Taylor Ward

[BTH]

I found something interesting about Taylor Ward, which I think explains why many people have been frustrated with him despite him having above-average numbers the last month:

Ward ranks dead last in MLB in WPA (Win Probability Added) at -2.34.

For those unfamiliar with WPA, here's a summary from FanGraphs: "Win Probability Added (WPA) captures the change in Win Expectancy from one plate appearance to the next and credits or debits the player based on how much their action increased their team’s odds of winning." https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/wpa/

 

So why is this the case?

Bases Empty: .745 OPS; Men on Base: .594 OPS; RISP: .434 OPS

Low Leverage: .857 OPS; Med Leverage: .619 OPS; High Leverage: .188 OPS

 

I went back and looked, and Ward actually had a higher OPS with RISP than the bases empty or men on base in 2022. So I'm not sure why the results are different this season. Is it sequencing/bad luck?

Or does his poor approach with RISP have something to do with it?

 

From the OC Register last month:

Count Angels outfielder Taylor Ward among those who believe a hitter shouldn’t do anything different with a runner in scoring position.

“I think the worst thing you can do is have a different approach or thought process,” Ward said. “When you realize there’s runners in scoring position, I think that puts added pressure on you and that thought isn’t good.”

https://www.ocregister.com/2023/06/05/angels-expect-anthony-rendons-return-to-boost-performance-with-runners-in-scoring-position/

 

[WicketMaiden]

20 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I found something interesting about Taylor Ward, which I think explains why many people have been frustrated with him despite him having above-average numbers the last month:

Ward ranks dead last in MLB in WPA (Win Probability Added) at -2.34.

For those unfamiliar with WPA, here's a summary from FanGraphs: "Win Probability Added (WPA) captures the change in Win Expectancy from one plate appearance to the next and credits or debits the player based on how much their action increased their team’s odds of winning." https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/wpa/

 

So why is this the case?

Bases Empty: .745 OPS; Men on Base: .594 OPS; RISP: .434 OPS

Low Leverage: .857 OPS; Med Leverage: .619 OPS; High Leverage: .188 OPS

 

I went back and looked, and Ward actually had a higher OPS with RISP than the bases empty or men on base in 2022. So I'm not sure why the results are different this season. Is it sequencing/bad luck?

Or does his poor approach with RISP have something to do with it?

 

From the OC Register last month:

Count Angels outfielder Taylor Ward among those who believe a hitter shouldn’t do anything different with a runner in scoring position.

“I think the worst thing you can do is have a different approach or thought process,” Ward said. “When you realize there’s runners in scoring position, I think that puts added pressure on you and that thought isn’t good.”

https://www.ocregister.com/2023/06/05/angels-expect-anthony-rendons-return-to-boost-performance-with-runners-in-scoring-position/

 

Interesting.

Luck could also be a factor here: this year Ward has a .276 BABIP (batting avg on balls in play), which is 49 points below last year (.325) and 30 points below the MLB average (.305).

[BTH]

12 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

Interesting.

Luck could also be a factor here: this year Ward has a .276 BABIP (batting avg on balls in play), which is 49 points below last year (.325) and 30 points below the MLB average (.305).

It plays some factor in why his numbers are worse this season, but I don't think it explains why he has struggled so much with RISP and in high leverage spots.

[WicketMaiden]

26 minutes ago, Trendon said:

It plays some factor in why his numbers are worse this season, but I don't think it explains why he has struggled so much with RISP and in high leverage spots.

His BABIP with RISP is even worse:

Season	Leverage	BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wRC	wRAA	wOBA	wRC+
2023	Low Leverage	10.8%	18.9%	0.57	.302	.392	.465	.857	.163	.354	25	7.1	.377	141
2023	Medium Leverage	7.1%	18.6%	0.38	.212	.276	.343	.619	.131	.229	13	-6.1	.271	68
2023	High Leverage	3.7%	37.0%	0.10	.077	.111	.077	.188	.000	.125	-2	-5.0	.091	-57

[TurboFan]

Ward said. “When you realize there’s runners in scoring position, I think that puts added pressure on you and that thought isn’t good.”
 

I believe Taylor just explained the reason for us very succinctly.

[Jason]

4 minutes ago, TurboFan said:

Ward said. “When you realize there’s runners in scoring position, I think that puts added pressure on you and that thought isn’t good.”
 

I believe Taylor just explained the reason for us very succinctly.

So he's unclutch? 

[TurboFan]

 

 

10 minutes ago, Jason said:

So he's unclutch? 

That is what Trendon implied. Just quoting Taylor on how he feels about his own approach, which could explain it. Even if he has been unclutch lately, he can go back to clutch quickly, I hope.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, WicketMaiden said:

His BABIP with RISP is even worse:

That gives you some hope it’ll even out and there will be positive regression.

[Blarg]

He may not be changing his approach but pitchers are with RISP. 

[WicketMaiden]

24 minutes ago, Trendon said:

That gives you some hope it’ll even out and there will be positive regression.

The worrying aspects are the walks and strikeouts in high leverage situations. Facing some high class relievers in some of those  situations won't help, but even so, he walks a third as much and strikes out twice as much when you compare his high and low leverage situations.

It reads to me like he is doing something different in clutch situations, but he is also having some terrible luck with that .125 BABIP.

[HanfordGuy]

37 minutes ago, Jason said:

So he's unclutch? 

“Mr. Unclutch.”

[HanfordGuy]

I think it was Bobby V. who said during a pregame or post game that Ward’s swing is different from last year. His balance is a little off. You notice it on the swings and misses.

[Angels 1961]

Angels with all the injuries need Ward to get hot. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 hours ago, Trendon said:

I went back and looked, and Ward actually had a higher OPS with RISP than the bases empty or men on base in 2022. So I'm not sure why the results are different this season. Is it sequencing/bad luck?

Or does his poor approach with RISP have something to do with it?

Are you suggesting that his mental approach in 2023 is different than it was in 2022? 

[Jason]

4 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Are you suggesting that his mental approach in 2023 is different than it was in 2022? 

That would explain some of the numbers that were posted here 

[HanfordGuy]

And Ward is back at the top of the lineup again.

[Angels 1961]

Maybe it's time to give Adell a shot. Moniak took off when he was called up.

[Angelsjunky]

Just one thought. I think BABIP = luck is a bit overused. Over the course of hundreds of plate appearances, it tends to equalize. A full-time player hits something like 500 balls in play every year (plus or minus), and while it may fluctuate, it isn't all--or maybe not even mostly--luck. Luck is minimized over 100s of at-bats.

I think quality of contact has something to do with it - not just how hard you hit it, but at what angle, whether you're barreling, etc. Line-drives tend to drop for hits more than long, slow flies. Meaning, line-drives > grounders and pop flies, and lower than normal BABIPs might imply that a player is hitting over or under the ball, and thus maybe it has more to do with seeing the ball, timing, mechanics, etc.

Here's a fun fact: Trout has the highest career BABIP (.346) among all players with at least 350 HR. Goldschmidt (330 HR, .348 BABIP) and Hornsby (301 HR, .365 BABIP) are the only players with 300+ HR and higher BABIPs than Trout.

[BTH]

7 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Are you suggesting that his mental approach in 2023 is different than it was in 2022? 

I think it's possible, yes. Something has got to be different.

How else can you explain such a huge drop-off? It can't just be bad luck or sequencing, can it?

[AngelsFaninGA]

14 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I think it's possible, yes. Something has got to be different.

How else can you explain such a huge drop-off? It can't just be bad luck or sequencing, can it?

Like many Angels hitters, he turtles in high leverage situations. And we already know this team struggles with all mental aspects of the game. 

[full circle]

Prime candidate for replacement.  His swing is not as good as it was last year.   

[Jeff Fletcher]

44 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I think it's possible, yes. Something has got to be different.

How else can you explain such a huge drop-off? It can't just be bad luck or sequencing, can it?

First, with that BABIP there is some bad luck. 
 

Second, in general a player will say the right thing a lot more often than he’ll do the right thing.

So, which seems more likely:

A) After a very successful year, he consciously tried to do something different?

B) He is still trying to do what he did last year, but he’s not doing it correctly.
 

I’m taking B.

Also, I looked up some numbers that suggest this year he’s swinging more and chasing more with runners in scoring position, which is probably the exact thing he was talking about avoiding in the quote you referred to. It makes sense to me that he’s slumping so he puts more pressure on himself to come through in big spots and that makes it even worse  

 

[Tyler]

Time to move on from Ward. 

[Slegnaac]

18 minutes ago, Tyler said:

Time to move on from Ward. 

5 Outfielders on the 40 man roster, and one of them just got hurt.  Another one is being used as an infielder.  The math says that isn't going to happen. 

[Jason]

25 minutes ago, Tyler said:

Time to move on from Ward. 

 

5 minutes ago, Slegnaac said:

5 Outfielders on the 40 man roster, and one of them just got hurt.  Another one is being used as an infielder.  The math says that isn't going to happen. 

It's definitely time to lower expectations, by a lot.