Anatomy of a Slump, Part 2: Trout's Worst Slump Ever

[Angelsjunky]

So we all know Trout is slumping hard. But just how hard?

There are two time-frames to consider: the last 7 games and the last 11 games. He had a five-day slump in mid-May, but then went off for a week with a couple huge games. So really, we're talking about May 25 to present, with the last 7 games being particularly bad.

So how bad is it? Well, I did some research, and both are the worst such spans of his career -- and it isn't particularly close. Compare:

Worst 7-Game Spans Per Year

2022: .000/.103/.100, 6.9 BB%, 31.0 K%, -65 wRC+

2021: .095/.321/.095, 25.0 BB%, 32.1 K%, 45 wRC+

2020: .161/.278/.258, 11.1 BB%, 33.3 K%, 53 wRC+

2019: .214/.267/.214, 6.7 BB%, 26.7 K%, 30 wRC+

2018: .130/.355/.348, 22.6 BB%, 19.4 K%, 57 wRC+

2017: .120/.333/.120, 24.2 BB%, 24.2 K%, 51 wRC+

2016: .167/.250/.167, 10.7 BB%, 39.3 K%, 20 wRC+

2015: .125/.276/.167, 17.2 BB%, 24.1 K%, 26 wRC+

2014: .133/.200/.333, 5.7 BB%, 31.4 K%, 39 wRC+

2013: .125/.290/.167, 19.4 BB%, 25.8 K%, 45 wRC+

2012: .194/.242/.290, 6.1 BB%, 30.3 K%, 50 wRC+

What stands out here are a few things: One, his 7-game slump isn't just worse than any other, it is FAR worse than any other. The worst wRC+ a player can have is -100; that means a player doesn't get on base in any form or fashion.  Trout has walked twice and been hit by a pitch once, so been on base three times. And wRC+ doesn't count strikeouts, as far as I can tell; Trout has struck out 9 times.

Secondly, his walk rate is lower than in most, but higher than three. We'll come back to that in a moment. What also stands out is that while his K% is very high, it is "in the mix" with that of many other slumps.

Let's look at the 11-game spans:

Worst 11-Game Spans Per Year

2022: .095/.174/.190, 4.3 BB%, 34.8 K%, 7 wRC+

2021: .147/.341/.294, 20.5 BB%, 34.1 K%, 82 wRC+

2020: .167/.286/.381, 12.2 BB%, 26.5 K%, 82 wRC+

2019: .225/.333/.375, 14.6 BB%, 14.6 K%, 84 wRC+

2018: .158/.333/.237, 16.7 BB%, 25.0 K%, 62 wRC+

2017: .184/.289/.316, 11.1 BB%, 17.8 K%, 66 wRC+

2016: .237/.348/.263, 15.2 BB%, 26.1 K%, 79 wRC+

2015: .159/.275/.250, 13.7 BB%, 31.4 K%, 48 wRC+

2014: .159/.235/.318, 7.8 BB%, 27.5 K%, 52 wRC+

2013: .191/.286/.298, 12.5 BB%, 19.6 K%, 67 wRC+

2012: .224/.269/.286, 5.8 BB%, 28.8 K%, 57 wRC+

Again, it is by far his worst 11-game span. In fact, the second lowest was 48, and some of them were better than David Fletcher's entire 2021 season (70 wRC+).

Trout's walk % is actually lower during the full 11 games, and lower than any other. 2012's is the only one that is close.

Statcast: Last 11 games vs. first 39 games

Slump (11 games): 17 Events, 87.3 Exit Velocity, 36.9 Launch Angle, 0.0% Barrel, 35.3% HardHit

Before Slump (First 39 games): 106 Events, 92.3 EV, 22.2 LA, 23.6% Barrel, 50.0 HardHit.

So here we see something rather striking: Trout hasn't barreled a single ball during his slump. His LA is very high - meaning, he's hitting the ball into pop-ups, and he's also hitting the ball with less velocity.

In other words, he's a mess. Now why he's been so bad is anyone's guess. Given that he was on pace for one of his best years before the slump, chances are that the problem is mostly psychological, and it may only take one good hit to break out of it.

Addendum: 2011

I didn't bother initially looking at 2011, because I don't think it is really fair to consider, considering it was his first exposure to big league pitching, and just after turning 20, plus only for 40 games. Actually, I don't have a lot of memories of his first exposure, but it is interesting how it breaks down:  But if you're curious: 

First call-up (July 8-29): 14 games, .163/.213/.279, 34 wRC+

Second call-up, first 11 games (August 19-Sept 3): 11 games, .406/.500/.844, 267 wRC+

Second call-up, final 15 games (Sept 4-28): .146/.180/.188, 0 wRC+

Meaning, Trout was totally over-matched, except for the first 11 games after his second call-up, when he utterly torched the ball. The first 7 games of that span yielded a -44 wRC+, so even including 2011, this has been his worst span ever.

Worst 7-game span: .191/.286/.298, 12.5 BB%, 19.6 K%, 67 wRC+

Worst 11-game span: .224/.269/.286, 5.8 BB%, 28.8 K%, 57 wRC+

[UndertheHalo]

Very sad 

[Taylor]

Interesting analysis. It's gotta be something mental or psychological at this point.

[Jason]

Just now, Taylor said:

Interesting analysis. It's gotta be something mental or psychological at this point.

Aren't those the same thing? 

[Taylor]

1 minute ago, Jason said:

Aren't those the same thing? 

Maybe.

[Jason]

1 minute ago, Taylor said:

Maybe.

I believe he is dealing with issue with both of them then 

[Revad]

6 minutes ago, Jason said:

I believe he is dealing with issue with both of them then 

Probably blaming himself for the team slump, it would be easier to deal with if the team was winning.

[Jason]

1 minute ago, Revad said:

Probably blaming himself for the team slump, it would be easier to deal with if the team was winning.

He definitely has some blame on his shoulders. They all do  

[BillyMartin9]

Mike is a great player, but not a good leader. He was "all smiles" when he was in a press conference about returning to PA with the Phillies. At the time Angels were on a 8 game losing streak. Any leader would not be "all smiles" and probably would skip interviews. Could never imagine a Brady or Jordan smiling during a press conference on such a streak.