Are you ready for Ohtani to be baseball's first Half a Billion Dollar Man?

[Angelsjunky]

With the premier market set by the Judge contract (9 x $40M = $360M), we have a baseline for Ohtani. Judge will be 31 in 2023, so the contract covers age 31-39. Ohtani will be 29 in 2024, so two years younger.

Judge just had the 18th best position player season in baseball history according to fWAR, and the best since Bonds. It was his second MVP award in his six-year career, with four very good-but-not-great seasons in-between.

I'm guessing the Yankees don't expect him to repeat his 11.4 WAR performance, but they most definitely expect him to have 8 WAR seasons left in the tank. He was just so good in 2022, that it is hard imagining him falling back to his 5+ WAR level of the previous four years. But it is a rather massive contract for a 31-year old, no matter how good, especially with his injury history (he missed 50-60 games in 2018-19, and 32 games in 2020 - half the short season).

SO $40M a year, age 31-39. I suppose what Ohtani gets depends somewhat on how he does in 2023, but he's already compiled 17.5 WAR over the last two seasons, setting a very high performance level. Assuming he's healthy and produces at least 7 WAR, I don't see his value dipping all that much. Even if he has a non-longterm injury, he'll still get a massive pay-day.

So assuming a 7+ WAR season, I'm guessing he'll get at least the same AAV as Judge ($40M) and at least one more year. o, at the very least, 10/$400M. But that's really a baseline -- again, assuming he's mostly healthy - and he could get more.

If he settles in at the 7-8 WAR level, I think he gets closer to 10/$400M. If he is as good or better than 2022, in the 9-10 WAR range, then closer to 10/$450M or something weird like 11/$462M (11 x $42M). If he combines the best of 2021 and 2022--the hitting of the former and the pitching of the latter, and adds a few starts and even improves a bit, with a 10-11 WAR season--then all best are off and I wouldn't be entirely surprised if he becomes baseball's first half a billion dollar man...10-12 years, $500M or so.

 

 

[Drink More Yakult]

12 years/$500 million

[ten ocho recon scout]

I think Ohtani absolutely gets 5. And if he's feeling it, we should ABSOLUTELY pay it. 

500 million is insane. But someone will get it eventually anyway. If there were any case where it was warranted, it's Ohtani.

[beatlesrule]

Ohtani is not going to continue to pitch and hit for the rest of his career. If you sign him for 10 years, he will probably become either a full time batter or pitcher and in like 3 years or so. Right now, he is just a DH as a hitter so you don't pay a DH 500 million. If he decides to just pitch, again, he is not worth 500 million. Maybe Ohtani does continue to be 2 way player at a high level for the next 8-10 years but it's never been done before so I highly doubt it happens. I am not sure how long he can continue to be this good doing 2 things.

[ukyah]

i'd bet if the angels were winning and they offered him 10/400 or similarly he'd take it. i just don't think he's the every last dollar guy. i think he's already shown himself to care significantly about his happiness with where he's playing and his sense of loyalty. i think a huge contract is probably enough. i doubt he cares much about being the highest paid player in mlb, which brings to mind his vision board from his youth. was being the highest paid mlb player on his board?

[Sully151]

It doesn’t matter if I am ready for Ohtani to be the first Half Billion Dollar Man. Are the new owners ready?

[floplag]

Ill be honest, im torn.  If signing him negates other possibilities then maybe its time to cut bait and get what we can.
As many here suggest we have limits, that if we spend to much in one place we have only penning for others... IF this is true im not sure i want this and think we would be better of dealing him and moving on.
The only way i makes sense is if new ownership is willing to go beyond those limits that Arte would not.
I hope they are, dont get me wrong, i hope they are and we do what it takes to move forward with him and fillin the current needs, but if blowing 40M on him means being unable to fill other holes, then at the end of the day its a business. 
It seems a "cant have it both ways" issue.  

[Angelsjunky]

I'm torn too, @floplag. On one hand, he's Ohtani. On the other, it is hard to justify a third $35M+ AAV, regardless of who the player is. Not to mention that would literally be $75-80M locked into two players for 8+ years (and $100-110M for three for the next four).

The problem I see is that the Angels like to spend on top guys like they're a $250M payroll club. It is one thing to spend $100M of that on three players if you have another $150M to fill out the rest of the other, quite another if you only have $80M more. Unless you've got a great farm system and/or are a Billy Beane, it is hard to fill 23 roster spots with $80M and still be a contender.

 

Meaning, the Angels spend on premium guys like the Dodgers do, but don't have the farm or payroll like the Dodgers have.

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[Deek]

10 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

With the premier market set by the Judge contract (9 x $40M = $360M), we have a baseline for Ohtani. Judge will be 31 in 2023, so the contract covers age 31-39. Ohtani will be 29 in 2024, so two years younger.

Judge just had the 18th best position player season in baseball history according to fWAR, and the best since Bonds. It was his second MVP award in his six-year career, with four very good-but-not-great seasons in-between.

I'm guessing the Yankees don't expect him to repeat his 11.4 WAR performance, but they most definitely expect him to have 8 WAR seasons left in the tank. He was just so good in 2022, that it is hard imagining him falling back to his 5+ WAR level of the previous four years. But it is a rather massive contract for a 31-year old, no matter how good, especially with his injury history (he missed 50-60 games in 2018-19, and 32 games in 2020 - half the short season).

SO $40M a year, age 31-39. I suppose what Ohtani gets depends somewhat on how he does in 2023, but he's already compiled 17.5 WAR over the last two seasons, setting a very high performance level. Assuming he's healthy and produces at least 7 WAR, I don't see his value dipping all that much. Even if he has a non-longterm injury, he'll still get a massive pay-day.

So assuming a 7+ WAR season, I'm guessing he'll get at least the same AAV as Judge ($40M) and at least one more year. o, at the very least, 10/$400M. But that's really a baseline -- again, assuming he's mostly healthy - and he could get more.

If he settles in at the 7-8 WAR level, I think he gets closer to 10/$400M. If he is as good or better than 2022, in the 9-10 WAR range, then closer to 10/$450M or something weird like 11/$462M (11 x $42M). If he combines the best of 2021 and 2022--the hitting of the former and the pitching of the latter, and adds a few starts and even improves a bit, with a 10-11 WAR season--then all best are off and I wouldn't be entirely surprised if he becomes baseball's first half a billion dollar man...10-12 years, $500M or so.

 

 

With all due respect AJ - I guess you have to start with some baseline... but as far as I know, WAR stats don't consider Ohtani's pitching impact...  I think his value baseline starts in absolute terms in both an offensive perspective AND a pitching perspective:

 

If you compare Ohtani's impact, on the offensive side alone, to his peers (and don't even consider that he's no slouch on defense at 1B/OF) - wouldn't he EASILY slot in as a bargain at $30M/yr...?? (Think about relative value: He's not worth $10M less than Judge/yr or $8M less than Rendon or $2M less than Stanton or Cabrera (both old DHs) per year)...!

 

Add on top of that his value solely as a pitcher the last two years - and he's a bargain at $30M/yr...!!! (he's not $13M less than Verlander/Scherzer or $6M less than Cole)....!!!

 

Combine those values and that's a BARGAIN at $60M...!!!

 

And all of the: "he-can't-do-both-forever"... sure... okay... but he is now... and he's likely to be able to do both for at least half of a 10 year contract given his age - he'll always hit... and if/when he shows some wear and tear as an SP - you can move to the bully as a top-flight reliever (with his make-up - I wouldn't bet against him as a nails closer!)... that kind of flexibility exists - all of nowhere...

 

Dude has no comp...

[Taylor]

Seeing Ohtani in another uniform would honestly probably sever my interest in baseball.

[Deek]

10 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Seeing Ohtani in another uniform would honestly probably sever my interest in baseball.

Angels baseball anyway...

[Dtwncbad]

I hope he gets whatever is necessary to stay an Angel.

But most importantly, I hope the next owner of the Angels is down with paying up aggressively with no limits to stack the roster with enough talent to win rings.  I am not saying strictly to rely on buying free agents to win.  I am saying pump whatever money is necessary into the team to win, including going straight after the correct high impact players that fit an immediate need (to supplement a good farm system and player development).

I am a little fatigued by every conversation built on a premise that “the Angels just can’t afford to. . .”

The right owner can afford to pay much more in salaries, including paying/managing the luxury taxes.

Thats what I want right now.  If the Angels got the right owner, it would also mean a better farm system and player development, so that means they wouldn’t forever have to have the highest payroll.

The depth of financial resources and attitude about winning of the new ownership is THE most important thing right now.

I want to give Ohtani anything he wants with no hesitation.  If I am worried that paying Ohtani will paralyze the team going forward, then all this really means is they don’t have the right owner.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Dtwncbad

[Angelsjunky]

18 minutes ago, Deek said:

With all due respect AJ - I guess you have to start with some baseline... but as far as I know, WAR stats don't consider Ohtani's pitching impact...  I think his value baseline starts in absolute terms in both an offensive perspective AND a pitching perspective:

Ohtani's 17.5 fWAR over 2021-22 includes both pitching and hitting. As a hitter, he was at 5.0 in 2021, 3.8 in 2022; as a pitcher, he was at 3.0 in 2021 and 5.6 in 2022. So the averages for both years are 4.4 as a hitter, 4.3 as a pitcher...8.7 total.

Now I think you could argue that you can't simply add his hitting and pitching value like that. On the other hand, it could be argued that there's more downsides to combining both elements than having two separate players. For one, if you have a 4.4 hitter and a 4.3 pitcher, if one gets injured, you only have to replace one. Whereas if Ohtani gets injured, you might have to replace both sides. 

 

[Tank]

9 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I hope he gets whatever is necessary to stay an Angel.

this. this is all that's necessary. whether or not that number is 500 million isn't important.

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm torn too, @floplag. On one hand, he's Ohtani. On the other, it is hard to justify a third $35M+ AAV, regardless of who the player is. Not to mention that would literally be $75-80M locked into two players for 8+ years (and $100-110M for three for the next four).

The problem I see is that the Angels like to spend on top guys like they're a $250M payroll club. It is one thing to spend $100M of that on three players if you have another $150M to fill out the rest of the other, quite another if you only have $80M more. Unless you've got a great farm system and/or are a Billy Beane, it is hard to fill 23 roster spots with $80M and still be a contender.

 

Meaning, the Angels spend on premium guys like the Dodgers do, but don't have the farm or payroll like the Dodgers have.

 

Its a double edged sword, when you dont have the farm to make aquisitions, spending is your best/only real option.
The org needs to decide if its a player, or it isnt.  We put ourselves on this path then seemingly got scared and pulled back, it makes no sense. 
If we were not willing to do this we never should have signed Trout or Rendon, an we certainly shouldnt be looking at 40M for Ohtani or 30Mish for a top SS.  We should be looking to trade those guys. 
For me this is a pivotal off season for the franchise, we either step up and be players, or we go back to the small market angels and concede the market to the Dodgers once and for all. 

[Taylor]

These owners are billionaires. They could make the payroll $1B and still have enough to live a very lavish life. 

[Dtwncbad]

35 minutes ago, Taylor said:

These owners are billionaires. They could make the payroll $1B and still have enough to live a very lavish life. 

To just pull it back into the realistic numbers, the right next owner could easily roll through 5 years of $275m (or even more) payrolls to:

a). Jump on maximizing the immediate win window with Trout and Ohtani, and

b). Also spend that 5 years revamping the entire minors and player development system to have a talent machine pumping out All-Stars thereafter

Win now, and also have a win-producing machine going forward.  That’s what I want.

Let’s go ahead and BE the team everyone hates!!!!!!!!

Edited December 8, 2022 by Dtwncbad

[CanadianHalo]

Some of you get way to emotionally attached to these players

If Ohtani’s contract is going to handcuff new ownership then please trade him

Unless new ownership is ready to start spending like the Padres I want no part of a massive Ohtani contract. 

I said the exact same for Trout. Looking back, trading Trout would’ve been the smart move

[Angel Dog and Beer]

それは私のお金ではありません =

Sore wa watashi no okanede wa arimasen = 

"It's not my money"

[Dtwncbad]

4 minutes ago, Angel Dog and Beer said:

それは私のお金ではありません =

Sore wa watashi no okanede wa arimasen = 

"It's not my money"

The only tattoo I would every get would be the Japanese symbol for “It’s a Japanese symbol.”

 

[Deek]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Ohtani's 17.5 fWAR over 2021-22 includes both pitching and hitting. As a hitter, he was at 5.0 in 2021, 3.8 in 2022; as a pitcher, he was at 3.0 in 2021 and 5.6 in 2022. So the averages for both years are 4.4 as a hitter, 4.3 as a pitcher...8.7 total.

Now I think you could argue that you can't simply add his hitting and pitching value like that. On the other hand, it could be argued that there's more downsides to combining both elements than having two separate players. For one, if you have a 4.4 hitter and a 4.3 pitcher, if one gets injured, you only have to replace one. Whereas if Ohtani gets injured, you might have to replace both sides. 

 

Sorry missed the fWAR reference... but agree with you - with Ohtani as the lone "pilot program", I think fWAR has room for improvement...

 

wrt downside of combining elements vs. two seperate players... I get where you're going and I don't disagree.... but don't discount the added value of having a whole other roster spot to address another need on your roster....

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

These owners are billionaires. They could make the payroll $1B and still have enough to live a very lavish life. 

 

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

Let’s go ahead and BE the team everyone hates!!!!!!!!

So says the fan-bases of 25 other teams, yet why is it that only a few franchises actually actualize this sentiment?

I think the key is in Taylor's comment, but to follow-up on that, most owners don't really care about baseball, they care about profit. And even if they care about baseball, it is not their first love: money is. If you're a billionaire who bought a franchise not because you love baseball, but because you want to see your net worth go up, then you'd probably rather make $300M in profit and field a shitty team, then $200M in profit and field a great team. 

But that isn't the only problem. The other is that we peons tend to imagine the ultra-wealthy as somehow smarter than us, that if you have a billion dollars it means you're good at everything - like running a baseball franchise. All we can know for certain about billionaires is that they are good at making money (or at least, keeping the money they inherited). That doesn't mean that their intelligence or creativity extends beyond economics. Allegedly Arte loves (or loved) baseball, but he certainly doesn't know how to run a baseball franchise.

[Angelsjunky]

Just now, Deek said:

Sorry missed the fWAR reference... but agree with you - with Ohtani as the lone "pilot program", I think fWAR has room for improvement...

 

wrt downside of combining elements vs. two seperate players... I get where you're going and I don't disagree.... but don't discount the added value of having a whole other roster spot to address another need on your roster....

Yep, which is why I think, in the end, the various specifics are a wash, and Ohtani basically is as valuable as his (total) WAR says he is: meaning, the best player in the game over the last two years, and second best in 2022. But he's not "actually" better than that. So you pay him like what he'll be in 2023: A 29-year old 8+ WAR mega-star with a special talent that nobody else has. Oh wait, that sounds like another guy on the Angel's roster..

Which bring me back to the original point. I think Ohtani gets what Judge gets, but a bit more time and money. 10/$400M would probably the lowest I would expect - and that only if he has a marked worse (but not bad) 2023 season. If he repeats or exceeds the last two years, it might be anything from 10/$450M to 12/$600M.

[Taylor]

26 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

So says the fan-bases of 25 other teams, yet why is it that only a few franchises actually actualize this sentiment?

I think the key is in Taylor's comment, but to follow-up on that, most owners don't really care about baseball, they care about profit. And even if they care about baseball, it is not their first love: money is. If you're a billionaire who bought a franchise not because you love baseball, but because you want to see your net worth go up, then you'd probably rather make $300M in profit and field a shitty team, then $200M in profit and field a great team. 

But that isn't the only problem. The other is that we peons tend to imagine the ultra-wealthy as somehow smarter than us, that if you have a billion dollars it means you're good at everything - like running a baseball franchise. All we can know for certain about billionaires is that they are good at making money (or at least, keeping the money they inherited). That doesn't mean that their intelligence or creativity extends beyond economics. Allegedly Arte loves (or loved) baseball, but he certainly doesn't know how to run a baseball franchise.

@Lou and @Blarg are triggered.

[Tank]

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

These owners are billionaires. They could make the payroll $1B and still have enough to live a very lavish life. 

salary is paid by the angels as a corporation, not directly out of the owners personal income.