OC Register: Angels still searching for right bullpen mix

[AngelsWin.com]

ST. LOUIS — Perhaps no statistic defines the first month of the Angels’ season more than this one: The Angels have had a lead in 24 of their 31 games, but they are 15-14.

Thanks to a major league-worst seven blown saves, the Angels’ potentially great start has been a month of missed opportunities. It has brought renewed focus to their bullpen issues.

General Manager Perry Minasian has turned over the personnel in the bullpen more than any other part of the team in his three winters on the job, but it still seems to be in need of repair.

Minasian’s first deal in November 2020 was acquiring closer Raisel Iglesias from the Cincinnati Reds. In 2021, he re-signed Iglesias for $58 million and committed $14 million to Ryan Tepera and $17 million to Aaron Loup.

Minasian traded Iglesias last summer, but this winter he signed Carlos Estévez for $13.5 million and Matt Moore for $7.55 million.

Iglesias (a 3.07 ERA in an Angels uniform), Tepera (4.11), Loup (4.03), Moore (1.26) and Estévez (1.32) have solid cumulative numbers, although Angels fans are certainly stinging from memorable slumps for Tepera, Loup and Iglesias.

In the big picture, the bullpen issues aren’t for a lack of investment.

A few highly-paid relievers – even if they are good – won’t make a good bullpen unless there is a supporting cast of seven or eight bargain pitchers getting the job done around them.

That’s where Minasian has failed.

“We have to do a better job of building our own,” he said. “We are hoping as we go along and continue to have drafts and international classes, we’ll be able to do that, plus a combination of free agents, minor league signs. But the emphasis is on the guys that we develop.”

There is no one recipe for building a good bullpen, but the Angels are Exhibit A that it’s not as easy as going shopping in the winter and picking out the pitchers who were the best the year before. All of Minasian’s free agent relievers had been good in the prior season.

So how do you build a good, deep, bullpen?

An analysis of the top eight bullpens from last year (by ERA) shows that most of their key pitchers were, essentially, unknowns before they were acquired.

A breakdown of the six most-used relievers on each of those teams shows that 22% were homegrown, 17% were signed as major league free agents and 17% came in trades as major leaguers. The largest segment – 44% of them – were picked off the scrap heap, for lack of a better term. They were minor leaguers in trades, minor league free agents, waiver claims or Rule 5 picks.

The Seattle Mariners, for example, got right-hander Paul Sewald as a minor league free agent, and right-handers Andres Munoz and Erik Swanson as minor leaguers in trades. They each pitched at least 55 innings with an ERA under 3.00 last season.

The Tampa Bay Rays (four), Dodgers, New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves and Cleveland Guardians (three apiece) all had top-eight bullpens last year while getting at least three of their most-used relievers off the scrap heap.

The Angels, by contrast, have been unsuccessful lately in finding hidden treasures.

Right-hander Jimmy Herget was signed as a minor league free agent in the middle of the 2021 season. Left-hander José Quijada was a waiver claim by former GM Billy Eppler.

Otherwise, the Angels have been forced to rely on expensive major league free agents, who are generally over 30, and a farm system that has been unproductive. Trading for established major league relievers is tough without a surplus of prospects to trade.

The Angels are still hoping to find some gems among pitchers like Jacob Webb, Jonathan Holder, Zack Weiss, Gerardo Reyes, Cam Vieux and Chris Devenski, who was just promoted to the majors over the weekend. They already swung and missed on Justin Garza, who was designated for assignment.

“That’s why you try to sign a bunch,” Minasian said. “You try to bring in people every year. Do you always hit on those? No, but obviously that’s an area where you can improve your bullpen.”

How are other teams more successful at identifying which unheralded relievers can blossom?

“It’s all shapes and sizes,” Minasian said. “Different stuff. If there was a blueprint, everyone would do it.”

It’s also worth pointing out that Minasian firmly believes the bullpen has received too much of the blame for what’s happened this season.

In many cases, the defense has let down the bullpen. Angels relievers have allowed 10 unearned runs, tied for second most in the majors. The offense has in many cases failed to add runs to a lead, giving the bullpen little margin for error.

“It’s easy to look at blown saves,” Minasian said, “but there’s a lot that goes into it.”

In a vacuum, the bullpen ranks eighth in the majors with a 3.17 ERA.

Eight of the 110 earned runs the Angels have allowed were charged to starters while relievers were on the mound. Angels relievers have allowed 46% of the runners left by starters to score. The major league average is 35%.

Because of the impact of inherited runners, a better way to measure a bullpen is how efficiently the relievers get outs. The Angels rank 10th with a 1.18 WHIP. They rank seventh with an opponents’ batting average of .217 and fourth with an opponents’ OPS of .607.

Those numbers give Minasian hope that the current group will hold leads more effectively going forward, and it would help if the starters pitched more innings, the defense was better and the offense scored more runs.

“We’ve had a lead in a lot of games, which is a good sign,” Minasian said. “Now we have to find ways to close out those games, not just on the mound, but defensively, offensively, base running. It’s a team effort. A total team effort. We have to do everything better. It’s no secret.”

UP NEXT

Angels (LHP Patrick Sandoval, 2-1, 3.16) vs. Cardinals (LHP Steven Matz, 0-3, 6.23), Tuesday, 4:45 p.m., Bally Sports West, 830 AM

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[TroutField]

Some very encouraging numbers towards the end of the article. Hopefully the bullpen can figure it out, also some good points about the offense letting us down and the defense not being where it should be. 
 

seems like some bad luck and not being to get those clutch outs late in the game so far. 

[Angel Oracle]

On the defense side, what is the solution?

One I can think of is trading Rengifo.   His defense is truly mediocre.

A second is Walsh finally returning.

[gurn67]

Part of that mix should be only using Loup in blowouts.

[Make Angels Great Again]

Haven't a majority of the un-earned runs been due to Rendon errors? I imagine that has to be a bit of an anomaly since he's normally very solid.

[Angel Oracle]

6 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

Haven't a majority of the un-earned runs been due to Rendon errors? I imagine that has to be a bit of an anomaly since he's normally very solid.

11 of the 17 errors are by Rengifo (4), Rendon (4), and Thaiss (3).

Urshela (2) is the only other guy with more than 1 error.

[Angels 1961]

It's nice to look at numbers for bullpen as a whole. Breaking down individual numbers and you can find weak spots. Starters going 5 inn is also a problem as weak spots in bullpen will be exposed. Putting Silseth in relief role shows halos are searching for help. After seven losing seasons this seems like a make-or-break year for Angels. Having your best 26 players on roster very important.

[BTH]

3 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

On the defense side, what is the solution?

Pretty easy: bring up a good defensive infielder (Velazquez, Fletcher, or Soto) and get rid of a bad defensive infielder (Rengifo or Lamb).

Edited May 1, 2023 by Trendon

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

On the defense side, what is the solution?

Neto is a big part of it. 

They went from having no SS to a pretty good one. I think when Walsh comes back he'll help too. Rendon shouldn't be as bad as he's been, so in theory he'll be better.

[Duren, Duren]

Pitching and defense go together. An error or failure to make a play in the field puts more pressure on pitchers. Especially relievers, who come in at critical times in games. Often with men on base. 

It used to be that the situation would determine who came in from the bullpen. Pitchers with sinkers to induce ground balls for a double play. High velocity specialists trying for strikeouts with a runner on third and less than two out. But you needed quality depth to be able to mix and match so carefully. Especially with reliable middle relievers to bridge the gap between starter and closer.

I thought that Herget did a good job in that role last year. This year it's been problematic, but starting to sort itself out lately. 

Speaking of defense, Rengifo and Rendon have been the cause of some extra problems that pitchers eventually had to deal with. Inner diamond defense is such an under rated factor. Old Simmons and young Fletcher may have been the last better than average pivot combo on the team. 

Neto looks like a very good fielder, but still with a small sample size. Second base still lacks a solid everyday dependable partner for Neto. 

Rengifo last year maybe over achieved. But was a positive to have because of switch hitting and fielding versatility. But he really isn't good enough to play regularly. Time will tell how he shapes up. But he looks like he's regressed in the infield and at bat.

It's bad enough Rendon has disappointed offensively. But defense was supposed to be a strength of his game. Maybe he's just not the same after his injuries and long layoff. So it could be that he needs more time. Or that permanent decline has set in. A huge concern though going forward. 

Anyways, I see some modest incremental improvement in the bullpen since that terrible first few weeks. Silseth has potential to be that strikeout specialist. Davidson is encouraging so far. Everyone else need to be more consistent in their roles. 

[Revad]

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Neto is a big part of it. 

They went from having no SS to a pretty good one. I think when Walsh comes back he'll help too. Rendon shouldn't be as bad as he's been, so in theory he'll be better.

Jeff:  is there an injury issue that explains Rendon’s lack of power and defensive woes?

[BTH]

8 hours ago, AngelsWin.com said:

“We have to do a better job of building our own,” he said. “We are hoping as we go along and continue to have drafts and international classes, we’ll be able to do that, plus a combination of free agents, minor league signs. But the emphasis is on the guys that we develop.”

This is a key point, but I feel like the different baseballs being used in AA are having a negative impact.

If the pitchers in AA are using different baseballs, how are you supposed to take anything away from their performance? They could be better because of the different baseballs, or they could be worse.

It seems like this should be a huge concern to the Angels, but it doesn't seem like they're doing anything about it. Obviously, they can't single-handily get MLB to stop using the baseballs. But why not promote guys like Ingram and Soriano to AAA so they can use the MLB baseball? I guess they're more concerned about the elevation affecting their pitch shapes and movement?

It's so dumb that there's no real place for the Angels to develop pitchers because AAA is in high elevation, AA is using different baseballs, and all the levels below that have competition that doesn't simulate anything close to MLB hitters.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Trendon

[Jeff Fletcher]

58 minutes ago, Revad said:

Jeff:  is there an injury issue that explains Rendon’s lack of power and defensive woes?

Maybe. Maybe he’s just old now. 

[Angel Oracle]

33 minutes ago, Trendon said:

This is a key point, but I feel like the different baseballs being used in AA are having a negative impact.

If the pitchers in AA are using different baseballs, how are you supposed to take anything away from their performance? They could be better because of the different baseballs, or they could be worse.

It seems like this should be a huge concern to the Angels, but it doesn't seem like they're doing anything about it. Obviously, they can't single-handily get MLB to stop using the baseballs. But why not promote guys like Ingram and Soriano to AAA so they can use the MLB baseball? I guess they're more concerned about the elevation affecting their pitch shapes and movement?

It's so dumb that there's no real place for the Angels to develop pitchers because AAA is in high elevation, AA is using different baseballs, and all the levels below that have competition that doesn't simulate anything close to MLB hitters.

Is SLC truly that good to the Halos?

 

[Angel Oracle]

Just now, Jeff Fletcher said:

Maybe. Maybe he’s just old now. 

Yep, Arte Moreno should have never signed him.    I was 50-50 on the signing, looks like the latter 50 was spot on.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Revad said:

Jeff:  is there an injury issue that explains Rendon’s lack of power and defensive woes?

 

59 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Maybe. Maybe he’s just old now. 

I hope it's just a product of him coming back from his injuries/surgeries, and not aging or a new injury.

[BTH]

59 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Yep, Arte Moreno should have never signed him.    I was 50-50 on the signing, looks like the latter 50 was spot on.

one thing I'll never understand is how Rendon got 7/$245M.

Admittedly, I was never following Rendon's market as closely (because I was focused on SPs like Cole at the time)

The Rendon thing happened so fast, basically in the hours around the Cole signing. The money was an after thought, but Arte probably way overpaid given that he got Boras/Rendon to agree to the deal right then and there.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Is SLC truly that good to the Halos?

 

they don't have a choice

every team made a 10-year agreement minimum with their affiliates when MiLB was contracted to 120 teams.

[TroutField]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

one thing I'll never understand is how Rendon got 7/$245M.

Admittedly, I was never following Rendon's market as closely (because I was focused on SPs like Cole at the time)

The Rendon thing happened so fast, basically in the hours around the Cole signing. The money was an after thought, but Arte probably way overpaid given that he got Boras/Rendon to agree to the deal right then and there.

He was coming off a 1.010 OPS season with great defense at the hot corner. 3rd in mvp voting, all star, and World Series champion.
 

I mean I don’t think anybody anticipated such a steep decline, his 2020 shortened season was great. And then 21,22, and 23(so far) happened… 

[Docwaukee]

the problem is that the Angels are in high leverage just way too often.  

The Yanks led the league last year with 518 batters faced in high leverage.  

In the last 8 years, a team has only topped 500 faced 4 times.  

The Angels are on pace for 620 batters faced in high leverage this year.  

I'm not sure any bullpen can sustain that sort of stress.  I've been giving them crap for not using their best guys but that's not really fair on my part.  Granted, some of it is self imposed but at the end of the day I just can't imagine any reason for this to continue.  

There is really no rhyme or reason to it as far as I can tell.  

It's just kinda crazy.  

[Angel Oracle]

6 hours ago, TroutField said:

He was coming off a 1.010 OPS season with great defense at the hot corner. 3rd in mvp voting, all star, and World Series champion.
 

I mean I don’t think anybody anticipated such a steep decline, his 2020 shortened season was great. And then 21,22, and 23(so far) happened… 

Except, they should have learned their lesson with Pujols.

[Stradling]

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Except, they should have learned their lesson with Pujols.

Never sign another free agent to a long term deal because of Albert. Makes sense. 

[Inside Pitch]

14 hours ago, Revad said:

Jeff:  is there an injury issue that explains Rendon’s lack of power and defensive woes?

His launch angle was sitting below 10% until very recently -- its kind of shot up the last 7-10 days.  His average exit velocity is at a career high while his max exit velocity has been at a career low.  So that may be either age or an indication of his still getting back to normal..

Baseball Savant has a data point called meatball, which is what you think it is.  While he's seen tyhe same number of meatball pitches as in the past he's swing at them about 5% less often, so that may be a factor as well.

[Angels 1961]

Dominic Leone is now a free agent.

[Angels 1961]

17 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Maybe. Maybe he’s just old now. 

Rendon has a bad hip. He is carrying too much money in his back pocket. Blame Arte