Adell concerns?

[Angels Fan Forever]

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

I'm disquieted by all the synonyms for "worried."

I agree. It is disturbing and makes me feel anxious.

[T.G.]

So, we're done with the Brandon Wood comparisons?

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

That was Doc. 

Also, he was given a 70 FV last year by FG, Vladdy was the lone 80.    He wasn't ready last year -- many of us said as much prior to his call up, hell.. prior to the season.  He's exactly the same player he was when everyone was slobbering over him.  The people that punted on him were having kneejerk reactions and haven't really been following the player or understand his make-up -- the same thing has happened with Chris Rodriguez, but he's never come close to having Adell's profile.

Sites love hype and love being right.  A guy gets hurt, they back off, a guy has a bad couple of months and they start focusing on the numbers instead of the player.  Adells tools are ridiculous.  Nobody has every questioned his intelligence or work ethic.  He will have his struggles, much like Marsh is having right now but he's a physical freak.   

Middle 2023 Jo Adell will probably be a lot of fun to watch.

Oh right, sorry @Dochalo. I thought it was one of the two of you.

Not that it matters, but I think the highest FG ever gave him was 65 - they moved him up after 2019, he was at 65 to start 2020 and 60 after. Vlad hasn't been on the Board since pre-2019 when he was a 70. They took him off with the 2019 update.

Anyhow, I agree with you about the kneejerk reactions, but it is all understandable, just not very well thought through and missing the forest for the trees. I think it was reasonable that FG dropped him from 65 to 60, if only due to his unexpectedly terrible defense, although maybe not fair based upon his 2020 major league performance. I personally was more concerned with him earlier this year, with his walk to strikeout ratio, but even then I didn't see him as less than a 60 FV. As he adjusted, the glow returned, and I think 65 FV is the most accurate assessment.

Adell and Marsh are going to be fun to watch in comparison. For our end of 2019 prospect list, every one of the "Prospect Posse" had him ranked #1, and ahead of Marsh. If I remember correctly, only Doc changed that for 2020, and then several of us ranked Marsh ahead at the beginning of this year (including myself), although I unfortunately wrote over that file for the 2021 rankings so can't double-check.

I think Adell vs. Marsh isn't unlike Rodriguez vs. Detmers. Adell (and Rodriguez) probably have higher upside, but Marsh (and Detmers) have higher floors, and their upsides aren't far off. So the choice between the two of either pair might come down to whether or not you'll take slightly higher upside for greater risk. 

[Inside Pitch]

36 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Anyhow, I agree with you about the kneejerk reactions, but it is all understandable, just not very well thought through and missing the forest for the trees. I think it was reasonable that FG dropped him from 65 to 60, if only due to his unexpectedly terrible defense, although maybe not fair based upon his 2020 major league performance. I personally was more concerned with him earlier this year, with his walk to strikeout ratio, but even then I didn't see him as less than a 60 FV. As he adjusted, the glow returned, and I think 65 FV is the most accurate assessment.

Adell and Marsh are going to be fun to watch in comparison. For our end of 2019 prospect list, every one of the "Prospect Posse" had him ranked #1, and ahead of Marsh. If I remember correctly, only Doc changed that for 2020, and then several of us ranked Marsh ahead at the beginning of this year (including myself), although I unfortunately wrote over that file for the 2021 rankings so can't double-check.

I think Adell vs. Marsh isn't unlike Rodriguez vs. Detmers. Adell (and Rodriguez) probably have higher upside, but Marsh (and Detmers) have higher floors, and their upsides aren't far off. So the choice between the two of either pair might come down to whether or not you'll take slightly higher upside for greater risk. 

Meh -- knee-jerk reactions are reactions -- I don't think they are thought out at all.  

FGs tends to try to toe the line between tools and stats, that can get hard to do.  I'm not being critical, I like to think of the way they do it as "trust but verify".... I'm just saying the way they do things can be more difficult that simply going full stats ala BBP or straight tools like BBA used to do.  FG tries to temper what they see with what they can prove.  It's an approach I try to follow too, but at times they seem to be too worried about being wrong. 

Anyway, if you believe in the tools, then his piss poor defensive showing would have been disheartening but, you'd tend to believe if he has the skills then the tools will win out.  BBA used to be this way almost to a fault, now they respond to actual changes in performance more but for years they would tout a guys tools and ignore stat-lines.  I think the underlying fear some felt after Adell's call up last year was whether or not he was actually a baseball player -- the defensive showing was that ugly.  What I don't get is why if that were possible why it wasn't brought up previously?  It's not like you can mask bad OF defense in the minors, if anything unlike bad IF offense which can often be a result of bad lighting and poor fields, OF defense is less volatile.  If anything he started his minor league career with defensive concerns about his arm and by the time he was in High A, they have been quieted.  I don't know what it was last year but for him to be that legitimately bad it would have come up previously -- ala Eloy and others.

Luckily, by pretty much every account, the defense has been a lot better this year..  We will find out soon enough, but tools wise, he's the same guy everyone was gushing over prior to 2020.  His tools have not been any less awe inspiring when faced with better, more talented opposition.  If anything they have stood out that much more given what he DID do while not having a clue how to do it.

Adell is a trip.  I mean, my biggest gripe has long been that he's too self assured and let's that get the best of him.  He will be fun to watch develop.

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, True Grich said:

So, we're done with the Brandon Wood comparisons?

Lets wait until he strikes out again.  

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Meh -- knee-jerk reactions are reactions -- I don't think they are thought out at all.  

FGs tends to try to toe the line between tools and stats, that can get hard to do.  I'm not being critical, I like to think of the way they do it as "trust but verify".... I'm just saying the way they do things can be more difficult that simply going full stats ala BBP or straight tools like BBA used to do.  FG tries to temper what they see with what they can prove.  It's an approach I try to follow too, but at times they seem to be too worried about being wrong. 

Anyway, if you believe in the tools, then his piss poor defensive showing would have been disheartening but, you'd tend to believe if he has the skills then the tools will win out.  BBA used to be this way almost to a fault, now they respond to actual changes in performance more but for years they would tout a guys tools and ignore stat-lines.  I think the underlying fear some felt after Adell's call up last year was whether or not he was actually a baseball player -- the defensive showing was that ugly.  What I don't get is why if that were possible why it wasn't brought up previously?  It's not like you can mask bad OF defense in the minors, if anything unlike bad IF offense which can often be a result of bad lighting and poor fields, OF defense is less volatile.  If anything he started his minor league career with defensive concerns about his arm and by the time he was in High A, they have been quieted.  I don't know what it was last year but for him to be that legitimately bad it would have come up previously -- ala Eloy and others.

Luckily, by pretty much every account, the defense has been a lot better this year..  We will find out soon enough, but tools wise, he's the same guy everyone was gushing over prior to 2020.  His tools have not been any less awe inspiring when faced with better, more talented opposition.  If anything they have stood out that much more given what he DID do while not having a clue how to do it.

Adell is a trip.  I mean, my biggest gripe has long been that he's too self assured and let's that get the best of him.  He will be fun to watch develop.

My general sense is that he'll be a "flawed star." By that I mean he'll be really, really good, but there will be aspects of his game that keep him from being a "megastar," even though he has the tools. I'm trying to think of a comp but can't think of anyone off hand. Maybe Eric Davis? Darryl Strawberry? Thankfully Adell doesn't have a drug problem (I assume). He's not as fast as Davis was early on (Davis stole 80 bases in his first season, along with 27 HR; the next year he followed up with a 37/50 season...in 129 games. Or to put it another way, pro-rating Davis' 1986-87 seasons yields 40 HR and 81 SB over 162 games...crazy).

A lot of folks use Upton as a comp, but I think Adell has greater power potential. Maybe if you take Upton's 2011, probably his best year, and add 10-15 HR, that's Adell's potential. Or maybe, just maybe, he'll develop good plate discipline and end up with flavors of peak Gary Sheffield. Hard to imagine him hitting .300, though. Or another comp: Bobby Bonds, who is somewhat historically underrated, probably because of his son's greatness.

But yeah, he's going to be fun. Even if his flaws remain substantial, he's going to be a dynamic .250/.330/.500, 30 HR, 20 SB guy. 

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, True Grich said:

So, we're done with the Brandon Wood comparisons?

you know better

[T.G.]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

you know better

[HanfordGuy]

[Blarg]

You guys couldn't be happy for one fucking day.

Not one day.

[Stradling]

Just now, Blarg said:

You guys couldn't be happy for one fucking day.

Not one day.

Of course not.  

[Blarg]

You are stuck on a deserted Island for 4 months foraging for whatever food you might find and up washes a case of freshly roasted coffee beans. You are pretty excited, grind the beans on some rocks, boil it in some fresh spring water and sip it down in your Bamboo char from your half coconut mug while watching the sunset. It's near perfection, the waves, the breeze, the sunset, the coffee...

Next morning you get up, stare down at the beans and wonder if they were fair trade.

That's this thread.

[T.G.]

33 minutes ago, Blarg said:

You are stuck on a deserted Island for 4 months. 

Nothing good ever comes of that.  Ever.

Edited August 4, 2021 by True Grich

[Angel Dog and Beer]

Depends. What's the one album and one girl I can have on this island? 

[T.G.]

Just now, Angel Dog and Beer said:

Depends. What's the one album and one girl I can have on this island? 

Barry Mainlow's greatest hits.  Rosie O'Donnell.

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, True Grich said:

Barry Mainlow's greatest hits.  Rosie O'Donnell.

Hopefully these are shark infested waters.

[Angel Dog and Beer]

7 minutes ago, True Grich said:

Barry Mainlow's greatest hits.  Rosie O'Donnell.

Hmmm... better ask @Tank then. He likes Manilow. Probably Rosie too.  

[Tank]

2 minutes ago, Angel Dog and Beer said:

Hmmm... better ask @Tank then. He like Manilow. Probably Rosie too.  

indeed, i do like manilow.

rosie can go swim with the sharks, but it's possible even they have their standards.

[eligrba]

For the first two games back, Adell seems more aware of defensive fundamentals and his strike zone.  Those are the two areas he should have been aware of last year.  I am glad he is working on those things and hope he doesn't rely on his athleticism exclusively.

My concerns have passed.  Give him a full year of major league experience with this focus and let's see what happens.

 

[Angelsjunky]

18 hours ago, True Grich said:

Barry Mainlow's greatest hits.  Rosie O'Donnell.

Fuck. I was literally going to write just this (but was vacillating between Manilow and Julio Iglesias).

[Stradling]

Adell looked much more comfortable in the outfield.  Sure on the first shallow fly ball where he threw the bullet to the plate, it looked like he almost over ran that ball, but every other one he looked natural.  Last year, he looked a bit tentative.

[tdawg87]

He's obviously been working hard on his shortcomings to improve. Reminds me of someone. Can't remember who.

[Angel Dog and Beer]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

He's obviously been working hard on his shortcomings to improve. Reminds me of someone. Can't remember who.

Cals?

[T.G.]