Blowback on the pitching market?

[tchula]

Do you think that Boras achieving such inflated contracts for his top end clients, it will hurt the bottom line of his middle tier clients?  The amount of organizations left who need starters (and also have the cap space) has dwindled extensively, so there are less actors to bid against each other.  In addition, teams have more leverage with trades.  After all, there was no quality of player to the likes of Rendon, Cole, or Strausburg on the trade market.  But, considering guys like Boyd, Kluber, Ray, and Darvish have all been floated out there they are arguably just as good if not better than what's left.   

[Stradling]

No, because only 3 teams went bat shit crazy with contracts, 4 if you include the Wheeler deal. If you need an arm you’ll either pay market price for Ryu, Bum or Keuchel or you’ll wait the market out for guys like Miley.  To me what hurts the market and the teams more is paying Roark 2 years and $24 million.   If he’s “worth” $12 million then Keuchel and Bum are $20 million and Ryu $25 million, at least. 

[Jay]

No, the inflated market will benefit all of Boras' clients.

[ten ocho recon scout]

You have to think boras intentionally staggered the order of signing as much as possible to benefit the contracts. "Wait for this guy to sign first" kind of deal.

I doubt that hurts the lower tiered guys. If anything, getting those guys signed this early means teams that thought theyd wait it out, get the lesser dudes to take smaller money now have to scramble to sign the best of the rest. Which creates another sellers market.

[UndertheHalo]

2 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

You have to think boras intentionally staggered the order of signing as much as possible to benefit the contracts. "Wait for this guy to sign first" kind of deal.

I doubt that hurts the lower tiered guys. If anything, getting those guys signed this early means teams that thought theyd wait it out, get the lesser dudes to take smaller money now have to scramble to sign the best of the rest. Which creates another sellers market.

Boras absolutely did this.  It only makes sense.

[Docwaukee]

there has never really been a problem with finding homes for the first tier guys in any market.  Teams have always been willing to pay record prices for premier players.  It used to be more of a linear drop to the next level and then to the third tier but we've seen in recent years that it's really not.  There has been a steep drop to the second tier and then it flattens out when you get to the bottom tier.  It flattens out at the bottom because those are short term deals and more teams are involved.  

we've seen some strong mid tier contracts so far but mostly on the position player side in guys like Grandal and Moustakas.  I still think teams are going to pay attention to the metrics in making their decisions for that second tier pitching market on guys like Bum, Ryu and Keuchel.  I think that's why things have slowed down a fair amount now that the top tier is set.  

There are still teams with considerable pitching needs but you have to look at who's left to spend money.  The entire AL and NL east isn't likely to do so.  Of the central teams, the Cards could make a play as could the Twins and White Sox but no one else is likely to spend in that crew unless the Reds surprise.  And even if a team like the Cards spend some money, it's not going to be an overpay.  The padres could be in but they are more likely to trade.  The Dogs could also spend but I'm not getting the sense that they see value in that, and they are all about value.  I thought the Rangers would spend some but they've showed way more restraint than I expected.  

So I see the players for that second tier pitching being the Twins, Cards, Angels, Dogs and maybe the White Sox and Reds.  It's not a huge group. 

There seemed to be some momentum for someone like Madbum to get 100m but I don't think that's gonna happen.  I think we'll see a bit of a lag now whole some potential trades get sorted out and when that settles, then we'll see that next tier sign.  

I know we've touched on this before, but having Pineda or Gibson in our back pocket right now would be great.  The Roark deal feel like a bit of an outlier to me relative to those.  I don't have an issue with the Anderson, Perez, Wacha or Porcello deals as well.  I would have taken any of them.  

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

there has never really been a problem with finding homes for the first tier guys in any market.  Teams have always been willing to pay record prices for premier players.  It used to be more of a linear drop to the next level and then to the third tier but we've seen in recent years that it's really not.  There has been a steep drop to the second tier and then it flattens out when you get to the bottom tier.  It flattens out at the bottom because those are short term deals and more teams are involved.  

we've seen some strong mid tier contracts so far but mostly on the position player side in guys like Grandal and Moustakas.  I still think teams are going to pay attention to the metrics in making their decisions for that second tier pitching market on guys like Bum, Ryu and Keuchel.  I think that's why things have slowed down a fair amount now that the top tier is set.  

There are still teams with considerable pitching needs but you have to look at who's left to spend money.  The entire AL and NL east isn't likely to do so.  Of the central teams, the Cards could make a play as could the Twins and White Sox but no one else is likely to spend in that crew unless the Reds surprise.  And even if a team like the Cards spend some money, it's not going to be an overpay.  The padres could be in but they are more likely to trade.  The Dogs could also spend but I'm not getting the sense that they see value in that, and they are all about value.  I thought the Rangers would spend some but they've showed way more restraint than I expected.  

So I see the players for that second tier pitching being the Twins, Cards, Angels, Dogs and maybe the White Sox and Reds.  It's not a huge group. 

There seemed to be some momentum for someone like Madbum to get 100m but I don't think that's gonna happen.  I think we'll see a bit of a lag now whole some potential trades get sorted out and when that settles, then we'll see that next tier sign.  

I know we've touched on this before, but having Pineda or Gibson in our back pocket right now would be great.  The Roark deal feel like a bit of an outlier to me relative to those.  I don't have an issue with the Anderson, Perez, Wacha or Porcello deals as well.  I would have taken any of them.  

 

I think it's a good bet that one or two arms are going to lose out on the game of musical chairs that's being played right now and are going to have to sign for cheap. Unfortunately for us, if we play that game we aren't going to get to choose who that arm is.

[Lou]

and if you are a World Series contender, you pay $324 million 

[Inside Pitch]

22 hours ago, tchula said:

Do you think that Boras achieving such inflated contracts for his top end clients, it will hurt the bottom line of his middle tier clients?  The amount of organizations left who need starters (and also have the cap space) has dwindled extensively, so there are less actors to bid against each other.  In addition, teams have more leverage with trades.  After all, there was no quality of player to the likes of Rendon, Cole, or Strausburg on the trade market.  But, considering guys like Boyd, Kluber, Ray, and Darvish have all been floated out there they are arguably just as good if not better than what's left.   

I think it may have slowed things up a little for the remaining FAs to an extent -- some of those mid tier guys may end up holding out for more based on how the top of the FA class pulled in the money it did.  It will be interesting to see what this market does to the lower end guys.  I think there may be some possible volatility at the bottom.

 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

And to the losers get the 2nd and 3rd tier pitchers..

 

In Borass mind.   

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

7 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

And to the losers get the 2nd and 3rd tier pitchers..

 

In Borass mind.   

I hope we sign a 2nd tier pitcher and soon. This year deals are happening fast unlike last year.

Edited December 15, 2019 by Ace-Of-Diamonds