The Slider: A Key to Bundy & Canning's success

[Chuck]

Looking into the numbers, Canning and Bundy have shown both success on the mound and solid K rates based on slider & offspeed usage. 

Let's take a deeper look. 

Griffin Canning

Canning had a solid 2019 debut thanks mostly to a strong whiff rate on his slider, but then came the elbow trouble in spring training in 2020 that saw him throw the pitch less (2019: 29.2% vs. just 20.4% in 2020) and with lower velocity, which also resulted in a lower whiff rate on the pitch. The slider just didn't have same effectiveness, and the rest of his arsenal wasn't good enough to compensate due to a lower FB velo early on. 

That could have been a product of him not throwing his pitches at 100% due to fear of injuring his elbow to the point of requiring TJ surgery or because he felt just enough pain to fully let it loose. Canning mostly likely needed time to regain trust in his elbow because late in the year, he started snapping off that slider again, pairing it with an improved curveball for maximum effect & see a rise in his FB velo.

Canning's swinging-strike rate jumped from 9.9 in his first six starts to 14.5 in his final five, and with it, his K/9 jumped from 7.5 to 10.4.

Here is a good example of Canning late in the season against a good hitting Padres team where he generated a bunch of whiffs off his slider & an increase in fastball velo hitting 95 MPH throughout the game -- when he was 89-93 early on in the season. 

Dylan Bundy

You didn't have to be even a casual observer to know that Dylan Bundy would fall apart in 2020 when he didn't have his slider and/or changeup working.

Over Bundy's first four starts, he was riding high with a 1.57 ERA, walking just three across 28.2 innings. During this time, he threw his fastball just 39% of the time, his slider 30.5%, and his changeup 19% (while mixing in a curveball). Over his final eight starts, however, he pitched to a 4.62 ERA with 14 walks across 37 innings. He didn't have as good a feel for his slider during this stretch as he used it just 22% of the time. And therein lies the problem. When Bundy doesn't have that slider, he has to rely more on his fastball, which was down to a career-low 90.2 MPH last season.

Here's Bundy early on in this season. Note the ugly swings off his slider and changeup. 

Bundy did have a phenomenal season where he ranked eighth among qualified pitchers with a 0.69 HR/9 -- only two seasons removed from placing dead last in the category by a considerable margin. Playing home games at a more favorable ballpark was a factor, but it's also worth noting that Bundy has pitched to notable dropoffs in opponents' barrel rate, exit velocity and hard-hit percentage since the disastrous 2018 campaign. 

Here is an interview with Bundy last month where he talks about his offspeed stuff, the success he had in 2020 and how he can carry that forward in 2021. 

These two could be huge as it relates to the Angels success or failure this season. Add having a healthy Shohei Ohtani, solid middle of the rotation southpaws like Andrew Heaney & Jose Quintana & one of Jamie Barria or Alex Cobb to bolster the back end of the rotation -- the rotation could be much better than folks think if everyone pitches to their abilities with a solid defense playing behind them. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

The last part is the big if. But IF Ohtani is healthy, and even just 70 percent of what he was pre surgery, this rotation should be a lot better than anyone is thinking. And IF that happens, the team is going to be far better than anyone expects.

 

 

 

But IF .... 

[Second Base]

There's a lot of reason for optimism in this rotation. Yeah I know, today colored glasses, but this looks to me like the best Angels rotation in a long time. 

Bundy - Clearly knows what he needs to do to succeed, and it's completely doable. It's not some profound change, is there his off-speed pitches for strikes early. That's it. And he proved he can do it. 

Heaney - Contact years are always good motivation, and Heaney admitted his pitch selection needs to change. He may have his best season in a few years. 

Canning - As long as he's healthy, he's going to quickly develop into a solid mid rotation starter. Great second round selection. 

Quintana - The dude is rock solid. Outside of 2020, you know what you're getting. 170 innings and a low 4's ERA. Exactly what they need on the bottom half. 

Cobb - The trade flat out makes very little sense unless the Angels think they've identified something that will make him return to his mid-rotation form. And from the sound of things, they think they've got it pinpointed. Getting him out of the AL East, with a more deadened ball, and being a groundball pitcher in front of a great infield defense sets him up for as much success as he can. 

Ohtani - The ultimate wild card. If he pitches like he did in Japan, then he's a Cy Young candidate and clearly a staff ace. If he isn't healthy, he doesn't factor in. I don't see much in between with him. I think greatness awaits him if he's healthy. 

Barria - He's had doubters his entire career and two out of three years, he's been very good in the majors. 

The prospects - Sandoval had a lot trending in the right direction right now, and let's face it, lefties with starter arsenal and mid-90's heat don't grow on trees. Suarez has done upside. Naughton was utterly dominant in the Reds system before coming over. Faria and Guerra are veterans of nothing else. Detmers looks like he won't need much time at all before entering as a mid rotation starter, and Rodriguez had that sky high ceiling. They're both headed for AA and are expected to be ready at some point this year. 

Conclusion - This is going to be a sneaky-good staff with some depth to it. They won't dominate, but they won't need to. But it's also clear, they don't look like a bottom barrell staff either.

[T.G.]

Who knew?

C'mon... who really knew?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Chuck]

16 hours ago, T.G. said:

Who knew?

C'mon... who really knew?

I'm hungry now. 

[Chuck]

 

[Chuck]

 

[T.G.]

7 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

 

Is this like the time when Morales wanted to be known as Kendrys instead of Kendry?

[Chuck]

2 minutes ago, T.G. said:

Is this like the time when Morales wanted to be known as Kendrys instead of Kendry?

[T.G.]

[rafibomb]

44 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

 

Made a post kind of similar to what this is referring to and I’m pretty excited to see Canning’s repertoire this season. Looks like it will be a combination of his pitches from both the 2019 and 2020 season. He practically completely abandoned the 2019 slower curve in favor of a faster curve in 2020. I mentioned that he needs more separation in velocity to make timing more difficult for hitters which is something he went away from this past season.

 

Edited February 25, 2021 by rafibomb

[Chuck]

7 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

Made a post kind of similar to what this is referring to and I’m pretty excited to see Canning’s repertoire this season. Looks like it will be a combination of his pitches from both the 2019 and 2020 season. I mentioned that he needs more separation in velocity to make timing more difficult for hitters which is something he went away from this past season. 

 

Great thread @rafibomb. I'm bullish on Canning and feel like he's got a bit of Trevor Bauer in him down the road.

[rafibomb]

2 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Great thread @rafibomb. I'm bullish on Canning and feel like he's got a bit of Trevor Bauer in him down the road.

I was starting to settle on believing Canning is more of a mid-rotation to backend rotation guy but after seeing those tweets about using more of his pitches from 2019 I am buying stock this season. He can be a number 2 guy as his ceiling. This was a quote from an article I found a while back.

“If Canning can figure out how to mix his 2019 slider with his 2020 curve, he has the potential to make the leap into the upper echelon of starting pitchers. Thrown alongside a four seam fastball with impressive rise and a firm change with armside fade, Canning could legitimately be a superstar if he were able to put it all together. ”

[tdawg87]

Bundy gotta keep that 4 seamer percentage down and he'll be fine.

Canning reminds me a bit of Greinke, tbh. 

[rafibomb]

Canning's slider (2020 spike curve grip) in his first recent spring outing.

 

His 2021 slider that sits around 90 mph is now being classified as his cutter.

Edited March 5, 2021 by rafibomb

[tdawg87]

59 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

Canning's slider (2020 spike curve grip) in his first recent spring outing.

 

His 2021 slider that sits around 90 mph is now being classified as his cutter.

That is just absolute filth.

[Second Base]

This would take more luck than Angels fans are used to, but could you imagine for a second just how good this team is going to be if things actually went their way?

Canning breaks out, Bundy's breakout from last year is sustainable, Alex Cobb's adjustments recover what he lost, Jose Quintana is every bit the pitcher he's always been, Heaney is steady and Rod and Detmers both develop and are ready later this year? 

They're all well within the range of possibility. As Angels fans, we've been conditioned to expect the worst, some key guys will get hurt and off-season acquisitions will underperform, but for most teams, that's not reality. That's just been the Angels reality for five years now. Most of the time, it's somewhere in the middle. Some guys get hurt, some guys breakout. 

Even with neutral luck, like Canning breaks out, Heaney gets hurt and Quintana is ineffective, but Barria and Detmers step up, this still looks like a pretty solid team. 

Edited March 5, 2021 by Second Base

[T.G.]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

could you imagine for a second just how good this team is going to be if things actually went their way?

We aren't allowed to have nice things.  We can't think that way.

[Redondo]

24 minutes ago, True Grich said:

We aren't allowed to have nice things.  We can't think that way.

It sure seems that way at times

[Angelsjunky]

One of the guys at Fangraphs, Dan Szymbrowski, predicted last year that Bundy would breakout in 2020 if he made the "Frank Tanana adjustment" and stopped trying to pitch like he did when he could throw 100 mph. I guess he was right, and Bundy made the adjustment.

[Second Base]

Could we get someone from FG to predict an Alex Cobb "breakout" or "rediscovery" so that it's legitimized and I don't have to be alone in predicting this? 

I keep telling people, the Angels clearly see something and then he comes to camp with the BSOHL article about his visit to Driveline and hip rotation and increased velocity....

I just think Cobb is going to do really well. An ERA around 3.50. 

 

[Chuck]

Some good company to be in! 

Canning had a rough April, but so far in his two starts in May he's posted a  0.82 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. 

[UndertheHalo]

A bit obvious, but besides Ohtani.  Cannings development and success is deeply intertwined with whether the Angels make the playoffs or not.  Angels probably can’t do it without him being “good” - this year or next.  

Edited May 11, 2021 by UndertheHalo