2020 Election

[Adam]

Just now, Spin Rate said:

Even in my more conservative (Bumpy) days, I was never very economically conservative.

That’s not what I was referring to. Your assumption as to the intent of my question was very Twitter 101

[Taylor]

Just now, Adam said:

That’s not what I was referring to. Your assumption as to the intent of my question was very Twitter 101

I'm not even on Twitter. But yeah, it was douchey to assume you were about to go all "pick yourself up by your own bootstraps" on Jars. If it were Blarg or Larry, that assumption would have been fairer.

[Adam]

5 minutes ago, Spin Rate said:

I'm not even on Twitter. But yeah, it was douchey to assume you were about to go all "pick yourself up by your own bootstraps" on Jars. If it were Blarg or Larry, that assumption would have been fairer.

I'm guessing you didn't choose your career based on earning potential

[Amazing Larry]

59 minutes ago, Spin Rate said:

The Economist gives Joe Biden a 91% chance of winning.

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

Have at it, kids.

https://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2016/10/18/presidential-forecast-updates/newsletter.html

[Taylor]

4 minutes ago, Lhalo said:

https://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2016/10/18/presidential-forecast-updates/newsletter.html

What did the Economist say?

[Amazing Larry]

I don't give a shit to be honest. I don't believe any of these polls.

[Taylor]

10 minutes ago, Adam said:

I'm guessing you didn't choose your career based on earning potential

Nope, but I was fortunate to have upper middle class parents who ensured I went to a good college and was set up to get a job in whichever field I chose, based on my skills.

Not everyone has the same story as me, so when people talk about how tough it's been for them, I tend to believe them. 

[Taylor]

Just now, Lhalo said:

I don't give a shit to be honest. I don't believe any of these polls.

Do you think they're intentionally fraudulent or just that polling doesn't work?

Polling was spot-on for the 2018 midterms.

[Amazing Larry]

4 minutes ago, Spin Rate said:

Do you think they're intentionally fraudulent or just that polling doesn't work?

Polling was spot-on for the 2018 midterms.

Not sure. Don't care.

[Adam]

1 minute ago, Spin Rate said:

Nope, but I was fortunate to have upper middle class parents who ensured I went to a good college and was set up to get a job in whichever field I chose, based on my skills.

Not everyone has the same story as me, so when people talk about how tough it's been for them, I tend to believe them. 

Amazing how impactful having two thoughtful parents can be on a child's life. Too bad a large portion of the population would consider it racist to make that correlation or advocate for the nuclear family as a solution to societal problems.

[Adam]

4 minutes ago, Lhalo said:

Not sure. Don't care.

I don't believe the polls either. I do think there is a large group of Trump voters who wouldn't tell anyone, but I also think the coup has been pretty effective. 

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

I think Trump's done buts stranger things have happened.  After the dust settles and the shoe is on the other foot people acting like their lives will suddenly be better will see how little it really matters.  I didn't have two parents, grew up below the poverty line in OC and made it through college while working.  Anyone in this country still has the ability to make a better life for themselves but that isn't accomplished by voting for one party or the other.  99.99% of us are responsible for our own lot in life not politicians.. 

[Adam]

13 minutes ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

I think Trump's done buts stranger things have happened.  After the dust settles and the shoe is on the other foot people acting like their lives will suddenly be better will see how little it really matters.  I didn't have two parents, grew up below the poverty line in OC and made it through college while working.  Anyone in this country still has the ability to make a better life for themselves but that isn't accomplished by voting for one party or the other.  99.99% of us are responsible for our own lot in life not politicians. 

This is gonna be a fun next couple of years. We're probably going to be safer if Biden wins. Only a small percentage of cons would take to the streets compared to the leftists. But I could definitely see a disregard for Federal authority in rural America. Wouldn't surprise me to see midwestern and southern areas start to pass "unconstitutional" laws for things like school prayer 

Edited October 13, 2020 by Adam

[Taylor]

16 minutes ago, Adam said:

Amazing how impactful having two thoughtful parents can be on a child's life. Too bad a large portion of the population would consider it racist to make that correlation or advocate for the nuclear family as a solution to societal problems.

The reality is that not every family is a nuclear family, and while divorce or separation is often the fault of both parents, in many cases there are other factors that leave certain parents (usually single mothers) in a vulnerable and tough position.

Yes, having two loving parents is an ideal scenario, but for the families that don't have that, what should we do? Thumb our noses at them and say, "Too bad, it's your fault you're a single mother."

The "racist" thing has to do with how young black men are unfairly treated in our criminal justice system, resulting in broken homes in the black community. Most of the people here don't believe that's true, and instead blame black people for all their problems. But whatever. The research and statistics are there. 

If we all stopped and listened to one another's stories, I think we'd have a lot more empathy for people who have different struggles than we do.

[Taylor]

By the way, if there's a choice between a loving non-nuclear family and a non-loving, abusive nuclear family, the kids are better off in the loving single-parent household. So the nuclear family prescription can be detrimental if kids are forced to live with a parent who beats them physically or emotionally.

It's a very complicated scenario. Having grown up in a nuclear family, I recognize that I benefitted from it. But I have loving parents who never abused me.

[gotbeer]

35 minutes ago, Spin Rate said:

Do you think they're intentionally fraudulent or just that polling doesn't work?

Polling was spot-on for the 2018 midterms.

I think there is a big difference between midterms and a national election for president.  Midterms if person a gets more votes than person b, they win.  So polling just counts how many votes person a and person b gets.  Straight forward, counting a district and the highest vote wins.

National election.  Popular vote is going to be heavy in Bidens favor because you have Calolfornia and New Dork's immense population in his favor.  Biden could get every single vote in those 2 states or win those states by 1 vote, and the results would be the same number of electoral college votes.  

It'll really come down to the battleground states, and at that point, in this climate, polling becomes more of a science more than just a count as 2016 showed. 

So polling works.  But in some cases, it's not as easy as asking people who they are voting for.  

[Adam]

1 minute ago, Spin Rate said:

The reality is that not every family is a nuclear family, and while divorce or separation is often the fault of both parents, in many cases there are other factors that leave certain parents (usually single mothers) in a vulnerable and tough position.

Yes, having two loving parents is an ideal scenario, but for the families that don't have that, what should we do? Thumb our noses at them and say, "Too bad, it's your fault you're a single mother."

The "racist" thing has to do with how young black men are unfairly treated in our criminal justice system, resulting in broken homes in the black community. Most of the people here don't believe that's true, and instead blame black people for all their problems. But whatever. The research and statistics are there. 

If we all stopped and listened to one another's stories, I think we'd have a lot more empathy for people who have different struggles than we do.

I'm sure there are plenty of unempathetic people, but I think more often than not, there isn't a disagreement based on whether empathy is warranted, but primarily on solutions. The argument as to which is morally correct - forcing redistribution of wealth and resources on the population by whatever means (democratic or other) or allowing free people to decide solely on how to allocate their individual resources and allowing that everyone take responsibility for themselves, isn't winnable in the context of a two party American political system. In addition to, and perhaps more so than personal experiences, one's positions on these things are largely determined by personality type, which is already cemented by the time a person reaches a point in his life when he has any influence. 

[gotbeer]

18 minutes ago, Adam said:

This is gonna be a fun next couple of years. We're probably going to be safer if Biden wins. Only a small percentage of cons would take to the streets compared to the leftists. But I could definitely see a disregard for Federal authority in rural America. Wouldn't surprise me to see midwestern and southern areas start to pass "unconstitutional" laws for things like school prayer 

I disagree.  I think if Biden wins, these leftists movements will become even more bolder on the streets and pushing their agenda's even more because now the mob mentality has a sympathetic ear.

[Adam]

6 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

I disagree.  I think if Biden wins, these leftists movements will become even more bolder on the streets and pushing their agenda's even more because now the mob mentality has a sympathetic ear.

I don't know. Those activist types (who vote establishment democrats) are pretty naive. They'll get lip service and an empathetic ear for their life choices and they'll be fine.

Edited October 13, 2020 by Adam

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

The portion of the population living on compounds or walking around armed to the teeth trying to scare people isn't much different than it was a decade ago they've just become more vocal and visible for multiple reasons.  I think most people just want to live their lives and be left alone and will do that as long as they're able to.  If people on either side try dragging those who want no part of it into it it's going to backfire spectacularly.

[Adam]

21 minutes ago, calscuf said:

You don’t think the “we’re the ones with the guns” crowd is going to be problematic if Biden wins?

No

[m0nkey]

I love Bumpy

[Amazing Larry]

25 minutes ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

The portion of the population living on compounds or walking around armed to the teeth trying to scare people isn't much different than it was a decade ago they've just become more vocal and visible for multiple reasons.  I think most people just want to live their lives and be left alone and will do that as long as they're able to.  If people on either side try dragging those who want no part of it into it it's going to backfire spectacularly.

That's why it's been confined to the inner cities and hasn't crept into the suburbs on a regular basis.

[Don]

40 minutes ago, calscuf said:

You don’t think the “we’re the ones with the guns” crowd is going to be problematic if Biden wins?

The massive convoy of pickups and the deuce and a half parading through town here this last weekend seemed to at least be suggesting that.

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

7 minutes ago, Lhalo said:

That's why it's been confined to the inner cities and hasn't crept into the suburbs on a regular basis.

Agreed whether it's been intentional or not.  Kind of telling where elected officials seem to allow it to go on.  I did see a brief video about a week ago of something that spilled into the suburbs I believe in Wisconsin but I don't think it lasted long.  If it does I can see it ending with a home owner defending their property, a bunch of people on the news saying so and so was a good person and didn't really threaten the home owner and most of the country won't buy it and will be pushed the other direction.  If you want to destroy your own community and wonder why no one rebuilds or not to the scale before which is what happened after the 92 riots by all means go ahead but don't drag people who want no part of it into it.