How much can the Angels really spend for 2021?

[Docwaukee]

So I thought I'd do a little more math.  A bit simpler this time.  

Let's take a look at 2021 payroll and it's probably worth looking at 2022 and beyond as well

The Angels currently have four player under contract for 2021.  

Trout - 37.1m 
Rendon - 28.07m
Pujols - 30m
Upton - 23m

For a total of 118.17m  

The arb numbers are more difficult to estimate but I'll take a stab at it.  

Bundy from 5m to 10m
Heaney from 4.3m to 7m
Robles from 3.85m to 4m
Bedrosian from 2.8m to 4m
Andriese from 1.4m to 2.3m
Noe Ramirez from 900k to 1.4m
Stassi from 800k to 2m
Middleton from 800k to 1.3m

for a total in about 28m in arb estimates bringing the total to about 146m  

That's 12 rostered players.  The other 14 or so players will cost a total of about 7m bringing the overall total to about 153m.  

If I had to guess, I don't seen the halos shelling out 4m for Robles next year so that's a savings that drops the total to about 150m.  

The CBT number is about the same as Rendon's salary is below by about the same about that Albert and Upton's salary is above.  Plus about 15m in bennys we are around 165m relative to the 210m CBT threshold.  

So let's say that Arte's budget for 2021 is a nice round 190m.  Which would still leave the team about 5m below the cap.  

Leaving about 40m or so to spend this off season.  

That's the good news.  

 

For 2022, Albert's 30m comes off the books.  Rendon's salary goes up by 8.6m and Upton's goes up by 5m.  On top of that, Bundy, Heaney, Andriese, Robles (if he's still around), and Bedrosian become free agents.  So if you're going to retain Bundy and Heaney, you can kiss goodbye any money coming off the book from Albert's departure.  

Plus, assume arb raises for Stassi, and maybe Middleton AND, Pena, Mayers, Ohtani, Fletcher, Buttrey, Barria, Barreto and Canning all become first year arb eligible.  That's probably means about 10-15m added.  So between that and the Rendon and Upton raises, the Albert money is gone.  

If you want to bring back Bundy and Heaney, then it's likely going to cost you another 10-15 mil.  At least.  

So 2022 is where payroll starts to get a little tricky.  If they're gonna add a big free agent next year, then they better be right because that could be the last chance to add for a bit unless payroll increases.  

 

[Second Base]

I think most people expect owners to offset financial losses from this year by lowering payroll in the upcoming seasons. 

So Arte may not be spending anything this off-season. Or maybe he smells blood in the water and sees an opportunity to comfortably outspend the opposition without hurting payroll and adding the right talent to the roster. 

I think the likely result is that he'll spend less to compensate, but not completely cutting his GM off from FA. Just exercising frugality. Which if I had to guess, means no Bauer or Stroman.

Edited September 24, 2020 by Second Base

[totdprods]

11 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I think most people expect owners to offset financial losses from this year by lowering payroll in the upcoming seasons. 

So Arte may not be spending anything this off-season. Or maybe he smells blood in the water and sees an opportunity to comfortably outspend the opposition without hurting payroll and adding the right talent to the roster. 

I think the likely result is that he'll spend less to compensate, but not completely cutting his GM off from FA. Just exercising frugality. Which if I had to guess, means no Bauer or Stroman.

I unfortunately agree - I am not anticipating there being much money to spend. Stroman is about the top of what we'll be able to afford, I think, and that's only if his market winds up being more depressed than expected - which could happen with a cold free agent climate and concerns over his missed season.

Bauer will simply make too much, unless he decides to go for a long-term deal and the Angels backload it sufficiently. I don't expect that though.

A trade for an impact arm is more likely, and I think that applies no matter who the GM, even Eppler. He'll feel some pressure and he'll explore what names like Marsh, Adams, Rengifo, especially Thaiss, and even Adell or Detmers, can get back. 

[Angel Oracle]

Hoping that Detmers will be ready by the second half of 2021, which then means only one of Bundy and Heaney needs to be re-signed and the other could be dealt by the trade deadline to shore up the future and/or get a remaining piece of the puzzle.

Bundy/Heaney, Gausman, Canning, Detmers, and Barria 

Sandoval, either rotation or bullpen

[BTH]

I normally wouldn't expect Arte to spend in this situation because owners probably will spend less, but he might have to if he wants Dombrowski as his GM. It's gonna be a lot harder for Dombrowski to help turn this team into a playoff team if he can't spend any money, and Dombrowski may not take the job unless Arte commits to spending money.

[Lou]

Bauer isn't backloading shit. 

[eligrba]

34 minutes ago, Lou said:

Bauer isn't backloading shit. 

Is he backloading @tdawg87?

 

 

 

 

Thank you......I’m here all week.

[Second Base]

6 hours ago, totdprods said:

I unfortunately agree - I am not anticipating there being much money to spend. Stroman is about the top of what we'll be able to afford, I think, and that's only if his market winds up being more depressed than expected - which could happen with a cold free agent climate and concerns over his missed season.

Bauer will simply make too much, unless he decides to go for a long-term deal and the Angels backload it sufficiently. I don't expect that though.

A trade for an impact arm is more likely, and I think that applies no matter who the GM, even Eppler. He'll feel some pressure and he'll explore what names like Marsh, Adams, Rengifo, especially Thaiss, and even Adell or Detmers, can get back. 

The thing I like about Eppler, is that he isn't arrogant, not insistent that it's his way and he's always right. Dipoto needed that, and Billy has it. 

He's smart enough to understand that he messed up, not chasing pitching harder in FA, not drafting it earlier. Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh, Jordyn Adams and Jeremiah Jackson have the potential to be elite, impact players and Billy doesn't regret drafting them. But if we're being real, this team's future would be better off if two of them were swapped out for a Detmers or Canning type of starting pitcher. 

The Angels have plenty of arms. You know that. But that depth is of the Naughton, Suarez, Sandoval, Barria variety. Even Chris Rodriguez and Jose Soriano aren't at the level we need. The Angels would be well suited if they had a couple top 100 prospects on the mound in AA and AAA right now. 

Adams, Jones and Thaiss won't land them that. But I do think they'd be enough for 2 years of a solid #3 starter. You throw that in the mix with a healthy Ohtani, Bundy, developing Canning, Sandoval, Barria and Detmers, Heaney.... And you might just have enough to get back to the playoffs.

[Angelsjunky]

As AO said, the Angels won't keep both Bundy and Heaney - maybe neither, depending. They've got Detmers, C Rod, Soriano, and Yan coming up. By 2022, Canning and Sandoval should be solid #3 types, similar to Heaney and Bundy (Canning is close). Detmers has similar potential. Who knows, if these guys pan out the Angels can move Fletcher back to 2B and sign one of the crazy-ass SS free agents of 21-22.

[mmc]

[Angel Oracle]

Which is pretty much split up equally between the Halos/AngelStadium and everything else.

[Warfarin]

6 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

As AO said, the Angels won't keep both Bundy and Heaney - maybe neither, depending. They've got Detmers, C Rod, Soriano, and Yan coming up. By 2022, Canning and Sandoval should be solid #3 types, similar to Heaney and Bundy (Canning is close). Detmers has similar potential. Who knows, if these guys pan out the Angels can move Fletcher back to 2B and sign one of the crazy-ass SS free agents of 21-22.

I agree with this.  I'm going to link Cot's contracts, which I think is the best resource for looking at salaries + luxury tax:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VGOfP7l110-tNq5CX0Gp3NCnDqj1MwOQOfanxNZGBdI/edit#gid=1520401900

Looking at multiple years worth of salary and projected luxury tax, realistically, I can see them adding someone like Gausman AND re-signing one of Bundy or Heaney.

Let's say Gausman costs ~12-15mil/yr in AAV for 3 years, and let's say Bundy has another very good year and ends up costing ~16mil/yr in AAV for 5 years.

If you project out the salaries, and assume that most of the 2021 free agency class departs, we can probably still hover in the 5-10mil under-the-tax zone, but that's probably about it.  Which means, realistically, we need a lot of internal growth.

So, projecting out our 2021 and 2022 teams:

2021 Offense:  Fletcher SS, Walsh 1B, Trout CF, Rendon 3B, Ohtani DH, Upton LF, Ward RF, Stassi C, Rengifo 2B

2021 Bench:  Thaiss IF/OF, Barreto IF/OF, Pujols 1B, Bemboom C

2021 Rotation:  Bundy, Gausman, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Ohtani*, with Sandoval, Suarez as AAA depth

2021 Bullpen:  Mayers, Pena, Andriese, Buttrey, Robles*, Bedrosian, Barnes, Middleton, Ramirez, Millner, Reyes, Quijada, etc..

2022 Offense:  Fletcher SS, Walsh 1B, Trout CF, Rendon 3B, Ohtani DH, Adell LF, Marsh RF, Stassi C, Rengifo 2B

2022 Bench:  Thaiss IF/OF, Barreto IF/OF, Ward IF/OF, Upton OF, Bemboom C

2022 Rotation:  Bundy (re-signed), Gausman, Detmers, Canning, Barria, Ohtani*

2022 Bullpen:  Mayers, Pena, Buttrey, Soriano, Yan, Barnes, Ramirez, Reyes, Sandoval (?), etc..

 

So, long story short - I think the pieces are there to be competitive.  It does require some continued internal growth, and we should re-sign one of Bundy or Heaney.  I do think we can afford to sign a significant FA SP, but others have mentioned above, likely not Bauer.

[Angels in 2030]

$0

[stormngt]

12 hours ago, cvdog said:

Sign Dom and find a way to back load Bauer. I know it's a longshot but Stroman is not the answer. This team must sign a dominant stud ace pitcher. Bundy can be your #2 with Heaney #3. Let Canning, Barria and Detmers battle for the last 2 spots. Albert's contract can't come off fast enough. If Walsh, Ward and Upton can pick up where they left off this team will compete. And I don't mean .500 compete. 

What the hell does Barria need to do to be assured a spot in the rotation.  2 seasons middle rotation performance.  4.02ERA as a starter (includingvthecyear he was fucked over by Assmus.

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

What the hell does Barria need to do to be assured a spot in the rotation.  2 seasons middle rotation performance.  4.02ERA as a starter (includingvthecyear he was fucked over by Assmus.

At some point Barria has to be held personally accountable for his lousy performance last year.  It’s like blaming Scioscia for “ruining” Brandon Wood, in other words its nonsense.  Look if he got screwed out of a spot in the rotation last year, he should have gone down to the minors and dominated.  Instead he performed worse in AAA than anyone did at the major league level. He has to own that and fans should at least acknowledge that.  If he was unprofessional enough to mope his way through AAA then that isn’t on Ausmus, that is solely on Barria.  

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

What the hell does Barria need to do to be assured a spot in the rotation.  2 seasons middle rotation performance.  4.02ERA as a starter (includingvthecyear he was fucked over by Assmus.

I think he'll have a spot.  Key thing to note:  he will not have anymore options as of next year, so he'll have to be with the club or DFA'd.  Considering his performance this year and in 2018, I'd say he'll be in our rotation and counted on to be our #4/#5.

[Angelsjunky]

5 hours ago, Warfarin said:

I agree with this.  I'm going to link Cot's contracts, which I think is the best resource for looking at salaries + luxury tax:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VGOfP7l110-tNq5CX0Gp3NCnDqj1MwOQOfanxNZGBdI/edit#gid=1520401900

Looking at multiple years worth of salary and projected luxury tax, realistically, I can see them adding someone like Gausman AND re-signing one of Bundy or Heaney.

Let's say Gausman costs ~12-15mil/yr in AAV for 3 years, and let's say Bundy has another very good year and ends up costing ~16mil/yr in AAV for 5 years.

If you project out the salaries, and assume that most of the 2021 free agency class departs, we can probably still hover in the 5-10mil under-the-tax zone, but that's probably about it.  Which means, realistically, we need a lot of internal growth.

So, projecting out our 2021 and 2022 teams:

2021 Offense:  Fletcher SS, Walsh 1B, Trout CF, Rendon 3B, Ohtani DH, Upton LF, Ward RF, Stassi C, Rengifo 2B

2021 Bench:  Thaiss IF/OF, Barreto IF/OF, Pujols 1B, Bemboom C

2021 Rotation:  Bundy, Gausman, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Ohtani*, with Sandoval, Suarez as AAA depth

2021 Bullpen:  Mayers, Pena, Andriese, Buttrey, Robles*, Bedrosian, Barnes, Middleton, Ramirez, Millner, Reyes, Quijada, etc..

2022 Offense:  Fletcher SS, Walsh 1B, Trout CF, Rendon 3B, Ohtani DH, Adell LF, Marsh RF, Stassi C, Rengifo 2B

2022 Bench:  Thaiss IF/OF, Barreto IF/OF, Ward IF/OF, Upton OF, Bemboom C

2022 Rotation:  Bundy (re-signed), Gausman, Detmers, Canning, Barria, Ohtani*

2022 Bullpen:  Mayers, Pena, Buttrey, Soriano, Yan, Barnes, Ramirez, Reyes, Sandoval (?), etc..

 

So, long story short - I think the pieces are there to be competitive.  It does require some continued internal growth, and we should re-sign one of Bundy or Heaney.  I do think we can afford to sign a significant FA SP, but others have mentioned above, likely not Bauer.

Good stuff. I would only add that I think Chris Rodriguez will figure into the bullpen as soon as later next year, and the rotation by 2022. I think he'll advance fast - health permitting. 

 

[stormngt]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

At some point Barria has to be held personally accountable for his lousy performance last year.  It’s like blaming Scioscia for “ruining” Brandon Wood, in other words its nonsense.  Look if he got screwed out of a spot in the rotation last year, he should have gone down to the minors and dominated.  Instead he performed worse in AAA than anyone did at the major league level. He has to own that and fans should at least acknowledge that.  If he was unprofessional enough to mope his way through AAA then that isn’t on Ausmus, that is solely on Barria.  

I think Barria was held accountable for his poor performance in 2019.  That's why he wasn't considered an immediate starter in 2020.  Both Sandaval and Suarez were given the opportunity to start before Barria.

However three years of 4.02 ERA as a starter (including the miserable 2019 year) should be enough proof for anyone.

Barria was pur best starter in 2018.  He was our 2nd best starter in 2020.  Enough discussion!

[stormngt]

3 hours ago, Warfarin said:

I think he'll have a spot.  Key thing to note:  he will not have anymore options as of next year, so he'll have to be with the club or DFA'd.  Considering his performance this year and in 2018, I'd say he'll be in our rotation and counted on to be our #4/#5.

To be honest I would look to see if he can be package with another good prospect like Adam's for a front end starter.  I am guessing he should have fours control since he has yet to play a full season.

[kevinb]

15 hours ago, Second Base said:

The thing I like about Eppler, is that he isn't arrogant, not insistent that it's his way and he's always right. Dipoto needed that, and Billy has it. 

He's smart enough to understand that he messed up, not chasing pitching harder in FA, not drafting it earlier. Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh, Jordyn Adams and Jeremiah Jackson have the potential to be elite, impact players and Billy doesn't regret drafting them. But if we're being real, this team's future would be better off if two of them were swapped out for a Detmers or Canning type of starting pitcher. 

The Angels have plenty of arms. You know that. But that depth is of the Naughton, Suarez, Sandoval, Barria variety. Even Chris Rodriguez and Jose Soriano aren't at the level we need. The Angels would be well suited if they had a couple top 100 prospects on the mound in AA and AAA right now. 

Adams, Jones and Thaiss won't land them that. But I do think they'd be enough for 2 years of a solid #3 starter. You throw that in the mix with a healthy Ohtani, Bundy, developing Canning, Sandoval, Barria and Detmers, Heaney.... And you might just have enough to get back to the playoffs.

Maybe theres a possibility. Eppler stays as GM but Dombroski comes in as President of baseball operations. I doubt that's how it works but it could. 

[nate]

It doesn't matter because even with 100m to spend you can't fix pitching.  Only way to do it is to grow guys in the farm and then just fill small holes with FA.

Top that off with the Angels really hoping for continued performances from Walsh, Ward and Stassi.

Just face it, this team will not be a contender until the farm produces more pitching.

[Stradling]

7 minutes ago, nate said:

It doesn't matter because even with 100m to spend you can't fix pitching.  Only way to do it is to grow guys in the farm and then just fill small holes with FA.

Top that off with the Angels really hoping for continued performances from Walsh, Ward and Stassi.

Just face it, this team will not be a contender until the farm produces more pitching.

Which could happen as early as 2022, with Detmers and Chris Rodriguez.  

[nate]

14 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Which could happen as early as 2022, with Detmers and Chris Rodriguez.  

I hope so.  I think Detmers could even be here next season.

Relief pitching needs to be addressed too.

[DMVol]

19 hours ago, Game 6 said:

....So, how do the Angels spend their $30 M this offseason?

If you spend it on Bauer, it will be a very short offseason....

[Stradling]

I think if you sign Bauer then things get interesting.   I think it shows every intention of going for it and then you start to see opportunities to improve via trades.