Rodriguez vs. Detmers

[Angelsjunky]

Of course comparing the two is somewhat artificial and totally unnecessary, but considering that they're the Angels' top two pitching prospects and are both now in the rotation, I'm wondering what the collective geniouses of AW think. Pick the option that best fits your view.

[Angelsjunky]

As for me, I'm still going back and forth. Pretty sure Detmers has the higher floor, if only because of Rodriguez's injury history. But I'm not sure about upside. And I do like peanuts, either salted or sweet. Plain is boring.

[DMVol]

I am just thrilled we have young pitchers to have a poll about.....now do one on Sandoval and Barria....Hotdamn....

[WicketMaiden]

50 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

As for me, I'm still going back and forth. Pretty sure Detmers has the higher floor, if only because of Rodriguez's injury history. But I'm not sure about upside. And I do like peanuts, either salted or sweet. Plain is boring.

Can I have dry-roasted peanuts, and then dark chocolate covered ones for dessert? Thanks. 

[Stradling]

As for Arsenal it’s Rodriguez.  Here’s how I see it.  If it clicks and he has health Rodriguez will be a top of the rotation guy.  If it all clicks for Detmers he is a top of the rotation guy.  The difference to me is if it doesn’t all click or if they don’t have health.  In which case Detmers is still a starter while Rodriguez is a closer.  

[Angelsjunky]

10 minutes ago, Hells Rainbow said:

As for Arsenal it’s Rodriguez.  Here’s how I see it.  If it clicks and he has health Rodriguez will be a top of the rotation guy.  If it all clicks for Detmers he is a top of the rotation guy.  The difference to me is if it doesn’t all click or if they don’t have health.  In which case Detmers is still a starter while Rodriguez is a closer.  

I basically agree, although am a bit more hesitant about using "top of the rotation guy," as I think we should be a bit more cautious and consider a range of outcomes. Most outlets still project Rodriguez as a #3-4 or reliever, and Detmers as a #3. On the other hand, fan bias can be countered with lack of knowledge from non-fans. Guys like Longerhagen can't possibly keep up-to-date on every single prospect, so their published view is often outdated.

Anyhow, if push came to shove, I'd probably say that Rodriguez has a higher upside. But I'm far more confident in saying that he has a lower floor. And further, that the chances that he settles below his absolute upside are far greater than Detmers.

If Detmers manages to reduce HR, he's a #2, I think. If not, he's Andrew Heaney (a #3-4). Chances are he splits the difference, but towards the possible, and is either a borderline #2 or a very good #3. The worst-case scenario is that he's a passable #3/good #4, sort of like Heaney.

For Rodriguez, as you said, "if it clicks" just right, he's going to be really good, but I'd still say a #2 and probably not a true #1 (aka, Cy Young candidate). But the chances of him not reaching his potential are greater, and even a very good reliever is far less valuable than the #2-3 that Detmers should be.

In short: If both optimize their potential, I think Rodriguez is a bit better, but it will be close. If we take a moderate projection for both, they'll be similar in value. If both are closer to their floor, Detmers is better.

 

[Stradling]

Yea, @Angelsjunky we have done the, what is an ace, what is a #1 starter.  An Ace is Scherzer, deGrom, Buehler, type.   I guess for me a TOR arm is a #1-2 starter.  Someone that has overpowering stuff and an ERA between 2.75-3.25. A guy when he is on is going to be very tough to beat.  

[Taylor]

AJ voted for the "I don't know" option in his own poll.

[T.G.]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Of course comparing the two is totally unnecessary.

 

[Angelsjunky]

Just now, Hells Rainbow said:

Yea, @Angelsjunky we have done the, what is an ace, what is a #1 starter.  An Ace is Scherzer, deGrom, Buehler, type.   I guess for me a TOR arm is a #1-2 starter.  Someone that has overpowering stuff and an ERA between 2.75-3.25. A guy when he is on is going to be very tough to beat.  

How about this:

An ace, or true #1, is a Cy Young candidate, and is very hard to beat on any given day, with very few bad starts in a year.

A TOR (top-of-rotation) starter, or #1-2, is a guy who, with an average team, wins most of his starts, about two-thirds or more.

An MR( mid-rotation) starter, or #3-4, is a guy who gives an average team and even or better chance of winning.

An EOR (end-of-rotation) starter, or #5-6 starter, is someone who gives a less than average chance of winning for an average team, but can hold their own.

(I'm talking about team wins and losses, not pitcher wins and losses - and as a general rule; outliers exist, where an average team doesn't hit for a TOR).

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, Taylor said:

AJ voted for the "I don't know" option in his own poll.

Which is why I started the poll.

[Second Base]

Detmers should have little trouble going 100+ pitches every start with steady consistency. In 2022 and beyond, I picture him going 180 innings with low, manageable ERA. Something along the lines of 6-7 innings and 2 ER for 25-30 starts each year. 

Rodriguez, it's hard to say. Because his delivery does require some effort and he throws harder than Detmers, I picture him getting tired quicker and likely throwing 15-20 pitches less per start than Detmers. So something more like 140-150 innings and also, a low, manageable ERA. 

So if I had to choose one, it's Detmers because I feel like he'll handle more innings and still miss a ton of bats. 

[Taylor]

Just now, Angelsjunky said:

Which is why I started the poll.

This is the equivalent of the top surgeon in the world asking for surgical advice from a group of people whose main doctor visits involve gloves and turning and coughing.

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, Taylor said:

AJ voted for the "I don't know" option in his own poll.

Classic AJ, lots and lots of words to say, “I don’t know”

I guess it is better than other classic AJ, which is, “so and so is awesome, now lets enjoy the shit show”

[Taylor]

1 minute ago, Hells Rainbow said:

Classic AJ, lots and lots of words to say, “I don’t know”

I guess it is better than other classic AJ, which is, “so and so is awesome, now lets enjoy the shit show”

Maybe he's playing 5D chess by creating a jinx-proof thread.

[Angelsjunky]

20 minutes ago, Taylor said:

This is the equivalent of the top surgeon in the world asking for surgical advice from a group of people whose main doctor visits involve gloves and turning and coughing.

I know you're joking but no, it's not. First of all, I don't claim to be an expert; I like crowd-sourcing from AW, hearing what others have to say. I don't think my take is always right, and like learning stuff from people. In the case of this thread, I started it because I've been going back and forth and wanted to see if someone could convince me either way. 

19 minutes ago, Hells Rainbow said:

Classic AJ, lots and lots of words to say, “I don’t know”

I guess it is better than other classic AJ, which is, “so and so is awesome, now lets enjoy the shit show”

My first post had a short paragraph. If you don't like reading lots of words, don't read my longer posts. What can I say? I like talking baseball and I like to write.

I think we need a reaction emoji of Richard Nixon for "Dick." @Chuckster70?

[Stradling]

9 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I know you're joking but no, it's not. First of all, I don't claim to be an expert; I like crowd-sourcing from AW, hearing what others have to say. I don't think my take is always right, and like learning stuff from people. In the case of this thread, I started it because I've been going back and forth and wanted to see if someone could convince me either way. 

My first post had a short paragraph. If you don't like reading lots of words, don't read my longer posts. What can I say? I like talking baseball and I like to write.

I think we need a reaction emoji of Richard Nixon for "Dick." @Chuckster70?

I love your stuff.  I was joking because you chose “I don’t know”.  It is just kinda strange considering you put that much thought into it that you of all people usually have an opinion, which creates the awesome content you provide us.

[tdawg87]

I'm just happy we have both guys.

[angelsnationtalk]

They both have big upside but in their own way. Detmers has a Kershaw-like approach with a Kershaw/Zito curve and plays well with secondary pitches.

Rodriguez has a fastball that has very good movement. He could become a setup/closer at one point, but I love his stuff in the rotation. He looked great in his first start. 

Ohtani/Sandoval/Rodriguez/Detmers/Suarez/Bachman is one hell of a cheap and solid rotation. 

Add in an arm from Miami and they have something going. 

[rageous]

What happened to the supposed Detmers uptick on his fastball?

He was sitting at mostly 92 on his fastball on his start.

If he remains at 92 to 93 on his fastball, I definitely see C-Rod as having higher ceiling.

 

[UndertheHalo]

They both seem to have top of the rotation offerings.  Rodriguez has a better fastball.  Detmers curveball is probably the best pitch either of them have but Rodriguez’s breaking stuff is good and probably closer to Detmers than Detmers fastball is to Crod’s.  They both are very promising.  Nice to have them along with Bachman. 

Edited August 4, 2021 by UndertheHalo

[Mark PT]

On 8/4/2021 at 7:36 AM, Angelsjunky said:

As for me, I'm still going back and forth. Pretty sure Detmers has the higher floor, if only because of Rodriguez's injury history. But I'm not sure about upside. And I do like peanuts, either salted or sweet. Plain is boring.

With regards to the peanuts: is that with or without beer?

With beer, unsalted for me.