AngelsWin.com Today: 2019-2020 Off-Season Starting Pitcher Trade Series

[AngelsWin.com]

By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer

Ever since the Angels missed out on Cole, Strasburg, and Wheeler (not to mention Keuchel, Ryu, and Bumgarner), some Angels fans have been in panic mode, worried about what feels, to them, like a half-season of accomplishment (Rendon, Bundy, and Teheran), since we have not acquired a front-line starter yet.

In the 2020 Angelswin.com Primer Series: Rotation, I advocated for a Cole signing as I felt it was the best application of resources in the free agent market to acquire a bonafide ace starter to be the tip of the spear in the Angels rotation.

Unfortunately, like many of the top pitchers available, Cole seemingly was always going to go to another team, in his case the Yankees. The same held true for Strasburg, Wheeler, and Bumgarner, who signed with the Nationals, Phillies, and Diamondbacks, respectively, specifically because they wanted to play and live in those cities. Really the Angels had no real chance to sign any of them without massively overspending. Letting them go and shifting momentary focus was the right thing to do for the health and competitiveness of the franchise.

As disappointing as it was, losing out on many of the top free agent starting pitchers, there were always just as many starters available in trade, albeit they may not be as elite as Gerrit or Stephen were. Improvement can come from many different sources and since we have missed out on the best targets, available in free agency, it is now time to turn to the trade market instead.

Over the next few weeks, until the Angels acquire at least one more starting pitcher, we, here at Angelswin.com, would like to present a series of articles on prospective rotation targets in the trade market. To be clear, once the Halos have brought in a front-line starter, this series will abruptly stop as there will be no further need to continue publishing the individual articles in all likelihood.

Here is a list of starting pitchers that we will discuss in this series, in no particular order:

• Nathan Eovaldi
• Matt Boyd
• Tyler Mahle
• Carlos Martinez
• David Price
• Marcus Stroman
• Eduardo Rodriguez
• Chris Archer
• Jose Urena
• Domingo German
• Joe Musgrove
• Carlos Carrasco
• Seth Lugo
• Michael Fulmer
• Jon Gray
• Mike Clevinger
• Josh Hader

 

Most of these pitchers throw in the mid-90's velocity range or they have strong pedigrees in terms of potential or actual performance. Some of them are currently throwing as relievers but were starters as recently as 2017-2018. All of them have interesting characteristics that can make them either front-line rotation candidates or at least give strong performances on a consistent basis, to help the Halos win ballgames. Some of them have a very steep price that the Angels are unlikely to pay, but could if they are willing to sacrifice good players and/or prospects. Additionally, some are much more likelier targets than others, based on injury risk and other value-added factors. Finally, this is not a complete list so the author will reserve the right to add a name or two if needed, if we even get that much further into the post-season without trading for another starter.

One more note, the final date to exchange arbitration numbers is approaching on January 10th. Teams and arbitration-eligible players must exchange salary figures for what they believe the player in question should be paid for the 2020 season. If a salary cannot be agreed upon prior to that date, it will go to an arbitration hearing sometime over the next month or so. Teams and players can continue to negotiate after salary figures are exchanged. A lot of teams and players come to an agreement prior to the January 10th deadline.

I bring this up because there will be a lot more clarity to the trade market soon, assuming a lot of players settle their arbitration salaries prior to the date above. Additionally the third base trade market is being held up by the Kris Bryant service time grievance and the SS trade market is being postponed by the Francisco Lindor decision resulting in many other trades being put on-hold until there is greater clarity with the elite players available in trade.

This means that the trade market should, hypothetically, kick into high gear within the next couple of weeks once some players have agreed to arbitration salaries, Chicago knows whether or not they have one or two years of control over Kris, and the Indians decide whether or not they are moving Francisco to start the 2020 season.

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[Chuck]

Good stuff @ettin!

[mmc]

Josh Hader and Seth Lugo aren’t starters.

[ettin]

10 minutes ago, mymerlincat said:

Josh Hader and Seth Lugo aren’t starters.

Josh Hader was a starter before the Brewers decided to put him in the bullpen, strictly because they had other options they preferred in their rotation at that time, part way into the season:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/brewers-call-up-top-prospect-josh-hader-who-could-be-their-bullpen-chris-sale/

Seth Lugo went to the bullpen because of his partially torn UCL and needed, at that time, to reduce his workload:

https://www.si.com/mlb/mets/news/seth-lugo-discusses-his-spot-in-mets-starting-rotation

Both could return to being starters and, in fact, Lugo WANTS to be, and these are his words, an "ace" for the Mets or another team in baseball.

You should probably stick to your timely AW.com board reporting and leave the research to others.

[UndertheHalo]

Thanks for this @ettin looking forward to it. 

[Lou]

great job, @ettin.

you are criminally underpaid

[Angel Oracle]

Seth Lugo could be intriguing.

Even though mainly relieving, he’s pitched 181 innings over the past 2 years, and could potentially be stretched to approaching 162 innings in 2020.

[Lou]

you forgot JA Happ. 

[Angel Oracle]

3 minutes ago, Lou said:

you forgot JA Happ. 

If you sign him, have to also sign Sandy Koufax.

[ettin]

56 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Seth Lugo could be intriguing.

Even though mainly relieving, he’s pitched 181 innings over the past 2 years, and could potentially be stretched to approaching 162 innings in 2020.

He is very intriguing to me, particularly since the Mets just signed Wacha and someone else I can't remember off the top of my head to be in their rotation. Supposedly Lugo is not happy about that either which really leads me to believe he is going to be traded probably.

38 minutes ago, Lou said:

you forgot JA Happ. 

No. No I did not.  Nobody wants to pay that "Bill".

Happ is not terrible but he is not exciting at all either. And f*ck the Yankees.

[Inside Pitch]

12 minutes ago, ettin said:

He is very intriguing to me, particularly since the Mets just signed Wacha and someone else I can't remember off the top of my head to be in their rotation

Porcello.   

They go DeGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman, Matz, Porcello, and Wacha....

So he's been pushed further away from a SP spot.

[hangin n wangin]

Nothing against Lugo as a player, but he seems like one of those guys who just needs to accept his role as a reliever and run with it. He hasn’t started many career games, but the year he started the most (18) he posted a 4.71 ERA. He’s most likely a 4 + ERA pitcher as a starter, which is fine, but I think people need to temper expectations if they expect him to be the mid 2 ERA or even 3 ERA guy he has shown he can be as a reliever. He has gone on the record saying he wants to be a starter so we will see if someone gives him the chance.

[ettin]

29 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Nothing against Lugo as a player, but he seems like one of those guys who just needs to accept his role as a reliever and run with it. He hasn’t started many career games, but the year he started the most (18) he posted a 4.71 ERA. He’s most likely a 4 + ERA pitcher as a starter, which is fine, but I think people need to temper expectations if they expect him to be the mid 2 ERA or even 3 ERA guy he has shown he can be as a reliever. He has gone on the record saying he wants to be a starter so we will see if someone gives him the chance.

As with everything the devil is in the details with Seth. I don't expect him to become a mid-2 ERA guy but there is a skill set and potential for improvement which I will talk about once we get to his write-up that I think might change your mind or at least give you some hope for more than a 4+ ERA guy.