Jo Adell's outlook

[Angelsjunky]

11 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

But sure, punt on the kid.

I don't think a single person has said "punt on the kid." Actually, look at the poll: Only 3 of 63 are ready to call him a bust.

That said, a significant percentage--23 of 63--see it as very unlikely he'll be more than a 1-2 WAR player, so maybe that's what you mean by "punting." But that word implies giving up on him, and I don't think anyone is ready to do that.

But I think as @Jay just said, it is clear that he was a bit overrated as a prospect. Fangraphs had him as high as 65 FV and top 5 in baseball. BA had him as high as #3. Those rankings imply a future star. 65 FV is Julio Rodriguez, and Adell is no Julio Rodriguez. 

And sure, at 23 he's got time to at least become a good player. I voted 50-50 because it is unclear at this point what he'll become -- and after three partial seasons, that's a bit worrisome. And it isn't unreasonable to be disappointed and worried based upon what we've all seen over the last few seasons--and more so, what we haven't seen, which is a lack of significant progress, a rather shocking lack of solid baseball fundamentals from a former top prospect and a seeming inability to make the necessary adjustments to address his problems - problems that should have been addressed years ago, or at least over the last five years of his minor league career.

So while I don't think you can call a 23 year old a bust yet, I also don't think it is crazy to be disappointed and frustrated with Adell's performance so far. 

 

Edited August 18, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[CaliAngel]

On 8/16/2022 at 10:40 PM, Stradling said:

Through his age 25 season is how much time you give him. If we released Ward after age 25 then that would be three seasons ago. So you are giving him a fair chance and yet still less time than Ward. 

That's just great, so we have 2 more seasons of him sucking until some of you are willing to let him go SMFH. 

The cornerstone of any championship caliber ballclub, folks!

[tdawg87]

4 hours ago, CaliAngel said:

That's just great, so we have 2 more seasons of him sucking until some of you are willing to let him go SMFH. 

The cornerstone of any championship caliber ballclub, folks!

Remember when you were making these kinds of posts about Rengifo?

Pepperidge Farm remembers.

[Blarg]

6 hours ago, CaliAngel said:

That's just great, so we have 2 more seasons of him sucking until some of you are willing to let him go SMFH. 

The cornerstone of any championship caliber ballclub, folks!

Like Max Muncy?

[Stradling]

7 hours ago, CaliAngel said:

That's just great, so we have 2 more seasons of him sucking until some of you are willing to let him go SMFH. 

The cornerstone of any championship caliber ballclub, folks!

It’s weird that you are willing to give up on a 23 year old but love the 30 year old AAA catcher who’s worse than the 23 year old. And yes he’s worse. 

[Angelsfan1984]

Maybe the angels can change his birth certificate. If he was only 14 this kid would be a monster prospect 

[Inside Pitch]

12 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I don't think a single person has said "punt on the kid." Actually, look at the poll: Only 3 of 63 are ready to call him a bust.

You're choosing to focus on a throwaway comment said in support of a post responding to a person asking "what did scouts ever see in him" instead of the paragraphs I've offered explaining my opinion on the matter.

Jo Adell is exactly the same player today as he was when he he was first called up.  A player with tools so loud people ignore the equally loud holes in his game. 

Adell remains high risk high reward, some might say boon or "bust".   That's a fair statement despite the "implication" of the word "bust".   Sometimes its best to not focus on a single word or phrase in favor of paying greater heed to the actual message.

12 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

That said, a significant percentage--23 of 63--see it as very unlikely he'll be more than a 1-2 WAR player, so maybe that's what you mean by "punting." But that word implies giving up on him, and I don't think anyone is ready to do that.

If people want to follow suit and obsess over the phrase "punt on him" that's fine. 

I can understand why some might want to try to paint my comment as hyperbolic instead of having to own up to their own faulty opinion of what Adell was/is. As I have said above, my opinion of Adell remains the same largely because I watched him play and none of what's happening comes as a shock to me.  In some ways I'm surprised it hasn't been worse.  I've advocated for him playing the OF in protective gear at times only partially in jest.

12 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

But I think as @Jay just said, it is clear that he was a bit overrated as a prospect. Fangraphs had him as high as 65 FV and top 5 in baseball. BA had him as high as #3. Those rankings imply a future star. 65 FV is Julio Rodriguez, and Adell is no Julio Rodriguez. 

Guess what, FG got it wrong -- and that's not not really a slam on them, it's the nature of the beast.

Take a look at their top 20 in 2019...  Forrest Whitley and Victor Robles were both 65 FVs.  Nick Senzel, Taylor Trammel, Keston Huira, Alex Kirriloff, Brendon McKay, Carter Keirboom and Jo Adell were all given 60 FV grades. They hung a 55 FV on Cristian Pache (upped it to 60 the next season) -- Don't look now but 50% of their top 2019 top 20 has essentially shit the bed (to date), when compared to their projected values.  Meanwhile the highest FV they ever gave to Juan Soto was a 50 -- the same exact value they gave to Jahmai Jones. 

Nobody that ever watched Soto play ever thought Jam Jones was his equal.  Watching them play is key.

12 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

So while I don't think you can call a 23 year old a bust yet, I also don't think it is crazy to be disappointed and frustrated with Adell's performance so far. 

It's easy not to be frustrated or disappointed with the player if only the focus had been on what he was actually doing and not what others were writing or what his park inflated triple slash numbers were.  I get that most people don't care enough to do the MiLBTV thing, but it really does help keep one's expectations in check .vs just looking at the stats.

If I did feel the need to point fingers anywhere or voice disappointment/frustration I'd aim that at the organization.  They have either failed to address/correct the obvious holes in his game or at the very least whatever they have done to try to fix those issues has yet to materialize.  Maybe they believe the best thing for him is to see MLB pitching and work on his defense under the watch of MLB coaches and that's fine.  He's gonna take his lumps, IMHO he's positioning himself better on throws and his side to side game remains decent.  That once again is more a testament to his athleticism than any real improvements he's made reading the ball off the bat.

You know who I was "frustrated and disappointed" with? -- Marsh.  To me Adell is the same guy he's always been with the same glaring weaknesses and strengths, but Marsh seemingly regressed.  The strengths he showed in the minors took a step backwards outside of his defense.  He was being tentative while at the same time becoming somewhat pull happy.  He didn't look ANYTHING like the player I watched in the minors.. 

[Stradling]

10 hours ago, CaliAngel said:

That's just great, so we have 2 more seasons of him sucking until some of you are willing to let him go SMFH. 

The cornerstone of any championship caliber ballclub, folks!

You should vote in this poll.  

[HanfordGuy]

On 8/16/2022 at 4:53 PM, Brandon said:

Brandon Wood v.2

On a side note, we need that gif or video of Barbaro where it says, "Outlook...." and shows him in the tractor and says, ".....not good"

Will this do?

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

I get that most people don't care enough to do the MiLBTV thing, but it really does help keep one's expectations in check .vs just looking at the stats.

I don't have the MiLBTV subscription (the Trash Pandas game last night might change that) but I did go to plenty of games in San Berdo when they were the High A affiliate. Not quite as interested in low A ball, not much talent filtering so it's all over the place for picking out talent.

That said, I watched Adell in High A and was impressed with is play at the time. I posted here before he looked more like a guy that was on a MLB rehab start rather than a 19 year old working his way up the ladder.

In retrospect I don't remember him having any challenging hits come his way and he fielded everything cleanly. The speed he had really helped shrink the field so fly balls Taylor Ward watch drop right now, Adell would get to easily. His hitting was simply adaptation to the talent level he was at and he did it rather quickly, so much so they promoted him way too early. 

And that was the start of the problem. Lost in all that athleticism was so much he still needed to learn but rushing up to the next level his focus was always his hitting because that is what most people focus on, like you said, the triple slash line.

The next time I saw him was in the AFL and he was struggling, more so than Marsh. His defense was on display because the hits were coming off bats at MLB exit velocity, not High A. And the pitching was as well, at MLB velocity and break and he wasn't up to that speed yet. And yet they promoted him the following year to the MLB club, way before he was ready and that wasn't helpful for his growth either.

Where does he go from here? I have to think the rest of the season of play is what he might as well do at the MLB level and stockpile all of that information and spend the winter at Driveline seeing if his notebook of holes to fill in can be check marked. What he brings to Spring Training will determine if he take the field in Anaheim or Salt Lake.

I like the guy so I hope it's Anaheim. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

On 8/16/2022 at 3:48 PM, ThisismineScios said:

He has obviously shown signs of improving both in the field and at the plate the last few weeks. What I can’t figure out is why, after trading Marsh and having Moniak hurt, they are still not playing him every day. Duggar is playing over him. Duggar has 1 hit with the Angels so far. From an organizational standpoint, how does it benefit you to play Duggar over Adell right now? 

Adell had played 10 of 11 games before Monday. Duggar started over him that day because of Luis Castillo. Since then, Duggar was playing because Adell's thumb was hurt and he can't throw.

[Angelsfan1984]

I miss getting excited watching adell workout hype videos. Too bad baseball is a skill based game and athletic ability can only carry you so far. 

[Blarg]

7 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

I miss getting excited watching adell workout hype videos. Too bad baseball is a skill based game and athletic ability can only carry you so far. 

Players without an elite athleticism are found in the lumber aisle at the Home Depot. 

[Jay]

49 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Not quite as interested in low A ball, not much talent filtering so it's all over the place for picking out talent.

Perhaps I can interest you in Pioneer Baseball League, of which the Boise Hawks are proud members.

https://pioneerleague.com/landing/index

[Angelsfan1984]

34 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Players without an elite athleticism are found in the lumber aisle at the Home Depot. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

I don't have the MiLBTV subscription (the Trash Pandas game last night might change that) but I did go to plenty of games in San Berdo when they were the High A affiliate. Not quite as interested in low A ball, not much talent filtering so it's all over the place for picking out talent.

That said, I watched Adell in High A and was impressed with is play at the time. I posted here before he looked more like a guy that was on a MLB rehab start rather than a 19 year old working his way up the ladder.

Thank you for sharing what you experiences watching him play at IE, I knew you could bring some really good insight into what I was trying to say.  As you well know, watching him LIVE only made it that much easier to see how gifted he was/is athletically -- he is a legit freak.

Watching on TV is a step up from looking at stats, but you don't really see as much of the bad jumps, you see the acceleration/closing speed, so even there it gets masked a bit.  Nothing comes close to seeing the guys play live.  You get a much clearer picture of the speed of the game and more importantly the tools on display.  When people ask what scouts ever saw in him..   Well, they saw him play live where he was a man among boys tools wise.

And yes -- when both Marsh and Adell were on the field in the minors, Marsh made it clear how much more advanced he was as far as actual baseball skills went.  It was never particularly close.  The flipside, despite being a tremendous athlete in his own right -- Adell often made Marsh look average by comparison 

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

You're choosing to focus on a throwaway comment said in support of a post responding to a person asking "what did scouts ever see in him" instead of the paragraphs I've offered explaining my opinion on the matter.

Jo Adell is exactly the same player today as he was when he he was first called up.  A player with tools so loud people ignore the equally loud holes in his game. 

Adell remains high risk high reward, some might say boon or "bust".   That's a fair statement despite the "implication" of the word "bust".   Sometimes its best to not focus on a single word or phrase in favor of paying greater heed to the actual message.

If people want to follow suit and obsess over the phrase "punt on him" that's fine. 

I can understand why some might want to try to paint my comment as hyperbolic instead of having to own up to their own faulty opinion of what Adell was/is. As I have said above, my opinion of Adell remains the same largely because I watched him play and none of what's happening comes as a shock to me.  In some ways I'm surprised it hasn't been worse.  I've advocated for him playing the OF in protective gear at times only partially in jest.

Guess what, FG got it wrong -- and that's not not really a slam on them, it's the nature of the beast.

Take a look at their top 20 in 2019...  Forrest Whitley and Victor Robles were both 65 FVs.  Nick Senzel, Taylor Trammel, Keston Huira, Alex Kirriloff, Brendon McKay, Carter Keirboom and Jo Adell were all given 60 FV grades. They hung a 55 FV on Cristian Pache (upped it to 60 the next season) -- Don't look now but 50% of their top 2019 top 20 has essentially shit the bed (to date), when compared to their projected values.  Meanwhile the highest FV they ever gave to Juan Soto was a 50 -- the same exact value they gave to Jahmai Jones. 

Nobody that ever watched Soto play ever thought Jam Jones was his equal.  Watching them play is key.

It's easy not to be frustrated or disappointed with the player if only the focus had been on what he was actually doing and not what others were writing or what his park inflated triple slash numbers were.  I get that most people don't care enough to do the MiLBTV thing, but it really does help keep one's expectations in check .vs just looking at the stats.

If I did feel the need to point fingers anywhere or voice disappointment/frustration I'd aim that at the organization.  They have either failed to address/correct the obvious holes in his game or at the very least whatever they have done to try to fix those issues has yet to materialize.  Maybe they believe the best thing for him is to see MLB pitching and work on his defense under the watch of MLB coaches and that's fine.  He's gonna take his lumps, IMHO he's positioning himself better on throws and his side to side game remains decent.  That once again is more a testament to his athleticism than any real improvements he's made reading the ball off the bat.

You know who I was "frustrated and disappointed" with? -- Marsh.  To me Adell is the same guy he's always been with the same glaring weaknesses and strengths, but Marsh seemingly regressed.  The strengths he showed in the minors took a step backwards outside of his defense.  He was being tentative while at the same time becoming somewhat pull happy.  He didn't look ANYTHING like the player I watched in the minors.. 

I think you are overly focusing on what you perceive to my over-focus on a word. Haha. If nothing else, I'm simply saying that it is totally understandable to be frustrated when a top prospect like Adell hasn't improved in a significant way after three seasons in the majors - especially when you combine it with Marsh's performance, and within the context of the season as a whole. I mean, we'd like to see something. 

And I know stats only tell part of the picture and are more symptomatic, yet at the same time they are the bottom line: Adell is only as good as what his actual performance is, otherwise we slip into non-sensical thinking like, "He's making more productive outs." Sure, that can be a transitional stage: making harder contact, lining out a lot. But eventually a player is what his numbers say he is.

But yeah, I hear you about Marsh. Really not sure what happened, especially after he started the season so well. One would think it would be relatively easy to dial back to a version of him that was good, sort of like rolling back updates on a problematic computer, but sometimes such problems are hard to fix (see, "Bellinger, Cody").

I was thinking of how dubious FV ratings are when I looking at the stat page of Vaughn Grissom. While it is a very small sample size, he's killing it for the Braves at age 21 and, despite hitting at every level through AA (he skipped AAA), Fangraphs had him at 45 FV.

Anyhow, elaborating from what you say here, is it your opinion that something will hopefully click, and then Adell will get better in a hurry? I mean, the boom or bust seems to imply that either he'll be a star or a scrub, with little in-between. 

 

 

[m0nkey]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

Players without an elite athleticism are found in the lumber aisle at the Home Depot. 

What is an elite athleticism and where can I get one?

[Angelsfan1984]

13 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

What is an elite athleticism and where can I get one?

Watch for deals on cyber Monday. Amazon has it for like 60% off.

[ten ocho recon scout]

To me, the two biggest letdowns.

 

He's lost as an outfielder. I assume he'll get better. But it's hard to ignore how bad he's looked when he's not making up for it by hitting the ball.

You can be patient with the bat if he's holding his own in everything else. When he doesn't seem to be doing anything "good", then it's a massive letdown for what we were expecting.

Which brings us to the second letdown. Maybe he takes time to figure it out. Fair enough. He's young. Maybe at 26 he's suddenly a star or at least very good. The problem is the team he plays for. He and Marsh were supposed to be forming the next core.

This isn't really "fair" to them. It's not their fault the org is so thin on talent. At the same time, it's still a fail on the org. The in house options to ease the workload on Trout before he gets too old seems like it's passing....

And we're in a position where the only fix is to pay for talent..... and we don't have unlimited money to do that. This is where the young guys were supposed to "fix" things.

Put it like this. Let's say in 2 years, Jo Adell arrives. Great. And let's say we lock up Ohtani, like everyone wants. Great.

Won't Adell be a FA in about 3 more years?

Basically, were going to be stuck in this mess until we can produce young actual talent. Potential is great.... but we need talent and results now.

Edited August 18, 2022 by ten ocho recon scout

[Angelsjunky]

8 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

To me, the two biggest letdown.

 

He's lost as an outfielder. I assume he'll get better. But it's hard to ignore how bad he's looked when he's not making up for it by hitting the ball.

You can be patient with the bat if he's holding his own in everything else. When he doesn't seem to be doing anything "good", then it's a massive letdown for what we were expecting.

Which brings us to the second letdown. Maybe he takes time to figure it out. Fair enough. He's young. Maybe at 26 he's suddenly a star or at least very good. The problem is the team he plays for. He and Marsh were supposed to be forming the next core.

This isn't really "fair" to them. It's not their fault the org is so thin on talent. At the same time, it's still a fail on the org. The in house options to ease the workload on Trout before he gets too old seems like it's passing....

And we're in a position where the only fix is to pay for talent..... and we don't have unlimited money to do that. This is where the young guys were supposed to "fix" things.

Put it like this. Let's say in 2 years, Jo Adell arrives. Great. And let's say we lock up Ohtani, like everyone wants. Great.

Won't Adell be a FA in about 3 more years?

Basically, were going to be stuck in this mess until we can produce young actual talent. Potential is great.... but we need talent and results now.

To add on to this a bit, we don't need guys like Adell to be stars. We need them to be solid, everyday players to complement Trout, Ohtani, and hopefully a healthy Rendon.

I'm as happy as anyone that Rengifo has finally broken through, but it isn't like he's become Francisco Lindor. He looks like an average regular - which is just fine. To be honest, good teams have tons of guys like Rengifo - they're the baseline of a good lineup. He seems like a revelation because the team has been so bad this year. If Trout and Ohtani are stars, Rendon and Ward are good players, and then the rest of the lineup - Rengifo, Fletcher, Stassi, Walsh, Adell - are average-ish, that's a pretty good lineup with no major holes.

But Adell isn't even performing at replacement level -- or really, any level that warrants a major league roster spot. They're playing him because A) They have no other good options, and more so, B) They hope he can breakthrough to at least adequate levels.

So the frustration with Adell is less that he's not an insta-star like Trout, and more than he's not even adequate. I don't think it is unfair to expect him to be adequate.

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Thank you for sharing what you experiences watching him play at IE, I knew you could bring some really good insight into what I was trying to say.  As you well know, watching him LIVE only made it that much easier to see how gifted he was/is athletically -- he is a legit freak.

Television coverage is notorious being late to the play unless it's in the infield and minor league ball is worse considering the production crews are not all that good at tracking the plays and have as few as 3 cameras. They are getting better but for a while there broadcasts were like watching three fixed security cameras all out of focus.

So you are never going to see many outfield positioning shots or their first reactions. If they make the play your impression is they got the position down. You didn't see them step off the wrong way and correct like Adell would and just out run the mistake. Not much mistake correction time in the majors so the plays look harder than they are, the mistakes more egregious. 

You should take a weekend off and drive up the road to a couple Trash Panda games. If anything you can pick up some team gear which is a hell of a lot better looking than a Nooga's jersey. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

30 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

To add on to this a bit, we don't need guys like Adell to be stars. We need them to be solid, everyday players to complement Trout, Ohtani, and hopefully a healthy Rendon.

I'm as happy as anyone that Rengifo has finally broken through, but it isn't like he's become Francisco Lindor. He looks like an average regular - which is just fine. To be honest, good teams have tons of guys like Rengifo - they're the baseline of a good lineup. He seems like a revelation because the team has been so bad this year. If Trout and Ohtani are stars, Rendon and Ward are good players, and then the rest of the lineup - Rengifo, Fletcher, Stassi, Walsh, Adell - are average-ish, that's a pretty good lineup with no major holes.

But Adell isn't even performing at replacement level -- or really, any level that warrants a major league roster spot. They're playing him because A) They have no other good options, and more so, B) They hope he can breakthrough to at least adequate levels.

So the frustration with Adell is less that he's not an insta-star like Trout, and more than he's not even adequate. I don't think it is unfair to expect him to be adequate.

Absolutely.

Unfortunately for all involved (adell and the team), it's just a bad combo. The team needs him to be good NOW. And Adell needs the team to be good NOW for him to get better, and not be "needed" to win games.

And neither is happening. 

If literally he and Marsh were as you said, Rengifo (who isn't a star by any stretch, he just looks real good to us because of the rest of the lineup), and Trout and Rendon were healthy, this would be a totally different year, with lots of hope. 

But instead...

[Inside Pitch]

18 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think you are overly focusing on what you perceive to my over-focus on a word. Haha. If nothing else, I'm simply saying that it is totally understandable to be frustrated when a top prospect like Adell hasn't improved in a significant way after three seasons in the majors - especially when you combine it with Marsh's performance, and within the context of the season as a whole. I mean, we'd like to see something. 

I guess this is where I get to flip the script one you and point out that "I don't think any single person has said people shouldn't be frustrated."   Because let's be real here, there are more people "punting" on Adell than there are telling others not to be frustrated (zero). 

As far as anyone who wants to see something goes.  Rengifo.  Reid Detmers showing he's more than a 4th or 5th starter without an out pitch. Suarez not being a DFA candidate.  Sandoval reaching the 100 IP barrier and remaining injury free.  Taylor Ward's last 150 games amounting to a 120 OPS+, and maybe even Fletcher looking like he may have just been struggling due to the injury seem to be something.

There have been plenty of somethings, unfortunately there hasn't been enough winning for people to focus on those things instead of the usual this guy isn't Mike Trrout so he sucks BS. 

18 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

And I know stats only tell part of the picture and are more symptomatic, yet at the same time they are the bottom line: Adell is only as good as what his actual performance is, otherwise we slip into non-sensical thinking like, "He's making more productive outs." 

Most stats people use  are a measure of what, not why -- I've always been more interested in the why .vs the what -- and the best argument to take in any conversation about Adell is to point out how while he's doing well in some of those areas he's doing awfully in others..   The predictive data has long been warning of potential problems.

I'm not attempting to dismiss good or bad performances, I won't pull a Maddon and argue results don't matter  -- in Adell's case it's easy to argue he hasn't been close to good yet, but there reason to believe he can improve -- that's the focus for me.  Plus my expectations weren't based on FG/BBA rankings or triple slash stats, so... I'm not at other people's level of frustration. 

Lastly, IMO. it's BS to argue that anyone looking at more than non predictive results is essentially guilty of making a weak argument like "he's making more productive outs".  There is actually something to predictive data and no, productive outs aren't predictive in ANY way.

18 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

But eventually a player is what his numbers say he is.

Eventually sure...  But we aren't there yet are we?  Purely rhetorical because I know you're in the same waiting pattern I am with Adell.  But other's HAVE in fact decided he is what he is.

18 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

But yeah, I hear you about Marsh. Really not sure what happened, especially after he started the season so well. One would think it would be relatively easy to dial back to a version of him that was good, sort of like rolling back updates on a problematic computer, but sometimes such problems are hard to fix (see, "Bellinger, Cody").

I just know I spent most of the last two months watching him hit and thinking -- what is he doing, that's not him.  I have no idea if they were pushing wait for your pitch and try to elevate because you're a strong guy and should be hitting for more power but., he was tentative and at the same time seemingly pull happy at times.   Not the stay back and hit to all fields guy he was at every level coming up.

18 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I was thinking of how dubious FV ratings are when I looking at the stat page of Vaughn Grissom. While it is a very small sample size, he's killing it for the Braves at age 21 and, despite hitting at every level through AA (he skipped AAA), Fangraphs had him at 45 FV.

FG prospect stuff has really dropped off since Kiley McDaniel bolted.  They used to have like 5 guys doing it -- talent drain and Covid layoffs seemingly have hit them hard.

I don't know if it's just a case of one guy being asked to do too much and having to rely on secondhand info or strictly stats, but they just aren't doing the same amount of work or getting as much right as they used to.  It's not even the rankings that have given me pause, it's been their actual descriptions of a player's strengths/weaknesses -- stuff you know is wrong if you've watched them play.  It's not just guys like Adell either,  they completely glossed over Jared Kelenic's complete inability to hit anything but FBs.  They have taken the BBA/MLB com tendencies to gush over incoming draftees and rank them based on reputations too.  They along with BB Prospectus used to be much more data based than that.

I think it's incredibly difficult for any one site to have a good gauge on every minor leaguer simply because of the huge number of players we are talking about, but there is no question in my mind that FGs has fallen off.  

18 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Anyhow, elaborating from what you say here, is it your opinion that something will hopefully click, and then Adell will get better in a hurry? I mean, the boom or bust seems to imply that either he'll be a star or a scrub, with little in-between. 

I used high risk high reward and boon or bust both... not sure they are interchangeable but both probably apply.

I think Adell needs reps mostly and I'm betting against him being a good defender ever.  I wouldn't say I'm expecting things to click for him, I just think he's gotten by on pure athleticism for so long he's not had to improve his skills.  At times I wonder if MLB is the place for him to be doing that.  I genuinely don't think the Angels have done a good job with him, that first call up was a massive mistake IMHO.  Not giving him a pass or really trying to shit on the team.  He's always been hard to to figure because he's got some really great intangibles (smart, work ethic), but really huge flaws, but everything about how they handled him during that covid season screams mistake.

I also think he's got so much going for him physically that he could fluke his way to some very good seasons based on exit velos and the sort alone.  Mostly when I look at him I see a guy that really needs to reign himself in.  If he does that, I see a guy that will likely have a career full of wildly varying performances.  There is a ton of hit and miss there -- much more than is normal.

Those tools are super loud, he needs to really up his skill game.

[Angelsjunky]

7 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I guess this is where I get to flip the script one you and point out that "I don't think any single person has said people shouldn't be frustrated."   Because let's be real here, there are more people "punting" on Adell than there are telling others not to be frustrated (zero). 

As far as anyone who wants to see something goes.  Rengifo.  Reid Detmers showing he's more than a 4th or 5th starter without an out pitch. Suarez not being a DFA candidate.  Sandoval reaching the 100 IP barrier and remaining injury free.  Taylor Ward's last 150 games amounting to a 120 OPS+, and maybe even Fletcher looking like he may have just been struggling due to the injury seem to be something.

There have been plenty of somethings, unfortunately there hasn't been enough winning for people to focus on those things instead of the usual this guy isn't Mike Trrout so he sucks BS. 

By something  I think you know I was referring to Adell - something from him, some sign of improvement, of him becoming a better player. But nada.

I've half-joked that Angels fans tend to see all prospects as either Trout or Brandon Wood, and if a player isn't one than he's the other. I don't think the concerns about Adell are that he isn't Trout, but that he is much closer to Wood. Meaning, he does actually suck so far. So the complaints would be far less valid if he was, say, hitting at a league average clip and waffling the occasional outfield play, rather than just being terrible in every conceivable way without showing any signs of consistent improvement.

The lack of improvement is what is most concerning to me - not that he isn't good, but that he's not getting better.

7 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Most stats people use  are a measure of what, not why -- I've always been more interested in the why .vs the what -- and the best argument to take in any conversation about Adell is to point out how while he's doing well in some of those areas he's doing awfully in others..   The predictive data has long been warning of potential problems.

I'm not attempting to dismiss good or bad performances, I won't pull a Maddon and argue results don't matter  -- in Adell's case it's easy to argue he hasn't been close to good yet, but there reason to believe he can improve -- that's the focus for me.  Plus my expectations weren't based on FG/BBA rankings or triple slash stats, so... I'm not at other people's level of frustration. 

I just think you're overly maligning people being frustrated with Adell, as if such frustration is inherently because people had unreasonable expectations or looked at the wrong numbers, etc. Let me turn it around for a second: Is there any other valid response to Adell's performance thus far than some degree of frustration? Maybe people are more frustrated than they should be, but I just don't see any other way to feel about Adell. Isn't  mild to moderate frustration a valid response, at least?

7 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Lastly, IMO. it's BS to argue that anyone looking at more than non predictive results is essentially guilty of making a weak argument like "he's making more productive outs".  There is actually something to predictive data and no, productive outs aren't predictive in ANY way.

Eventually sure...  But we aren't there yet are we?  Purely rhetorical because I know you're in the same waiting pattern I am with Adell.  But other's HAVE in fact decided he is what he is.

Yes, and we agree that is premature. But where I think the basic stats have meaning is as a barometer of improvements for which there are no direct statistics - say, looking at his BB and K rates. So we can hope to see some sign of improvement there, though we haven't. I'm also a bit baffled by how few HR he's hitting - HR as a percentage of total hits...its way down from the minors. He doesn't seem to be even making good contact when he does make contact.

7 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I just know I spent most of the last two months watching him hit and thinking -- what is he doing, that's not him.  I have no idea if they were pushing wait for your pitch and try to elevate because you're a strong guy and should be hitting for more power but., he was tentative and at the same time seemingly pull happy at times.   Not the stay back and hit to all fields guy he was at every level coming up.

I read somewhere that the Angels reworked his swing to hit for more power. If so, dumb, dumb move.

7 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

FG prospect stuff has really dropped off since Kiley McDaniel bolted.  They used to have like 5 guys doing it -- talent drain and Covid layoffs seemingly have hit them hard.

I don't know if it's just a case of one guy being asked to do too much and having to rely on secondhand info or strictly stats, but they just aren't doing the same amount of work or getting as much right as they used to.  It's not even the rankings that have given me pause, it's been their actual descriptions of a player's strengths/weaknesses -- stuff you know is wrong if you've watched them play.  It's not just guys like Adell either,  they completely glossed over Jared Kelenic's complete inability to hit anything but FBs.  They have taken the BBA/MLB com tendencies to gush over incoming draftees and rank them based on reputations too.  They along with BB Prospectus used to be much more data based than that.

I think it's incredibly difficult for any one site to have a good gauge on every minor leaguer simply because of the huge number of players we are talking about, but there is no question in my mind that FGs has fallen off.  

I hear you, though their ratings have always been wonky going back to the beginning of their FV rankings five or six years ago. I'm not sure they're worse at it than anyone else, just that we've always seen stuff like Soto having a 50 FV, Robles at 65 FV, or Grissom's 45 FV.

7 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I used high risk high reward and boon or bust both... not sure they are interchangeable but both probably apply.

I think Adell needs reps mostly and I'm betting against him being a good defender ever.  I wouldn't say I'm expecting things to click for him, I just think he's gotten by on pure athleticism for so long he's not had to improve his skills.  At times I wonder if MLB is the place for him to be doing that.  I genuinely don't think the Angels have done a good job with him, that first call up was a massive mistake IMHO.  Not giving him a pass or really trying to shit on the team.  He's always been hard to to figure because he's got some really great intangibles (smart, work ethic), but really huge flaws, but everything about how they handled him during that covid season screams mistake.

I also think he's got so much going for him physically that he could fluke his way to some very good seasons based on exit velos and the sort alone.  Mostly when I look at him I see a guy that really needs to reign himself in.  If he does that, I see a guy that will likely have a career full of wildly varying performances.  There is a ton of hit and miss there -- much more than is normal.

Those tools are super loud, he needs to really up his skill game.

Yeah, I keep going back and forth on whether he should be in the majors at all or not. I tend to think that at this point, he should be up for the rest of the year with the hopes that he starts moving forward. But if not, I think they should just put him back in AAA next year and not call him up again until he's made significant strides, and consistently so for an extended period of time. He probably needs some kind of offseason training regime with a good hitting coach.

 

Edited August 19, 2022 by Angelsjunky