams are re-discovering the benefits of speed (and maybe contact). Last year had the most stolen bases since 1987...hope the trend continues. And I hope that pitchers re-learn how to pace themselves, and we start seeing more 200 IP starters. I think the current paradigm is too unbalanced.

One last thing: I agree with Bill James who said, back in 2000, that the best and most balanced version of baseball was probably the 1980s...there was a nice diversity of play styles, with a good amount of HR (but not too much) and tons of stolen bases. It is not unlike how (imo, at least) my favorite version of Trout was 2012-13. It has all been great, but I loved the power-speed-discipline combo.

Edited March 30 by Angelsjunky

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

6 hours ago, Junkballer said:

AJ, a couple of years ago you had a fantastic post that compared the Nationals and other WS teams with heavy top ends with other rotations deep with 2s & 3s.  As I recall, the jist was that because relying on having #1-types is difficult to draft/project/develop/acquire (also risky due to the likelihood of injury), that the trend of WS winners was towards deeper rotations with mid-tier arms.  Anyway, I doubt that I summarized that post well but, it was a fantastic analysis and very relevant to the current conversation.

Mid tier is fine! Back end skus...

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

4 hours ago, stormngt said:

I remember Weavers rookie year when so many argued he is a #3 at best.

Weave also demanded respect (he was also the War Horse at LBST), took the ball, and flat out shoved even if he didn't have his best stuff. He still went after hitters even at the end he had adjusted to pitching to contact.

To me a True Ace is, the one that will walk out and force the opposition to take notice. They have the inner fire, they reak of confidence in their ability, their defense and team. They grind it out when not at their best. They battle to stay in for 1 more pitch. They don't walk off the mound after being pulled like a broken puppy. Their fired up and pissed off that they came out. Frustrated more at themselves for not doing more. They exude confidence!

The whole we'll get them tomorrow. Only works if you build off of the bad start and don't have the same result as what happened 2 or 3 starts down the schedule. It's working through mistakes and fixing them, being consistent. Every other start isn't consistency in anything but being inconsistent!

Most of the times when you have one Horse the others attempt to match/keep pace with them. Then suddenly you have 2,3 4 guys battling every start. Example look at what Anderson did with the Doggs... Look what we thought he would bring here? He wasn't the guy, he fed off the guy Kershaw! Except on bad teams in Colorado.

It's a complete mindset!

[Junkballer]

1 hour ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Mid tier is fine! Back end skus...

Yes.  They have the potential to have 2,3,3,3,4 but 3,3,4,4,5 is more realistic.

[Angel Oracle]

5 hours ago, Blarg said:

Yes. They have been telling these guys to come in throwing their best heat from pitch 1 until they are gassed by the 5th inning. Today you see guys pushing their peak early and wonder why they can't locate. The bullpen session simply wasn't enough mechanical repetition to create control. 

What you saw in previous decades is the guys with real heat, like a Nolan Ryan, he would start in the low to mid 90's and basically warm up to go hard from inning 6 forward. So later innings they had lots of reserve and a good feel for their control to let it loose from 95-100 mph without killing the mascot.

That is why you saw those guys clocking in a lot of 7-9 inning outings. They created a slow accelerating pace towards velocity which is far less stress on the arm. They hadn't given away their best pitches while the other team was fresh and ready. 

 

Verlander was like that too.

[TroutField]

14 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

They were also drafting 2 catchers #1 in back to back seasons. So, you could sign them for under slot... Ward #26 & Thaiss #16.

Previously, we've had so many issues in development that just getting #'s was more important. Then let them figure it out, washout as they will.

Playing catch up Perry is bringing in guys who are closer to MLB ready and who may have 3-4 * tools and have 1 or 2 less positions to deal with in the future. As for the tools "Power" is usually the last that comes as you fill out and learn to lift.

We've needed such a high influx of talent throughout the system. Perry has played catch up we even drafted what 20+ arms in that one draft...

I'm actually excited to watch Caden Dana evolve that could be your future #1. His mental makeup is what you want. He goes after guys! Silseth also has the makeup. He throws well and attacks hitters. They both may end up being your #1 & #2 in the future.

Yes all this is true. The drafting emphasis seemed to shift from toolsy high school hitters to low floor college guys that could contribute quickly. Neither worked out. 

trying to understand what warranted the facepalm emoji from you in my original post lol seems like it had a lot of the same points you expanded on. 

[ThisismineScios]

10 hours ago, Stradling said:

You wish we would let our prospects play?  That is exactly what has been happening for 3 years.  

In the minors. Without the discussion constantly centering around, “When will they make their debut?” EG this year if we need a starter, let Wantz, Soriano, Plesac, and Rosenberg pitch and let Dana and Bachman have 20 starts in the minors. 

[floplag]

Youre not getting ace level guys, pitching or hitting, drafting middle of the rounds without getting very lucky.

[TroutBaseball]

On 3/30/2024 at 12:48 AM, cals said:

 

[Hubs]

The only "Aces" the Angels have ever had are probably Dean Chance, Nolan Ryan, Frank Tanana, Mark Langston, Chuck Finley, and Jered Weaver....maybe Dan Haren for a year...and Oh And Bartolo for a year or three. Ohtani also for two seasons.