Quick and dirty 2024 lineup assessment

[Angelsjunky]

"Quick and dirty" because I'm not thinking too deeply into this, just spouting what comes to mind.

Bold as default starter. Plain text as back-up/bench.

Catcher: Logan O'HOPPE, Max Stassi, Matt Thaiss

I'm happy with this group. O'Hoppe will continue to improve - hopefully the plate discipline comes to pair with the power...we could have an .850 OPS catcher. Thaiss was solid with the bat in the first half, then fell apart. Not sure what happened. Stassi is the wildcard - if he can come back like he played in 2020-21, he'll be a nice weak-side platoon for O'Hoppe. If not, well, it sure would be nice to have Quero still in the minors.

First Base: Nolan SCHANUEL, Jared Walsh

What a weird triple-slash: .294/.412/.353. Love the BA and OBP - I think those are sustainable, and enough to earn him a starting job. I imagine the power will come, at least to .400-.450. Could be a borderline stud and just what the team needs, as far as OBP. Walsh's micro-comeback is intriguing and I don't see why it can't be sustainable.

Second Base: Brandon DRURY, Luis Rengifo

Drury has been a pleasant surprise - not great, but solid. I suppose he's the starting second baseman next year, with Rengifo as super UT.

Shortstop: Zack NETO, Luis Rengifo, David Fletcher

It has been a rough return to action, but not surprising. Neto will just continue to improve. He probably won't break out next year, but should at least be solid.

Third Base: Anthony RENDON, Luis Rengifo

Rendon is another important player for next year, who could really be a positive if he has a surprisingly healthy year. But the Angels have to assume he isn't playing much and adjust accordingly. We'll probably be seeing a lot of Rengifo at 3B, who will get a full season's worth as a super UT guy at 2B/SS/3B.

Outfield: Mike TROUT, Taylor WARD, Mickey MONIAK, Jo Adell, Jared Walsh

It really isn't that bad, especially if Walsh is back. Funny how that Marsh-Trout-Adell outfield has (possibly) turned (back) into Ward-Trout-Walsh. Oh well. As for Moniak, while he crashed big time, he was actually pretty good over his last two weeks before getting hurt: .311/.326/.489 in his last 12 games. I could see him settling in as a .280/.310/.480 guy...not sexy, but not the worst player to have around. Why do I still have hope for Adell? I just can't shake it. 

DH: Platoon. Assuming Ohtani isn't back, we're going to see DH as a "half-rest" stop for a bunch of guys, and to get others into the lineup. I could see half a dozen guys getting double-digit starts at DH.

So what do the Angels need? They could use a solid minor league veteran catcher, depending upon Stassi's outlook. They could also use another bat, although I'm not sure where he would fit. One option would be trade one or more of Moniak, Adell and Walsh for a new outfielder/DH, but with Trout and Ward's injury history and Adams not (yet) a major leaguer, they'll probably want to hold onto all five. They could probably also use a guy who can play a decent 3B, as we don't really want 100+ games from Rengifo at the hot corner. I don't think Paris will figure into the infield until the second half, and maybe not until 2025.

In other words, the success of the offense--once again--rides on the health of Trout and Rendon and, to a lesser extent, guys like O'Hoppe, Neto, and Ward. Schanuel's presence will improve the lineup and Walsh could be a surprise difference-maker. But the bottom line is that they really need at least 120 games from Trout. Something (anything!) from Rendon would be nice, but more of a plus at this point.

[stormngt]

What about Urshela?

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, stormngt said:

What about Urshela?

He's a free agent.

[stormngt]

2 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

He's a free agent.

And we do not want to re-sign him?

[jsnpritchett]

3 minutes ago, stormngt said:

And we do not want to re-sign him?

Personally, no--at least not at anywhere near the $8.4M he made this year.  I've posted elsewhere about this, but if you look at his underlying metrics, he had a pretty bad year.  Basically, his offensive stats were fueled by a higher-than-average batting average on balls in play.  His exit velocity, hard hit %, line drive %, etc. were low.  Couple that with him recovering from a pretty rare injury in baseball (a broken pelvis) and I think there's good reason to be skeptical about him bouncing back next year.  He can play a few different positions, so that makes him "valuable" on some level, I suppose--but he's definitely not someone you want to chase for either a high-value one-year deal or medium-salary two-to-four-year contract.

[Blarg]

7 minutes ago, stormngt said:

And we do not want to re-sign him?

Not sure if he comes back to his former self after being spilt in two like a Popsicle stick. 

[Angelsjunky]

44 minutes ago, stormngt said:

What about Urshela?

I was sticking to guys with contracts and/or club control. The above gives you up to 15 players, but presumably one or two (or more) will be injured and/or sent to the minors, so maybe 10-11 of those guys make the big league club, which leaves 3-4 spots open. Moustakas was the darling for a hot minute, but I really don't see why they'd want to re-sign him. But he's a known quantity, at least, and presumably liked by the rest of the team.

[BTH]

my thoughts:

C- I wouldn’t mind bringing in a veteran catcher to be O’Hoppe’s backup instead of relying on Thaiss/Stassi. The former is questionable defensively and who knows how the latter will fare after missing an entire year.

1B- Probably need to find a RHH who can play 1B so they have insurance there with Schanuel. Pending how he finishes out these two weeks, I’d offer Walsh a salary lower than his arb number as a take it or leave it.

2B/3B/SS- Drury/Rengifo/Neto/Rendon are fine, but they need to improve the depth behind them. How about having a SS stashed in AAA who can actually play defense, unlike Velazquez? Soto’s defense at SS was iffy in a small sample.

OF/DH- I think they need to add a big, everyday bat here. Then piece the rest together with Trout/Ward/Moniak/Adell, who all have health/injury questions.

[jsnpritchett]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I was sticking to guys with contracts and/or club control. The above gives you up to 15 players, but presumably one or two (or more) will be injured and/or sent to the minors, so maybe 10-11 of those guys make the big league club, which leaves 3-4 spots open. Moustakas was the darling for a hot minute, but I really don't see why they'd want to re-sign him. But he's a known quantity, at least, and presumably liked by the rest of the team.

Moustakas' OPS+ with the Angels is 74--which is the same as Chad Wallach's this year.  I know folks on here like him, but I'll say it again: a one-year deal for like $3M, tops, or just move on.

[jsnpritchett]

5 minutes ago, BTH said:

OF/DH- I think they need to add a big, everyday bat here. Then piece the rest together with Trout/Ward/Moniak/Adell, who all have health/injury questions.

The problem is that the free agents bats are pretty weak this off-season.  Bellinger (who I think someone will end up wildly overpaying for) is the top option, but after that, it's a big drop if you're talking about "big, everyday bats" at OF/DH.  Teoscar Hernandez?  Jorge Soler (assuming he opts out)? Conforto (might not opt out)? Pederson? 

[BTH]

14 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

The problem is that the free agents bats are pretty weak this off-season.  Bellinger (who I think someone will end up wildly overpaying for) is the top option, but after that, it's a big drop if you're talking about "big, everyday bats" at OF/DH.  Teoscar Hernandez?  Jorge Soler (assuming he opts out)? Conforto (might not opt out)? Pederson? 

Conforto another year removed from surgery could be interesting.

I’ve always liked Soler, but he’s not perfect.

You’re right though, it’s a bad position player class. 

[totdprods]

It's not just a bad position player class, it's a horrible one. Maybe the non-tenders add a few more intriguing names to the mix, but for now, it is really difficult seeing anybody that really is worth signing, IMO. It wouldn't hurt to have someone replace the Urshela spot as another multi-positional utility guy (Kiner-Falefa?), maybe a platoon-esque OF/1B/DH guy. We don't have much farm to trade for, nor obvious positions to really justify spending (either money or prospects). Not against someone like Moose as basically an extra coach. 

He's been god-awful this year, so I wouldn't necessary suggest signing him, but signing a player like Joey Gallo who has one plus-plus, bankable skill (be it power, defense, speed, OBP, contact) makes sense in hopes they have a good year and are tradeable. Sort of like what Renfroe could've been had he maintained power this year.

Assuming Ohtani isn't back, they should drop coin on a couple SPs - one maybe for the semi-long term (2-3 year deal), one maybe a little more high-risk/reward. 
I would personally trade Estevez, sign another non-closer RP to the closer role to build their value (good for player, good for club) on another 2-yr deal (essentially replicate the Estevez deal (Maton?) and I would replace about 75% of the bullpen with cheap vets and hope for deadline gold. Rotate the kid arms through the last 1-3 spots so no one gets burned up.

Trade an arm, develop the kids this year, don't block playing time, but don't overly rely on the youth either. Sign some low-risk, mentor-forward vets to round out the roster some. Chill for a year.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

"Quick and dirty" because I'm not thinking too deeply into this, just spouting what comes to mind.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

He's a free agent.

He's also in two pieces -- maybe...

[Inside Pitch]

Arte likes bargains.  Mike Moustakas, player manager.

[Angelsjunky]

43 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Assuming Ohtani isn't back, they should drop coin on a couple SPs - one maybe for the semi-long term (2-3 year deal), one maybe a little more high-risk/reward. 
I would personally trade Estevez, sign another non-closer RP to the closer role to build their value (good for player, good for club) on another 2-yr deal (essentially replicate the Estevez deal (Maton?) and I would replace about 75% of the bullpen with cheap vets and hope for deadline gold. Rotate the kid arms through the last 1-3 spots so no one gets burned up.

Trade an arm, develop the kids this year, don't block playing time, but don't overly rely on the youth either. Sign some low-risk, mentor-forward vets to round out the roster some. Chill for a year.

I agree with this approach, though "dropping coin" on two SPs implies they're not quite chilling.

Anyhow, I think the cold, hard truth is that the Angels will be as good next year as they are healthy. As people have said, there are literally zero elite free agent bats, with the possible exception of Bellinger - and as @jsnpritchett said, someone is going to overpay for him and possibly pay big time for it. I could see Bellinger have a really nice five-year run just as much become a total dud...not a risk the Angels want to make, given their history.

So I'm thinking the line-up is only tweaked, with a few depth pieces. It sucks, but what else can they do? Their only path towards a winning record--let alone contention--requires 250 games played by good versions of Trout and Rendon and/or Ohtani coming back, and/or Ward finding his best self. If Arte insists on trying to be legit next year, might as well drop that coin on pitching and hope for the best with the lineup.

My personal "fearless prediction" is that Adell earns a starting job before mid-season and ends the year with 25 HR. 

Edited September 19, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[jsnpritchett]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I agree with this approach, though "dropping coin" on two SPs implies they're not quite chilling.

Anyhow, I think the cold, hard truth is that the Angels will be as good next year as they are healthy. As people have said, there are literally zero elite free agent bats, with the possible exception of Bellinger - and as @jsnpritchett said, someone is going to overpay for him and possibly pay big time for it. I could see Bellinger have a really nice five-year run just as much become a total dud...not a risk the Angels want to make, given their history.

So I'm thinking the line-up is only tweaked, with a few depth pieces. It sucks, but what else can they do? Their only path towards a winning record--let alone contention--requires 250 games played by good versions of Trout and Rendon and/or Ohtani coming back, and/or Ward finding his best self. If Arte insists on trying to be legit next year, might as well drop that coin on pitching and hope for the best with the lineup.

My personal "fearless prediction" is that Adell earns a starting job before mid-season and ends the year with 25 HR. 

If the Angels don't sign Ohtani and then pivot to Bellinger, we'll know who's still making the calls.  I'm honestly terrified that's going to happen.

[Angelsjunky]

4 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

If the Angels don't sign Ohtani and then pivot to Bellinger, we'll know who's still making the calls.  I'm honestly terrified that's going to happen.

I could see it happening, unfortunately.

[totdprods]

13 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I agree with this approach, though "dropping coin" on two SPs implies they're not quite chilling.

Anyhow, I think the cold, hard truth is that the Angels will be as good next year as they are healthy. As people have said, there are literally zero elite free agent bats, with the possible exception of Bellinger - and as @jsnpritchett said, someone is going to overpay for him and possibly pay big time for it. I could see Bellinger have a really nice five-year run just as much become a total dud...not a risk the Angels want to make, given their history.

So I'm thinking the line-up is only tweaked, with a few depth pieces. It sucks, but what else can they do? Their only path towards a winning record--let alone contention--requires 250 games played by good versions of Trout and Rendon and/or Ohtani coming back, and/or Ward finding his best self. If Arte insists on trying to be legit next year, might as well drop that coin on pitching and hope for the best with the lineup.

My personal "fearless prediction" is that Adell earns a starting job before mid-season and ends the year with 25 HR. 

Yeah, when I say drop coin, I mean more along the lines of another 3/$30-39m type arm like the Anderson deal for rotation stability, maybe one 1/$20m guy like the Syndergaard deal, mirror the Estevez deal for a new closer (maybe see if you can deal Carlos for a decent SP prospect for him, either a low-ball with high upside or a near-MLB-ready high floor guy). Replicate the very cheap Watson/Cishek deals on old vets for the pen and hope a couple hit. And I’d move one of Canning or Sandoval for 2-3 young hitter prospects if able. Grab infielder Baltimore of Cincy or an outfielder from St. Louis, Milwaukee, or Arizona. I think any of those teams would have the prospect depth and need for controllable, semi-proven pitching. Good chance the Halos could either add another quick-to-majors polished arm or bat in the draft.

There’s just no need to spend any money on hitters with this class, so yeah, it still counts as somewhat significant spending, sure, but IMO still pretty measured and balanced, and IMO, it’s spending with the intent to flip most of them midseason. It’s also a safe enough play that, should the Angels kick ass next year, the staff could still be deep and stable enough to go for it.

Edited September 19, 2023 by totdprods

[Angelsjunky]

The frustrating thing is that if you look at all the position players the Angels have, the potential is there for a very potent lineup -- even without Ohtani. In terms of actual realizable potential in the near future--meaning, not ultimate upside but what I think they're capable of in 2024, if health and develop is generally positive:

O'Hoppe: .250/.340/.480, 25 HR, 120 G

Schanuel: .290/.410/.420, 10 HR, 140 G

Drury: .260/.300/.470, 25 HR, 120 G

Rengifo: .270/.340/.460, 20 HR, 130 G

Neto: .270/.340/.430, 15 HR, 140 G

Rendon: .280/.390/.450, 18 HR, 120 G

Ward: .290/.380/.500, 28 HR, 140 G

Trout: .285/.400/.570, 35 HR, 130 G

Moniak: .290/.320/.500, 25 HR, 120 G

Adell: .250/.300/.470, 25 HR, 120 G

Walsh: .270/.330/.500, 28 HR, 130 G

I am not predicting any of the above, but my point is that I think that's what those players are capable of next year, if healthy and they develop as (or return to what) befits their talents. That's a lot of offensive talent. The main obstacle is health; the second obstacle is whatever mind-fuckery infects the Angels organization.

If just half or more of those guys meet their potential above, it will be a good offense. That isn't a lot to ask, is it? Just half playing to their potential?!

I know: "The Angels."

Edited September 19, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

O'Hoppe: .250/.340/.480, 25 HR, 120 G

Schanuel: .290/.410/.420, 10 HR, 140 G

Drury: .260/.300/.470, 25 HR, 120 G

Rengifo: .270/.340/.460, 20 HR, 130 G

Neto: .270/.340/.430, 15 HR, 140 G

Rendon: .280/.390/.450, 18 HR, 120 G

Ward: .290/.380/.500, 28 HR, 140 G

Trout: .285/.400/.570, 35 HR, 130 G

Moniak: .290/.320/.500, 25 HR, 120 G

Adell: .250/.300/.470, 25 HR, 120 G

Walsh: .270/.330/.500, 28 HR, 130 G

If the bold numbers happen, the Angels will be good. Doesn't even matter what the other numbers are.

That being said, good luck with that.

[greginpsca]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I could see it happening, unfortunately.

Won't happen.

[Jeff Fletcher]

14 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

If the bold numbers happen, the Angels will be good. Doesn't even matter what the other numbers are.

That being said, good luck with that.

Over the last 3 years, only 17 teams had even 7 different guys play 120+ games. Ten of them made the playoffs.

[ScottT]

Mickey Moniak is not gonna hit .290 and slug .500 if he has the worst walk rate and the six worst strikeout rate in MLB.

[AngelStew43]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

The frustrating thing is that if you look at all the position players the Angels have, the potential is there for a very potent lineup -- even without Ohtani. In terms of actual realizable potential in the near future--meaning, not ultimate upside but what I think they're capable of in 2024, if health and develop is generally positive:

O'Hoppe: .250/.340/.480, 25 HR, 120 G

Schanuel: .290/.410/.420, 10 HR, 140 G

Drury: .260/.300/.470, 25 HR, 120 G

Rengifo: .270/.340/.460, 20 HR, 130 G

Neto: .270/.340/.430, 15 HR, 140 G

Rendon: .280/.390/.450, 18 HR, 120 G

Ward: .290/.380/.500, 28 HR, 140 G

Trout: .285/.400/.570, 35 HR, 130 G

Moniak: .290/.320/.500, 25 HR, 120 G

Adell: .250/.300/.470, 25 HR, 120 G

Walsh: .270/.330/.500, 28 HR, 130 G

I am not predicting any of the above, but my point is that I think that's what those players are capable of next year, if healthy and they develop as (or return to what) befits their talents. That's a lot of offensive talent. The main obstacle is health; the second obstacle is whatever mind-fuckery infects the Angels organization.

If just half or more of those guys meet their potential above, it will be a good offense. That isn't a lot to ask, is it? Just half playing to their potential?!

I know: "The Angels."

The only player on this list even close to his number of games played is Drury, & he’s at 113 with 12 games left.  So, 125.  This group has shown that they are exceptionally brittle, so I wouldn’t count on anything as far as games played.