Angels in on Jake Odorizzi

[Warfarin]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Odorizzi for 3/$39M

Richards for 2/$18M

= +$22M AAV

Maybe between the two of them we can get 30 starts.

 

This seems a bit unfair.

In the last 6 full seasons, the fewest amount of starts he has made is 28.  He has averaged 160 innings per year.

That seems rather good to me

[CanadianHalo]

Hard no on a Richards reunion. Aim higher or don’t bother 

[AngelsLakersFan]

2 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

Hard no on a Richards reunion. Aim higher or don’t bother 

So just like the 2020 off season...

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

32 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Odorizzi for 3/$39M

Richards for 2/$18M

= +$22M AAV

Maybe between the two of them we can get 30 starts.

 

Nothing Personal AJ, 

That has been our Front office Mantra over the last 6-8 seasons and it hasn't worked yet.

I believe that has started to irritate Arte as a fan and a owner. After watching Perry's first trade for Iglesias and history of working in other Front Offices he has the experience of negotiating and not reaching with his owners check book. If it is a top of the line starter through a trade or even a couple Type B's and a couple Bullpen pieces added. I don't believe his experience in working with Anthopoulos in Toronto or Atlanta will change much. Both Front Offices have been Value for the Dollar, which goes back to scouting and information on medicals and analytics. 

It coincides with his hiring's also with Watson, Tamin and Williams all who have been in Major League scouting.

A #1 is paramount that may be a Snell, Bauer or someone else. Or, a couple of Better 1B's like a Sugano, Gray.

I think we are in much better hands now.

[wopphil]

Bauer and Odorizzi would make for a huge overhaul of the rotation. 

[Warfarin]

12 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Nothing Personal AJ, 

That has been our Front office Mantra over the last 6-8 seasons and it hasn't worked yet.

I believe that has started to irritate Arte as a fan and a owner. After watching Perry's first trade for Iglesias and history of working in other Front Offices he has the experience of negotiating and not reaching with his owners check book. If it is a top of the line starter through a trade or even a couple Type B's and a couple Bullpen pieces added. I don't believe his experience in working with Anthopoulos in Toronto or Atlanta will change much. Both Front Offices have been Value for the Dollar, which goes back to scouting and information on medicals and analytics. 

I think we are in much better hands now.

I agree.  He has worked with one of the brightest minds in the game for a decade.  I think he has learned a lot about "value for the dollar," as you said, and knows the best way to win isn't to just hand out huge contracts to the biggest name coming off the best year.

For fun, let's pretend that Odorizzi and Bauer were both free agents at the same time, after the 2019 offseason.

Odorizzi was coming off a 4.3 fWAR season, Bauer off a 3.3 fWAR season.

Bauer would probably still get the better contract, based off of his career track record, but I would imagine the two contracts would be a lot closer than they are projected to be now, with Odorizzi rumored at a 11-13mil AAV deal for 2-3 years and Bauer at a 25-30mil AAV deal for 5-6 years.

Minasian has likely learned from his predecessor that it's not a great practice to bid on the services of someone coming off their best season, but rather, someone who is coming off a bit more of an off-year, but does have a track record of success.

Again, it's not like Odorizzi is an injury-plagued pitcher.  He's been a very solid SP2/SP3 type over the years.

Even if we "only" sign Odorizzi and "only" trade for Gray (who isn't really an SP1), we have essentially 3-4 guys who can deliver very good quality starts and can be classified as SP2/SP3 type pitchers - Gray, Odorizzi, Bundy, Heaney, with Ohtani being a bit of a wild card who has SP1 upside.

Round that rotation out with Canning and Barria, and have Sandoval + Suarez in AAA ready to step in whenever someone is injured, and we suddenly have a much deeper rotation that can have good quality SPs ready to step in whenever needed.

[Erstad Grit]

11 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Bauer and Odorizzi would make for a huge overhaul of the rotation. 

Agreed

I wanted Odorizzi last year before he accepted the QO.

This would make a guy like Suzuki enough at catcher and any drop-off from Simmons to Iglesias (I actually think Iglesias will have a better year) manageable. 

 

[Angel Oracle]

With the new regime’s inclusion of MLB scouting being emphasized, maybe trades and FA acquisitions work out better than they did over the past decade?

[Warfarin]

8 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

With the new regime’s inclusion of MLB scouting being emphasized, maybe trades and FA acquisitions work out better than they did over the past decade?

Right.  I think it is unfair to say that since Eppler bombed at finding FA SPs, that Minasian is doomed to the same fate, simply because he isn't throwing a ton of money to the best SP available.

Let's give Minasian a chance and see what he comes up before assuming it'll fail miserably.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

4 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Right.  I think it is unfair to say that since Eppler bombed at finding FA SPs, that Minasian is doomed to the same fate, simply because he isn't throwing a ton of money to the best SP available.

Let's give Minasian a chance and see what he comes up before assuming it'll fail miserably.

Odorizzi didn't have a serious arm issue last season which bodes well his issue was in his chest. But, depending on what it is, thoracic injury? It may be an issue similar to Matt Harvey? Maybe, DOC can help us here?

Another free agent with a history with Minasian is Mike Foltynewicz former Brave also didn't have any arm issues but had a problem holding weight after the birth of a child which lead to a drop in Velo on his Fastball he went from 96mph to 90-91mph. If he passes a physical and no issues with the arm then maybe weight/diet program with some time working with Mickey Callaway could bring him back or at least bring the fastball up a couple of ticks to 93-94mph.

[Warfarin]

15 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Odorizzi didn't have a serious arm issue last season which bodes well his issue was in his chest. But, depending on what it is, thoracic injury? It may be an issue similar to Matt Harvey? Maybe, DOC can help us here?

Another free agent with a history with Minasian is Mike Foltynewicz former Brave also didn't have any arm issues but had a problem holding weight after the birth of a child which lead to a drop in Velo on his Fastball he went from 96mph to 90-91mph. If he passes a physical and no issues with the arm then maybe weight/diet program with some time working with Mickey Callaway could bring him back or at least bring the fastball up a couple of ticks to 93-94mph.

Odorizzi was placed on the IL to start the year as he suffered a back strain due to the abbreviated summer camp.  Several starts after he returned, he got hit by a line drive, which is why he missed another month.  I'd hardly say the latter was his fault.

Then, to finish the year, he had a blister.  Prior to this year though, as I mentioned, he has started 28+ games for 6 straight years and averaged a bit over 160 innings.  Again, that paints the picture of a fairly healthy SP, and one who is as good a bet as any to stay healthy.

[Docwaukee]

as always, it depends on the deal.  3/30?  sure.  4/60?  NFW. 

he's not bad but he's not that good. 

5 inning starter the last 4 years so they've limited his exposure to 3rd time through and even still with an ERA and FIP above 4 (4.12 and 4.34 respectively).  

Entering his age 31yo season. 

To me, he's that mid tier starter to avoid unless you get a very good deal.   An Ian Kennedy, Scott Kazmir, Alex Cobb, Brandon McCarthy, Matt Garza type.  

So stay away from four years and more than 36 mil.  If not, then pass pass pass.    

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

as always, it depends on the deal.  3/30?  sure.  4/60?  NFW. 

he's not bad but he's not that good. 

5 inning starter the last 4 years so they've limited his exposure to 3rd time through and even still with an ERA and FIP above 4 (4.12 and 4.34 respectively).  

Entering his age 31yo season. 

To me, he's that mid tier starter to avoid unless you get a very good deal.   An Ian Kennedy, Scott Kazmir, Alex Cobb, Brandon McCarthy, Matt Garza type.  

So stay away from four years and more than 36 mil.  If not, then pass pass pass.    

I'd be totally shocked if anyone gives him 4 years.  I actually think he should probably get 2 years + a vesting option, based on IP.  Maybe a 2/26 with an option for 14mil in 2023 based on IP.

[Erstad Grit]

21 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

as always, it depends on the deal.  3/30?  sure.  4/60?  NFW. 

he's not bad but he's not that good. 

5 inning starter the last 4 years so they've limited his exposure to 3rd time through and even still with an ERA and FIP above 4 (4.12 and 4.34 respectively).  

Entering his age 31yo season. 

To me, he's that mid tier starter to avoid unless you get a very good deal.   An Ian Kennedy, Scott Kazmir, Alex Cobb, Brandon McCarthy, Matt Garza type.  

So stay away from four years and more than 36 mil.  If not, then pass pass pass.    

I'll predict 4/48

I mean Smiley got 1/11 and Minor 2/18. Odorizzi is in a much different class imo

[BTH]

8 hours ago, Second Base said:

I think if I made any guesses as to how this plays out from right now, mid December, I'd say it's going to be Jake Odorizzi and Sonny Gray, likely aging another 20-25 million in payroll and then another bullpen signing for around 6 million. Someone like Brad Hand to serve as an 8th inning set up for Raisel Iglesias.

I think that's an optimistic outlook, IMO. I don't think the Angels will actually do that much, but I'd be thrilled if they did.

[Lazorko Saves]

1 hour ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Foltynewicz ... had a problem holding weight after the birth of a child which lead to a drop in Velo on his Fastball

[AngelsLakersFan]

2 minutes ago, Lazorko Saves said:

hey it's 2020

[Cosmo_Kramer]

Odorizzi is someone to me who could fill the Heaney/Bundy holes next year.

Still need a top guy though

[Second Base]

58 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I think that's an optimistic outlook, IMO. I don't think the Angels will actually do that much, but I'd be thrilled if they did.

Two starters and one more reliever? I didn't think I was being overly optimistic. I'd be pretty disappointed in anything less.

 

[Angelsjunky]

7 hours ago, Warfarin said:

This seems a bit unfair.

In the last 6 full seasons, the fewest amount of starts he has made is 28.  He has averaged 160 innings per year.

That seems rather good to me

I was being facetious.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

as always, it depends on the deal.  3/30?  sure.  4/60?  NFW. 

he's not bad but he's not that good. 

5 inning starter the last 4 years so they've limited his exposure to 3rd time through and even still with an ERA and FIP above 4 (4.12 and 4.34 respectively).  

Entering his age 31yo season. 

To me, he's that mid tier starter to avoid unless you get a very good deal.   An Ian Kennedy, Scott Kazmir, Alex Cobb, Brandon McCarthy, Matt Garza type.  

So stay away from four years and more than 36 mil.  If not, then pass pass pass.    

It's precisely that mid-tier type that has been the bane of our collective off-season experience under Eppler. Sometimes, I got the feeling that he was trying to outmaneuver the market and it ended up biting him in the ass most of the time, and not just in terms of pitching. Maybin, Nava, Gentry, Yunel Escobar, Danny Espinoza, Ben Revere, Ian Kindler, Luis Valbuena, all in conjunction with Ricky Nolasco, Julio Teheran, Cahill, Harvey....

Whenever Eppler went after anything mid tier, he collassally failed. He had essentially one success and that was Dylan Bundy. It doesn't mean our new GM will have the same misfortune, but I do think it outlines a specific class of player that GM's need to avoid, if they can. 

I've always loved Iglesias' bat speed and swing. Hopefully he performs better than others are anticipating.

[Angelsjunky]

7 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Nothing Personal AJ, 

That has been our Front office Mantra over the last 6-8 seasons and it hasn't worked yet.

I believe that has started to irritate Arte as a fan and a owner. After watching Perry's first trade for Iglesias and history of working in other Front Offices he has the experience of negotiating and not reaching with his owners check book. If it is a top of the line starter through a trade or even a couple Type B's and a couple Bullpen pieces added. I don't believe his experience in working with Anthopoulos in Toronto or Atlanta will change much. Both Front Offices have been Value for the Dollar, which goes back to scouting and information on medicals and analytics. 

It coincides with his hiring's also with Watson, Tamin and Williams all who have been in Major League scouting.

A #1 is paramount that may be a Snell, Bauer or someone else. Or, a couple of Better 1B's like a Sugano, Gray.

I think we are in much better hands now.

I basically agree, except that the Angels need contingency plans. Bauer might want to play in NY or SF, and the Rays' asking price for Snell might be too high. Odorizzi/Richards is a decent contingency plan, that would give the Angels a ton of depth, even if lacking that true #1.  Like so:

Opening Day Rotation: Bundy, Odorizzi, Richards, Heaney, Canning, Ohtani

Bullpen/AAA: Barria, Sandoval, Peters, Suarez, Pena

Prospects: Detmers, C Rodriguez, Ortega, Yan

Having Barria and Sandoval as your 7th and 8th starters isn't a bad position to be in.

 

[stormngt]

10 hours ago, Warfarin said:

This is why it is critical to have layers of SP depth.

Every team has issues keeping their SPs healthy, even the best ones.  Most of the very good teams have 8-9 SPs, with #6-9 in AAA with options, such that they can be recalled and pitch right away.

Any FA SP will come with a degree of injury risk.  Odorizzi has been fairly healthy on the whole, but not last year.

If we acquire, say, Snell and sign Odorizzi, we prospectively enter camp with Snell, Bundy, Heaney, Odorizzi, Canning, Barria, Ohtani, Sandoval, Suarez, which gives us 9 SPs.

Barria doesn't have options, but I'm going to guess not everyone will emerge from ST 100% healthy, so there's a chance he could crack the rotation from the start.  If not, then he can start off in the pen, and Sandoval/Suarez can be stretched out, in AAA, ready to jump in whenever the inevitable injuries hit.

Can someone explain why Barria doesn't have options? According baseball reference he has only played in the majors three years and he is still young.

[Docwaukee]

6 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Can someone explain why Barria doesn't have options? According baseball reference he has only played in the majors three years and he is still young.

service time and options are two different things.  

If a player on the 40 man gets called up even for a day, that counts as having used an option year.  

[Second Base]

26 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I basically agree, except that the Angels need contingency plans. Bauer might want to play in NY or SF, and the Rays' asking price for Snell might be too high. Odorizzi/Richards is a decent contingency plan, that would give the Angels a ton of depth, even if lacking that true #1.  Like so:

Opening Day Rotation: Bundy, Odorizzi, Richards, Heaney, Canning, Ohtani

Bullpen/AAA: Barria, Sandoval, Peters, Suarez, Pena

Prospects: Detmers, C Rodriguez, Ortega, Yan

Having Barria and Sandoval as your 7th and 8th starters isn't a bad position to be in.

 

That might actually be a more realistic outlook too. Very few people expect the Rays to make Snell available. The Cubs aren't eager to deal Kris Bryant and it seems logical to say they aren't intent on dealing Darvish just yet either. Stroman and Gausman are off the market already, and the Reds needed to shed payroll, so they dealt Raisel. They might actually be fine financially moving forward with Sonny Gray. The Rockies haven't done anything to suggest they're going to deal Marquez and rebuild, not with Story and Arenado on the roster.

The market for good starting pitching is already dwindling down to nothing. Sure, Trevor Bauer is the prize, but if not him, then it very much becomes choosing from the crop of Musgrave, Quintana, Odorizzi, and Richards.

It's very easy to envision a scenario where Minasian is forced to play into that mid-tier bracket that burns so many GM's. But it might actually be preferable if those mid-tier guys end up coming in on shorter deals because at some point, if they're healthy, you're going to want to give Detmers and Rodriguez a shot in the rotation. That might be in 2021. Or, what if Barria or Sandoval breakout? 

Not being optimistic about it, but Odorizzi and Richards might be realistic.

Edited December 16, 2020 by Second Base