Your Pitching Preference

[BTH]

If the Angels only have the payroll to choose one of these two options, which one would you prefer?

a) 1 high-end starting pitcher and no external closer.

b) 1 mid-rotation starting pitcher and Raisel Iglesias.

 

Per FanGraphs/Roster Resource, the Angels only have $32M before they reach their 2021 payroll level. So, unless the payroll goes up, they might have to make a decision like this. (This assumes that any extra money would go towards SS/Bullpen Depth)

[tdawg87]

Where is the "Yes" option?

[tdawg87]

2nd one.

[Blarg]

Syndergaard is the high end starter. They don't necessarily need another starter but they damn well need a closer and back up catcher. 

[Docwaukee]

personally not sold on any of the 'high end' SP on the FA market.  And I'm also not overly thrilled about the idea of spending 15-18 mil on a reliever.  I'd rather get a mid range starter with some upside, a decent SS, and a decent reliever while perhaps trading for a closer.  

[failos]

Why not both?

[BTH]

1 hour ago, failos said:

Why not both?

that'd be ideal, but it likely requires Arte expanding the payroll (which he should)

[Angelsjunky]

You really need to factor in a middle infielder, the bench, and bullpen as a whole.

I also think Arte will go over last year's payroll, but still try to hold payroll below the luxury tax threshold, which is $210M. So let's say they want to stay below $200M to provide a cushion - that means they have as much as $50M more to spend, not $32M (according to Fangraphs they're at $150M now, with last year ending up at $182M). I'm not saying that they'll spend $50M, just that I could see Arte green-lighting that much, given the circumstances. If we split the different, that's about $40M left.

That $150M includes players due arbitration: Stassi ($2.7M), Goose ($1.5M), and Mayer ($2.2M). Clearly they'll pay Stassi, and I think Mayer too, but I think they let Goose go. So it might be a tad below $150M.

So according to Fangraphs, we have:

Salaried players: Trout, Rendon, Upton, Syndergaard, Ohtani, Fletcher = $132.2M

Arb players: Stassi, Mayer = $4.5M

Pre-arb players: Walsh, Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, Adell, Marsh = $11.4M

That's 14 players, with 12 slots to fill with about $40M to spend (or anywhere from $32-52M or so).

I'm not sure why they don't list Mayfield, Rengifo, Warren, or any other reliever in the pre-arb group, but presumably some of those 12 slots will be filled out with some of those guys for cheap. So if we say half of those slots for $600K, that's still about $29M-49M, or roughly $40M for 6 players. 

 

[BTH]

37 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I also think Arte will go over last year's payroll, but still try to hold payroll below the luxury tax threshold, which is $210M. So let's say they want to stay below $200M to provide a cushion - that means they have as much as $50M more to spend, not $32M (according to Fangraphs they're at $150M now, with last year ending up at $182M). I'm not saying that they'll spend $50M, just that I could see Arte green-lighting that much, given the circumstances. If we split the different, that's about $40M left.

I'd hope that's the case, but it seems like a leap to just assume that he'll go to that level when he hasn't before.

I get that he has exceeded the luxury tax once before, but a higher luxury tax number also typically comes with a higher payroll in actual salaries.

Until we hear or see that he will go past 2021 payroll levels, I'm going to be skeptical that he actually will.

[BTH]

As an aside, I'm skeptical about that Max Stassi arbitration projection by MLBTR. He's in his 2nd year of arbitration and he is coming off two great seasons, albeit not full seasons.

[AngelStew43]

A high end starter and Corey Knebel.

[UndertheHalo]

This is one of those don’t put all of your eggs in one basket kind of things.  To me necessarily you try and give yourself the most contingencies.  They could go get Scherzer and it could be a fucking mess.  If that’s all there is then that’s pretty bad.  On the other hand.  Option 2 gives you a chance to have one of the moves work out.  Of course they could both be disasters.  <shrugs> anyway.  Option 2. 

[HanfordGuy]

Don’t pay for saves. Sign Scherzer.

[Warfarin]

10 hours ago, AngelStew43 said:

A high end starter and Corey Knebel.

This is a great idea.  Knebel will be cheap, due to his injury, but he has been really good when healthy.

Go sign Scherzer (3/96?) and then sign Knebel to something like a 1/5 deal with a vesting 2nd year option for ~8-10mil that vests if he achieves a reasonable amount of appearances (40?).

Sign a backup catcher for a modest deal (1/2 range, based on what we are seeing backups sign for right now), then maybe look into acquiring a modest SS option.  Can maybe look into trading for Kyle Farmer, given the Reds are looking to shed payroll.  

[Junkballer]

The Angels have too many needs to re-sign Iglesias, not the least of which is to improve the defense.  Unless of course they blow up the budget which isn't going to happen, Iglesias fills one hole but blocks others.  Perhaps if they could get him to drastically back-load his contract it might happen but again, highly doubtful.  They need, at minimum, a mid-range starter with a history of health/innings, a closer, setup arm, SS  and backup C.

I'd sign Kendall Graveman, and another late innings arm.  You can possibly pay for Graveman and the setup arm for the price of Iglesias.

I still think Jon Gray is a good bet.  He won't be a Stroman, but there is a good chance that outside of Colorado he can adjust to the AL and succeed here.  Perhaps it may take the first portion of the season to get his legs under him but he can be had at a reasonable price and likely needs only a 3-year commitment.

Trade for a solid defensive SS.  He can have a below league average bat. See if there is a reasonable trade market for Fletcher and if yes, plug in Rengifo at 2B.

I feel the Angels should seriously explore aiming higher than for a run of the mill backup C.  Stassi likely won't start 100 games, possibly significantly less than that, and he seems to get run down towards the end of the season even with a moderate workload.  This is an area where I wouldn't mind them overpaying for the purposes of insurance and just pencil in Stassi and the acquisition at 81 games each.

[Dtwncbad]

The problem with this poll is that it assumes the only way to address needs is free agency.

The real answer is you determine which needs are most efficient to acquire through free agency and which needs are most efficient to acquire by trade.

My personal guess is you use available  money to attempt to land the high end starting pitcher and use the trade market for the other needs.

[Angelsfan1984]

I could see something like sign Raisel, trade for Castillo then trade a prospect to a team for a SS to eat salary just like they did with shittier Iglesias 

[Angelsjunky]

There's a common unquestioned assumption that one's favorite team exists in a kind of "free agency vacuum," where their team can sign whomever they want, as long as they want to spend the money. This is only true if a team is willing to overpay far beyond what anyone else will pay - like the Pujols or Hamilton deals, which were both reportedly well above what anyone else offered.

But in actuality, the Angels are competing against other teams, sometimes many of them. And while I've heard it said that players will take the highest bidder 95% of the time, I imagine that what often happens is team A offers $20M, team B offers $18M; if player would prefer to play for team B, team B will often say, "OK, we'll give you $20M."

My point being, the Angels have to at least equal the highest offer and be a team the player wants to play for. Meaning, it isn't entirely up to the Angels. Yet another version of, "This isn't fantasy baseball."

But back to the question of the thread, I just can't get on the "Scherzer and scraps" train. The Angels have too many holes to fill (gross). Signing Scherzer--even if Arte opens up the purse strings for $40-45M more--means they have to plug the middle infield, back-up catcher, and half of the bullpen with a combination of in-house options, very cheap signings, and/or trades.

If Scherzer is $35M, it is possible they sign Raisel, Chris Taylor and a DeScaflani/Cobb for just $5-10M more, and I'd much rather have those three good+ players than Scherzer and a couple scrubs. With the "this isn't fantasy baseball" caveat. I also have a feeling that Taylor is going to get a lot of suitors and be somewhat overpaid.

Edited November 22, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[rottiesworld]

12 hours ago, HanfordGuy said:

Don’t pay for saves. Sign Scherzer.

Yeah and then have the relievers blow the save because we got Scherzer. We need someone who is going to save the game or what difference does it make who they sign.

[Hubs]

23 hours ago, Dochalo said:

personally not sold on any of the 'high end' SP on the FA market.  And I'm also not overly thrilled about the idea of spending 15-18 mil on a reliever.  I'd rather get a mid range starter with some upside, a decent SS, and a decent reliever while perhaps trading for a closer.  

I want Scherzer but know that's not likely. Hello Sean Manaea or Chris Bassitt or Sonny Gray.

I agree we need help at SS and Tyler Wade isn't it.

I also don't think because they offered the QO for Iglesias, he'll get anything close to 18M a year. Everyone keeps claiming that Hendriks got 18M, but he got 3 years at 39M plus a one year 15M option, with a 15M buyout. I don't understand the logic of structuring it this way, and there is no way they decline this option if he is even remotely healthy. So it's 4/54, not 3/54 and 4/54 is 13.5M per season. 

That's where Iglesias will slot in at, somewhere between 13.5 and 16M per.

 

[BTH]

4 hours ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

trade for Castillo

Doesn't sound like the Reds are interested in trading Castillo.

[BTH]

7 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I want Scherzer but know that's not likely. Hello Sean Manaea or Chris Bassitt or Sonny Gray.

I'd love to see the Angels acquire Chris Bassitt. Partially because he always shoves against the Angels, and acquiring him would mean that he can't beat them. But mainly, he's just a good pitcher.

[BTH]

5 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

The problem with this poll is that it assumes the only way to address needs is free agency.

The real answer is you determine which needs are most efficient to acquire through free agency and which needs are most efficient to acquire by trade.

My personal guess is you use available  money to attempt to land the high end starting pitcher and use the trade market for the other needs.

Yeah it does, but it's harder to predict trades than free agent signings from the outside.

[BTH]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I also have a feeling that Taylor is going to get a lot of suitors and be somewhat overpaid.

Agreed. I've seen people suggest that Taylor will get like 4/$60M or 4/$64M and I can't help but think they're way off.

I could see him getting the LeMahieu contract 6/$90M or like 5/$85M

[ScruffytheJanitor]

My preference is to sign Jon Gray, Robbie Ray, Raisiel Iglasias, Corey Knebel, Andrew Chaffin, Aaron Loup, and trade for Jose Trivino as a back up catcher.