Baseball America: Don't sleep on Griffin Canning in 2024

[Chuck]

Griffin Canning, Angels 

Theoretically, a sleeper is someone who has a high probability of out-earning their consensus ranking. The irony is that because these inherent probabilities are already incorporated into my ranking list, it becomes difficult to select someone who will further exceed this baked-in potential upside. In Canning’s case, it’s been a litany of injuries that has suppressed his dynasty value and not a question of skills. Canning reached 127 innings in 2023 after previously never amassing 100 innings in a season, holding opponents to an ERA of 4.32. All estimators suggest that his true talent was closer to 4.00. Canning averaged a reasonable 94.5 mph average on his fastball while sustaining a one mph velocity increase all season. All of his other standard markers of performance, such as K-BB%, groundball rate, whiff% and swinging strike rate, were all firmly average or better-than-average among 2023 starting pitchers. Surprisingly, he had essentially the same CSW% and whiff% as Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman. Canning improved not just his Stuff+ in the second half, but also amassed a 3.26 FIP, 11.6 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 53 innings from the all-star break to the end of the season. Canning will still be only 27 years old when 2024 begins and has a similar 2024 projection to Jose Berrios (though fewer innings). If he is capable of staying relatively injury-free and can surpass his conservative innings projection, look for him to easily enter the top 75 to 100 dynasty pitchers.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/dynasty-pitchers-targets-sleepers-and-fades-for-2024/

— Dylan White

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

I’m hoping he shows up. 

[ShotimeDynasty]

2nd round draft pick that was considered a potential SP2. Injuries interrupted his career early on but last year’s 127 IP were very encouraging in his age 27 season. The way he ended the season was incredible. Crazy to think he could clear 160 IP in 2024, his age 28 season? 

[Chuck]

8 minutes ago, The Ghost of Bob Starr said:

I’m hoping he shows up. 

I think if he can stay healthy he will. 

[Inside Pitch]

I won't bother with the specifics because most people here don't care, but his Stuff+/Location+/Pitching+ data was all very good.  For instance, his pitching+ was 101, Shohei was at 103.  

Pitch modeling data is pretty much the next step in pitcher evaluation, both Canning and Detmers do well in those areas, their Sliders ranked 19th and 21st best in MLB for pitchers with a minimum of 100 IP -- Sandoval was 23rd BTW.  

Sandoval FB/Sinker are absolutely awful pitches, modeling wise.  If he can simply get them up from where they are now to where they simply rate out as bad pitches he'd be a huge breakout candidate.

Also I don't know what Tyler Anderson's problems were last year -- maybe it was the whole push for Ks and the negative impact it had on the staff -- but he seems to have massively underperformed.  Four of his pitches had grades of 92+ two were 104+.   

[Chuck]

13 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I won't bother with the specifics because most people here don't care, but his Stuff+/Location+/Pitching+ data was all very good.  For instance, his pitching+ was 101, Shohei was at 103.  

Pitch modeling data is pretty much the next step in pitcher evaluation, both Canning and Detmers do well in those areas, their Sliders ranked 19th and 21st best in MLB for pitchers with a minimum of 100 IP -- Sandoval was 23rd BTW.  

Sandoval FB/Sinker are absolutely awful pitches, modeling wise.  If he can simply get them up from where they are now to where they simply rate out as bad pitches he'd be a huge breakout candidate.

Also I don't know what Tyler Anderson's problems were last year -- maybe it was the whole push for Ks and the negative impact it had on the staff -- but he seems to have massively underperformed.  Four of his pitches had grades of 92+ two were 104+.   

Where did Chase Silseth rank in terms of the same pitch modeling @Inside Pitch?

[Inside Pitch]

6 hours ago, Chuck said:

Where did Chase Silseth rank in terms of the same pitch modeling @Inside Pitch?

Two pitches over 102, three over 99, and four over 92, so it's pretty promising. 

I'm still in the "prove this actually translates" mode with pitch modeling, but one of the things that they make clear is that they need to see a certain number of pitches before the numbers mean anything, so it may be a bit early to make any real statements about him,

But the early data pretty much jives with what we have seen, eye test wise.  His sinker has been crappy -- his FB as a whole just doesn't move much which is why a guy with his velocity hasn't seen the results.  

But his slider and cutter grade out really nicely.

The whole idea behind pitch modeling is to take the movement and velocity and compare it to the league average.  If you then compare how those pitches grade out to the data at say Baseball Savant for the actual and expected results for the pitch types it's crazy how well the two data points match up.

For instance, his four seamer had a stuff+rating of 84 -- if you look at how hitters fared vs that pitch you'll see a wOBA of .423 which is awful.  Meanwhile his cutter comes in at 105 with a wOBA of .202

This is why I obsess over crap like this.  You watch him pitch you see the plus velocity but the lack of movement and then you watch him give up hard hit contact as a result.  So it's nice to be able to go look for stuff like this that isolates movement/velocity and allows you to compare that info to the actual results in order to formulate an opinion based on more than just what you think you know.  Silseth is a work in progress but there are things in his tool box that you can't teach and the Angels need to refine.  He's someone ppl should have some hope for.

Back to Canning.. I've been talking him up as a breakout guy for a couple years now, there is now data that shows why that's not just eye test BS..

[Blarg]

Unfortunately Canning was more of a break guy instead of breakouts. If healthy and the pitching plan is based on ability instead forcing a singular mandated program, he and all the others should improve on last season. Let what they bring to the mound that day dictate the game plan.

[Vlad27Trout27]

For Canning the stuff has always been there, for me it has always been about limiting the homerun ball. The stuff is there for him to be  a 2/3. 

My predicition for him will be:

24G, 11-6, 3.56 Era in 134 innings. 

[Angel Oracle]

Is there a way to improve the movement on Silseth’s heat?

[Angel Oracle]

7 hours ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

For Canning the stuff has always been there, for me it has always been about limiting the homerun ball. The stuff is there for him to be  a 2/3. 

My predicition for him will be:

24G, 11-6, 3.56 Era in 134 innings. 

He pitched 127 innings in 2023.

No reason he can’t pitch at least 150 innings across say 27 starts.

[Docwaukee]

Canning has good stuff.  But not so good that he could fake his way to success off one or even two pitches.  Which is why him getting developed and having time is so key.  Sequencing and experience are just critical for him.  

And this thread makes me upset about Bradish.   

[Inside Pitch]

19 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

And this thread makes me upset about Bradish.   

Have you seen the modeling data on him?  That kid is for real,

 

[Tank]

On 1/27/2024 at 11:30 AM, Inside Pitch said:

Two pitches over 102, three over 99, and four over 92, so it's pretty promising. 

I'm still in the "prove this actually translates" mode with pitch modeling, but one of the things that they make clear is that they need to see a certain number of pitches before the numbers mean anything, so it may be a bit early to make any real statements about him,

But the early data pretty much jives with what we have seen, eye test wise.  His sinker has been crappy -- his FB as a whole just doesn't move much which is why a guy with his velocity hasn't seen the results.  

But his slider and cutter grade out really nicely.

The whole idea behind pitch modeling is to take the movement and velocity and compare it to the league average.  If you then compare how those pitches grade out to the data at say Baseball Savant for the actual and expected results for the pitch types it's crazy how well the two data points match up.

For instance, his four seamer had a stuff+rating of 84 -- if you look at how hitters fared vs that pitch you'll see a wOBA of .423 which is awful.  Meanwhile his cutter comes in at 105 with a wOBA of .202

This is why I obsess over crap like this.  You watch him pitch you see the plus velocity but the lack of movement and then you watch him give up hard hit contact as a result.  So it's nice to be able to go look for stuff like this that isolates movement/velocity and allows you to compare that info to the actual results in order to formulate an opinion based on more than just what you think you know.  Silseth is a work in progress but there are things in his tool box that you can't teach and the Angels need to refine.  He's someone ppl should have some hope for.

Back to Canning.. I've been talking him up as a breakout guy for a couple years now, there is now data that shows why that's not just eye test BS..

when i become GM after perry, i'm hiring you for my bench coach. i don't mind dropping an extra $15k to hire you. heck, i'll even go up an extra $18k because it's you. 

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Have you seen the modeling data on him?  That kid is for real,

 

so painful.  punches me in the face any time I go and look.  Eyeballing Montgomery a bit ago and there it.  

I've always wondered how something like a Jake Arrieta for Scott Feldman trade happens and what kind of team couldn't recognize top of the rotation stuff.  

It's the kind of trade that happens when you think you need two starters to maintain your .450 winning percentage and instead of spending your way through it you cheap it up on Teheran and trading org currency for Dylan Bundy.  

I guess one of the advantages to Canning being hurt is that they didn't give him away for some crappy yet 'established' starter.  

[Angel Oracle]

6 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Have you seen the modeling data on him?  That kid is for real,

 

Anybody that can pitch well in New Mexico State’s high altitude definitely showed promise.

 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Anybody that can pitch well in New Mexico State’s high altitude definitely showed promise.

I made that very comment the day he was drafted and voiced my displeasure the day he was traded.

[ThisismineScios]

The thing that I thought got Canning in trouble last year was elevating his slider, especially with 2 strikes. The 2-strike approach as a whole was problematic, but I saw too many sliders elevated in the zone. It's too good of a pitch for him to be dropping it in the same spot you'd put a heater. 

[REDneck]

7 hours ago, Tank said:

when i become GM after perry, i'm hiring you for my bench coach. i don't mind dropping an extra $15k to hire you. heck, i'll even go up an extra $18k because it's you. 

Arte will not sign him for such an absurd amount of money.

IP will have to work for bean burritos if he would like to contribute and be part of the team.

 

[Blarg]

Looking back at the 2017 draft in the second round, Griffith Canning is of three players to have any success in the majors out of 39 picks. The other two guys are catchers. 

[Tank]

2 hours ago, REDneck said:

Arte will not sign him for such an absurd amount of money.

IP will have to work for bean burritos if he would like to contribute and be part of the team.

 

forget that. i'm taking IP to Naugles. 

He's earned it.

[Angel Oracle]

7 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I made that very comment the day he was drafted and voiced my displeasure the day he was traded.

Same here 

[Halo in Chicago]

6 hours ago, ThisismineScios said:

The thing that I thought got Canning in trouble last year was elevating his slider, especially with 2 strikes. The 2-strike approach as a whole was problematic, but I saw too many sliders elevated in the zone. It's too good of a pitch for him to be dropping it in the same spot you'd put a heater. 

I agree about the 2 strike approach. So many of our starters could get to 2 strikes only to throw a meatball for a hit... Hopefully that changes this season. 

[Chuck]

Good interview that David Saltzer did with Griffin Canning a few years ago. He shows all of his pitch grips and talks about how he likes to attack hitters. 

 

[Chuck]

https://theathletic.com/5224402/2024/01/29/eno-sarris-starting-pitcher-fantasy-baseball-ranking/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=mlbtw&source=mlbtw

88. Griffin Canning 98. Reid Detmers 110. Patrick Sandoval 117. Chase Silseth