Shohei hard at work, no celebration, predictions next year?

[MPohleece]

According to Japanese new sites, Sho was training as usual the day the MVP announcement came, slipped on a simple collarless shirt and sport coat to do the quick TV interviews. No celebration that night, went to sleep early because he had an early morning training as usual. We'll see if the diligent training translates to production again next year. Predictions at year end?

Pitcher: 14 wins, close to 150 IP, WHIP a touch below 1, ERA in the high 2s.

Hitter: between 9 and 1K OPS, at least .600 SLG, 40 & 100 rbi, 30 SB, bat close to .300. Hope he cuts down his SO to near 100.

Guessing Trout hitting behind him most of the time.

[Angelsfan1984]

This feels too early

[tdawg87]

58 HR, 144 RBI, 2nd place MVP to Trout who hits 68 HR and finishes with a 1.488 OPS and 13.2 WAR.

[Angelsfan1984]

I wouldn’t sell trout short. 70 minimum 

[tdawg87]

45 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

I wouldn’t sell trout short. 70 minimum 

69. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

I could see Trout practicing knuckleballs and how to say "the pen is on the table" in Japanese this winter. Showing up to spring training with an anime t shirt and making origami boats.

[Angelsfan1984]

7 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I could see Trout practicing knuckleballs and how to say "the pen is on the table" in Japanese this winter. Showing up to spring training with an anime t shirt and making origami boats.

[Angelsjunky]

11 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

58 HR, 144 RBI, 2nd place MVP to Trout who hits 68 HR and finishes with a 1.488 OPS and 13.2 WAR.

So Shohei becomes Sammy Sosa and Trout, Barry Bonds?

Sounds fishy.

[Angelsjunky]

The big question is whether he can stay healthy again. I don't see why not, but his first few years are hard to forget.

But assuming health, I don't see why he can't put up similar numbers next year, but I think there will be small differences: He'll hit for a bit higher average and strikeout and walk a bit less, due to not pressing as much and with the returned presence of Trout and Rendon. I think the power numbers will be similar.

As a pitcher, I think his ERA will be a bit lower, maybe in the 2.80 - 3.00 range, and throw 10-20 more innings, starting 25 games.

Again, if healthy.

[Docwaukee]

11 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I could see Trout practicing knuckleballs and how to say "the pen is on the table" in Japanese this winter. Showing up to spring training with an anime t shirt and making origami boats.

Trout has mastered all forms of Rinnegan.  

[Blarg]

He needs to master Run Again. 

[eligrba]

If Trout and Rendon stay healthy and if Walsh figures out how to hit left handed pitchers, there is no reason not expect Ohtani to repeat his stats, and maybe even improve them.  I would expect his average to increase because he will not feel obligated to be the primary offensive force in the lineup.

[Deek]

31 minutes ago, eligrba said:

If Trout and Rendon stay healthy and if Walsh figures out how to hit left handed pitchers, there is no reason not expect Ohtani to repeat his stats, and maybe even improve them.  I would expect his average to increase because he will not feel obligated to be the primary offensive force in the lineup.

If Sho has already proven he can put those numbers up with Trout and Rendon on the DL and Walsh unable to hit lefties... What does their status have to do with him replicating his performance....?

[eligrba]

6 minutes ago, Deek said:

If Sho has already proven he can put those numbers up with Trout and Rendon on the DL and Walsh unable to hit lefties... What does their status have to do with him replicating his performance....?

I would expect the league to make adjustments after having the off season to analyze the data. 

[Angelsjunky]

43 minutes ago, eligrba said:

I would expect the league to make adjustments after having the off season to analyze the data. 

Well, they kind of did in the second half. Or maybe he was tired, or probably a bit of both.

1st half: .279/364/.698, 33 HR in 84 games

2nd half: .229/.382/.458, 13 HR in 71 games

That high OBP for only a .229 BA in the second half is rather telling: he wasn't being pitched to, at all. So maybe they didn't as much adjust, as avoid him. That won't be the case in 2022, with Trout and Rendon back.

So it might be a case of one step forward, one step back, and similar overall performance (although with a higher BA and a few less Ks and BBs).

[ten ocho recon scout]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Well, they kind of did in the second half. Or maybe he was tired, or probably a bit of both.

1st half: .279/364/.698, 33 HR in 84 games

2nd half: .229/.382/.458, 13 HR in 71 games

That high OBP for only a .229 BA in the second half is rather telling: he wasn't being pitched to, at all. So maybe they didn't as much adjust, as avoid him. That won't be the case in 2022, with Trout and Rendon back.

So it might be a case of one step forward, one step back, and similar overall performance (although with a higher BA and a few less Ks and BBs).

Keep in mind his offensive numbers last year, rate wise, werent a whole lot different from his first two (last I checked). More counting numbers, since they finally played him fill time. But his power and eye have always been there.

I hesitate to expect another monster year from him (I would with anyone after what he did last year). But his arm is 2 years removed from TJ, so he should be healthy now. And his bat has always been there.

And age wise he's coming into his prime.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Keep in mind his offensive numbers last year, rate wise, werent a whole lot different from his first two (last I checked). More counting numbers, since they finally played him fill time. But his power and eye have always been there.

I hesitate to expect another monster year from him (I would with anyone after what he did last year). But his arm is 2 years removed from TJ, so he should be healthy now. And his bat has always been there.

And age wise he's coming into his prime.

Actually, 2021 was quite different from 2018-19. Compare:

2018: .285/.361/.564, 10.1 BB%, 27.8 K%, .279 ISO, .350 BABIP, 149 wRC+

2019: .286/.343/.505, 7.8 BB%, 25.9 K%, .219 ISO, .354 BABIP, 120 wRC+

2021: .257/.372/.592, 15.0 BB%, 29.6 K%, .335 ISO, .303 BABIP, 152 wRC+

2019 was a solid drop, mainly due to less power, but also fewer walks. 2021 saw his power spike, and with it his walks and strikeouts, but was similar in overall wRC+ to 2018.

Notice how his BABIP in 2018-19 is almost exactly the same, but much lower in 2021. That might be him being a bit unlucky, but I think it also has to do with him making harder contact, so more line-outs and less bloop singles.

He also barreled up far more often, from 14.2% in 2018 to 11.4% in 2019 to 22.3% in 2021. His HardHit% also improved, although not as dramatically.

His LineDrive % went down, and his ground ball route went way down (from 49+% to 38% in 2021).

None of this should be surprising to anyone, but the bottom line is that he's hitting the ball harder, more fly balls, and it is going out more. This is perhaps best illustrated by a Launch Angle that has gone from 12.2 to 6.7 in his first two years, and 16.8 in 2021.

 

[WicketMaiden]

Seeing the way his command continually improved and the way his pitch usage developed during the season Shohei could take another step forward as a pitcher in 2022, maybe establish himself as a genuine ace. His splitter and slider are elite pitches with extreme movement (and are things of beauty to watch) and as his command of those, his cutter and his 100mph fastball improves and his understanding of his best pitch sequencing matures, he's only going to get even better. When it's all working, and with a bit of Syndergaard's bulldog on the mound attitude mixed in, he could be Cy Young level.

I can't wait to see him pitch next year, he's going to make a lot of hitters look very silly at the plate.

[AngelStew43]

Close to the same numbers as last year, but with a higher batting average.

.305/45/105

[Blarg]

He hit .257 last season. I don't see a .50 point bump in batting average but I would like to see him approach the .280 mark. I think that would be a reasonable expectation. 

[Jason]

37 minutes ago, Blarg said:

He hit .257 last season. I don't see a .50 point bump in batting average but I would like to see him approach the .280 mark. I think that would be a reasonable expectation. 

I agree with this. If my memory serves, I think he was around the .280 mark at the All Star break but cooled off a bit coming out of it. I think we can all agree that Angel hitters should avoid that useless HR derby.

[bloodbrother]

Since the Angels are usually cursed I'd expect him to regress next year but Trout and Rendon stay healthy to offset it a bit. The Angels can't ever seem to have all their pieces all hitting on all cylinders together

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 11/25/2021 at 11:34 PM, Angelsjunky said:

So Shohei becomes Sammy Sosa and Trout, Barry Bonds?

Sounds fishy.

Sounds sushi

[Warfarin]

10 hours ago, bloodbrother said:

Since the Angels are usually cursed I'd expect him to regress next year but Trout and Rendon stay healthy to offset it a bit. The Angels can't ever seem to have all their pieces all hitting on all cylinders together

 

Even if he regresses, if he does anything remotely close to what he did last year with a healthy Trout and Rendon, this team will win a lot of games.

A healthy Trout and Rendon would have probably added close to 10 wins to this team last year, maybe a bit more, given their historical fWAR values.

Not even to make the playoffs, but they would have been in contention until the end.

[AngelStew43]

I think we are lucky to have two of the best conditioned players on the planet in Trout and Ohtani.  It does take some luck to get through a 162-game schedule without injury.  

If Trout and Ohtani can achieve this at the same time, along with Syndergaard, the Angels could have a very good 2022.  

Ohtani pitching wise:  14 wins, 175K in 160 innings.